Rapid Assessment Report the Impact of Drought in Red Sea State, Sudan

Rapid Assessment Report On The impact of Drought in Red Sea State, Sudan

6 April 2018

Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

Contents Page

Acronyms and abbreviations ...... 2 Assessment Highlights ...... 3 1. OVERVIEW ...... 4 2. BACKGROUND ...... 5 3. ASSESSED AREAs ...... 5 4. OBJECTIVE ...... 6 5. METHODOLOGY ...... 6 6. LIVELIHOOD PROFILE AND POPULATION ...... 7 7. RAINFALL AND KHOR BARAKA FLOODING ...... 8 8. LIVESTOCK ...... 8 8.1 Livestock body condition, milk production, movement and diseases ...... 8 8.2 Animal deaths ...... 9 8.3 Pasture ...... 9 8.4 Fodder availability and access ...... 10 8.5 Water resources for livestock ...... 10 9. CROP PRODUCTION ...... 11 9.1 Percentage of the farmers cultivated ...... 11 9.2 Planted and harvested area ...... 12 9.3 Production ...... 13 10. FOOD SECURITY ...... 13 10.1 Drought coping strategy in the affected localities ...... 13 10.2 Over view of the drought aspects in the affected localities ...... 15 10.3 Severity of Food insecurity ...... 15 11. NEEDS ...... 16 11.1 Severity of current shock and recovery ...... 16 11.2 Support being provided to the affected households...... 17 11.3 Immediate and intermediate needs ...... 17 12. RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 17

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

Acronyms and abbreviations

CFSAM Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission EWEA Early Warning Early Action FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAW Fall Army Worm FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FGD Focus Group Discussion FSTS RSS Food Security Technical Secretariat Red Sea State HAC Humanitarian Aid Commission HH Household IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification mm Millimetres NDVI Normalized difference vegetation index RSS Red Sea State WES Water Environment and Sanitation WFP World Food Programme

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

Assessment Highlights

 All four assessed localities experienced very poor rain, i.e. almost no rain during 2017-18 season. The season is characterized by very weak Khor Baraka flooding.

 In Tokar, Halaib and Suakin localities, the animal body conditions was reported as very bad, i.e. all ribs and other bones of hind limbs (dorsal site) are prominent.

 Grossly milk production per household per day is below the half of the usual milk production.

 Several cases of animal diseases have been reported in all four drought affected localities assessed. As reported by the FGD participants, around 7 to 10 animals were dying every day in Tokar Delta due to diseases and hunger.

 There is hardly any grazing land remaining in those localities. Fodder is available in the market in the affected localities. However, around 60% of the affected households in Tokar Delta and Algounb and Awlieb are not able to access to fodder from the market.

 Only 25% of the farmers in Tokar Delta cultivated in the 2017/18 season. The area cultivated under Delta Tokar flood irrigated scheme in 2017/18 was less by 70% from that of the previous year.

 Along with the decrease of the planted area by sorghum and millet in 2017/18, the harvested area also decreased significantly, i.e. 50% and 20% respectively. The drop in the total harvested area under Delta Tokar flood irrigated scheme compared to previous years was mainly due the late and low flooding Baraka khor.

 Under Tokar irrigated scheme, sorghum and millet production was only 12% and 43% of last year’s production respectively. Severe impact on crops from plant pests/diseases has been observed in Algounb and Awlieb locality where due to white fly and African worm (not FAW), 70% of the crops was damaged in Salwom village of the locality.

 In Tokar Delta, around 90% of the affected households are employing both stress and crisis livelihood strategies.

 In Tokar Delta, around 90% of the households have spent all their savings and consumed seed stock, 70% are purchasing food on credit, and 40 % are selling productive female animals.

 Tokar locality reflects the worst situation among the localities assessed, i.e. animals are dying daily, highest percentage of the households applying crisis coping strategy, and highest percentage of households who cannot access to fodder from the market.

 Considering IPC’s “phase 3 and worse” (referring to severely affected population), the number of severely affected population of the four localities assessed in the Red Sea State stands at 24,888 (4,148 HH).

 Food assistance, provision of animal feed until next season, and animal vaccination are the immediate needs of the affected households in Tokar and Algounb and Awlieb localities.

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

1. OVERVIEW

In December 2017, the drought monitoring framework of FAO Sudan was applied in Red Sea State. The monitoring results indicated signs of concerns with regard to worsening drought situation in Red Sea State and suggested to conduct a rapid assessment in order to have further insights into the drought situation. From 03 February to 08 February 2018, the rapid assessment was carried out in Tokar, Algounb and Awlieb, Halaib and Suakin localities which are considerably affected by drought in Red Sea State.

