UC San Diego Capstone Papers

Title Secret Powers & Pitfalls of the : A Guidebook to Marine Feedbacks for Decision makers

Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1qd4488b

Author Menzo, Zachary

Publication Date 2017-06-01

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Secret Powers & Pitfalls of the Climate: A Guidebook to Marine Feedbacks for Decision makers

______Scott Elliott: CAC Chair Date

______

Zachary Menzo June 2017 Capstone Report Scripps Institution of Oceanography Candidate for Master of Climate Science and Policy Table of Contents:

1. Executive Summary ……………………………………………………………. 2 2. Introduction ……..………………………………………………………..…….. 3 2.1. Policy ……..………………………………………………………..……….. 3 2.2. Deliverable …………………………………………………………………. 3 2.3. Target Audience ……....……………………………………..…………….. 3 2.4. Science ……..………………………………………………………..….…... 4 2.4.1. ………………………………………………..……... 4 2.4.2. Ice Plankton ………………………………………………..….……... 5 3. Statement of Need ………………………………………………………………. 6 4. Website Design ...….…………………………………………………...………... 6 4.1. Background Pages ………..………………………………………………… 6 4.1.1. “What is ?” …………………………………….……. 7 4.1.2. “What is a Feedback?” ………………………………………………. 7 4.1.3. “Why Should I Care?” ………………………………………….……. 7 4.2. Feedback Pages ..………….………………………………………………... 7 4.2.1. “Executive Summary” …….…………………………...……....…….. 7 4.2.2. “Background” ……..…………………………………..……...……… 8 4.2.3. “Feedback Steps” ……..………………………………..…..………... 8 4.2.4. “Climate Change Impact” ……..………………………..…..……….. 8 4.2.5. “Future Research” ……..…………………………………………….. 9 5. Quality Assurance ……..……………………………………………………….. 9 5.1. Alpha Launch ……..……………………………………………………...... 9 5.2. Beta Launch ……..…………………………………………………………. 9 5.3. Risk Assessment ……………………………………………………….…… 9 6. Marketing ……..………………………………………………………………… 10 6.1. Wix Promotional Tools ……..……………………………………………... 10 6.2. University Networking……..………………………………………………. 10 6.3. Facebook Advertisement ……..…………………………………………… 10 7. Budget …………………………………………………………………………… 11 7.1. Personal Expenses …………………………………………………………. 11 7.2. Non-Personal Expenses …………………………………………………… 11 8. Living Document …..……………..…………………………………………..… 11 9. Results …………………………………………………………………………... 12 10. Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… 12 11. References ……..……………………………………………………………...… 13 APPENDICIES ……..……………………….……………………………………… 14

1 1. Executive Summary

Future decision makers and bureaucrats must rely on data provided by Earth system models (ESMs) and analyses. Unfortunately, these models are often incomplete since many climate mechanisms are too complicated or poorly comprehended to recreate. Omission from ESMs means that the impact they have on climate is not represented in resulting analyses, leading to statistically biased results. Since there is no one policy which can resolve this problem, a new method is needed to present these oversights to the political community.

This project is a free and interactive website which represents the function and role of two marine biogeochemical feedbacks currently excluded from ESMs (www.marinefeedbacks.com). The website includes explanations for the DMS cloud- feedback which involves the release of DMS by causing an increase in cloud concentration, albedo, and lifetime. In addition to the ice chlorophyll feedback which occurs during summer months while phytoplankton bloom and produce heat, melting sea ice. Descriptions were designed for non-scientists and targets future decision makers and bureaucrats. What users will learn from the website can lead to a greater amount of legislation which accounts for biases in climate analyses.

Layout and design are fundamental to the website and project success. Every page included images or videos to keep content engaging while helping with explanations. Scientific terms, such as “thermohaline circulation” were replaced with more accessible descriptions, such as “Earth’s circulatory system.” Ultimately, the product presents significant facts and succinct descriptions while providing links with additional details. Included on the website is background information, executive summaries for each feedback, detailed explanation of their mechanisms, climate change impact, and future research.

The project was completed under budget, costing $1,700. Expenses included $150 for the domain of the website, $1250 covering travel charges to submit and present the final product, and $300 for marketing funds. Currently, the website is being promoted by an advertisement campaign on Facebook and disseminated throughout student democratic networks at various universities.

