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Motherson Sumi Systems Companyname RESULT UPDATE MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTE MS Strong quarter; looking beyond FY21 India Equity Research| Automobiles COMPANYNAME Motherson Sumi’s (MSS) Q4FY20 EBITDA at INR13.9bn surpassed our and EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS consensus estimates ~40% driven by sharp gross margin improvement Absolute Rating BUY and overall sharpened cost focus. While near-term outlook remains hazy, Rating Relative to Sector Outperform the COMPANYNAME company is well placed to benefit from: 1) Faster-than-expected Risk Rating Relative to Sector High recovery in developed markets. 2) Cost reduction initiatives as volumes Sector Relative to Market Overweight recovers. 3) Strong FCF generation as the peak capex cycle is behind. Management is targeting USD33-35bn revenue over the next five years, which includes ~25% contribution from non-automobile segments MARKET DATA (R: MOSS.BO, B: MSS IN) (aerospace, defence, healthcare, logistics, etc). However, given the near- CMP : INR 102 Target Price : INR 117 term uncertainties, we are adjusting our FY21/22E EPS -40%/+3%. 52-week range (INR) : 151 / 49 Maintain ‘BUY’ with revised TP of INR117 (INR96 earlier) as we roll over Share in issue (mn) : 3,157.7 valuations to FY22E. M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 322 / 8,113 Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 11,087.5 Q4FY20: Strong operating performance after long Consolidated revenue of INR151bn (down 12.0% YoY) was ~5% below our estimate. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) However, strong improvement in gross margin (up 240bps YoY) due to product mix and Current Q3FY20 Q2FY20 cost control efforts translated into EBITDA margin of 9.2% (up ~200bps YoY), ahead of Promoters * 61.7 61.7 61.7 our 6.0% estimate. SMR posted an all-time high EBITDA margin of 14%. However, MF's, FI's & BK’s 13.6 12.6 13.5 margins at SMP and PKC declined 255bps and 50bps YoY to 4.2% and 8.1%, FII's 15.5 16.4 14.9 respectively. Over the near term, we expect margin benefits due to mix improvement Others 9.2 9.3 9.8 and cost reduction efforts to sustain, offset by negative operating leverage. * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) Looking beyond FY21 PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Near-term outlook remains weak across MSS’s business lines. Management expects all its Stock Nifty EW Auto Index plants to operate at ~75% utilisation level by June 2021-end (except India). It anticipates 1 month 9.3 (1.5) 7.6 a strong bounce back in demand to pre-COVID-19 level given the robust direct and 3 months (23.1) (21.4) (17.9) indirect support by governments across regions. Highlights of the company’s next five 12 months (27.7) (23.3) (30.4) years’ plan also indicates that management’s penchant for M&A is unlikely to wane. Outlook and valuation: Strong franchise; maintain ‘BUY’ We like MSS’s strong India franchise and the steady improvement in its SMR/ SMP businesses. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with TP of INR117 (valuing India business at 25x, SMR/SMP/PKC at 14x March 2022E PE). The stock is trading at 33.7/15.0x FY20/21E PE. Financials (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY20 Q4FY19 % Chg Q3FY20 % Chg FY20 FY21E FY22E Chirag Shah +91 22 6623 3367 Net revenues 151,591 171,695 (11.7) 156,611 (3.2) 635,369 550,045 639,561 [email protected] EBITDA 13,916 12,428 12.0 12,358 12.6 52,014 36,228 57,045 Adjusted Profit 2,824 4,100 (31.1) 3,586 (21.2) 11,700 9,512 21,328 Jay Mehta +91 22 4088 6072 Adjusted Diluted EPS 1.3 1.3 3.3 1.7 (21.2) 3.7 3.0 6.8 [email protected] Diluted P/E (x) 27.4 33.7 15.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.5 20.2 14.1 ROAE (%) 8.8 7.7 15.4 June 2, 2020 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Edelweiss Securities Limited Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Automobiles Q4FY20 conference call: Key highlights Highlights Next five years’ plan (up to 2025) 1. Targeting top line of USD33-35bn. 2. Will look to further diversify the group over the next five years, leveraging technologies that have been built and developed over the years. 3. Aerospace, defence, logistics and healthcare are some of the areas being evaluated. Scaling up the IT business as well. 4. Expects 75% revenue to still be based in auto. 5. Will give a more detailed outline in by August-September. ROCE update 1. At group level is 10% (including greenfield and acquisition that have not been a part for five years). 2. Excluding greenfield and acquisitions, at group level is closer to 25%. 