Værdiansættelse Af Erhvervsejendomme Af Michael Schnell Hansen (118)
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HD - Regnskab og Økonomistyring Institut for Regnskab og Revision Afgangsprojekt for HD(R)-studiet 2012 Værdiansættelse af erhvervsejendomme Af Michael Schnell Hansen (118) Afleveringsdato: 9. maj 2012 Handelshøjskolen i København Copenhagen Business School Michael Schnell Hansen – Værdiansættelse af erhvervsejendomme CBS HD(R) Maj 2012 1 Indholdsfortegnelse 2 Executive summary ........................................................................................................................... 3 3 Indledning ........................................................................................................................................ 4 4 Problemformulering .......................................................................................................................... 5 5 Afgrænsning ..................................................................................................................................... 6 6 Metode ............................................................................................................................................. 7 7 Strategisk analyse ............................................................................................................................. 8 8 Porter’ Five Forces – analyse på brancheniveau .............................................................................. 8 8.1 Leverandørernes forhandlingsstyrke ...................................................................................... 9 8.2 Nye indtrængere .................................................................................................................. 10 8.3 Truslen fra substituerende produkter ................................................................................... 12 8.4 Købernes forhandlingsstyrke ............................................................................................... 15 8.5 Rivalisering mellem virksomhederne i branchen ................................................................ 17 8.6 Opsamling på Porter’ Five Forces ....................................................................................... 19 9 PESTEL – analyse på samfundsniveau ........................................................................................... 20 9.1 Politiske forhold .................................................................................................................. 21 9.2 Økonomiske forhold ............................................................................................................ 23 9.3 Sociale og kulturelle forhold ............................................................................................... 24 9.4 Teknologiske forhold ........................................................................................................... 25 9.5 Miljømæssige forhold .......................................................................................................... 26 9.6 Opsamling på PESTEL ......................................................................................................... 27 10 Værdiansættelse – hvorfor anvende den afkastbaserede model eller DCF-modellen? ................ 27 10.1 Markedsværdibegrebet ...................................................................................................... 28 11 Værdiansættelse – sammenligning med nylige handler ................................................................ 29 12 Den afkastbaserede model ............................................................................................................ 34 12.1 Forrentningskravet i den afkastbaserede model ................................................................ 35 12.2 Den risikofrie rente ............................................................................................................ 36 12.3 Markedsrisikopræmie ........................................................................................................ 38 12.4 Følsomhedsberegning ........................................................................................................ 39 12.5 Udlejers egen mulighed for at minimere risikoen ............................................................. 46 12.6 Indtægterne ........................................................................................................................ 48 12.7 Lejebestemmelser indenfor beboelseslejemål ................................................................... 48 Side 1 af 107 Michael Schnell Hansen – Værdiansættelse af erhvervsejendomme CBS HD(R) Maj 2012 12.8 Omkostningsbestemt leje ................................................................................................... 48 12.9 Det lejedes værdi ............................................................................................................... 50 12.10 Markedsleje ..................................................................................................................... 51 12.11 Lejebestemmelser indenfor erhvervslejemål ................................................................... 53 12.12 Driftsomkostninger .......................................................................................................... 55 12.13 Tomgang .......................................................................................................................... 56 12.14 Fremtidige investeringer .................................................................................................. 57 13 DCF-modellen .............................................................................................................................. 57 13.1 De frie pengestrømme ....................................................................................................... 58 13.2 Budgetperiodens længde .................................................................................................... 59 13.3 Hvornår på året skal pengestrømmene diskonteres fra ...................................................... 59 13.4 Deposita, forudbetalt leje og diverse andre saldi ............................................................... 60 13.5 Terminalværdien ................................................................................................................ 61 13.6 Tilbagediskontering ........................................................................................................... 62 13.7 Vækst i omsætningen og omkostningerne ......................................................................... 62 13.8 Opsamling på DCF-modellen ............................................................................................ 66 14 Værdiansættelse af ejendommene i porteføljen ud fra DCF-modellen ........................................ 67 14.1 Beregning nummer 1 - Erhvervsmæglernes forudsætninger ............................................. 67 14.2 Beregning nummer 2 – Dagsværdi til måling og DE’ standarder ..................................... 69 14.3 Opsamling på beregning 1 og 2 .......................................................................................... 70 14.4 Kendsgerninger ................................................................................................................... 71 14.5 Beregning nummer 3 – Best case scenario ........................................................................ 72 15 Konklusion ................................................................................................................................... 74 16 Litteraturliste og kildehenvisning ................................................................................................ 76 17 Bilag 1-8 ................................................................................................................................. 81-107 Side 2 af 107 Michael Schnell Hansen – Værdiansættelse af erhvervsejendomme CBS HD(R) Maj 2012 2 Executive summary The main purpose of this thesis is to verify the correctness of the valuation of thirteen investment properties in Copenhagen produces in thirteen sales prospectus. The sales prospectus is made by three different estate agents companies. To understand the market of property investment the thesis begins with a strategic analysis where two strategic models are used. These models are, Porter’ Five Forces and PESTEL. Porter’ Five Forces are used to analyze the internal conditions in the property market in Copenhagen and PESTEL is used to analyze the external conditions that effect the options and limitations in the market for investment in properties, in the specific area of Copenhagen. The rent for residential tenancies is determined trough comprehensive rent legislation, and it is important to know how the residential tenancies are regulated. The rent legislation for commercial leases is less regulated, but there are legislations that will need to be followed. When terms as market value and order for valuation of properties are used, it is important to define the meaning of these concepts. Some of these concepts will be analyzed. The yield requirement, and what it contains, why there are these specific levels, will be analyzed. There are specific levels for market rent for different types of lease for different areas of Copenhagen, an overview of these levels will be examined. There are two recognized valuation models for larger properties, these are , the Yield-model and the DCF-model, a third model is the Comparison-model , compares recent sold properties The Yield- model , which is the most common used valuation