NEPAL’S TROUBLED TARAI REGION Asia Report N°136 – 9 July 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. MADHES AND MADHESIS: THE ISSUES ............................................................... 2 III. POLITICS AND PLAYERS.......................................................................................... 5 A. POLITICS IN THE TARAI .........................................................................................................5 B. PARTIES ................................................................................................................................6 C. MILITANT AND FRINGE GROUPS ...........................................................................................9 IV. THE MADHESI MOVEMENT .................................................................................. 12 A. VIOLENCE IN THE TARAI .....................................................................................................12 B. THE RESPONSE....................................................................................................................13 V. THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY........................................................................... 15 A. THE LIE OF THE LAND.........................................................................................................15 B. THE ESTABLISHMENT: SHAKEN, NOT STIRRED ...................................................................16 1. The NC and UML....................................................................................................16 2. The NSP(A) .............................................................................................................17 3. The Maoists .............................................................................................................17 C. REBELS WITHOUT A ROADMAP?..........................................................................................19 1. The MJF and other Madhesi leadership...................................................................19 2. The JTMM...............................................................................................................20 VI. INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS ........................................................................... 22 A. CROSS-BORDER CONNECTIONS...........................................................................................22 B. INDIAN INTERESTS ..............................................................................................................24 1. Central government .................................................................................................24 2. State governments.....................................................................................................25 3. Party perspectives .....................................................................................................26 4. The Hindu Dimension..............................................................................................27 C. OTHER INTERNATIONALS .....................................................................................................28 VII. PROSPECTS................................................................................................................. 29 A. COMMUNAL RISKS … BUT INCENTIVES TO TALK ...............................................................29 B. THE AGENDA ......................................................................................................................30 C. FIXING KATHMANDU FIRST ................................................................................................32 VIII. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 33 APPENDICES A. MAP OF NEPAL ...................................................................................................................35 B. GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................36 C. CHORONOLOGY OF KEY MADHES EVENTS..........................................................................38 D. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .......................................................................41 E. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA ....................................42 F. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES.........................................................44 Asia Report N°136 9 July 2007 NEPAL’S TROUBLED TARAI REGION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Unrest in the Tarai plains has exposed the weaknesses of The mood among Tarai residents is increasingly Nepal’s peace process, could derail elections for a confrontational, with collapse of trust between most constituent assembly in November and, if not properly Madhesis and the government. Most believe that further addressed, could start a new form of conflict. Madhesis – violence is likely. Unresolved grievances and the hangover plainspeople who are some one third of the country’s from the Maoist insurgency, especially the lack of population – have protested, sometimes violently, against reconciliation and the greater tolerance for violence, make the discrimination that has in effect excluded them from a volatile mix. The unrest has given a glimmer of hope to public life. Weeks of demonstrations and clashes between diehard royalists and Hindu fundamentalists, including political rivals recently left several dozen dead. The some from across the border, who see it as a chance to government has offered to address issues such as increased disrupt the peace process. electoral representation, affirmative action for marginalised groups and federalism but has dragged its feet over The mainstream parties have changed their rhetoric but implementing dialogue. Tension had been building for are as reluctant as ever to take action that would make for several years but was largely ignored by the political a more inclusive system. Strikes in the Tarai squeezed elites and international observers, and the scale of the Kathmandu but not enough to force immediate protest shocked even its own leaders. The problems will concessions. Mainstream parties, particularly the Nepali only be resolved by strengthening the national political Congress, rely on their Tarai electoral base but are unsure process and making it both inclusive and responsive – how to deal with the new state of flux. Unable to compete starting with free and fair elections to a constituent with Madhesi groups in radicalism, they have also been assembly later this year. ineffective at communicating the positive steps they have taken, such as reforming citizenship laws. Competition The Tarai plains stretch the length of the southern border within the governing coalition is hindering any bold and are home to half the total population, including many moves. For the Maoists, the Tarai violence was a wake-up non-Madhesis (both indigenous ethnic groups and recent call: much of it was directed against their cadres, whose migrants from the hills). With comparatively good appearance of dominance was shattered. Nevertheless, they infrastructure, agriculture, industrial development and remain well organised, politically coherent and determined access to India across the open border, the Tarai is crucial to reassert themselves. to the economy. It is also an area of great political importance, both as a traditional base for the mainstream Engaging in serious negotiations will be a delicate parties and as the only road link between otherwise process, with no party wanting to lose face. But the key inaccessible hill and mountain districts. issues are clear and still offer room for a reasonable compromise: The leaders of the Madhesi movement face difficult fair representation: the critical issue is ensuring the choices: they have mobilised public support but have also electoral system gives Madhesis a serious stake in angered powerful constituencies. They now need to decide the constituent assembly; between a strategy of accommodation or continued confrontation. The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) has federalism and autonomy: the government’s emerged as a powerful umbrella group but lacks an commitment to federalism has yet to translate organisational base and clear agenda. It is entering the into action; without pre-empting the constituent electoral fray but if it is to challenge the established parties, assembly, steps are needed to demonstrate more it must first deal with rival Madhesi politicians competing serious intent, such as formation of a technical for the same votes. There has also been a proliferation of research commission that could develop a Madhesi armed groups; some have expanded significantly knowledge base for future discussions; in numbers, and their strategy and attitudes will affect the political process. Nepal’s Troubled Tarai Region Crisis Group Asia Report N°136, 9 July 2007 Page ii rebuilding trust: confidence in national and local (a) revising the electoral system to ensure fair government will only come if there is decent representation of Madhesis and all other governance, public security based on local marginalised groups, including a fresh community consent and improved delivery of delineation of constituency boundaries if services; the mixed electoral