3. Standalone ROCE is 31%. COVID-19 update 1. In Jan-Feb, outlook was positive and the situation in plants was improving. However, COVID-19 broke out in China during and so MSS’s Chinese plants went into lockdown. 2. By Feb-March realised that even US plants would go into lockdown. So started preparing for the same. Most of its US plants, barring those making ambulances, were shut down. 3. By May end, most of the plants have restarted. 4. Project Victory (which was already in place) helped cut costs. Overarching theme of the project is to boost ROCE. The company worked to identify costs (fixed costs, capex) at unit level and set a target to lower spends and increase automation to improve efficiency. 5. As soon as lockdown was in force, got a lot of support from the government in the form of loans to make payments (in US it got the payment within a week of the lockdown. In Germany, it was within three days). Most of the aid received (almost 95%) is in the form on loans (one-three years) and not grants. 6. Most of the government support will accrue from Q1FY21. Till March, only Chinese plants were in a shutdown. 7. Teams across plants focussed on preserving cash and improving working capital. India update 1. All plants are now open and seeing some early spike in demand. 2. Nearly 15% of standalone business is exported. Seeing strong traction here, especially in Japan. Followed by that, farm equipment, 2Ws, PVs and then CV segment seeing pick up as well. 3. With confusion around BS VI now subsiding and a move to private mobility, expects a sharp pick up in vehicle demand (will be seen in Q3 & Q4FY21). 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Motherson Sumi Systems 4. Performance improvement can be attributed to increased content due to BS VI. 5. As smaller suppliers are forced to wind down, MSS could potentially benefit due to increased business. 6. MWSI: Farm equipment sector in the US (like India) is also seeing robust traction, which has helped business. Across geographies, OEMs have indicated that once the lockdown is over, they will ramp up quickly to recoup lost business. MSS does not expect any delay in payments from customers nor is it delaying payments to suppliers. Improvement in cash position: Due to overall focus on cash, results from Project Victory and lower capex intensity (lowest in past four years). Besides that, boosted cash position by tapping more liquidity lines and even raised INR10bn in the form on NCDs. Post lockdown: There is enough cash fungiblity to ensure that it can be deployed towards companies/regions where it will be needed. M&A update: While there were a lot of opportunities in Feb-March, government aid has given a new lease of life to most companies. As such, management believes opportunities in the near term (3-6 months) have dwindled. Demerger (wiring harness) update: Restructuring is broadly on track. Expects a detailed plan over the next 1-3 months (once the global demand situation stabilises). Order book: Typically 65-70% of the book are fresh orders (rest is replacement). Utilisation levels: 1. 39% of its plants are at higher that 75% levels. 2. 22% plants are at 50-75% level. 3. 7% plants are at 25-50% level. 4. <25% plants are at 10% level. 5. By end of June expects utilisation at most of its global plants to be higher than 75%. India could be lower, as number of COVID-19 cases continues to spike. Gross margin improvement Due to mix, cost reduction effort. Not due to any pricing benefits from OEM. For SMRPBV, commodity contracts are generally for the life time of the project. In case of any movement beyond a band, there is discussion with the OEM and pass through happens with a lag of even 6 months. SMR margin improvement Q4 is typically the strongest quarter (for all its businesses). Margin in the current quarter does not have any one off, but a result of improved mix, seasonality and lower costs. Not taken any price increase in the quarter. Winning orders which it had lost 5-7 years ago as well. Camera business is yet to see any major uptick. SMP Kecskemét was at EBITDA break-even level before COVID-19. 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Automobiles With the help of its customers at Tuscaloosa: 1. Cut the number of employees from 2,400 to 1,800-1,900. 2. Updated some of its feeding lines, which has also helped lower costs (due to help from Daimler). 3. Expects Tuscaloosa to be fully operational (pre COVID-19 level) in Q2FY21. With the help of customers, making best case efforts to turn Tuscaloosa profitable by FY21. Capex Difficult to quantify FY21 capex as of now, but should be lower than INR20bn.
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