All four assessed localities experienced very poor rain, i.e. almost no rain during 2017-18 season. The season is characterized by very weak flooding. Most of the flushes of the flood was below average.

In Tokar, Halaib and Suakin localities, the animal body conditions was reported as very bad. Milk production in the drought affected villages decreased significantly at the household level (dropped to below half than usual); which significantly reduced household milk consumption. Several cases of animal diseases have been reported in all four drought affected localities assessed. The most common diseases which the animals of these localities are affected by are diarrhea and pneumonia. Due to diseases and hunger, death of animals is frequent at a significant rate in three of the four localities assessed (Tokar, Algounb and Awlieb, and Suakin). As reported by the FGD participants, around 7 to 10 animals were dying every day due to diseases and hunger in Tokar Delta. Following the rapid assessment, the Animal Resources Department of Red Sea State published a report on the toll of animal life due to diseases and hunger in these drought affected localities. According to the report, Shiaib tribe, a nomad tribe in Tokar locality reported that a significant number of animals comprising camels, sheep and donkeys were dying. There is hardly any grazing land remaining in the affected localities. For pasture, the households in these affected localities are entirely dependent on the market. Fodder is available in the market in the affected localities. However, around 60% of the affected households in Tokar Delta and Algounb and Awlieb are not able to access to fodder from the market. Although most the existing water points of these localities serve until June and few run for all through the year, the supply of water from these points, as reported by the FGD participants, is quite insufficient against the need from their livestock.

Tokar Delta is predominated by farmers and because of the very insufficient flood and almost no winter rain, only 25% of the total farmers in the Tokar Delta cultivated in this season. No farmers in four assessed localities replanted due to dry spells. However, some farmers (not more than 20%) in Algounb and Awlieb locality shifted from planting sorghum to tomato. Severe impact on crops from plant pests/diseases has been observed in Algounb and Awlieb locality. Due to white fly and African worm (not FAW), 70% of the crops was damaged in Salwom village of the locality. Although not severe, in Suakin locality, in some cases, watermelons were affected by worms. As stated by the participants in Tokar Delta during the FGD, only 10% of the land under the flooding scheme was flooded in Tokar Delta by Baraka khor. Therefore, area cultivated under Delta Tokar flood irrigated scheme in 2017/18 was far less from that of 2016. According to information provided by Tokar agriculture scheme project, the area cultivated area under Delta Tokar flood irrigated in 2017/18 was less by 70% from the previous year. According to CFSAM report 15 March 2018, in Red Sea State, compared to last year and five years average, sorghum and millet production significantly decreased in Tokar irrigated scheme. Under Tokar irrigated scheme, sorghum and millet production was only 12% and 43% of last year’s production respectively.

As found during the rapid assessment, “stress” and “crisis” strategies are being employed by the drought affected households in the four localities. In Tokar Delta, around 90% of the affected households are employing both stress and crisis livelihood strategies. In the affected localities, stress coping strategies include spending saving, selling more animals than usual and purchasing food on credit or borrowing, whereas crisis coping strategies in the affected localities include selling productive assets( female animals), consuming seed stock and decreasing expenditure on fertilizer, pesticide, fodder, animal feed, veterinary care, etc. Charcoal making in these localities apparently turned into one of their livelihood strategies which they are employing all through the year although it is also the fact that some households intensify the strategy due to drought. By December 2017, around 90% of the households in Tokar Delta have spent all their savings and consumed seed stock that was supposed to be saved for the next season. In addition, around 95% of the households in Tokar Delta have also reduced expenditures basically on fodder, animal feed and veterinary care as their income sources

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan have been extremely shrunk due to very poor harvest. As per the key findings on the drought aspects in the four localities assessed, Tokar locality reflects the worst situation, i.e. animals are dying daily, highest percentage of the households applying crisis coping strategy, and highest percentage of households who cannot access to fodder from the market.

Considering IPC’s “phase 3 and worse” (referring to severely affected population), the number of severely affected population of Red Sea State stands at 124,631 (20,771 HH) which is 8% of the total population of the Red Sea State. Accordingly, the number of severely affected population of the four localities assessed in the Red Sea State stands at 24,888 (4,148 HH). In Tokar and Algounb and Awlieb localities, the severity of drought has been realized more compared to previous crisis in last five years.

