Pakistan: Sindh Coastal Community Development Project – Mangroves Raised by Coastal Forest Division Sindh Forest Department, Government Of

Environmental Monitoring Report

Final Monitoring Report June 2013

Pakistan: Sindh Coastal Community Development Project – Mangroves Raised by Coastal Forest Division Sindh Forest Department, Government of

Sindh At Shah Bundar & Keti Bundar

Prepared by International Union for Conservation of Nature, Pakistan Country Office for the Government of Sindh, Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank.

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 30 June 2013) Currency unit – pak rupees (PRs) PRs 1.00 = $ .01005 $1.00 = PRs. 99.5500

ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank CBO – community based organization CFD – Coastal Forest Department DFO – divisional forest officer CO – community organization EA – environmental assessment GIS – geographic information system GPS – global positioning system IUCN – International Union for Conservation Of Nature M&E – monitoring and evaluation MoU – memorandum of understanding NRSP – National Rural Support Programme PMU – project management unit SCCDP – Sindh Coastal Community Development Project SCD A – Sindh Coastal Development Authority SFD – Sindh Forest Department SRS – sample random sampling VO – village organization

This environmental monitoring report is a document of the borrower. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of ADB's Board of Directors, Management, or staff, and may be preliminary in nature.

In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

Final Monitoring Report Mangroves Raised by Coastal Forest Division Sindh Forest Department, Government of Sindh At Shah Bundar & Keti Bundar

International Union for Conservation of Nature, Pakistan Sindh Coastal Community Development Project (SCCDP) June, 2013

Prepared by

IUCN Pakistan

IUCN Pakistan Country Office 1 Bath Island Road, Karachi 75530, kistan

Tel: ++ 92 (21) 35861540-3 Fax: ++ 92 (21) 35861448, 5835760

Cover Photo: Ceriops tagal, Marwari Creek, Keti Bundar, May, 2013

Sindh Coastal Communities Development Project in Badin and Thatta Districts - IUCN Pakistan ii

Table of Contents

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 5 II. INTRODUCTION ...... 7 II. SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF MONITORING ...... 7 III. METHODOLOGY ...... 9 i. Pre-Planting Site Selection ...... 9 ii. Post-Planting Monitoring ...... 9 iii. Assessment of Survival/Success Percentage of Mangrove Plantations ...... 10 iv. Assessment of Planting Process and Approach ...... 11

IV. FINDINGS OF MONITORING & EVALUATION ...... 11 V. DISCUSSION ...... 22 i. Technical Aspect of the Project ...... 22 a. Estimated Survival Percentage ...... 22 b. Plant Growth ...... 23 c. Choice of Species and Planting Methodology ...... 24 d. Area Planted ...... 25 e. Container Plant Nursery ...... 28 ii. Planting Process and Approach ...... 31 a. Community Engagement ...... 31 b. Organisational Collaboration ...... 32

VI. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 32 Annexure I: Lists OF Randomly Selected Coordinates ...... 36 Annexure I: Lists OF Randomly Selected Coordinates ...... 37 Annexure II: Statistical Analysis ...... 38

Glossary

ADB: Asian Development Bank CBO: Community Based Organization CO: Community Organization CFD: Coastal Forest Division EA: Environmental Assessment GIS: Geographic Information System GPS: Global Positioning System IUCN: International Union for Conservation of Nature & Natural Resources M&E: Monitoring and Evaluation MoU: Memorandum of Understanding NRSP: National Rural Support Program PMU: Project Management Unit SCDA: Sindh Coastal Development Authority SFD: Sindh Forest Department SSCDP: Sindh Coastal Community Development Project SRS: Simple Random Sampling VO: Village Organization

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Sindh Coastal Community Development Project (SCCDP) aimed at reducing poverty among the poor inhabitants of the coastal zone of Thatta and Badin districts in Sindh. The project strategy was to help poor families by increasing their income, access to public services and their capacity to manage the natural resource based on which their livelihoods are dependent. The project envisaged implementation at two major technical levels, firstly, by undertaking mangrove restoration/rehabilitation activities and secondary by introducing aquaculture.

Pakistan’s mangrove ecosystem provides a number of valuable goods and services. They support the fisheries sector by serving as breeding grounds for shrimp and fish species. They are also a source of fuel wood and fodder for local communities. Mangroves play an important role in disaster protection by reducing the impacts of strong waves generated cyclones and storms in coastal areas.

The SCCDP is working towards increasing income, access to public services and capacity of local communities (who are mostly agriculturalists and fishermen) to manage the natural resource base on which they live. The Project also strives to improve conditions of coastal forestry and fisheries, as well as improve coastal zone management.

IUCN Pakistan has developed a monitoring framework for monitoring the process and approaches adopted in the planting of 10,000 ha plantation done by the Sindh Forest Department under the SCCDP project. The methodology follows the specified guidelines and indicators identified and prescribed in the monitoring framework. The monitoring approach involved several steps.

To establish a baseline, the sites were reconfirmed and intensively visited by IUCN staff jointly with the staff of the Coastal Forestry Division (CFD) of the Sindh Forest Department (SFD) during the months of Junuary to April each year. To select and assess the target area for 2013, a joint visit by the IUCN team and CFD staff was made in January, 2013 to establish the baseline. A GIS map was prepared and then shared with the Project Director, SCCDP and DFO-CFD, Karachi.

Monitoring of mangrove areas is a daunting task in terms of their inter-tidal characteristics, remoteness which are subject to tidal phenomenon which limits access to these areas. Hence, the ability to access and monitor planted areas are subject to suitable tide and weather conditions.

In order to assess survival and success percentage of new and previously planted areas, a Simple Random Sampling (SRS) approach was adopted. SRS is a widely used sampling approach to make inference about a population from data collected through the independently selected samples. Using SRS, randomly selected geographic locations were identified within the sites planted under the project at Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar. The randomization was undertaken on the basis of the extent of both East longitudinal and North latitudinal coordinates encompassing the entire planted areas.

The findings of the Fifth Monitoring Report reveal that the Sindh Forest Department has achieved the physical targets of mangrove plantations over 10,000 ha assigned to them, with the overall highly satisfactory level of survival or success. Up to 2013, the net area planted has been estimated 10,250 ha against reported area 10,000 ha by SDF, with a difference of 250 ha which makes 2.43% of the total target area which is surplus to the actual target. This indicates that the SFD has successfully achieved 100% target by June, 2013.

