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Post-Conflict Occupations: a New Analysis Using Comparisons of Contextual, Hybrid and Instigated Factors in Germany, Japan and Iraq

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Post-Conflict Occupations: a New Analysis Using Comparisons of Contextual, Hybrid and Instigated Factors in Germany, Japan and Iraq Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports 2017 Post-Conflict Occupations: A New Analysis Using Comparisons of Contextual, Hybrid and Instigated Factors in Germany, Japan and Iraq L. Amber Brugnoli Follow this and additional works at: https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd Recommended Citation Brugnoli, L. Amber, "Post-Conflict Occupations: A New Analysis Using Comparisons of Contextual, Hybrid and Instigated Factors in Germany, Japan and Iraq" (2017). Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports. 5272. https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd/5272 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by the The Research Repository @ WVU with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you must obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in WVU Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports collection by an authorized administrator of The Research Repository @ WVU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Post-Conflict Occupations: A New Analysis Using Comparisons of Contextual, Hybrid & Instigated Factors In Germany, Japan & Iraq L. Amber Brugnoli Dissertation Submitted to the Eberly College of Arts and Sciences at West Virginia University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy In Political Science Scott Crichlow, PhD – Chair Robert Duval, PhD James Friedberg, JD Joe D. Hagan, PhD Patrick Hickey, PhD Department of Political Science Morgantown, WV 2017 Keywords: post-conflict occupation, reconstruction, civil affairs, military government Copyright 2017 L. Amber Brugnoli Abstract Post-Conflict Occupations: A New Analysis Using Comparisons of Contextual, Hybrid & Instigated Factors In Germany, Japan & Iraq L. Amber Brugnoli This research asserts that the failures in reconstructing Iraq resulted from poor decision-making and policy implementation in 2003 by comparing those efforts to the successful rebuilding of Germany and Japan, post-World War II. The focus is on actions taken by the occupying force—the United States— within the first 12 months of the operation, with a five-year post-conflict examination to determine the result of those actions. While comparisons between Iraq and Germany or Iraq and Japan have been completed previously, they are often with the intent of proving why the reconstruction of Iraq did not succeed by highlighting the differences between the two nations at issue; however, when a three-nation cross-comparison is done, Iraq does not vary from the post-World War II nations as widely as is popularly believed. The current comparison is performed through an examination of three categories of factors, two of which have been previously examined at length by scholars. The categories are Contextual Factors, Hybrid Factors, and Instigated Factors. For each category, the U.S. had an increasing level of control over the situation on the ground. The Instigated Factors have not previously been subjected to a comparative analysis. This research closes the gap in previous works by illustrating what the U.S. knew, or should have known, in Iraq based on earlier reconstruction attempts; by highlighting the fact similar obstacles to those faced in Iraq were successfully overcome during prior efforts; and by identifying those factors most influential to the success of post-conflict reconstruction efforts. Dedication This work is dedicated to the Iraqi men and women I met while serving in their country—specifically to my amazing investigative team of “Little Big Mac”. Though I left your country, I did not forget you. Also, for people like my grandfather, who left to fight a war in a far-off land I would one day call home, in hopes of making the world a better place. I have enjoyed amazing opportunities because of their sacrifices. iii Acknowledgements In any work such as this—a project spanning several years—countless individuals will contribute and inspire along the way. I cannot hope to remember everyone who discussed and debated this topic with me, but for those who stuck with it, thank you. To my Task Force 134 colleagues, who, in an Iraqi Dining Facility, quipped that someone should write about what we did there, and who could also be counted on for a timely Princess Bride quote. To my committee chair and advisor, Prof Scott Crichlow, who told me research does not have to be filled with numbers and statistics to make a meaningful contribution to the field. To Prof James