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Motherson Sumi Systems Companyname RESULT UPDATE MOTHERSON SUMI SMP to drive margin recovery in FY21 SYSTEMS India Equity Research| Automobiles COMPANYNAME Motherson Sumi’s (MSS) Q2FY20 EBITDA at INR13.2bn came 5% above EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS our estimate. Sustained weakness in India (fourth consecutive quarter of Absolute Rating BUY revenue decline) was offset by a strong performance in the global Rating Relative to Sector Outperform business, driven by SMP and PKC. Ramp up of the Keskemet plant Risk Rating Relative to Sector High remains on track, but Tuscaloosa continues to be troubled by lack of Sector Relative to Market Overweight skilled man power. We, however, believe that the worst is now behind and sustained ramp up of the three new plants (EUR1bn revenue at full capacity) is likely to be margin accretive. Management’s focus on higher MARKET DATA (R: MOSS.BO, B: MSS IN) CMP : INR 134 content per vehicle, instead of mere revenue growth, is also encouraging. Target Price : INR 154 Hence, we revise up FY20/21E EPS up 11.5/32.2%. Maintain ‘BUY’ with SOTP-based revised TP of INR154 (INR116 earlier). 52-week range (INR) : 179 / 91 Share in issue (mn) : 3,157.7 M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 424 / 8,113 Q2FY20: SMP and PKC drive revenue Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 9,355.2 Consolidated revenue of INR159bn (up 5.4% YoY) came in line with our estimate as a 10% YoY increase in global revenue at INR141bn offset weakness in the India SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) business—revenue down 20% YoY. SMP continues to be a key driver of performance Current Q1FY20 Q4FY19 with revenue growing 20% YoY and EBITDA margin of 4.2% (up 150bps QoQ). PKC Promoters * 61.7 61.7 61.7 sustained strong performance —revenue up 12% YoY and EBITDA jumped 300bps YoY MF's, FI's & BK’s 13.5 11.1 9.7 to 11.7%. Consolidated PAT of INR3.8bn was, however, 18% below our estimate due to FII's 14.9 16.4 18.1 significantly higher interest and D&A. Others 9.8 10.8 10.4 * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) SMP margin recovery in FY21; India outlook subdued Though India business continues to face macro headwinds, we expect it to benefit from the BS VI transition (rise in content). Besides that, as the three new plants ramp up and PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) cost control measures gather pace in SMP, margin and ROCE will get a boost in FY21. Stock Nifty EW Auto Index Also, with the capex cycle behind, we expect FCF to improve even in a weak demand 1 month 31.8 7.0 11.5 environment. 3 months 31.4 7.9 16.6 12 months (24.6) 12.4 (11.4) Outlook and valuation: Franchise remains strong; maintain ‘BUY’ We like MSS’ strong India franchise as well as the SMR business. We estimate FY19–21 EPS CAGR of 28%. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with TP of INR154 (valuing India business at 25x, SMR/SMP/PKC at 14x March 2021E PE). The stock is trading at 21.3/15.9x FY20/21E PE. Financials (INR mn) Chirag Shah Year to March Q2FY20 Q2FY19 % Chg Q1FY20 % Chg FY19 FY20E FY21E +91 22 6623 3367 Net revenues 159,242 151,050 5.4 167,925 (5.2) 635,229 720,357 802,349 [email protected] EBITDA 13,190 13,001 1.5 12,550 5.1 53,484 53,964 68,734 Adjusted Profit 3,846 3,711 3.6 3,315 16.0 16,132 19,804 26,533 Jay Mehta +91 22 4088 6072 Adjusted Diluted EPS 1.8 1.2 55.5 1.6 16.0 5.1 6.3 8.4 [email protected] Diluted P/E (x) 26.1 21.3 15.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.4 17.0 12.5 ROAE (%) 15.4 15.5 19.5 November 11, 2019 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Edelweiss Securities Limited Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Automobiles Q2FY20 conference call: Key highlights Highlights Won new orders worth EUR3.8bn in Q2FY20. No reduction / cut in new orders from customers. Most of the capex is now done. Does not expect any more green field projects. Post BS VI (India), content per vehicle in CVs will increase by double digits. M&A: Multiple moving parts, so difficult to commit a timeline. But hoping to close an acquisition in the current quarter. Valuations of potential targets look attractive in this environment. USA is now the second-largest country by revenue (after Germany). SMRPBV accounts for more than 45% of the consolidated working capital. Capex: Original FY20 guidance of INR20bn has been retained, though trying to lower the actual spend. SMR/SMP SMRC remains profitable. Working to improve profitability of green-field plants. Keskemet (Hungary) is ahead of Tuscaloosa (Alabama) in terms of utilisation and expects it to breakeven soon. Management team at Hungary is more mature and stable compared to Alabama. Man- power problems are also not significant in Hungary. Tuscaloosa update 1. Primary focus is to ensure supply that OEM requires, profitability improvement will come in focus after that. That said, it is not that the company is not taking measures to improve profitability. 