The observed survival percentage of plantation established in 2009-2012 has been estimated 76% at Keti Bundar and 74% at Shah Bundar which may be considered as a reasonably good success considering the adverse silvicultural and climatic factors. Moreover, the excellent survival rate was recorded in the areas planted during 2013, at Shah Bundar with 96% ad Keti Bundar 100% with overall success of 98%. In addition, the newly and old planted areas have a very good and profuse natural regeneration of Avicennia spp: which is coming up very well and needs immediate thinning operations in order to reduce the competition for food, light and space among the young growth.

The most important part of this excellent work is its maintenance of the young growth by the SFD field staff. Most of the plantations are still young and require strict vigilance as these areas have remained under the heavy grazing pressure by the herds of camel and water buffaloes in the past. It has been noticed in the monitoring exercise that the community/CBOs/VOs are still reluctant to take full charge of the mangrove plantations. As a result, the Sindh Forest Department has to play its effective role in maintaining the young plantations in the future. Moreover, a balanced and diverse species composition is to be preferred in future plantations.

Establishing mangrove nurseries in the target areas provided backbone support in maintaining the plantations during nonseeding months of the year. Training and skill imparting program for the field staff and community in nursery raising is value addition and a long term investment in the mangrove foresty. Skilled staff protected and looked after nurseries effectively and monitoring results shown that the mortality remained less over the project period. Good and healthy saplings were observed during the frequent monitoring process. The practice of raising container plant nursery should be continued for the purpose of maintenance, gap filling and restocking in failure areas as a back up for raising mangrove plantation in non-seeding season.

Progress reports (Notes), area maps/sketches, GPS coordinates, GIS map development are an effective tools and should be continued and priority be given as it has proved an effective means in planning, implementation, management and monitoring the areas tackled under SCCDP.

Under the project it has proved that technical and healthy monitoring and evaluation exercises should be a permanent feature of such interdepartmental and multidisciplinary project in future.

II. INTRODUCTION

The Sindh Coastal Community Development Project (SCCDP) is being implemented by the Sindh Coastal Development Authority (SCDA) in coastal areas of Thatta and Badin through government agencies (Sindh Forest Department., Sindh Fisheries Department, and District Governments) and non-government organizations (NRSP and IUCN) with different roles and responsibilities assigned to each of them. The objectives of the project are to:

i. Diversify household income generation options and access to service in ways sustainable to the fragile ecosystem ii. Improve coastal zone management by stabilising environmental degradation, protecting coastal areas from accelerated erosion iii. Strengthen institutional capabilities for coastal zone planning and development and management of fisheries resources

The complex nature of the project demands effective cooperation between organizations for successful implementation of the project in order to achieve the following outputs: i. Sustainable community managed income generating mangrove stands, pond/raft fisheries, and shell fisheries established ii. Transparent and accountable community-driven mechanisms for identification, implementation and operations and maintenance of civil works and public services in place

Under the sub-component improved coastal management, IUCNP is tasked with the planning and implementation of community planting, management and environmental assessment of aquaculture in the coastal areas of the Thatta and Badin districts. IUCN Pakistan’s key roles in the ADB funded ‘Sindh Coastal Community Development Project are:

i. To implement the Community Mangrove Planting component of the project – 350 ha on community owned property. ii. To monitor and evaluate both the 350 ha area, and the planting of 10,000 ha of mangrove by the Dept of Forestry on government owned land. iii. To monitor environmental impacts of the aquaculture related activities to be undertaken as part of the project.

In the role of consultant IUCN Pakistan has been working very closely with NRSP and Sindh Forest and Fisheries departments for the implementation of SCCDP.

II. SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF MONITORING

This monitoring and evaluation report pertains to old and new plantations that comprises of 2350 ha of new mangrove plantation established in 2013, 2000 ha in 2012 and 3000 ha in 2009- 2011 at Shah Bundar, 3000 ha in 2009-2011 at Keti Bundar by Sindh Forest Department–Coastal Forest Division (SFD-CFD) as per following details.

2350, 1800, 23% 17% 2013 2009 1400, 14% 2000, 2010 19% 2012 2800, 27% 2011

Mangrove Area Planted by SFD under SCCDP (ha) # Name of Site Year Wise Actual Area Planted (Ha) Total Area 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 (Ha) i. Keti Bundar 770 - 1300 716.5 832.5 3619 ii. Shah Bundar 1580 2000 1500 683.5 967.5 6731 Grand Total 2350 2000 2800 1400 1800 10,350

The objectives of the monitoring and evaluation are as follows:

i. Assess the quantity and quality of mangrove rehabilitation work undertaken by SFD- CFD and report the same to Project Executing agency. ii. Assess the quantum of natural regeneration within the planted areas which are surviving as a result of protection measures by Sindh Forest Department. iii. Provide technical feedback to the CFD on the deficiencies or shortfall in implementation of the mangrove rehabilitation component. iv. Enhance overall outcome of the mangrove rehabilitation sub-component.

Monitoring and Evaluation process over the project life

In the month of August, 2011 during the visit of Keti Bundar by the ADB mid-term mission, IUCN was specifically asked to revise the monitoring framework to assess natural regeneration within the planted areas which was emerging or surviving as a result of protection efforts by Sindh Forest Department.

Therefore, in accordance with para 55 of MoU of ADB mid-term review Mission (1-15 August 2011) the scope and monitoring methodology adopted under this report has been revised to include assessment of scale of natural regeneration in the planted area.

III. METHODOLOGY

IUCN Pakistan has developed a monitoring framework for monitoring the process and approaches adopted in the planting of 10,000 ha plantation done by Sindh Forest Department under the SCCDP project. The methodology follows the specified guidelines and indicators identified and prescribed in the monitoring framework. The monitoring approach involved several steps, as follows: i. Pre-Planting Site Selection

Monitoring of mangrove areas is a daunting task in terms of their inter-tidal characteristics, remoteness which are subject to tidal phenomenon which limits access to these areas. Hence, the ability to access and monitor planted areas is subject to suitable tide and weather conditions.

Nevertheless, the post planting monitoring by IUCN remained a continuous process throughout the period during which several joint visits of planted sites in Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar were carried out.

These visits were carried out during the various phases of implementation of mangrove component of the project by the Sindh Forest Department including site selection, area mapping, visits of ADB Missions, joint visits with PMU staff and finally for the assessment of survival/success percentage in the planted areas.

The purpose of these visits was to monitor mangrove plantation work, record GPS coordinates of planting sites for preparation of GIS maps of the planted areas and to ensure conformity of planted areas with the already identified sites. The GIS maps have also been used to assess the quantum of planted areas.