2 2. Introduction

2.1 Policy One of the greatest challenges facing next-generation decision makers is handling climate change. For most, their understanding of mechanisms can be summarized by a few buzz words they hear, such as CO2 or rising sea level. It is because of this lack of understanding that new decision makers must rely on data provided by Earth system models (ESMs) and analyses. Unfortunately, models are often incomplete since many climate mechanisms are too complicated or poorly comprehended to recreate. For most this is not a significant problem, because the influence on climate is limited. However, scientists have recently begun to warn about under-representation of features known as marine biogeochemical feedbacks (mBGC). Experts are finding that some mBGC feedbacks may accelerate global warming while others may have a cooling effect. Omission from ESMs means that the impact mechanisms have on climate is not represented in resulting analyses, leading to statistically biased results. Since there is no one policy which can resolve this problem, a new method is needed to present these oversights to the political community.

2.2 Deliverable This project is a free and interactive website which represents mechanisms of two mBGC feedbacks and their role in the climate system. Users may also explore introductions to relevant concepts like climate change, natural feedbacks, and generating political analyses (www.marinefeedbacks.com). Descriptions were created for non-scientists, explaining complicated concepts through simple explanations, images, and examples. After its initial publication, the website will serve as a living document which can be continually developed to include additional feedbacks and future results.

2.3 Target Audience The project will target future decision makers and bureaucrats since they are still in an educational stage of their careers. Individuals during this time of transition are seeking letters of recommendation or future employment and are therefore willing to put in extra effort. Candidates report spending additional time focusing on their academic pursuits and research as it might benefit their future.1

Young decision makers will turn to the internet to accomplish this goal, accessing information and networking on social media. This project will take advantage of the time spent online and utilize Facebook to market directly to the target audience. Also, several student democratic organizations have agreed to promote the website throughout their network. The advertisement campaign will reach a wide audience, and the referral from a trusted group will increase effectiveness of the message.2

3 2.4 Science Currently, the website includes explanations for two mBGC feedbacks: DMS cloud- albedo (“Ocean Plankton”), and Ice Chlorophyll (“Ice Plankton”).

2.4.1 Ocean Plankton Some eukaryotic phytoplankton can produce and release a violate compound known as (DMS, CH3SCH3). When emitted into the atmosphere, DMS can increase cloud concentration, albedo, and lifetime.3 Since clouds play a pivotal role in the radiative budget of Earth, understanding the DMS cycle and its modification due to climate change may be of extreme importance.

Phytoplankton release DMS to deter predators, during degradation near death, or when grazed upon by larger . Once DMS passes into the atmosphere, it is quickly oxidized. The net reaction produces several products, mostly consisting of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and a few other negligible compounds. SO2 then reacts with a hydroxide ion 2- 4 2- forming a sulfate aerosol particle (SO4 ). Production of SO4 is significant to the 2- radiative budget, since SO4 directly scatters incoming solar radiation and acts as a cloud condensing nucleus (CCN).5 CCN are required to form a cloud and DMS serves as a principal source over worldwide.6 A greater abundance of CCN allows smaller water droplets to form, increasing concentration and total surface area of droplets within a cloud. Producing clouds with a higher albedo, and lower precipitation rate (longer lifetimes) influences the amount of incoming solar radiation.5

DMS is famously known for its role in the CLAW hypothesis. First presented in 1987, the publication stated that DMS was a part of a cycle which would act to reduce changes from global warming.4 Since CLAW first appeared; scientists have continued to study DMS and its potential effects. Recently, serious doubts have been raised as to whether the feedback will act to mitigate consequences of climate change. Some data suggests its impact may even be positive, amplifying global warming.

[Figure 1]: Selected images used throughout the project to illustrate the DMS cloud- albedo feedback

4 2.4.2 Ice Plankton During the beginning of summer, at higher latitudes, increase in begins an annual ablation of sea ice. With a greater portion of ocean surface exposed to sunlight, there is an observed bloom in phytoplankton abundance. The new microbe communities utilize excess sunlight for , radiating heat as a result and further melting sea ice.7 Given the high albedo of ice and high heat capacity of the ocean, this mBGC feedback may induce an ice-albedo interaction leading to a catastrophic runaway effect.