Food assistance, provision of animal feed until next season, and animal vaccination are the immediate needs of the affected households in Tokar and Algounb and Awlieb localities. As 7 to 10 animals are dying every day, immediate attention and actions are required in Tokar locality in order to protect the livestock of the affected household. Other two localities Algounb and Awlieb and Suakin should also be taken under immediate support to protect the livestock as animal deaths there are being observed on a weekly basis

2. BACKGROUND

The EWEA (Early Warning Early Action) Plan for Drought outlines the approach of FAO in Sudan to translate forecasts and early warnings into anticipatory actions in order to act before a situation has escalated into an emergency. For drought monitoring, FAO Sudan has been applying a drought monitoring framework that is comprised of a set of indicators with respective weights and thresholds. A triggering score ranging from 0 to 100% generated from the drought monitoring framework indicates the intensity of probable impact of drought on the livelihoods and food security of vulnerable agro- pastoralists households who are mostly engaged in non-mechanized rain-fed cultivation of small plots and rearing of limited numbers of small ruminants. The triggering score also links the monitoring to the implementation of specific early actions.

Under FAO’s Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) initiative, FAO Sudan has been monitoring the drought situation in Kassala and North Darfur states of Sudan since May 2017. In December 2017, FAO applied the drought monitoring framework in Red Sea State since intensified aspects of drought situation in Red Sea State had been observed. When the drought monitoring framework was applied, it resulted in 48% of the triggering score. NDVI for some areas, especially for east Tokar, was less than 30% and when it was considered, the result moved upward to 57% of the triggering score. The results indicated signs of concerns with regard to worsening drought situation and suggested to conduct a rapid assessment in the state.

Therefore, in order to have further insights into the situation, FAO Sudan conducted rapid assessments from 3 February to 08 February 2018 in Tokar, Algounb and Awlieb, Halaib, Suakin localities which seem to be considerably affected by drought in Red Sea State.

3. ASSESSED AREAS

Red Sea State Food security Technical Secretariat (FSTS RSS) under the state ministry of Agriculture provided FAO Red Sea State with the flowing ranking of the drought affected localities as per severity:

1. Halaib 2. Suakin 3. Tokar 4. Algounb and Awlieb 5. Durdeed 6. Gebeit Almadeen 7. Agig 8. Sinkat 9. Haya 10. Port Sudan

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

From the ranking, the first four localities, i.e. Tokar, Algounb and Awlieb, Halaib, and Suakin which are considerably affected by drought were covered under the rapid assessment. The following four sample villages, one from each locality, were covered under the rapid assessment survey:

Table 1: Sample villages of the localities covered under Rapid Assessment Locality Population of the locality Village of the locality covered under assessment Tokar 207,301 Tokar Delta Algounb and Awlieb 14,567 Salwom Halaib 32,100 Areit Suakin 103,791 Eirim Source : IPC October 2017 (Population)

4. OBJECTIVES

The rapid assessment had the following objectives

 To assess the impact of current drought on livelihoods and food security of the affected households  Identify the immediate and intermediate needs of affected households in the drought affected localities

5. METHODOLOGY

As the rapid assessment focused on exploring and describing the drought phenomenon in the drought affected localities (rather than making statistical inferences), purposive sampling method under non- random sampling approach was adopted in order to select four sample villages from four drought affected localities . In consultation with the local authorities (Ministry of agriculture, Animals’ Resources Directorate, agriculture extension department, HAC Red Sea State and Water Environment and Sanitation), one drought affected village from each locality was selected for the rapid assessment.

In selected four villages of four localities, Focus Group Discussion (FGD) tool was used in order to collect information on drought aspects in respective villages and localities. Around 15 participants including farmers, livestock owners and community leaders participated in each Focus Group Discussion. Along with FGD, Key Informant Interview tool was also used to have in-depth information on drought aspects in the locality. Local leaders and local representatives were selected as the key informants.

The Rapid Assessment Team, formed for conducting the rapid assessments, comprised of

 Veronica Quattrola, Deputy FAO Representative, Sudan  Raffaele DelCima, Head of FAO Kassala office  Hassan Sir Elkhatim Mohamed,Field Technical Officer, FAO Red Sea State  Dr. Siham Osman, Veterinary Doctor Manager of Tokar office of animals’ resources directorate.  Osman Awad , Manager of Agriculture Extension Department  Mohamed Salih,Head of FSTS Red Sea State  Fatima Omer,Staff from HAC Red Sea State.  Abd Algadir Omer Ohaj, Deputy Chairman of Abu Hadia society  Sufiyan Hassan, Engineer from Water Environment and Sanitation (WES)  Hashim Onour Abu Amnna , Mohamed Salih and Ohaj Omer, Drivers from FAO and Ministry of agriculture Red Sea State.  Firoj Ahmed, M&E Officer, FAO Sudan

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

6. LIVELIHOOD PROFILE AND POPULATION

Accordingly to the Rural Livelihood Profiles for Eastern, Central and Northern Sudan 2015 by FEWS NET, most part of Tokar, Algounb and Awlieb and Suakin localties fall under Eastern Pastoral zone (zone 3). In this livelihood zone, livestock is predominant with no cropping. All households are heavily dependent on markets for food. Livestock holdings and sales are relatively inequitable, favoring wealthier households. The FGDs of Algounb and Awlieb and Suakin took place in this livelihood zone.