The final detailed field data collection was conducted from 17 to 20 May and on 22 June, 2013 at Keti Bundar and from 23 to 27 May, 2013 at Shah Bundar by the two field teams constituted by IUCN Pakistan. During these visits, the staff of CFD accompanied the field teams.

iii. Assessment of Survival/Success Percentage of Mangrove Plantations

The assessment of the survival percentage of mangrove planted areas is one of the important indicators identified in the monitoring framework. This assessment helps in evaluating effectiveness of planting approach, choice of species, protection measures, etc. adopted by CFD. It also provides a useful insight for subsequent corrective measures based on the lessons learnt.

The random sample locations were identified using quick random calculator which is available at http://www.graphpad.com/quickcalcs/randomn2.cfm. Based on this, sampling locations were identified for data collection in each of the project sites (Keti Bundar and Shah Bundar) separately for both newly planted areas and target areas tackled in previous years (2009-2013). The sample plots were well distributed to represent the entire planted areas. The list of randomly selected coordinates is annexed (Annexure I).

The randomly selected sample plots were located in the field using GPS. At each sampling location, fixed area plots measuring 10 m x 10 m were laid out. The sample plots were laid using a systematic procedure measuring 10m from the point of origin towards north, then 10m towards east, then 10m towards west and finally measuring 10m towards west (point of origin) to complete the square grid. The same procedure was adopted to lay out a sample plot on the opposite side.

At each sample plot, data pertaining to the number of surviving plants, the number of dead plants, type of species, height of plants, leaf count, etc. was recorded in datasheets developed for the purpose. In addition, natural regeneration and old naturally growing mangrove plants were also counted within each sample plot besides recording of general topographical and biological conditions, grazing, soil condition etc.

The field collected data was compiled using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and analysed for their statistical significance. The data were analysed to calculate various statistical parameters including, mean, variance, standard deviation to estimate the statistical significance of the sample data and make inference about the population. The significance of sample data was analysed by applying t-test statistic using 0.05% significance level (95% confidence). Based on this analysis conclusions were drawn about the mean plant survival of new plantations and success percentage of previous year’s plantations at both the project sites.

In all, data were recorded from sample plots laid out at 30 in new planted areas at Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar and 36 in old plantations randomly selected locations within the current and previous years’ planting sites at Keti Bundar, and Shah Bundar, as per following details.

# Site No. of Sampling Locations/Year of Planting Total 2013 2013* 2012 2011 2010 2009

1 Keti Bundar * 17 - 31 16 13 77

2 Shah 30 19 40 19 13 12 133 Bundar

Grand Total 30 36 40 50 29 25 21 0

2013*-In old planted areas (2009-2012), *- SFD’s Guinness World Record Mangrove Plantation iv. Assessment of Planting Process and Approach

This was undertaken through physical verification of planted sites and discussion with the field staff on planting approach, process and protection measures adopted to safeguard the planted areas. Photographs were also taken to know the ground position at various locations.

Areas & Site wise Target Achievement 2009-2013 Keti Bundar 3619, 35%

Shah Bundar 6731, 65%

IV. FINDINGS OF MONITORING & EVALUATION

It needs to be kept in mind that the monitoring and evaluation is a continuous process, the data and findings in this report kept evolving as the monitoring and evaluation process went on up to the project period (2009-2013).

eTh findings and analysis presented in this report pertain to the ground situation at the point in time when this M&E was undertaken i.e. May-June 2013. This situation may vary during the subsequent Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) exercise of the same areas.

The summary of M&E findings covering the various important parameters is shown as follows:

Parameter Findings 1. Site Selection The sites planted during 2013 concur with the sites identified by the IUCN jointly with staff of CFD at both sites (Keti Bundar and Shah Bundar). At both sites, sparse natural mangrove vegetation exists on mudflats covered by grass.

Parameter Findings 2. Area Planted The planting has been done on completely or partially blank mudflats and interspaces within the existing sparse natural vegetation of Avicennia marina at both the sites.

Based on GIS maps, the net tackled area at Shah Bundar during 2013 has been estimated to be approximately 1580 ha against 1500 ha claimed by SFD-CFD.

Whereas, the planted area at Keti Bundar is estimated to be 770 ha against reported area of 500 ha by SFD-CFD (Area planted in GWR).

Hence, the total area planted under the project comes to be (10,350)ha against the reported area of 10000 ha planted by SFD-CFD.

Graphical Represtation of Area Planted at Both Sites

12000

10350

10000

8000 Shah Bundar, 6731 Bundar, Shah

6000 hactares

4000 Keti Bundar, 3619 2800 2350 1800 2000 2000 1400

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009-2013

Parameter Findings 3. Choice of species During 2013, the Rhizophora species was preferred for planting on 100% area both at Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar sites.

In 2012, the species planted included mainly Rhizophora (58%), Avicennia (34%) and Ceriops (7%) at Shah Bundar.

Over All Species Composition Pattern

4% 36%

Avicennia Rhizophora 60% Ceriops

Parameter Findings 4. Planting Pattern The planting pattern involved linear-block fashion with overall 10’x10’ spacing between plants and rows. In most of the areas the planting distance was found to be consistent with the spacing prescribed in the project document.

Species Composition Patterns

Ceriops

Rhizophora Keti Bundar Species Shah Bundar

Avicennia

0 20 40 60 80 Coverred Area (%)

Parameter Findings 5. Survival Percentage Mangrove plantations raised during 2013 at Shah Bundar showed 96 % survival success and 1 00% at Keti Bundar* respectively. (Data collected in June, 2013 and Area was planted in GWR). The actual survival percentage may vary and depends on the growth and germination pattern of the propagules planted under the remaining target of 2000 ha in 2013. The monitoring phase for the newly planted area covers only the verification of the area and verification of the number of hectares planted in the 2013 from months of May - June, 2013 )

Whereas, the survival percentage at Shah Bundar was recorded as 74% (72% in 2011) and at Keti Bundar 76% (77% in 2011) during the current year monitoring. The data variation reflects that it has improved by 2% at Shah Bundar and decreased by 1% at Keti Bundar, which is satisfactory survival level in the planted areas (2009-2012).