Similarly, phytoplankton can survive on top of, or within sea ice acting as additional sources of heat. Plankton have been observed to bloom near the edges, on top of sea ice due to high supply of nutrients provided by crashing waves or snow sinking.8 Also, in the Antarctic, summer warmth causes ice to thin, allowing sunlight to pass through some sea ice, melting a layer parallel with the ocean surface. This “gap layer” enables phytoplankton and their predators to infiltrate, resulting in a significant contribution of heat production within sea ice.9 Finally, the highest rate of phytoplankton proliferation occurs along the bottom of the pack. Its consistent saturation of nutrients allows phytoplankton to enter sea ice, protecting themselves from predation while utilizing sunlight to undergo photosynthesis, producing heat.10

Biological activity of phytoplankton both around and within sea ice may lead to an increase in ice loss at high latitudes. Ultimately, this accelerates one of the most dangerous consequences of a warming climate in addition to possibly altering the structure and stability of local food chains, and ocean circulation.7, 11

[Figure 2]: Selected images used throughout the project to illustrate the chlorophyll feedback

5 3. Statement of Need

A simple and inexpensive method to include mBGC feedbacks into ESMs does not exist. Instead, this project informs future decision makers about potential dangers and economic costs associated with these natural phenomena. Although presenting uncertainty of mBGC feedbacks in the past has not been successful, targeting a different audience with an innovative deliverable offers a new and inexpensive solution.

Despite not providing any clear returns, once complete, the website requires no maintenance. However, the project is a living document, implying any scientist could sustain and expand the information included. Costs to retain the domain are reasonable and allows respected scientists to commutate with future decision makers, fostering a relationship that benefits both parties.

4. Website Design

Layout and design are fundamental to the website and project success. Given the complex nature of mBGC feedbacks communicated and the non-scientific audience targeted, information needed to be presented in a clear and concise manner. To do this, nearly every page included images or videos to keep content engaging while helping with explanations. Also, scientific terms, such as “thermohaline circulation” were replaced with more accessible descriptions, such as “Earth’s circulatory system.” Finally, after speaking with several students within the political community, it was suggested that descriptions should be kept succinct including only the most relevant information. Therefore, content is displayed using a bullet format. Ultimately, each page presents significant facts and succinct descriptions while providing links with additional details for users that are curious or requiring further explanation.

The primary reference used when designing the website was Facebook. The social media site was chosen since more than half of the target audience is reported to have an account and check it daily.2 A simple and clean layout provides users with ease of navigation and universal approval. This arrangement along with the color scheme, link format, and curved box framing were all adapted for construction of the project.

4.1 Background Pages The first few pages displayed on the menu are entitled, “Background.” This section includes three topics which may be necessary information for some users before learning about any mBGC feedbacks. The background section presents limited information since there are numerous online resources already available to learn about these topics in greater detail. Each page includes brief descriptions, videos which provide necessary information in an engaging way, and additional links. For an image of the pages presented in this section refer to Appendix IV.

6 4.1.1 “What is Climate Change?” The first page relies heavily on videos explaining what climate change is, why the planet is warming, and some expected economic impacts from a 2˚C warming. There is also a short, written description provided to tie together all three videos and the overall concept.

4.1.2 “What is a Feedback?” The next topic begins with a brief video explaining what natural feedbacks are while demonstrating their importance. Once the video concludes, users are provided with brief definitions of varying types of feedback: negative, positive, and mBGC ("marine"). Underneath these descriptions, steps in several well-researched, climate feedbacks are displayed to provide real world examples.

4.1.3 “Why Should I Care?” The final subject focuses on the development of climate analyses and ways they may be influenced by assumptions or omissions. The page claims the need for well-informed policies to address climate change, asserting this can be accomplished by teaching decision makers about the process of generating analyses. Following the argument, a sequence of models and descriptions is provided to illustrate the complicated process. We begin with ESMs and ways they may be impacted by mBGC feedbacks, and leading to the function of integrated assessment models and their reliance on climate simulations. Ultimately the process yields the analyses decision makers use to guide their decisions.

4.2 Feedback Pages This section contains most of the detailed information presented on the website. Both mBGC feedbacks included are represented with a similar format to ensure the site is easy to navigate. For an image of the pages presented in this section refer to Appendix V.

4.2.1 “Executive Summary” The goal of each executive summary is to present all pertinent information regarding a single mBGC feedback on one page. Taking into consideration the limited time users will have to learn about feedbacks, both summaries include concise descriptions of the science and economics involved.