Part of Tokar locality belongs to Flood‐retreat Cultivation (Zone 8). In fact, the FGD of the Rapid Assessment of Tokar locality took place in this zone. The fertile alluvial soils of this zone allow for heavy reliance on sorghum and vegetable production. Cultivation is mainly determined by flooding of Tokar Delta. Livestock production and sale is a common secondary activity in the zone (FEWS NET, 2015).

Part of Halaib locality falls under Eastern Khors agropastoral (zone 5) where sorghum is the predominant crop, but most households also own relatively large herds of sheep and goats. However, the FGD of this locality took place in Areit village which does not fall under any defined livelihood zone.

All the assessed localities are sharing the borders along Red Sea. The bordering areas along Red Sea forms Coastal Fishing (Zone 6) where fishing is the predominant livelihood activity. Most households also earn income from livestock sales or through labor or trade outside the zone.

Figure 1 : Assessed Localities of Red Sea Figure 2 : Location of the assessed villages of State Red Sea State superimposed on livelihood zones

Source : FAO Sudan Source : Rural Livelihood Profiles for Easte, Central and Northern Sudan 2015, FEWS NET

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

7. RAINFALL AND KHOR BARAKA FLOODING

All four assessed localities experienced very poor rain, i.e. almost no rain during 2017-18 season. The season is characterized by very weak Khor Baraka flooding. Flood started late on 10th July. Most of the flushes was below average. Total number of flushes was eleven, three out of it was average and 8 was below average (Preliminary Findings of CFSAM Nov-Dec 2017).

Most of the localities experienced almost no rain or 1 to 2 times rain during the winter rainy season. Suakin locality has been experiencing almost no rain for last 6 years. Very high extent of area (more than 80%) of these localities experienced extremely poor rain during entire rainy season.

Table 2: Rainfall in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Locality Village Seasonal Cumulative Rainfall (Summer Rain/Flood and winter rain) Compared Compared to Extent of area that experienced to last year usual years extremely poor rainfall Tokar Tokar Much Less Much Less Very high (above 80% of the Delta area) Algounb and Salwom Much Less Much Less Very high (above 80% of the Awlieb area) Halaib Areit Much Less Much Less Very high (above 80% of the area) Suakin Eirim Much Less Almost no rain Very high (above 80% of the for last 6 years area) Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

8. LIVESTOCK

8.1 Livestock body condition, milk production, movement and diseases

In Tokar, Halaib and Suakin localities, the animal body conditions was reported as very bad, i.e. all ribs and other bones of hind limbs (dorsal site) are prominent. However, the animal health in Algounb and Awlieb locality is comparatively better as reported as medium, i.e. ribs and other bones are visible but not prominent. The goats in Tokar locality are in extremely weak condition and as some of the respondents stated, many of the goats are so weak that they struggle to stand.

On an average, milk production in the drought affected villages decreased significantly at the household level. Grossly milk production per household per day is below the half of the usual milk production.

Table 3: Livestock body condition in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Locality Village Body Milk production per Several cases Unusual condition HH (Littre/HH) of animal movement Current Usual diseases Tokar Tokar Very bad 1-0.5 4 to 5 Yes No Delta Algounb and Awlieb Salwom Medium 0.5 4 to 5 Yes Yes Halaib Areit Very bad 0 4 to 5 Yes No Suakin Eirim Very bad 05 4 to 5 Yes No Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

Several cases of animal diseases have been reported in all four drought affected localities assessed. The most common diseases which the animals of these localities are affected by are diarrhea and pneumonia. In Algounb and Awlieb locality, in search of pasture, there have been unusual movements of livestock. However, in other three localities, now unusual movement of livestock has been reported.

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

8.2 Animal deaths

Due to diseases and hunger, death of animals is frequent at a significant rate in three of the fours localities assessed (Tokar, Algounb and Awlieb, and Suakin). In Halaib locality, the animals are also dying with a significant rate but not by diseases, only for hunger. However, the rate of animal deaths varies among the localities.