Comparative Survival Patterens - Year Wise

100

80 60 40 Over All 20 Percentage 0 Keti Bundar 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Keti Bundar 76 84 87 0 100 Shah Bundar 64 70 81 61.5 96 Over All 70 77 84 61.5 98

Parameter Findings 6. Success Percentage of previous Old mangrove plantations raised by CFD years’ mangrove plantations during 2009 to 2011 at Keti Bundar (2849 ha) showed 76 % overall survival and success rate and at Shah Bundar (5151 ha), showed overall survival 74% (Data collected in May, 2013)

The mangrove plantation raised during 2012 at Shah Bundar, showed the overall survival

61.5%. The most obvious reason for a lower level of success appeared to be the poor seed year for mangroves in Pakistan. The seed growth vigor was poor and this along with some wrong selection of species for planting i.e. planting of Rhizophora in high/low lands and barren mudflats, resulted in a low rate of inundation in highlands and washing in low lands. This also caused planted propagules to be flushed away due to fast receding tidal flows in low lands. At some places the barren mud flats with high salinity were also tackled.

Parameter Findings 7. Planting Process and Approach SFD used community involvement approach in the management of mangrove forests in Indus Delta by deploying the local community, CBO’s identified by the NRSP for raising nurseries and plantations

The indirect role of NRSP in community mobilization for mangrove planting component was observed, as the plantation watchers belonged to COs organized by NRSP. IUCN Pakistan organized trainings jointly with SFD before the start of planting seasons wherein the participating communities, field staff, labourers and plantation watchers were trained in different aspects of mangrove planting processes including site selection, choice of species and nursery raising.

The local populations have started the appreciating the mangrove plantation work jointly with them as they are the end users. This initiative of the community involvement by SFD and the management of natural resources jointly well received at different forums and appreciated. As in many countries governments are keen to involve the communities in the management of natural resources as this approach has proved to be successful in the sustainable management of resources.

Parameter Findings 8. Adopted Protection Measures In Shah Bundar, four members of the regular staff of CFD are involved in the protection of the planted areas. In addition, seven community members have been engaged as paid watchers to undertake regular patrolling of the area.

In order to protect the area from camel grazin g, wire fencing has been done at potential camel crossings. The current protection measures were so far found effective as the previously grazed and stunted mangrove vegetation is in the process of recovery.

Natural recovery of such areas due to these protective measures may be considered as incremental benefits of the project interventions and an achievement. Due to protection measures the rate of the natural growth is also appreciable as all the mud flats are well covered with natural growth and regeneration.

At Keti Bundar, four members of the regular forest staff and six watchers/chowkidars (on contractual basis) have been engaged in the protection of the plantation.

Additionally, through negotiation with the local Jat community a corridor has been provided and left as a passage for their camel movement to avoid damage to planted areas tackled by CFD.

Natural Regeneration Parameter Findings Estimation of Natural Regeneration Due to regular protection and conservation of the planted stock profuse natural regeneration of Avicennia has been observed in the planted areas. There is also notable increases in number of naturally regenerating saplings within the planted areas.

The number of naturally regenerating saplings at Keti Bundar has been estimated in 2013 as 2536 saplings/ha and 477 saplings/ha at Shah Bundar (2009-2012).

The number of naturally regenerating saplings at Keti Bundar has been estimated to be 763, 1659 and 3619 saplings/ha within the planted areas during 2011, 2010 and 2009 respectively.

Whereas, the number of naturally regenerating saplings within the planted areas at Shah Bundar has been estimated to be 258, 77 and 512 saplings/ha within the planted ar eas during 2011, 2010 and 2009 respectively.

If these planted areas are protected continuously, the incremental benefits of natural regeneration may overshadow the number of plants actually planted under the project. Hence, this will be a great achievement of SFD in terms that due to plantation, conservation and site protection efforts the barren areas once fully covered with mangroves, recovered back to the natural state.

Recovery of old Natural Mangrove Vegetation Parameter Findings Estimation of Old Natural Growth A lot of natural old growth of Avicennia spp. was observed recovering within the planted areas due to consistent protection against animal grazing.

At Keti Bundar the number of recovering old naturally growing plants has been estimated to be8 6 , 325 and 250 plants/ha within the areas planted during 2011, 2010 and 2009, respectively. The height of these plants varied from’. 3’-5

Whereas, at Shah Bundar, the number of recovering old naturally growing mangrove plants was estimated to be 63, 0 and 129 plants/ha within the planted areas during 2011, 2010 and 2009 respectively. The height of these plants varied from 1.5’-5’.

If protected continually, these may be considered as incremental benefits of the project.

Biodiversity Improvement in Planted Areas Parameter Findings Biodiversity Status In the SFD planted area's biodiversity has improved significantly and the Crabs(Mud Crab), Bird species, Butterfly species were observed on the mud flats/mangroves and in creeks during the monitoring visits

V. DISCUSSION

Based on field visit, the following observations related to technical aspects and adopted planting approach have been recorded. These observations/comments would provide useful direction and guidance for similar future interventions/projects in the Indus Delta. i. Technical Aspect of the Project a. Estimated Survival Percentage

Based on the analysis of the field data the survival % in the mangrove areas planted under the project at Keti Bundar and Shah Bundar during various years is summarized in Table I.

Table I: Survival/success % of Mangrove Areas Planted under SCCCDP Site Survival/Success % 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 % % % % %

Keti 100* - 87 84 76 Bundar -

Shah 96 61.5 81 70 64 Bundar

Overall 98 61.5 84 77 70

* The data reflects the verification of planted area (GWR, 22 June, 2013 )

The detailed statistical analysis for Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar is shown as Annexure –II.

The survival rate in newly planted areas in 2013, at Shah Bundar was recorded as 96% and 100% at Keti Bundar with overall 98% success level was recorded at both sites. At Keti Bundar, the aggregate survival/success in areas planted since 2009 was found to be 76% in 2013 (77% recorded in 2011) against the aggregate survival/success of 74% in 2013 (72% recorded in 2011) as were observed at Shah Bundar in May, 2013.

A very consistent level of survival/success was observed at both sites, apparently due to a regular level of protection of the entire planted areas.

b. Plant Growth

At Shah Bundar the growth of Rhizophora is good, in the grassy mudflats covered with sparse natural vegetation of Avicennia. The height of Rhizophora plants varied from 14”-26” and leaf count 10-14 leaves in the plantations raised by CFD-SFD in 2012. The height of Avicennia plants varied from 11”-16” and leaf count was observed between 10-30 leaves in these plantations. The height of Ceriops Tagal plants varied from 7”-11” and leaf count 6-106.

As far as previous year’s plant growth is concerned, at Keti Bundar, good growth of Rhizophora was observed in the grassy mud flats covered with sparse natural vegetation of Avicennia. The height of Rhizophora plants varied from 10”-4’ and leaf count 10-56 leaves in plantations raised in different years. The height of Avicennia plants varied from 4”-3’ and leaf count 18-700 leaves in plantations raised in different years.