These pages open with the sequence of events which occur throughout both mBGC feedbacks, highlighting initiation and possible consequences. Every step is accompanied by an image to increase engagement and comprehension. Immediately below this description, users will find potential economic impacts listing monetary effects with both brief and extended explanations. Since the data is still preliminary, a formal financial analysis has not been conducted, allowing for only qualitative estimation.

7 4.2.2 “Background” The background pages were designed to answer any question that, while not imperative to understanding the mechanisms, may arise when learning about a feedback. For the DMS cloud-albedo loop, we explain what DMS is, why it is important, and sources of sulfur. The background page for ice chlorophyll feedback explains impacts of climate change, methods for plankton to enter sea ice, and significant differences observed between the Arctic and Antarctic.

4.2.3 “Feedback Steps” These pages present the most important information found on the website. Slideshows are used to provide in-depth descriptions of each step which occurs during both mBGC feedbacks along with examples and images.

The DMS cloud-albedo feedback begins with the types of phytoplankton which produce the gas or play an important role in changes which occur from global warming. Each type of phytoplankton is displayed as a link that will lead users to a short list of basic information about its location, habitat or nutrient limitations. Next, the slides demonstrate how DMS is released from phytoplankton, the reactions it undergoes once in the atmosphere, and finally the overall effect the compound has.

The ice chlorophyll feedback page displays an image of sea ice with four links: outside, top, middle, and bottom. Next to this picture is a list of possible consequences from the overall feedback. Since this cycle has four different reactionary pathways, the most comprehensive way to present the information is to separate each reaction into its own sequence. Users can click on various locations and walk through each step. All are explained by a brief description and images.

4.2.4 “Climate Change Impacts” To keep format consistent for users, this page follows a layout similar to that used for the executive summary. The three most significant impacts climate change has on DMS cloud-albedo feedback are shown, accompanied by related images. Each effect is described by its initiation, planktonic impact, and consequence. This approach was meant to relay the most important information quickly and efficiently. However, each impact offers links to a more in-depth explanation of the changes and additional illustrations. The ice chlorophyll feedback does not have a separate page since there is currently no substantial research or information provided within the literature about impacts global warming may have.

8 4.2.5 “Future Research” Since a climate change impact page is not provided for the ice chlorophyll feedback, the website instead presents several key areas of future research. With a layout, identical to the climate change impact page, future research discusses three areas of research. Each topic is listed with a brief description and links leading to expansion and extra images. Next to the explanations is a slideshow presenting pictures of various areas scientists are exploring.

5. Quality Assurance

5.1 Alpha Launch Throughout this project, Scott Elliott has provided guidance regarding the mechanisms behind both feedbacks and navigation of the relevant literature. He is a physical chemist and geoscientist working at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and is considered an expert on mBGC feedbacks. As a first test for the website, he reviewed each page as it was completed ensuring accuracy and proper presentation of information.

5.2 Beta Launch: After the website was complete and had passed the alpha launch, it was sent to be reviewed by outside sources. The first step provided feedback from members of the target audience and their peers. E-mails were sent out to a range of groups to obtain input from a variety of backgrounds. In each e-mail, several pages from the website were chosen to provide a representation of the descriptions and format used to present information. Participants were asked to review these pages, and afterward, complete a survey which organized their thoughts and gauged their reactions. This input was closely considered, and any necessary updates were made.

Once all changes to the site had been completed, it was sent to each member of my Capstone Advisory Committee in addition to several colleagues of Scott Elliott. Sending the website to these individuals allowed for a final check of the communication techniques and, more importantly, the quality and accuracy of information included. For an example of survey feedback or experts contact to review the website, refer to Appendix VI.

5.3 Risk Assessment Format and display proved to be a challenge throughout production of the website. Input received during the beta launch indicated information on several pages were misaligned with text boxes and often overlapped making it difficult to read. Unclear of the reasoning for this issue, exhaustive testing and research was conducted ultimately finding the font used was not available on every web browser. In this situation, the website would default to a standard text that had a different high and width. After changing the font to a standard form, outside sources confirmed the issue had been resolved.

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Marketing of the product provided an additional barrier to the success of the project. Originally, the website was to be promoted using an advertisement campaign on Politico's website. Unfortunately, after concluding the initial talks, the marketing department became difficult to reach and delayed progress for several weeks. Unwilling to suspension dissemination of the website any further, the promotional campaign turned to Facebook. Within a few days, the target audience was refined, and an advertisement was complete.

