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Eicher Motors Techno Funda Pick SiScrip IDiI-Direct Co de AiAction Target UidUpside Maruti Suzuki MARUTI Buy in the range of 5770-5910 6640.00 14% Eicher Motors EICMOT Buy in the range of 23300-23600 27450.00 17% Time Frame: 6 Months Research Analysts Dharmesh Shah [email protected] Nishit Zota [email protected] January 27, 2017 Techno Funda Pick: Maruti Suzuki (MARUTI) Time Frame: 6 Months CMP: | 5885. 00 BiBuying Range: | 5770-5910 Tt|Target: | 6640. 00 UidUpside: 14% Stock Data Key technical observations Recommended Price 5770-5910 The share price of Maruti has remained in a secular uptrend since 2014 as it continues to form higher peak and higher Price Target 6570 trough in all time frame and has consistently generated superior returns for investors over the long term. Within this structural bull run, the stock has undergone periodic phases of consolidation providing fresh entry opportunities for 52 Week High 5974 medium term players to ride the uptrend. We believe the consolidation over the last three months has approached 52 Week Low 3193 maturity and the stock provides a good entry opportunity for medium term investors. 50 days EMA 5474 The stock rebounded from a major support area ... 200 days EMA 4995 The stock after hitting a life-time high of | 5974 in the first week of November 2016 has entered a corrective 52 Week EMA 4888 consolidation phase to work off the excesses post the breakout rally from March 2016 low of | 3185 to the life-time *Recommendation given on i-click to gain on January high of 5974. It is a healthy phenomenon as stock forms a higher base before continuing its larger up move. The 27, 2017 at 11:23 hrs corrective decline got arrested ppyrecisely near the important support area of | 4800, which is the confluence of the Stock price vs. BSE Sensex following technical observations : 6,200 30,000 ¾ The medium term rising trendline support joining major lows since March 2016 currently placed at 5150 levels 5,700 ¾ 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2016 rally placed at | 4860 levels 28,000 5,200 ¾ The long term 52 weeks EMA currently placed at | 4880 levels 4,700 26,000 ¾ The high of 2015 placed at | 4776 levels has reversed its role and acting as major support for the stock as can be 4,200 seen in the adjacent chart. This indicates the Change of Polarity principle, which says that a significant resistance 24,000 3,700 once taken out, reverses its roleand acts as support for future price action 3,200 22,000 Breakout from Bullish Flag pattern signals continuation of uptrend..... The stock witnessed a sharp rebound in the last two months from the support area of | 4800. The sharp up move and Jul-16 Oct-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Mar-16 Aug-16 the sideways consolidation of the last two weeks has taken the pictorial shape of a bullish Flag pattern. A Flag May-16 Maruti BSESensex formation is a bullish continuation pattern, which marks a temporary pause in momentum after a strong rally as the bull takes a breather before continuance of the uptrend. The strong up move in the current week has seen the stock Price performance in last four years register a resolute breakout from the Flag pattern, thus providing a fresh entry opportunity for medium term investors 89% Momentum indicators validate underlying positive trend 70% 62% The weekly MACD (E-12/26/9) has generated a buy signal moving above its nine period’s average indicating strength 39% and augurs well for continuance of bullish momentum over medium term 18% 20% 15% Conclusion Based on the above technical parameters we believe the stock has resumed upward momentum and is set to extend -30% the up move towards | 6640 in the medium term as it is the measuring implication of the breakout from the Flag 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 pattern bibeing price paritywith theprevious up move from | 4765 to 5795 (5795-4765=1030 poit)ints) adde d to the ltlast Year two weeks low of | 5610 (5610+1030=6640). Source: Bloomberg, BSE, ICICIdirect.com Research 2 Techno Funda Pick: Maruti Suzuki (MARUTI) – Weekly Bar Chart Measuring implication of Bullish Flag breakout offers fresh entry opportunity for medium the Flag breakout @ 6630 term investors to ride the next up move in the stock 5974 4776 4765 Research Analyst Dharmesh Shah The stock in strong uptrend recently [email protected] rebounded taking support at the confluence of: 3185 - 52 weeks EMA Nishit Zota -The medium term rising trendline support [email protected] -The 38.2% retracement of the 2016 rally Weekly MACD has generated a buy signal indicating inherent strength and augurs well for the stock going