Similarly, at Shah Bundar, good growth of all mangrove species in the grassy mudflats was observed in the areas covered with sparse natural vegetation of Avicennia. The height of Rhizophora plants varied from 16”-3’ and leaf count 10-36 leaves in plantations raised during 2009-2011. The height of Avicennia plants varied from 10”-2’ and leaf count 14-60 leaves in the plantations raised during the years of from 2011 - 2009.

The damaged natural vegetation with stunt growth due to overgrazing by camels was also found to be recovering at various places due to the vigilance of the protective staff of SFD. c. Choice of Species and Planting Methodology

Under the technical features of the project, two main species of mangroves Avicennia and Rhizophora have to be planted in mixed and single species clusters and belts of 50 to 100 meters width, and at a density of approximately 1100 plants per ha’. However, the specific definition of “cluster” has not been prescribed in PC-I. Unless otherwise specified, the density of 1100 plants/ha prescribed in the PCI appears to reflect normal practice of raising mangrove plantation blocks at 10’x10’ spacing i.e. one plant per nine square meters.

The field observations revealed that separate blocks of single species have been planted at both the sites. The Avicennia and Ceriops were planted through seeds and Rhizophora were sown through propagules directly.

The monoculture approach was adopted in the current year plantation at Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar and Rhizophora macronata species was planted (100%) at both sites in 2013.

The species composition in the areas planted Shah Bundar during 2012 includes Rhizophora (58%); Avicennia (34%) and Ceriops (7%). Much balanced and diverse species composition was observed at Shah Bundar in the areas planted during this year.

At Keti Bundar, Rhizophora appeared to be the single most species planted during 2011 occupying almost 89% of the total planted area. The remaining 11% area was planted with Avicennia. This approach reflects a significant shift from a much balanced and diverse species composition followed during the previous years and as prescribed in PC-I. The most obvious reasons for this approach seem to be easier planting of Rhizophora propagules as compared to planting of other mangrove species.

As far as previous years’ mangrove plantations are concerned, the species composition in the areas planted at Keti Bundar during 2010 includes Avicennia (53%), Rhizophora (47%); whereas, the species composition planted during 2009 includes Avicennia (54%), Rhizophora (43%) and mixed species (13%).

A much balanced and diverse species composition was observed at Shah Bundar in the areas planted during 2011 which included Avicinnea (47%), Rhizophora (37%) and Ceriops (11%). Whereas, species composition in the areas planted at Shah Bundar during 2010 included

Avicennia (85%), Rhizophora (15%), and the species composition planted during 2009 includes Avicennia (83%), Rhizophora (17%).

A comparative species wise composition of planted area is shown in Table II & III.

Table II: Species-wise composition & % at Shah Bundar and Estimated Coverage # Species Year of Planting 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Est. Est. (%) Est. (%) Est. (%) Est. (%) Area (%) Area Area Area Are (Ha) (Ha) (Ha) (Ha) a (Ha)

1 Avicennia - - 34% 680 47% 698 85% 570 83% 785 2 Rhizophora 100% 1580 58% 1160 37% 549 15% 101 - - 3 Ceriops - - 8% 160 11% 163 - - - - 4 Blank - - - 5% 74 - - 17% 161 Total 100% 1580 100% 2000 100% 1485 100% 671 100% 946

Table III: Species-wise composition & % at Keti Bundar # Species Year of Planting 2013 2011 2010 2009 (%) Est. Area (%) Est. (%) Est. (%) Est. Area (Ha) Area Area (Ha) (Ha) (Ha)

1 Avicennia - - 11% 148 47% 290 54% 443 Rhizophora 100 % 707 89% 1200 53% 326 33% 271 Ceriops ------Mixed (Avicennia+ - - - - - 13% 106 ceriops/ Rhizophora) Blank ------Total 100% 770 100% 1348 100% 616 100% 820 The higher survival percentage of all mangrove species were observed on grassy mud flats with scattered natural growth of Avicennia. Hence, it is suggested to plant Rhizophora only in grassy mudflats. Completely barren and low-lying mudflats should be avoided for Rhizophora planting in future projects/interventions.

In the barren areas with suitable soil conditions, direct seed sowing or wildlings of Avicennia may be preferred. Moreover, it is emphasized that wherever possible mixed plantation of mangrove species shall be preferred for better environmental benefits. d. Area Planted

In 2013 the analysis of maps based on GIS of the actual area planted at Shah Bundar has been estimated to be 1580 ha against the reported area of 1500 ha and at Keti Bundar 770 ha against the reported area of 500 ha. The net difference in the actual planted area and reported area comes to plus 350 ha against the total target of 2000 ha allocated to SFD-CFD for year, 2013 under the project.

Similarly, based on GIS maps the actual area planted at Keti Bundar has been estimated to be 3554 ha against the reported area of 3349 ha. Whereas, the actual area planted at Shah Bundar

was estimated to be 6696 ha against the reported area of 6651 ha. The net difference in actual planted area and reported area comes to be plus 250 ha against the total target of 10,000 ha allocated to SFD-CFD under the project. A comparative position of actual area planted under the project since 2009 and the area reported by SFD-CFD is shown in Table IV.

Volunteer Planters celeberating after setting GWR by planning 847,275 propagules in one day

Table IV: Comparative Position of Actual and Reported Area Planted under SCCDP Since 2009 Site Keti Bundar Shah Bundar

Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Total 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Total

Actual Area Planted 70 7 0 1348 616 820 355 4 158 0 2014 1485 671 946 666 9 (Ha)

SFD -CFD Reported 500 0 1300 716.5 832.5 3349 1500 2000 1500 683.5 967.5 6651 (Ha)

Difference +270 0 +48 -100.5 -12.5 +205 +80 14 -15 -12.5 -21.5 +45

e. Container Plant Nursery

At Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar, two mangrove nurseries were maintained during 2013 and these were restocked from January to May, 2013 at both sites. Overall, 442,215 saplings of various mangrove species were present in both nurseries during field monitoring in the month of May-June, 2013 as indicated in Table, V & VII. At Keti Bundar the stock position was 198,215 and at Shah Bundar was 244,000 respectively.

As per stock register of CFD, the stock position reported at Keti Bundar is 208,333 which is reflected in Table VI, and 223,333 at Shah Bundar which is reflected in Table VIII. The overall stock position shown on both sites is 431,666. The remaining nursery stock is 10,549 saplings as per calculation which will be utilized in the maintenance of the planted areas in future.

The overall picture of opening stock balance at CFD nurseries, new raising and stock consumption species wise is shown in Tables VI and VIII.