6. Marketing

6.1 Wix Promotional Tools Wix.com was the platform used to design and launch the website. After completing development and gathering comments, the final step was to complete any promotional features provided by Wix.com. It reviewed layouts and functions used throughout the website and offered several suggestions for improvement. For example, Wix.com explained how to personalize URL names for each page, add an overall description to appear on Google, and research keywords for the website to increase traffic from online searches. Only a few days after the site was launched, several outside users had found and accessed the project after conducting a Google web search.

6.2 University Networking The primary method of marketing to the target audience was to contact student-run democratic organizations. E-mails were sent to the top universities around Washington D.C. in addition to the top 50 political science universities across America. Each e-mail explained the importance of the information presented on the website and the ultimate goals of the project. Several groups provided access to their established network of students throughout their universities, and with help from the organizations promoted the website to their community. Currently Harvard, Georgetown, the University of California-Los Angeles, the University of Virginia, and the University of California- Riverside have all agreed to disseminate the website. For a full listing of the universities contacted, refer to Appendix VII.

6.3 Facebook Advertisement The final marketing attempt was made by purchasing advertisement rights to endorse on Facebook. After creating a simple poster for the project, specific demographics and interests groups were selected to target the advertisement. Demographics were considered including level of education or field of study and interest such as political affiliation or job title. The promotion will run on Facebook throughout next year and is expected to reach 470 – 2,400 users per day. For an image of the advertisement presented on Facebook refer to Appendix VIII.

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7. Budget: $1,700.00

The project was completed under budget, costing $1,700. For an itemized listing of each expense and associated cost, refer to Appendix III.

7.1 Personal Expenses: $1,253.20 The final product will be submitted and presented in San Diego, California. This requires funding for airfare ($396.14), transportation ($404.31), gas ($80.00), and food ($372.75). Allocated funds for gas and food are estimations since the submission of this report occurs before the trip concludes.

7.2 Non- Personal Expenses: $446.90 Construction and promotion of the website required fewer funds than anticipated. The original budget estimated cost from Squarespace.com, yet the final product was developed and marketed using an inexpensive competitor, Wix.com. This decision saved approximately $100 and provided additional functions and resources to produce the product. Expenses for the website include: reserving the domain for a year ($93.90), adding a slideshow application to the site ($43.00), and an advertisement campaign, described in section 5.3 ($250.00).

Remaining funds were allotted to gain feedback during the beta launch. Input was collected and organized using an online survey ($9.90) and a gift card to Starbucks was offered to incentivize participation ($50.00).

8. Living Document

As mentioned in the introduction, the website is designed to be a living document. This feature will allow continual development and updates as more users find the information. Additionally, it will enable content presented to be refined as more research is conducted or further data is generated. Specifically, Scott Elliott and the LANL community are working to include mechanisms involved in the DMS cloud-albedo feedback into a reduce . If successful, the research will to provide data which can be added to the site.

Finally, the status of living documents allows for additional mBGC feedbacks to be included at any point in the future. Depending on the level of traffic and attention the website gains, feedbacks may well be added, using a similar format to the DMS cloud- albedo and chlorophyll cycle emphasized here.

11 9. Results

Throughout development, the website experienced multiple revisions based on input received during the beta launch. Most involved improvement to format and function of the site while several comments focused on the preliminary understanding and data of mBGC feedbacks.

An older version of the website incorporated quantitative data estimated by expert scientists. One suggestion stressed the risk of provided uncertain data to a non-scientific audience. Explaining that inclusion of these values may help users understand the possible importance of mBGC feedbacks but can create resistance to future revision to the information. Ultimately, damaging credibility of the message and any trust the audience may have for the website.

Similarly, an additional comment focused on the importance of conveying scientists current level of understanding for mBGC feedbacks. Stating that it is critical to communicate which results experts have a high degree of confidence in, and which aspects of science are more exploratory and require further research.

In consideration of these suggestions, descriptions of the feedbacks have remained qualitative to prevent any misrepresentation of data or future research. Also, throughout the website, several descriptions and exclaimers were included to remind users that the message presented is still under review and further observations will continue to refine the information.

10. Conclusion

This project is a first step to resolve two issues within the science and policy intersection. Educate future decision makers about the influence several mBGC feedbacks may have on analyses and provide a bridge between climate scientists and the policy realm. Creating this resource caters to the limited time and scientific background most young decision makers have while implementing a channel for expert scientists to communicate important and complex topics.