2. Now producing 1,000 cars a day versus 600 cars at the end of previous quarter. Working to improve production capacity further to achieve breakeven. Will then focus on profitability. 3. Man power problems persist at Tuscaloosa. Shortage of skilled man-power still persists and MSS will need to hire many more people than originally estimated. 4. The company is working with the government and training existing employees to overcome this challenge. However, resolution of this problem is taking longer than expected. 5. By March, will make a much bigger push towards profitability, once ongoing orders are fulfilled. 6. Next quarter supply to Diamler is expected to grow in double digits QoQ. Utilisation – Running Tuscaloosa plant for six days a week with one day of maintenance. As utilisation/efficiency improves, will be able to run on five days a week. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Motherson Sumi Systems SMRPBV Order book continues to remain strong with orders which have yet to commence. Rolling stock business (in PKC) Operational performance of this business has improved as they imbibe good practices from the existing group and as China has stabilised. Already has a plant at Serbia, which the company is expanding. Setting up a new plant in UAE. Table 1: SOTP valuation March 2021e EPS Target Multiple (PE) Value per share India 2.8 25.0 70 SMR 1.0 14.0 13 SMP 1.6 14.0 22 PKC 2.2 14.0 30 Others 0.9 20.0 18 Total 8.4 18.3 154 Source: Edelweiss research 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Automobiles Table 2: Key assumptions (INR mn) FY19 % YoY FY20E % YoY FY21E % YoY Net Sales 6,35,229 12.8 7,20,357 13.4 8,02,349 11.4 MSS 75,813 1.7 70,933 (6.4) 79,641 12.3 SMR 1,27,807 7.5 1,30,790 2.3 1,35,993 4.0 SMP 2,82,394 8.4 3,72,832 32.0 4,32,562 16.0 PKC 93,745 18.9 1,06,042 13.1 1,12,405 6.0 Others 55,470 84.5 39,760 (28.3) 41,748 5.0 EBITDA 53,484 25.4 53,964 0.9 68,734 27.4 MSS 12,728 (8.0) 11,374 (10.6) 13,814 21.5 SMR 14,507 5.4 13,554 (6.6) 13,961 3.0 SMP 12,646 (18.6) 12,481 (1.3) 23,922 91.7 PKC 8,292 51.0 12,167 46.7 13,489 10.9 Others 5,311 (189.4) 4,387 (17.4) 3,549 (19.1) Margin (%) 8.4 7.5 8.6 MSS 16.8 16.0 17.3 SMR 11.4 10.4 10.3 SMP 4.5 3.3 5.5 PKC 8.8 11.5 12.0 Others 9.6 11.0 8.5 APAT 16,132 (6.1) 19,804 22.8 26,533 34.0 MSS 8,138 (7.4) 7,186 (11.7) 8,877 23.5 SMR 3,577 4.2 3,031 (15.3) 3,028 (0.1) SMP 1,366 (51.2) 1,135 (16.9) 4,898 331.4 PKC 3,602 34.0 6,306 75.1 6,815 8.1 Others -552 3.0 2,146 (488.9) 2,915 35.8 EPS 5.1 (6.1) 6.3 22.8 8.4 34.0 MSS 2.6 (7.4) 2.3 (11.7) 2.8 23.5 SMR 1.1 4.2 1.0 (15.3) 1.0 (0.1) SMP 0.4 (51.2) 0.4 (16.9) 1.6 331.4 PKC 1.1 34.0 2.0 75.1 2.2 8.1 Others (0.2) 3.0 0.7 (488.9) 0.9 35.8 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited 450 23.0 1,000 45.0 410 17.0 800 33.0 370 11.0 600 21.0 400 9.0 YoY) (% (% YoY) (% 330 5.0 Mn) (Euro (Euro Mn) (Euro 200 (3.0) 290 (1.0) 0 (15.0) 250 (7.0) Chart revenue3: PKC and trend margins Chart 1: 17 18 19 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 20 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 2 3 4 1 3 4 1 2 4 2 3 1 2 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1FY19 Q Q Q Q 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4FY19 Q Q S SMR revenues YoY change (RHS) SMP revenues YoY change (RHS) MR revenue growth 350 12.0 25,000 100.0 280 10.8 20,000 75.0 trend 210 9.6 15,000 50.0 (%) 140 8.4 YoY) (% 5 (Euro Mn) (Euro 10,000 25.0 (INR mn) (INR Chart 70 7.2 5,000 0.0 5 : 0 6.0 SMR/SMP margin trend 0 (25.0) 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 18 17 17 18 19 19 20 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 1 1 3 3 1 3 1 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q PKC revenues EBITDA margin India YoY Chart 4: Dom Chart 2: 15.0 SMP revenue 12.0 estic revenue growth trend 9.0 Source: Company reports, Edelweiss research Source: CompanyEdelweiss reports, growth trend 6.0 Su Motherson Edelweiss Securities Limited Securities Edelweiss EBITDA Margin (%) Margin EBITDA 3.0 0.0 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 17 20 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY mi Systems mi 1 2 4 1 2 3 4 2 3 4 1 3 2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1FY19 Q SMP SMR Automobiles Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q2FY20 Q2FY19 % change Q1FY20 % change YTD20 FY20E FY21E Net revenues 159,242 151,050 5.4 167,925 (5.2) 327,167 720,357 802,349 Raw material costs 91,300 87,458 4.4 96,586 (5.5) 187,886 437,983 477,260 Staff costs 36,311 32,775 10.8 39,171 (7.3) 75,482 151,275 168,493 Other expenses 18,440 17,817 3.5 19,619 (6.0) 38,059 77,135 87,862 EBITDA 13,190 13,001 1.5 12,550 5.1 25,740 53,964 68,734 Depreciation 5,686 3,984 42.7 5,522 3.0 11,208 20,208 21,388 EBIT 7,504 9,017 (16.8) 7,028 6.8 14,532 33,756 47,347 Interest 1,254 1,315 (4.7) 1,559 (19.6) 2,813 4,232 4,232 Other income 825 463 78.1 547 50.7 1,373
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