Table V: Container Plant Stock Position at Keti Bundar Nursery # Species No of Beds Saplings Per Bed Total No of Saplings 1 Ceriops tagal 7 975 6825 Sub Total 6825 2 Rhizophora mucronata 18 1540 27720 29 1040 30160 26 1120 29120 25 910 22750 29 1000 29000 37 720 26640 Sub Total 165390 3 Blank 25 1040 26000 Sub Total 26000 Total 198215

SFD Mangrove Nursery at Keti Bundar

Table VI: Container Plants Raising as per Stock Register at Keti Bundar Nursery Container Plants Raising As Per Stock Register At Keti Bundar Nursery

Month Species Opening New Consumption Closing Balance Raising Balance Nov: 2012 Rhizophora mucronata 160000 0 35000 125000 Avicennia marina 10500 0 0 10500 Sub Total 170500 0 0 135500 35000 Dec: 2012 Rhizophora mucronata 125000 0 60000 65000 Avicennia marina 10500 0 5500 5000 Sub Total 135500 0 65500 70000

Jan: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 65000 50000 65000 50000 Avicennia marina 5000 5000 0 Sub Total 70000 50000 70000 50000

Feb: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 50000 0 0 50000 Sub Total 50000 0 0 50000

Mar: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 50000 0 0 50000 Sub Total 50000 0 0 50000

Apr: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 50000 0 35000 15000 Sub Total 50000 0 35000 15000

May: Rhizophora mucronata 15000 208333 15000 208333 2013 Sub Total 15000 208333 15000 208333 Total − 258333 220500 −

SFD Mangrove Nursery at Shah Bundar

Table VII: Container Plant Stock Position at Shah Bundar Nursery # Species No of Beds Saplings Per Bed Total No of Saplings Nursery – I 1 Avicennia marina 12 1800 21600 11 1500 16500 Sub Total 38100 2 Aegicerus corniculatum 12 910 10920 9 720 6480 Sub Total 17400 3 Ceriops tagal 18 960 17280 10 1980 19800 Sub Total 37080 4 Rhizophora mucronata 15 1980 29700 17 3960 67320 Sub Total 97020 Total Nursery-I 189600 Nursery – II 1 Rhizophora mucronata 35 560 19600 18 720 12960 28 780 21840 Sub Total 54400 Total Nursery-II 54400 G.Total 244000

Table VIII: Container Plants Raising as per Stock Register at Shah Bundar Nursery Container Plants Raising As Per Stock Register At Shah Bundar Nursery

Month Species Opening New Consumption Closing Balance Raising Balance Nov: 2012 Rhizophora mucronata 100003 0 0 100003 Avicennia marina 75000 0 0 75000 Ceriops tagal 670 0 0 670 Aegicerus corniculatum 5000 0 0 5000 Sub Total 180673 0 0 180673

Dec: 2012 Rhizophora mucronata 100003 0 30003 70000 Avicennia marina 75000 0 25000 50000 Ceriops tagal 670 0 0 670 Aegicerus corniculatum 5000 0 0 5000 Sub Total 0 55003 306343

Jan: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 70000 0 30000 40000 Avicennia marina 50000 0 25000 25000 Ceriops tagal 670 35000 0 35670

Aegicerus corniculatum 5000 15000 5000 15000 Sub Total 50000 115003 115670

Feb: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 40000 0 20000 20000 Avicennia marina 25000 0 15000 10000 Ceriops tagal 35670 0 0 35670 Aegicerus corniculatum 15000 0 0 15000 Sub Total 0 35000 80670

Mar: Rhizophora mucronata 20000 0 20000 0 2013 Avicennia marina 10000 0 10000 0 Ceriops tagal 35670 0 0 35670 Aegicerus corniculatum 15000 0 0 15000 Sub Total 0 30000 50670

Apr: 2013 Rhizophora mucronata 0 0 0 0 Avicennia marina 0 0 0 0 Ceriops tagal 35670 0 20000 15670 Aegicerus corniculatum 15000 0 0 15000 Sub Total 0 20000 30670

May: Rhizophora mucronata 0 126333 0 126333 2013 Avicennia marina 0 40000 0 40000 Ceriops tagal 15670 40000 15670 40000 Aegicerus corniculatum 15000 2000 0 17000 Sub Total 208333 15670 223333 Total − 258333 270676 − ii. Planting Process and Approach a. Community Engagement

The planting process followed by SFD-CFD represented a conventional approach, mixed with community engagement in the process. The indirect role of NRSP in community mobilization for mangrove planting component was found useful, as community members from the organized communities participated in the plantation campaigns.

IUCN Pakistan organized trainings jointly with SFD before the start of planting season wherein the participating communities, field staff, labourers and plantation watchers were formally trained in different aspects of mangrove planting processes including site selection, choice of species and nursery raising.

b. Organisational Collaboration

As per project design, IUCN has been assigned the role of continuous monitoring of departmental mangrove component in addition to the Environmental Assessment (EA) and monitoring of crabs and fishing ponds. Beneficiaries income generating activities have been encouraged to be environmentally friendly and sustainable through the ongoing work of NRSP and IUCN to train fishermen/villagers in the approaches and in overall sustainable environmental management IUCN Pakistan as particularly monitored and reported on the SFD plantations and the Shrimps & crab ponds under the Sindh Coastal Community Development Project. All the concerned departments including IUCN, NRSP and Sindh Forest Department involved in their sphere in order to monitor and evaluate the coastal community development works.

VI. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

1. The overall conclusion is that the Sindh Forest Department has attempted the target of mangrove plantation over 10,000 ha assigned to them under SCCDP with the overall highly satisfaction level of survival or success.

2. Up to 2013 the net area planted has been estimated 10,250 ha against reported areas 10,000 ha by SFD, with a net difference of 250 ha which makes 2.43% of the total target area which is surplus to the actual target. The Sindh Forest Department successfully achieved 100% target by June 2013. The Sindh Forest Department sets Guiness World Record on June 22, 2013 by planting 847,275 (770 ha) mangrove propagules in Turchan Creek at Kharo Chan in one day time.

3. The excellent survival rate was recorded in the areas planted during 2013, at Shah Bundar with 96% and at Keti Binder 100%, with overall success of 98%.

4. Monoculture approach was adopted in 2013 plantation and single species (Rhizophora) were preferred at both the sites (Shah Bundar and Keti Bundar).

5. The observed percentage of survival (2009-2012 plantation) has been estimated 76% at at Keti Bundar and 74% at Shah Bundar, which may be considered as a reasonably good success considering the adverse silvicultural and climatic factors. However the rate of growth and overall health of the plantations were found good.

