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Past and Future Climate Variations in the Norwegian Arctic: Overview and Novel Analyses

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Past and Future Climate Variations in the Norwegian Arctic: Overview and Novel Analyses Past and future climate variations in the Norwegian Arctic: overview and novel analyses Eirik J. Førland & Inger Hanssen-Bauer Sparse stations and serious measuring problems hamper analyses of climatic conditions in the Arctic. This paper presents a discussion of measuring problems in the Arctic and gives an overview of observed past and projected future climate variations in Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Novel analyses of temperature conditions during precipitation and trends in fractions of solid/liquid precipitation at the Arctic weather stations are also outlined. Analyses based on combined and homogenized series from the regular weather stations in the region indicate that the measured annual precipitation has increased by more than 2.5 % per decade since the measurements started in the beginning of the 20th century. The annual temperature has increased in Svalbard and Jan Mayen during the latest decades, but the present level is still lower than in the 1930s. Downscaled scenarios for Svalbard Airport indicate a further increase in temperature and precipitation. Analyses based on observations of precipitation types at the regular weather stations demonstrate that the annual fraction of solid precipitation has decreased at all stations during the latest decades. The reduced fraction of solid precipitation implies that the undercatch of the precipitation gauges is reduced. Consequently, part of the observed increase in the annual precipitation is fi ctitious and is due to a larger part of the “true” precipitation being caught by the gauges. With continued warming in the region, this virtual increase will be measured in addition to an eventual real increase. E. J. Førland & I. Hanssen-Bauer, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Box 43 Blindern, NO-0313 Oslo, Norway, [email protected]. A combination of instrumental records and increase of temperature and precipitation in reconstructions from proxy sources indicate that high northern latitudes as greenhouse gas con- Arctic air temperatures in the 20th century were centrations increase (IPCC 2001). The warm- the highest in the past 400 years (Serreze et al. ing in high northern latitudes may be amplifi ed 2000). During the 20th century an increase in by feedbacks from changes in snow and sea ice annual precipitation has been observed at higher extent and thawing of permafrost. The freshwater northern latitudes (Hulme 1995; Dai et al. 1997). budget in the Arctic has become an increasingly The Norwegian Arctic has experienced a substan- important consideration in the context of global tial increase in precipitation during the 20th cen- climate change (Walsh et al. 1998) as it may be tury, but although the temperature has increased linked to the intermittency of North Atlantic deep during the latest decades there is no signifi cant water formation and the global thermohaline cir- long-term trend in annual temperatures (Førland culation, which is a major determinant of global et al. 2002; Hanssen-Bauer 2002). climate (Aagaard & Carmack 1989; Mysak et al. Global climate models project signifi cant 1990). The Arctic freshwater budget is driven by Førland & Hanssen-Bauer 2003: Polar Research 22(2), 113–124 113 Fig.1. Location of current manual weather stations in the Norwegian Arctic. Bjørnøya: elevation 16 m a.s.l., start of measurements 1920. Hopen: 6 m a.s.l., 1944. Hornsund (Polish): 10 m a.s.l., 1978. Sveagruva 9 m a.s.l., 1978. Barentsburg (Russian): 70 m a.s.l., 1933. Svalbard Airport: 28 m a.s.l., 1975. Ny-Ålesund: 8 m a.s.l., 1974. Jan Mayen: 10 m a.s.l., 1921. river runoff, accumulation/ablation of glaciers the precipitation trend was almost doubled after and precipitation over the Arctic Ocean. The adjusting the series. Accordingly, it is of crucial observed and projected increases in temperature importance to adjust series for inhomogeneities and precipitation in Svalbard and Jan Mayen (Fig. when they are used in studies of long-term cli- 1) thus have broad implications for Arctic and, mate variations. perhaps, global climate and the monitoring of The climate and long-term climatic variations climatic trends in these regions is therefore also at the Norwegian Arctic stations are described in important in a global context. a number of old and new publications, e.g. Bir- Analyses of climatic trends in the Arctic are keland (1930), Hesselberg & Johannessen (1958), hampered by the sparse station network and seri- Steffensen (1969, 1982), Hisdal (1976), Vinje ous measuring problems. The large year-to-year (1982), Hanssen-Bauer et al. (1990), Førland et al. variations imply that the climate signals have to (1997a) and Winther et al. (2003). Serreze et al. be strong to be statistically signifi cant. Although (2000) review observational evidence of recent the scenarios indicate substantial climate chang- changes in the Arctic environment. es in the Arctic, it is not necessarily the case that In this paper a discussion of measuring prob- the fi rst signifi cant “greenhouse signal” will lems in the Arctic and an overview of past and be found in this region. Real climatic trends future climate variations are given in the fi rst may be masked or amplifi ed when analyses are sections. In the last sections novel analyses of based upon inhomogeneous series. Studies have temperature conditions during precipitation and revealed that inhomogeneities in Arctic climate trends in fractions of solid/liquid precipitation at series are often of the same magnitude as typi- the Arctic stations are outlined, and it is demon- cal long-term trends (Hanssen-Bauer & Førland strated that the observed trends in measured pre- 1994; Nordli et al. 1996). For Arctic stations in cipitation may deviate from the real precipitation Canada, Mekis & Hogg (1999) demonstrated that trends. 