The website includes fundamental information about global warming, natural feedbacks, and the formation of climate analyses. Executive summaries, background information, and sequence of events for each mBGC feedback in addition to climate change impacts and future research topics. The project is being advertised on Facebook and disseminated throughout several universities student democratic organizations.

12 Global warming and climate analyses production must be made comprehensible to bureaucrats. This website contributes to this challenge by educating non-scientist about mBGC feedbacks while creating a platform for future communication between scientist and decision makers to occur. Leading towards the creation of climate policies informed by a greater understanding of the climate system.

11. References

1. Etten, S. V., and M. Pressley. “College Seniors’ Theory of Their Academic Motivation.” Journal of Education Psychology 100.4 (2008): 812-828 2. Pate, S. S., M. Adams. “The Influence of Social Networking Sites on Buying Behaviors of Millennials.” Atlantic Marketing Journal 2.1.7 (2013): 92-109 3. Stefels, Jacqueline, Michael Steinke, Suzanne Turner, Gill Malin, and Sauveur Belviso. "Environmental constraints on the production and removal of the climatically active gas dimethylsulphide (DMS) and implications for modeling." Biogeochemistry 83.1-3 (2007): 245-75. 4. Schwinger, Jörg, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Katharina Six, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Christoph Heinze, and Tatiana Ilyina. "Amplification of global warming through pH-dependence ofDMS-production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model." Biogeosciences Discussions (2017): 1-26. 5. Kloster, S., J. Feichter, E. Maier-Reimer, K. D. Six, P. Stier, and P. Wetzel. "DMS cycle in the marine ocean-atmosphere system – a global model study." Biogeosciences 3.1 (2006): 29-51. 6. Charlson, Robert J., James E. Lovelock, Meinrat O. Andreae, and Stephen G. Warren. "Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulphur, and climate." Nature 326.6114 (1987): 655-61. 7. Lengaigne, M., G. Madec, L. Bopp, C. Menkes, O. Aumont, and P. Cadule. "Bio- physical feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean using an Earth system model." Geophysical Research Letters 36.21 (2009): 1-5. 8. Zeebe, R. E., H. Eicken, D. H. Robinson, D. Wolf-Gladrow, and G. S. Dieckmann. “Modeling the heating and melting of sea ice through light absorption by ” Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 101 No. C1 (1996):1163-1181 9. Ackley, S. F., M. J. Lewis, C. H. Fritsen, and H. Xie. “Internal melting in Antarctic sea ice: Development of gap layers” Geophysical Research Letter Vol. 35 (2008):1-5 10. Ackley, S. F., and C. W. Sullivan. “Physical controls on the development and characteristics of Antarctic sea ice biological communities- a review and synthesis.” Deep Sea Research Vol. 41, No 10 (1994): 1583-1604 11. Ackley, S. F., K. R. Buck, and S. Taguchi. “Standing crop of algae in the sea ice of the Weddell Sea region.” Deep Sea Research Vol. 26 (1979): 269-281.