6. In the newly planted area the natural regeneration of Avicennia Spp: is coming up very well and it needs immediate thinning operations in order to reduce the competition for food, light and space among the young growth.

7. Establishing mangrove nurseries in the target areas provided backbone support in maintaining the plantations during nonseeding months of the year. Training and skill imparting program for the field staff and community in nursery raising is value addition and a long term investment in the mangrove foresty. Skilled staff protected and looked after nurseries effectively and monitoring results shown that the mortality remained less over the project period. Good and healthy saplings were observed during the frequent monitoring process. The practice of raising container plant nursery should be continued for the purpose of maintenance, gap filling and restocking in failure areas as a back up for raising mangrove plantation in non-seeding season.

8. The area has a history of grazing of camels and live stock. In order to protect them from grazing/browsing and tampering, especially in winter when the forage and fodder is scarce inland, the protection staff has to be vigilant round the clock.

9. Maintenance of the young mangroves plantations should be a priority for the field staff. There is a frequent change in climatic conditions and the oceanographic regime, which disturbs the growth rate of mangrove plants. Most of the plantations are still young and require continuous maintenance.

10. Unfortunately, the community/CBOs are still reluctant to take full charge of the mangrove plantations. As a result, SFD has to play its limited role in maintenance of young plantations in the future. Although, various coastal community development works have opened the venues in terms of some monetary benefits for the coastal communities, yet the time is required to acknowledge them . This has led to a slow down of activities under environmental awareness raising programs.

11. Despite the delay in starting the project, SFD has shown good progress in restoration of mangroves. Initiatives involving communities have been largely successful. However, future work will depend upon strategic priorities set out by the programme and upon donor responses to related project proposal.

12. A lot of naturally regenerating saplings and old scattered natural growth of Avicinnea continue to emerge with in the planted areas due to protection efforts.

13. A balanced and diverse species composition is to be preferred in future plantations. Avicennia being more a salinity-tolerant mangrove species in the Indus Delta shall be preferred in difficult areas in planting activities. Rhizophora planting in blank and open mudflats should be avoided. It should only be planted in areas surrounded by sparse natural vegetation of Avicennia or in grassy mudflats covered with Aleuropus and Arthrocnemum grasses.

14. In the areas where natural regeneration is more profuse, protection of area shall be given priority.

15. Progress reports (Notes), area maps/sketches, GPS coordinates, GIS map development are an effective tools and should be continued and priority be given as it has proved an effective means in planning, implementation, management and monitoring the areas tackled under SCCDP

16. Monitoring and evaluation exercise should be a permanent feature of such interdepartmental and multidisciplinary projects. .

Turchan Creek, Kharo Chan, map Shared by Sindh Forest Department, 2013 35

Annexure I: Lists OF Randomly Selected Coordinates Based on http://www.graphpad.com/quickcalcs/randomn2.cfm

Shah Bundar Shah Bundar North Latitude (Extent 23⁰ ' " to ⁰ ' ") North Latitude (Extent 23 ⁰ ' " to ⁰ ' ") East longitude (Extent 67⁰ ' " to ⁰ ' ") East longitude (Extent 67⁰ ' " to ⁰ ' ")

# North Latitude East Logitude North Latitude East Logitude 1 ° '."N °'."E ° '."N °'."E 2 ° '."N °'."E ° '."N °'."E 3 ° '."N °'."E ° '."N °'."E 4 ° '."N °'."E ° '."N °'."E 5 ° '."N °'."E ° '."N °'."E 6 ° '."N °'."E 7 ° '."N °'."E 8 ° '."N °'."E 9 ° '."N °'."E 10 °'."N °'."E 11 ° '."N °'."E 12 24° '."N °'."E 13 °'."N °'."E 14 ° '."N °'."E 15 °'."N °'."E 16 ° '."N °'."E 17 ° '."N °'."E 18 ° '."N °'."E 19 ° '."N °'."E 20 ° '."N °'."E 21 ° '."N °'."E 22 ° '."N °'."E 23 ° '."N °'."E 24 ° '."N °'."E 25 ° '."N °'."E

Annexure I: Lists OF Randomly Selected Coordinates Based on http://www.graphpad.com/quickcalcs/randomn2.cfm 2009-2012

Shah Bundar Keti Bundar North Latitude (Extent 240 07’ 22” to 240 11’ 15”) North Latitude (Extent 240 08’ 18” to 240 11’ 38”) East longitude (Extent 670 47’ 02” to 670 49’ 50”) East longitude (Extent 670 22’ 56” to 670 27’ 44”)

# North Latitude East Logitude North Latitude East Longitude 1 24 09 30 673 48 4 243 08 4 676 25 5 2 245 10 1 670 47 2 24 10 17 67 26 31 3 24 07 50 67 48 14 24 09 52 67 25 01 4 247 08 2 679 49 1 24 09 23 67 26 47 5 24 08 08 678 47 4 24 09 44 67 26 23 6 241 10 5 673 48 3 240 11 0 67 23 05 7 248 10 1 673 48 2 24 10 30 67 25 22 8 24 07 38 674 49 0 24 09 49 670 23 5 9 24 09 29 67 47 52 24 10 53 67 26 02 10 244 09 5 673 47 5 24 10 42 679 23 5 11 24 05 17 67 49 42 24 09 56 67 26 53 12 24 05 24 675 50 1 24 09 36 677 25 5 13 24 04 45 67 49 56 24 10 10 67 25 04 14 244 10 0 676 24 2 15 24 10 40 679 26 5 16 24 09 35 67 26 56 17 24 09 25 677 24 0

Shah Bundar North Latitude (Extent 240 03’ 50” to 240 06’ 00”) East longitude (Extent 680 01’ 38” to 680 03’ 42”)

18 240 05 4 681 02 4 19 24 04 57 68 02 30 20 244 04 3 684 03 3 21 24 04 14 685 02 0 22 24 05 13 683 0 11 23 24 03 56 68 03 09

ANNEXURE – II: Statistical Analysis

Shah Bundar 2013:

The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:

Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of suied deviatios fo mean divided by degree of freedom, is given by:

Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.

Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:

S2 = 472.1834 (from Excel sheet) 59

S2 = 8.0031

Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants would be:

S= 8.0031 = 2.8289

Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S) n

SE(surviving plants) = 2.8289 60

SE = 0.365219

The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of mean population survival:

t > α/2, n-1 = t.025, 60 = 2.00 (from t-table)

Therefore: 2.8289 10.40 ± 2.00 60

= 10.40 ± 2.00 X 0.3652 = 10.40 ± 0.7304

Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % ( µ ) in all sample plots lies between 11.1304 plants/sample plot or1193 plants/ha (103%) and 9.669 plants/sample plot or 966 plants/ha (89%). In other words, the mean population plant survival is 10.40 plants/sample plot or 1040 plants/ha (96%) with a margin of error ± 0.7304 (7%).