Animal death is experienced almost daily in Tokar delta. As reported, in December 2017, approximately 200 animals died in Tokar delta and during the rapid assessment time (First week of February, 2018), as reported by the FGD participants, around 7 to 10 animals were dying every day due to diseases and hunger. In Tokar Delta, the rapid assessment team visited a vast field where the dead bodies of the animals were dumped.

Algounb and Awlieb ocality, as reported, 2 to 3 animals were dying weekly during the assessment period. 70% of animals were dying of diseases and the rest 30% of animals were dying of hunger. The animals in the locality were vaccinated in November 2017. However, still they have been affected by diseases and are dying (February 2018). In Halaib locality, 2 to 3 animals are dying monthly due to hunger. In Suakin locality, 3 to 5 animals are dying weekly due to hunger and diseases.

Table 4: Frequency and reasons of animals deaths in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Locality Village Number of animals deaths Reasons of animal deaths Daily Weekly Monthly Diseases Hunger Tokar Tokar Delta 7 to 10 Yes Yes Algounb and Awlieb Salwom 2 to 3 Yes Yes Halaib Areit 2 to 3 No Yes Suakin Eirim 3 to 5 Yes Yes Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

Following the rapid assessment, the Animal Resources Department of Red Sea State published a report on the toll of animal life due to diseases and hunger in these drought affected localities. According to the report, Shiaib tribe, a nomad tribe in Tokar locality reported that a significant number of animals comprising camels, sheep and donkeys were dying. The veterinary technician visited the area and as he found, the body condition of herds was deteriorating. The sheep were affected by general health weakness and swallow mouth, anemia and brocilla. Due to lack of animals feed except the meskiet trees, the camels’ exhibit serious weakness, skin dryness and are experiencing deaths. According to Tokar Vet Doctor, 2.9% out of 22,000 heads of camels and 16% of 12,000 sheep died between Decembers to February. The number of deaths for sheep was extremely high. In Aideib village (bordering Tokar locality from south), 22 heads of sheep/goats died from 15 Jan 2018 to 13 February 2018.

8.3 Pasture

During the assessment, it was reported that there is no grazing land remaining in the four villages of the localities assessed. The respondents also informed that at there is hardly any grazing land remaining in those localities as well. For pasture, the households in those affected localities are entirely dependent on the market.

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

Table 5: Pasture condition in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Locality Village Pasture Until when the current condition pasture feed the local livestock Tokar Tokar Delta Poor Almost no grazing land Algounb and Awlieb Salwom Poor Almost no grazing land Halaib Areit Poor Almost no grazing land Suakin Eirim Poor Almost no grazing land Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

8.4 Fodder availability and access

Fodder is available in the market in the affected localities. However, around 60% of the affected households in Tokar Delta and Algounb and Awlieb are not able to access to fodder from the market. In terms of access to fodder from the market, the situation in Halaid and Suakin is comparatively better. Around 20% and 30% of the households in those localities respectively could not afford fodder from the market during the assessment time.

The main factors that are affecting the access of the households to fodder in the drought affected localities are shirking of income opportunities and the high price of the fodder. In order to feed the animals, the households are selling the animals or borrowing money in order to purchase fodder. Some households are working as daily laborers and many are engaged in charcoal making.

The villagers of Areit village of Halaib locality usually travel to Port Sudan twice a month to buy sorghum for them and their animals. They come to Port Sudan and sell charcoal and return buying sorghum. Usually 80% of the sorghum they use for themselves and 20% is used for their animals.

Table 6: Fodder availability and access in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Locality Village Availability in % of HH cannot Local tensions due the market access to fodder to fodder access Tokar Tokar Delta Yes 60 No Algounb and Awlieb Salwom Yes 60 No Halaib Areit Yes 20 No Suakin Eirim Yes 30 No Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

In any locality, no local tensions due to fodder access were reported until the assessment time, i.e. February 2018.

8.5 Water resources for livestock

Although most the existing water points of these localities serve until June and few run for all through the year, the supply of water from these points, as reported by the FGD participants, is quite insufficient against the need from their livestock.

Except for Halaib locality, the overall status of the water sources in Tokar, Algounb and Awlieb and Suakin is poor. None of the water points of in Erim village of Suakin locality is functioning. There are two haffirs but both are of them are nonfunctioning. Although there is one shallow well for animals in the village, only brackish water is found from it. Therefore, the villagers purchase water from the supplying trucks and this is mostly the case for the other villages of the locality.