forward Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 3 Techno Funda Pick: Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI) Fundamental View Stock Data Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) is India’s largest passenger vehicle manufacturer with a market share of 46% & annual sales of 14.3 lakh units as on FY16. Maruti has a combined production capacity of 1.4 million vehicles per annum at its Particular Amount Gurgaon and Manesar plants. The company has a wide dealership network of 1,619dealersacrossIndia.Ithasa Market Capitalization (| Crore) | 178227.2 Crore strong presence in the small car segment with well recognized models such as Alto, Swift, Wagon R & Celerio. Total Debt (FY16) (| Crore) | 77.4 Crore Cash and Investments (FY16) (| Crore) | 912.1 Crore Plenty of catalysts for long term growth EV (| Crore) | 177392.5 Crore 52 week H/L (|) 5972 / 3202 MSIL has plenty of catalyst for its long term growth such as 1) The Indian PV segment will have positive impact of Equity capital (| crore) | 151 Crore Seventh Pay Commission which is likely to result in incremental growth of ~16% on YoY over the next two years. We believe MSIL will be the biggest beneficiary, as it has >50% market share in the first-time buyer segment & a Face value (|) | 5 new model pipeline. 2) The demonetization of currency will also have least impact on passenger vehicle space (PV) as ~80% of vehicles are financed & cash transactions are minimal. Further MSIL volumes would be protected as the company has extended waiting period for most of its models. 3) MSIL has been first mover in terms of adding more Key Metrics content in car (airbags /ABS in base models), launched ‘smart hybrids’ variants (expected to launch the same in petrol fuel, which will make the cars competitively priced) & automatic transmission option in its existing & newer FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E models. 4) More content per car at aggressive pricing is creating a pull-strategy favouring MSIL. MSIL’s strong P/E (x) 48.0 39.0 22.6 19.2 market share gain in the premium segment (market share in cars >8 lakh at ~25% in H1FY17 vs. ~6% in FY15) EV/EBITDA (x) 26.6 19.8 15.9 13.0 makes it a strong contender to benefit from premiumization. Thus we expect MSIL to register strong volume & P/BV (x) 7.5 6.6 5.3 4.4 revenue CAGR of 12% & 16% over FY16-18E. RoNW (%) 15.7 16.9 23.6 22.8 RoCE (%) 17.3 22.7 25.1 24.9 Strong margins to sustain We expect the company to maintain strong margins of 16% for FY17E, FY18E on the back of 1) reduced exposure Financial Highlights to JPY due to increased exports to Japan and royalty payment on new products in rupee, 2) lower discounts led by better product mix & overall volume recovery 3) savings in logistics cost post commissioning of Gujarat Plant, 4) positive operating leverage led by strong demand and 5) a better product mix. | Crore FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales 48,606 56,350 67,633 81,911 EBITDA 6,606 8,979 11,041 13,396 Export to have larger growth ;post Suzuki’s Gujarat plant! Net Profit 37113 ,711 4 , 571 78757 ,875 92899 ,289 SkiSuzuki isaiiiming to let MSIL grow as a low-cost bdbrand to target markets such as Afr ica. MSIL aldlreadycontributes EPS (|) 122.9 151.3 260.7 307.5 ~45% to Suzuki’s global profits. As such, Suzuki’s strategy to make MSIL its global export hub for low priced products is logical. At present, exports form ~9% of total sales for MSIL. However this is gradually expected to pick up going forward, on the commissioning of Gujarat plant which is expected in Q4FY17. Entering robust growth phase In the past seven years, MSIL’s average one-year forward multiple was 16x with peak multiple of 27x. We believe strong earning visibility (revise revenue, earning estimate by 1%, 10% for FY18E considering strong demand Source: Company, ICICIdriect.com Research outlook), should command premium valuation. Hence, we remain positive on the stock. 4 Techno Funda Pick: Eicher Motors (EICMOT) Time Frame: 6 Months CMP: | 23400. 00 BiBuying Range: | 23300-23600 Tt|Target: | 27450. 00 UidUpside: 17% Stock Data Key technical observations Recommended Price 23200-23600 Eicher Motors, the makers of commercial vehicles and the iconic Royal Enfield motorcycle has been in a secular Price Target 27450 uptrend consistently forming higher highs and higher lows on the long term price charts. The stock has rewarded investors with superior returns over the long term horizon. Within the structural uptrend, the stock has witnessed 52 Week High 26641. 3 periodic phases of secondary correction that have provided fresh entry opportunities for investors to ride the secular 52 Week Low 15844.1 up move.
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