Friedberg, thanks for the line edits and your 20 years of friendship—I love that you are now my co-worker, Jim! To my incredibly supportive supervisor, Associate Dean Gregory Elkins—thanks for asking every week how many pages I’d written. To WVU Law Prof Kirsha Trychta, for inviting me to join her writing group, and to all the other Avengers—you pushed me to the finish line! To my husband, Eric, for his love, support, and patience. I’m really glad we decided to “get out of Dodge” together. Finally, to my beautiful daughters, Kaitlyn and Adalind: may this work show you that, no matter how long it takes, you should never give up on a dream. iv Table of Contents Abstract ii Dedication iii Acknowledgements iv Table of Contents v List of Acronyms vii List of Players viii Chapter 1 – Introduction 1 Chapter 2 – Literature Review 9 • Nation-Building 9 • Insurgency 12 • Previous Analyses 16 • Contextual Factors (Category 1) 21 • Hybrid Factors (Category 2) 24 • Instigated Factors (Category 3) 29 • Summary 34 Chapter 3 – Contextual Factors: Germany, Japan and Iraq 36 • Historical Precedent w/ Democracy 36 • Societal Cohesion 39 • Exhaustion 45 • External Enemies 50 Chapter 4 – Hybrid Factors: Germany, Japan and Iraq 53 • Economic Development 53 • Legitimacy of Occupation 72 • Consistency of Authority 83 • Security 97 • Civil Institutions 113 Chapter 5 – Instigated Factors 146 • Operational Planning 146 • Approach to Civil Affairs 158 • Occupation Policy Decisions 187 • Elections and Constitutional Drafting 212 v Chapter 6 – Germany, Japan and Iraq: Five-Year Post-Conflict Status 241 Note on Economic Costs 263 Chapter 7 – Findings and Recommendations 266 • Conclusions 279 Bibliography 283 vi List of Acronyms AQI Al Qaeda in Iraq CENTCOM Central Command – the U.S. headquarters responsible for Southwest Asia operations CFLCC Combined Forces Land Component Commander – person overseeing the ground battle COIN Counter-Insurgency CPA Coalition Provisional Authority – the governing body during Iraq’s occupation DoD Department of Defense (U.S.) FID Foreign Internal Defense – mission to secure areas of operation GARIOA Government Aid and Relief in Occupied Areas – the aid program used in Germany, 1945 JAM Jaish al Mahdi – the militarized arm of Muqtada al Sadr’s forces JCS Joint Chiefs of Staff (U.S.) IGC Iraqi (or Interim) Governing Council; also referred to as GC IRDC Iraq Reconstruction and Development Council ISF Iraqi Security Forces NSC National Security Council NSPD National Security Policy Directive OIF Operation: IRAQI FREEDOM OMGUS Office of Military Government, United States (Germany, 1945) OPLAN Operations Plan ORHA Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance – short-lived precursor to the CPA SCAP Supreme Commander, Allied Powers (MacArthur in Japan, 1945) SCIRI Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq – Shia political party SF Special Forces (U.S.) SHAEF Supreme Headquarters, Allied Expeditionary Force (Germany, 1945) TAL Transitional Administrative Law – temporary law during Iraq’s transition to sovereignty USAID United States Agency for International Development vii List of Players Ayad Allawi – selected by the CPA to serve as interim Prime Minister of Iraq in 2004 Stuart Bowen – appointed Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction by President Bush in 2004 Lakhdar Brahimi – UN Special Envoy to Iraq in 2004 Paul Bremer – Ambassador; Head of the Coalitional Provisional Authority Ahmed Chalabi – leader of the Iraq National Conference, a group of exiled politicians; the Bush Administration’s preferred choice for the position of Iraq’s new leader Lucius Clay – General; commander of U.S. occupation forces in Germany Larry Diamond – political scientists and advisor to the CPA for Iraq’s new constitution Dwight Eisenhower – Commanding General of U.S. forces in Europe, 1945 Douglas Feith – Under Secretary of Defense and senior policy advisor during Iraq’s occupation Tommy Franks – General; CENTCOM commander during the Iraq invasion Jay Garner – Retired General; head of the short-lived ORHA, precursor to the Bremer and the CPA Zalmay Khalilzad – experienced Middle East diplomat; removed from occupation team by Bremer, later became U.S. Ambassador to Iraq David Kilcullen – Australian counter-insurgency expert who became frequent advisor to General Petraeus Douglas MacArthur – General; Supreme Commander, Allied Powers in Japan, 1945 Nuri al-Maliki – Iraq’s first permanent elected Prime Minister, 2005 Sergio de Mello – first UN Envoy in Iraq; killed by a truck bomb in August 2003 Raymond Odierno – General; commander of the 4th Infantry Division during the Iraq invasion, later became commander of Multi-National Forces – Iraq and eventually U.S. Army Chief of Staff Peter Pace – General; Chairman
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