In Salwum village of Algounb and Awlieb locality, all of 16 hand pumps are nonfunctioning. There are 3 water yards and 3 shallow wells which are functioning and they serve almost all through the year. As reported, all the water points in Tokar locality are wells. There are around 300 wells in the locality but most of them are with poor quality of water. The water points of Areit village of Halaib locality has 6

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan traditional wells which all are functioning. The water points of Tokar and Halaib localities serve until June.

No local tensions over the access to water resources in the localities were reported.

Table 7: Status of the water resources in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Locality Village Status of water Until when the current water sources sources support Tokar Tokar Delta Poor Until June Algounb and Awlieb Salwom Poor Almost although the year (however insufficient against need) Halaib Areit Good Until June Suakin Eirim None is functioning Only brackish water Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

9. CROP PRODUCTION

9.1 Percentage of the farmers cultivated

Mainly due to intense drought situation in the localities, a significant reduction in the percentage of farmers who cultivated has been observed. Tokar Delta is predominated by farmers and because of the very insufficient flood and almost no winter rain, only 25% of the total farmers in the Tokaar Delta cultivated in this season. Notable reduction in the farmers to cultivate in other localities has been observed as well. Halaib locality is predominated by pastoralists (around 70%) and the village where FGD took place in is entirely a pastoral village. However, they commented that, almost no farmers cultivated in this season in Halaib locality.

Table 8: Percentage of the farmers cultivated in the current season by the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Name of the locality Village % of farmers of the total % of the total farmers households in the locality who cultivated in this reason Tokar Tokar Delta 60 25 Algounb and Awlieb Salwom 34 50 Halaib Areit 25 Almost 0 Suakin Eirim 35 15 Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

As for last 6 years, there has been almost no rain in Suakin locality, farmers are usually not cultivating. Few of the farmers are cultivating in areas close to Tokar Delta and they planted Millet.

No farmers in four assessed localities replanted due to dry spells. However, some farmers (not more than 20%) in Algounb and Awlieb locality shifted from planting sorghum to tomato.

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

Table 9: Plant pests/diseases in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Locality Village Plant pests/diseases Level of impact Pests/diseases observed on crops Tokar Tokar Delta No - - Algounb and Salwom Yes Severe White fly and African Awlieb worm Halaib Areit - - - Suakin Eirim Yes Less Worms Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

9.2 Planted and harvested area

As stated by the participants in Tokar Delta during the FGD, only 10% of the land under the flooding scheme was flooded in Tokar Delta by Baraka khor. Therefore, area cultivated under Delta Tokar flood irrigated scheme in 2017/18 was far less from that of 2016. According to information provided by Tokar agriculture scheme project, the area cultivated area under Delta Tokar flood irrigated in 2017/18 was less by 70% from that of the previous year (from 47,208 feddan in 2016/17 to 14,119.5 feddan in 2017/18). According to preliminary findings of CFSAM Nov-Dec 2017, the total area planted by sorghum, this season was less by 67% and 43% compared to the last year and the five-year average, respectively. Millet area was a less than 29% and 23% compared to the last year and the five-year average respectively.

Figure 3 : Area cultivated under Tokar Delta flood irrigated scheme in 2017/18 and 1016/17 seasons

Source : Tokar agriculture scheme project, April 2018

Under Tokar irrigated scheme, along with the decrease of the planted area by sorghum and millet in 2017/18, the harvested area also decreased significantly, i.e. 50% and 20% respectively. Compared to last and five years average, the harvested area under Tokar irrigated scheme decreased by 17% and 19% respectively. The drop in the total harvestable/harvested area compared to previous years was mainly due the late and low flooding Baraka khor (Preliminary findings of CFSAM Nov-Dec 2017).

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

Figure 4 : Cultivated and harvested area under Tokar scheme in 2017/18

Source : Preliminary findings of CFSAM Nov-Dec 2017

9.3 Production

According to CFSAM report 15 March 2018, in Red Sea State, compared to last year and five years average, sorghum and millet production significantly decreased in Tokar irrigated scheme. Under Tokar irrigated scheme, sorghum and millet production was only 12% and 43% of last year’s production respectively. Compared to five years average, production of 2017/18 of sorghum and millet is 18% and 50% respectively. The Tokar delta Scheme extension unit reported that the millet crop production as in usual year 4 sac/ feddan , previous year 2-3 sac/feddan and this year 1-2 sac/feddan.

Figure 5 : Cereal production of 2017/18 compared to last year and five years average in Tokar Delta irrigated scheme

Source : Preliminary findings of CFSAM Nov-Dec 2017

Severe impact on crops from plant pests/diseases has been observed in Algounb and Awlieb locality. Due to white fly and African worm (not FAW), 70% of the crops was damaged in Salwom village of the locality. Although not severe, in Suakin locality, in some cases, watermelons were affected by worms.