13 Appendices:

Appendix I: Bibliography Ackley, S. F., K. R. Buck, and S. Taguchi. “Standing crop of algae in the sea ice of the Weddell Sea region.” Deep Sea Research Vol. 26 (1979): 269-281. Web. Ackley, S. F., and C. W. Sullivan. “Physical controls on the development and characteristics of Antarctic sea ice biological communities- a review and synthesis.” Deep Sea Research Vol. 41, No 10 (1994): 1583-1604 Ackley, S. F., M. J. Lewis, C. H. Fritsen, and H. Xie. “Internal melting in Antarctic sea ice: Development of gap layers” Geophysical Research Letter Vol. 35 (2008):1-5 Ackerman, F., S. J. Decanio, R. B. Howarth, and K. Sheeran. "Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change." Climate Change 95.3-4 (2009): 297-315. Web. Arrigo, K. R., D. L. Worthen, M. P. Lizotte, P. Dixon, and G. Dieckmann. “ in Antarctic Sea Ice.” Science 276 (1997): 394-397 Arnell, N. W., S. Brown, S. N. Gosling, J. Hinkel, C. Huntingford, B. Lloyd-Hughes, J. A. Lowe, T. Osborn, R. J. Nicholls, and P. Zelazowski. "Global- scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact." Climatic Change 134.3 (2014): 475-87. Web. Bergh, J., C. J. M. Van Den. "Optimal climate policy is a utopia: from quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis." Ecological Economics 48.4 (2004): 385-93. Web. Bluhm, B. A., and R. Gradinger. “Regional Variability in Food Availability for Arctic Marine Mammals.” Ecological Application 18(2) Supplement (2008): S77-S96 Burke, M., S. M. Hsiang, and E. Miguel. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production." Nature 527.7577 (2015): 235- 39. Web. Cess, R., G. Potter, J. Blanchet, G. Boer, A. Genio, M. Deque, V. Dymnikov, V. Galin, W. Gates, S. Ghan, J. Kiehl, A. Lacis, H. Treut, X. Liang, B. McAvaney, V. Meleshko, J. Mitchell, J. Morcrette, D. Randall, L. Rikus, E. Roeckner, J. Royer, U. Schlese, D. Shenin, A. Slingo, A. Sokolov, K. Taylor, W. Washington, R. Wetherald, I. Yagai, and M. Zhang. "Intercomparison and Interpretation of Climate Feedback Processes in 19 Atmospheric General Circulation Models." Journal Of Geophysical Research 95 D10 (1990): 16601-615. Web. Charlson, R. J., J. E. Lovelock, M. O. Andreae, and S. G. Warren. "Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulfur, cloud albedo and climate." Nature 326.6114 (1987): 655-61. Web. Consortium for International Information Network (CIESIN). “Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling.” University Center, Mich. CIESIN (1995) Website. Deal, C., M. Jin, S. Elliott, E. Hunke, M. Maltrud, and N. Jeffery. “Large-scale modeling of primary production and ice algal biomass within arctic sea ice in 1992.” Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 116 (2011): 1-14 Dutkiewicz, S., J. J. Morris, M. J. Follows, J. Scott, O. Levitan, S. T. Dyhrman, and I. Berman-Frank. "Impact of on the structure of future phytoplankton communities." Nature Climate Change 5.11 (2015): 1002-006. Web.

14 Etten, S. V., and M. Pressley. “College Seniors’ Theory of Their Academic Motivation.” Journal of Education Psychology 100.4 (2008): 812-828 Fletterer, F., and N. Untersteiner. “Observations of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice.” Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 103 No. C11 (1998): 24,821- 24,835 Flombaum, P., J. L. Gallegos, R. A. Gordillo, J. Rincon, L. L. Zabala, N. Jiao, D. M. Karl, W. K. W. Li, M. W. Lomas, D. Veneziano, C. S.Vera, J. A. Vrugt, and A. C. Martiny. "Present and future global distributions of the marine Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110.24 (2013): 9824-829. Web. Füssel, H.-M., and M. D. Mastradrea. "Integrated Assessment Modeling." Climate Change Science and Policy. N.P.: Island Press (2009): 150-61. Print. Granger M., M. Kandilkar, J. Risbey, and H. Dowlatabadi. "Why conventional tools for policy analysis are often inadequate for problems of global change." Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University 41 (1999): 271- 81. Web. Gregg, Watson W., P. Ginoux, P. S. Schopf, and N. W. Casey. "Phytoplankton and iron: validation of a global three-dimensional ocean biogeochemical model." Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 50.22-26 (2003): 3143-169. Web. Gregrich, J. R. "A note to researchers: Communicating science to policy makers and practitioners." Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment 25.3 (2003): 233-37. Web. Keiper, A. "Science and Congress." The New Atlantis: A Journal of Technology and Society 7 (2005): 19-50. Web Keller, M. D. " Dimethyl Sulfide Production and Marine Phytoplankton: The Importance of Species Composition and Cell Size." Biological Oceanography 6 (1989): 375- 82. Web. Kloster, S. "1. Introduction." Der DMS-Zyklus im Ozean-Atmosphären-System und dessen Resonanz auf anthropogenic Störungen = DMScycle in the ocean- atmosphere system and its response to anthropogenic perturbations. Hamburg: Max-Planck-Inst. für Meteorologie (2006): 7-16. Print. Kørnøv, L., and W. A.H. Thissen. "Rationality in decision- and policy-making: implications for strategic environmental assessment." Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal 18.3 (2000): 191-200. Web. Krembs, C., H. Eicken, and J. Deming. “Exopolymer alteration of physical properties of sea ice and implications for ice habitability biogeochemistry in a warmer Arctic.” PNAS Vol. 108 No. 9 (2011): 3653-3658 Lengaigne, M., G. Madec, L. Bopp, C. Menkes, O. Aumont, and P. Cadule. "Bio- physical feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean using an Earth system model." Geophysical Research Letters 36.21 (2009): 1-5. Web. Lenton, T., H. Held, E. Kriegler, J. Hall, W. Lucht, S. Rahmstorf, and H. Schellnhuber. "Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system." PNAS 105.6 (2008): 1786-793. Web. Mahowald, N. "Aerosol Indirect Effect on Biogeochemical Cycles and Climate." Science 334.6057 (2011): 794-96. Web.