114 Past and future climate variations in the Norwegian Arctic Meteorological measuring problems In the Arctic, typical values of the combined ∆ ∆ in the Arctic effect of wetting and evaporation loss ( PW + PE) for the Norwegian gauge is 0.10 - 0.15 mm/case for solid, liquid and mixed precipitation (Før- General measuring problems land & Hanssen-Bauer 2000). At most measur- ing sites, wind speed is the most important envi- The Arctic climate poses several serious chal- ronmental factor contributing to the undercatch lenges for the monitoring of the main weather of the precipitation gauges. Based on results elements. Icing and wet snow may cause mal- from the World Meteorological Organization functioning of the various sensors at the weather Solid Precipitation Measurement Intercompar- stations. During the polar night, the combination ison (Goodison et al. 1998), Nordic precipita- of darkness and harsh weather occasionally com- tion gauge studies (Førland et al. 1996) and fi eld plicates manual observations. measurements in Ny-Ålesund, Førland & Hans- The combination of dry snow, high wind speed sen-Bauer (2000) deduced correction models for and open tundra increase dramatically the meas- hourly and daily measurements in the Norwegian uring errors for precipitation and snow depth at precipitation gauge under Arctic conditions. The most stations in the Norwegian Arctic. Because correction factor for solid precipitation was found of blowing snow, the snow layer on the ground to increase with increasing wind speeds, and is likely to show large local variations (Winther decrease with increasing temperature. et al. 1998; Winther et al. 2003), and the regu- By considering typical values of wind speed, lar snow depth measurements at weather stations temperature and precipitation intensity, Førland are therefore seldom representative for the snow & Hanssen-Bauer (2000) suggested the following accumulation in the station area. Consequent- rough correction factors for unsheltered stations ly, measurements of snow cover and snow depth on Spitsbergen: liquid precipitation kl = 1.15, solid have been given little priority at the Norwegian ks = 1.85 and mixed km = (0.5 * kl + 0.5 * ks) = 1.5. It Arctic weather stations. should be stressed that using these typical correc- tion factors does not necessarily produce accurate Errors in precipitation measurements estimates of true precipitation at particular indi- vidual stations. Further, the corrections do not Several types of errors are connected to precipita- refl ect differences in wind exposure between dif- tion measurements (Goodison et al. 1998). For the ferent measuring sites. Nordic countries, Førland et al. (1996) concluded that the real amount of precipitation (“true pre- Adjustment for inhomogeneities cipitation”) might be expressed as: Inhomogeneities in climatic series may be ∆ ∆ caused by relocation of sensors, changed envi- PC = k ⋅(Pm + PW + PE ), (1) ronment (such as new buildings) and instrumen- where PC is true precipitation, k is the correction tal improvements. To acquire reliable long-term factor due to aerodynamic effects, Pm is measured climate series in the Arctic is particularly com- ∆ precipitation, PW is precipitation lost by wetting, plicated. Because of the harsh weather condi- ∆ and PE is precipitation lost by evaporation from tions, even small changes at measuring sites may the gauge. Other error types, such as splash in/ cause substantial changes in measuring condi- out, instrumental errors, misreadings etc., are tions for precipitation, for example. Identifi ca- either corrected in routine quality controls or may tion of inhomogeneities in Arctic climate series is be neglected under Nordic climate conditions. further hampered by the sparse station network. However, drifting or blowing snow occasionally Homogeneity tests based upon comparison with cause substantial problems in the Arctic. “Precip- neighbouring stations are diffi cult to perform for itation” caused solely by blowing snow is exclud- Bjørnøya (the southernmost island of Svalbard) ed through the quality control at the Norwegian and Jan Mayen, for example, as the nearest neigh- Meteorological Institute, but there is often a com- bouring stations are more than 300 km away. A bination of precipitation and blowing snow. In detailed survey of the results of the homogeneity such cases it is diffi cult to distinguish the propor- analyses for Norwegian Arctic series is given by tions of real precipitation and blowing snow.
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