10. FOOD SECURITY

10.1 Drought coping strategy in the affected localities

People in the Red Sea State practice a variety of drought-coping strategies. Most of these involve intensification of the behavior or activities they already perform or usually do, for example, reducing the quantity, quality or number of meals per day, spending savings and so on. These strategies reflect characteristic of the early onset of stress. Others strategies employed when stress is acute include selling productive assets, consuming seed stocks etc.

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

Due to the effects of drought, as the milk production decreased across the affected localities, milk consumption also decreased in almost all the families (more than 80%).

Charcoal making in these localities apparently turned into one of their livelihood strategies which they are employing all through the year although it is also the fact that some household intensify the strategy due to drought. As found, most of the households (around 90%) are involved in charcoal making all through the year in Areit village of Halaib locality. It has apparently turned into one of their prime income activities. In Salwom village of Algounb and Awlieb locality also, very significant percentage of households (around 70%) are making charcoals.

Livelihood coping strategies are categorized by WFP into stress, crisis and emergency strategies. Following are some general examples of these categories of coping strategies:

 Stress strategies, such as borrowing money or spending savings, are those which indicate a reduced ability to deal with future shocks due to a current reduction in resources or increase in debts.  Crisis strategies, such as selling productive assets, directly reduce future productivity, including human capital formation.  Emergency strategies, such as selling one's land, affect future productivity, but are more difficult to reverse or more dramatic in nature.

Selling productive assets (productive female animals), a crisis strategy, is being employed in all four localities where Tokar has the highest percentage of households (40%) employing it. By December 2017, around 90% of the households in Tokar Delta have spent all their savings and consumed seed stock that was supposed to be saved for the next season. In addition, around 95% of the households in Tokar Delta have also reduced expenditures basically on fodder, animal feed and veterinary care as their income sources have been extremely shrunk due to very poor harvest.

Table 10: Coping strategies employed by the households in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Livelihood Coping strategy Percentage of households who adapted and applying frequently Strategy Category Tokar Salwom Areit Eirim Delta (Algounb and (Halaib) (Suakin) (Tokar) Awlieb) Spent savings Stress 90 10 10 10 Sold more animals (non- Stress 40 30 25 10 productive) than usual Purchased food on credit or Stress 70 borrowed food Borrowed money Stress 60 30 Sold productive assets Crisis 40 25 25 10 (productive female animals) Consumed seed stocks that Crisis 90 were to be saved for the next season Decreased expenditures on Crisis 95 60 fertilizer, pesticide, fodder, animal feed, veterinary care, etc Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

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With regard to the type of categories of coping strategies employed by the drought affected households, and the extent of households employed (% of the households employing), Tokar locality among the assessed four localities reflects the more serious signs of concerns.

10.2 Over view of the drought aspects in the affected localities

As per the key findings on the drought aspects in the four localities assessed, Tokar locality reflects the worst situation, i.e. animals are dying daily, highest percentage of the households applying crisis coping strategy, and highest percentage of households who cannot access to fodder from the market.

Table 11: Overview of drought aspects in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Key aspects of drought Main findings from the rapid assessment Tokar Delta Salwom Areit Eirim (Tokar) (Algounb and (Halaib) (Suakin) Awlieb) Rain quantity and Very poor Very poor Very poor Very poor distribution Livestock body condition Very poor Medium Very poor Very poor Milk Production 1-0.5 .5 0 0.5 liter/HH/Day Animal deaths Daily Weekly Monthly Weekly Pasture condition Poor Poor Poor Poor Cannot access to fodder 60% 60% 20% 30% Water sources for Poor Poor Good Poor(Brakish) livestock Crop harvest Poor Poor - Poor Crisis Coping strategy 90% 60% 25% 10% Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

10.3 Severity of Food insecurity

Livelihood zones in Red Sea states have particularly limited options for income generation, and, in some cases, unpredictable incomes. As a result, the risk of food insecurity among poor households is relatively greater there than in other areas, even in years of favorable rainfall conditions.

Considering IPC’s “phase 3 and worse” referring to severely affected population, the number of severely affected population of Red Sea State stands at 124,631 (20,771 HH) which is 8% of the total population of the Red Sea State. Accordingly, the number of severely affected population of the four localities assessed in the Red Sea State stands at 24,888 (4,148 HH).

9.4 % of Sudan’s total population is at IPC phase 3 and worse.