Shah Bundar 2013 (2009,2010 & 2011):

The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:

Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of suied deviatios fo ea divided by degee of feedo, is give by:

Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.

Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:

S2 = 453.795 (from Excel sheet) 37

S2 = 12.2647

Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants would be:

S= 12.2647 = 3.502

Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S) n

SE(surviving plants) = 3.502 38

SE = 0.568

The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of mean population survival:

t > α/2, n-1 = t.025,18 = 2.101 (from t-table)

Therefore: 3.502 8 ± 2.021 38

= 8 ± 2.021 X 0.568 = 8 ± 1.1479

Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % ( µ ) in all transacts lies between 9.1479 plants/sample plot or 914 plants/ha (84%) and 6.8521 plants/sample plot or 685 plants/ha (63%). In other words, the mean population plant survival is 8 plants/sample plot or 800 plants/ha (74%) with a margin of error ± 1.1479aha (11%).

Keti Bundar 2013 (2009,2010 & 2011):

The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:

Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of suied deviatios fo ea divided by degee of freedom, is given by:

Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.

Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:

S2 = 360.138 (from Excel sheet) 33

S2 = 10.913

Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants would be:

S= 10.913 = 3.3035

Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S) n

SE(surviving plants) = 3.3035 34

SE = 0.5665

The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of mean population survival:

t > α/2, n-1 = t.025, 34 = 2.042 (from t-table)

Therefore: 3.3035 8.2352 ± 2.042 34

= 8.2352 ± 2.042 X 0.5665

= 8.2352 ± 1.1567

Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % ( µ ) in all transacts lies between 9.391 plants/sample plot or 940 plants/ha (87%) and 7.078 plants/sample plot or 708 plants/ha (66%). In other words, the mean population plant survival is 8.235 (76%) with a margin of error ± 1.156 (11%).

Shah Bundar & Keti Bundar 2013 (2009,2010 & 2011) (Both sites):

The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:

Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of suied deviations from mean divided by degree of freedom, is given by:

Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.

Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:

S2 = 884.8522 (from Excel sheet) 71

S2 = 12.4627

Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants would be:

S= 12.4627 = 3.5302

Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S) n

SE(surviving plants) = 3.5302 72

SE = 0.4209

The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of mean population survival:

t > α/2, n-1 = t.025,18 = 1.99 (from t-table)

Therefore: 3.502 8.111 ± 1.99 72

= 8.111 ± 1.99 X 0.4209 = 8.111 ± 0.8375

Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % ( µ ) in all transacts lies between 8.948 plants/sample plot or 914 plants/ha (83%) and 7.272 plants/sample plot or 685 plants/ha (67%). In other words, the mean population plant survival is 8.111 plants/sample plot or 811 plants/ha (75%) with a margin of error ± 0.8375aha (8%).

Shah Bundar 2012:

The sample variance and standard deviation could be calculated using the following formula:

Sample Variance = Sum (∑) of suied deviatios fo ea divided by degee of feedo, is give by:

Where X is sample value, and x is sample mean, n-1 is degree of freedom.

Sample variance (S2) for living plants could be calculated as follows:

S2 = 1237.08 (from Excel sheet) 79

S2 = 15.659

Sample Standard Deviation (S) is squire root of variance. Therefore, sample standard deviation (S) for living plants would be:

S= 15.659 = 3.957

Standard Error = = Standard Deviation (S) n

SE(surviving plants) = 3.957 80

SE = 0.442

The confidence interval for the population mean constructed at 0.05 significance level gives the following range of mean population survival:

t > α/2, n-1 = t.025,79 = 1.990 (from t-table)

Therefore: 3.957 6.575 ± 1.990 80

= 6.575 ± 1.990 X 0.442

= 6.575 ± 0.879

Hence, we are 95% confident that the mean population survival % ( µ ) in all sample plots lies between 7.454 plants/sample plot or 745 plants/ha (68%) and 5.696 plants/sample plot or 570 plants/ha (52%). In other words, the mean population plant survival is 6.575 plants/sample plot or 657 plants/ha (61.5%) with a margin of error ± 0.879 (8%).

Mangroves are salt tolerant plants that grow in inter-tidal zone in estuarine regions and deltas along coastlines and constitute important coastal wetland ecosystems. They protect coastlines, coastal cities, villages, hamlets, communities, and coastal installations from wind and tidal action, and are considered as major defensive shield against cyclones and tsunamis.

Mangrove ecosystems provide numerous goods and services including support to the fisheries sector by serving as breeding grounds for shrimp and fish species; acting as nesting grounds for numerous flora and fauna and providing fuelwood for communities and fodder for livestock. Pakistan has a long coastline extending to about 1,026km, along the coasts of Baluchistan and Sindh bordering the Arabian Sea. The Sindh province has a coastline of approximately 350 kilometres, a major portion of which comprises of the Indus Delta a Creek system on river Indus.

The Indus delta mangroves cover an area of 600,000 hectares (Ha) consisting of 17 major creeks and extensive mudflats and is one of the largest expanse of mangroves in the world extending from Korangi Creek in Karachi (west), to Sir Creek adjacent to the Indian border (east).

Pakistan’s mangrove ecosystem provides a number of valuable goods and services including supporting the fisheries sector: approximately 200 species of fishes are reported to be found from the Delta. In addition, mangroves are a nesting ground for wildlife of terrestrial and marine origin including green turtles, dolphins and migratory birds. Local communities depend on mangroves for household uses including construction and energy needs. Mangrove fodder is used for livestock and camel browse on these mangroves. Mangroves also hold strong potential as a source of earning from tourism and recreation.

Inadequate flows from upstream, indiscriminate cutting, grazing, lack of awareness, sea intrusion and pollution.

Indus delta was originally home to eight species, only four remain: Avicennia marina, Rhizophoramucronata, Ceriopstagaland Aegiceruscorniculatum.

Pakistan’s current mangrove forest cover is approximately 80, 000 Ha. It has declined rapidly over a period of past 80 years due to various anthropogenic reasons such as upstream cut off in Indus River water

INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

PAKISTAN PROGRAMME 1, Bath Island Road Clifton – 75500 Karachi, Pakistan Tel. +92 2135861540 Fax +92 21 35861544 www.iucn.org