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Table 12: Number of the severely affected people in the drought affected localities of Red Sea State assessed 3 and State Localities PoP No Phase1 % phase2 % phase3 % phase4 % worse % Total 2 Sudan 42778076 26424182 62 12508088 9 3694087 9 151718 0.4 3845805 9.4

6 Red Sea Total 1608125 472186 29 1011308 3 124631 8 124631 8

7 Tokar 207301 39387 19 157549 6 10365 5 10365 5 Algnop 7 2 RSS &aweelib 14567 1311 9 10343 1 2913 0 2913 20 Rapid 7 2 Assessm Halaieb 32100 2889 9 22791 1 6420 0 6420 20 ent 7 suakin 103791 18682 18 79919 7 5190 5 5190 5 7 Total 357759 62270 17 270601 6 24888 7 24888 7 Source : Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Analysis Date: October 2017, Valid to: End of December2017

11. NEEDS

11.1 Severity of current shock and recovery

In Halaib locality, the current drought is seemingly a continuation of the chronic drought situation and the in Suakin locality, for last six years the drought situation has been prevailing with similar intensity. However, in Tokar and Algounb and Awlieb localities, the severity of drought has been realized more compared to previous crisis in last five years. If there is good rain in the next season, i.e. by next September to October, all the affected households would recover.

Table 13: Severity of current shock and recovery time Locality Extremely Severity of the Time to Remark vulnerable current shock recover livelihood groups compared to previous crisis Tokar  Farmers More severe Next season For last five years the  Daily (Sep 2018) drought situation in Tokar labourers Delta is worsening. However, this season is the worst in terms of severity Algounb  Small holder More severe Next season For last five years the and Awlieb pastoralist (Oct 2018) drought situation is worsening. However, this season is the worst in terms of severity Halaib  Small holder Same as before Next season Prevalence of the chronic pastoralist (Oct 2018) drought situation Suakin  Farmers Same as before Next season For last six years, the similar (Sep 2018) situation continues Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

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Rapid Assessment on the impact of drought in Red Sea State Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Initiative, FAO Sudan

11.2 Support being provided to the affected households

During the rapid assessment time, FAO and Practical action were providing animal fodder in Tokar and Algounb and Awlieb locality. As the FGD participants commented, the support is very insufficient against the needs.

Table 14: Type of support being provided in the assessed villages of the drought affected localities of Red Sea State Locality Type of support provided to drought affected Organization providing households support Tokar Provision of fodder and animal vaccination FAO Algounb and Awlieb Provision of fodder and animal vaccination FAO ,and Practical Action Halaib No support being provided Suakin No support being provided Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

11.3 Immediate and intermediate needs

Food assistance, provision of animal feed until next season, and animal vaccination are the immediate needs of the affected households in Tokar and Algounb and Awlieb localities. Provision of fishing inputs was identified as an immediate need in Suakin locality. The intermediate needs commonly include provision of seeds and agriculture tools for next season and provision/rehabilitation of water points.

Table 15: Immediate and intermediate needs in drought affected localities of Red Sea State Locality Immediate needs Intermediate needs Tokar  Food assistance until next  Provision of seeds and season agriculture tools for next season  Provision of animal feed until and extension Programme next season  Provision of water points  Animal vaccination Algounb and Awlieb  Food assistance until next  Provision of seeds and season agriculture tools for next season  Provision of animal feed for a  Provision of water points year Halaib  Food assistance for next 8  Provision of water points months Suakin  Provision of fishing inputs  Provision of agriculture inputs  Rehabilitation of water points  Water treatment for the existing water points Source : FAO Rapid Assessment Survey in Red Sea State, Sudan, February 2018

12. RECOMMENDATIONS

From the overview of the drought aspects among the four localities, it is apparent that the affected households in Tokar locality are more vulnerable than the affected households of other three localities due to the impact of the ongoing drought.

As 7 to 10 animals are dying every day, immediate attention and actions are required in Tokar locality in order to protect the livestock of the affected household. Other two localities Algounb and Awlieb and Suakin should also be taken under immediate support to protect the livestock as animal deaths there are being observed on a weekly basis.

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Immediate food assistance to affected households, particularly to the affected households of Tokar locality needs to be considered since around 90% of the affected households are employing crisis coping strategy and also, 70 % of the households are relying on purchasing food on credit.

Under the intermediate support, provision of agriculture inputs needs to be considered for affected households with particular attention to Tokar locality where majority of the population are farmers; the harvest there was very poor, and the households already consumed their seed stock by December 2017.

Since the supply from the existing water points is very insufficient against the needs, provision of water points and where applicable and rehabilitation of the water points would be extremely helpful for livestock protection and production.

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