15 Mccoy, D. T., S. M. Burrows, R. Wood, D. P. Grosvenor, S. M. Elliott, P.-L. Ma, P. J. Rasch, and D. L. Hartmann. "Natural aerosols explain seasonal and spatial patterns of Southern Ocean cloud albedo." Science Advances 1.6 (2015): 1-12. Web. Nada, H., and Y. Furukawa. “Antifreeze protein: computer simulation studies on the mechanism of ice growth inhibition.” Polymer Journal 44 (2012): 690-698. Print. Nordhaus, W. D. "Chapter 18: Climate Policy by Balancing Costs and Benefits." Climate Casino: risk, uncertainty, and economics for a warming world. Yale University Press, 2015. Print. O'dowd, C. D., M. C. Facchini, F. Cavalli, D. Ceburnis, M. Mircea, S. Decesari, S. Fuzzi, Y. Jun Yoon, and J. P. Putaud. "Biogenically driven organic contribution to marine aerosol." Nature 431.7009 (2004): 676-80. Web. Pate, S. S., M. Adams. “The Influence of Social Networking Sites on Buying Behaviors of Millennials.” Atlantic Marketing Journal 2.1.7 (2013): 92-109 Pindyck, R. "The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy." National Bureau of Economic Research (2015): 1-18. Web. Sarmiento, J. L., R. D. Slater, M. J. R. Fasham, H. W. Ducklow, J. R. Toggweiler, and G. T. Evans. "A seasonal three-dimensional ecosystem model of nitrogen cycling in the North Atlantic Euphotic Zone." Global Biogeochemical Cycles 7.2 (1993): 417-50. Web. Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Goris, N., Six, K., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, Ø., Heinze, C., and Ilyina, T.: Amplification of global warming through pH- dependence of DMS- production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model, Biogeosciences Discuss., doi:10.5194/bg- 2017-33, in review, 2017. Web. Six, K. D., S. Kloster, T. Ilyina, S. D. Archer, K. Zhang, and E. Maier-Reimer. "Global warming amplified by reduced sulfur fluxes as a result of ocean acidification." Nature Climate Change 3.11 (2013): 975-78. Web. Shackley, S., and B. Wynne. "Representing Uncertainty in Global Climate Change Science and Policy: Boundary-Ordering Devices and Authority." Science, Technology & Human Values 21.3 (1996): 275-302. Web. Stefels, J., M. Steinke, S. Turner, G. Malin, and S. Belviso. "Environmental constraints on the production and removal of the climatically active gas dimethylsulphide (DMS) and implications for ecosystem modeling." Biogeochemistry 83.1-3 (2007): 245-75. Web. Sunda, W., D. J. Kieber, R. P. Kiene, and S. Huntsman. "An antioxidant function for DMSP and DMS in marine algae." Nature 418.6895 (2002): 317-20. Web. Ricke, K. L., J. B. Moreno-Cruz, J. Schewe, A. Levermann, and K. Caldeira. "Policy thresholds in mitigation." Nature Geoscience 9.1 (2015): 5-6. Web. Roe, G. H., and M. B. Baker. "Why Is So Unpredictable?" Science 318.5850 (2007): 629-32. Web. Soden, B. J., and I. M. Held. "An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean– Atmosphere Models." Journal of Climate 19.14 (2006): 3354- 360. Web. Soden, B. J., I. M. Held, R. Colman, K. M. Shell, J. T. Kiehl, and C. A. Shields. "Quantifying Climate Feedbacks Using Radiative Kernels." Journal of Climate 21.14 (2008): 3504-520. Web.

16 Walton, J. J., D. J. Erickson, S. J. Ghan, and J. E. Penner. "Three-dimensional modeling of the global atmospheric : A first step." Atmospheric Environment. Part A. General Topics 25.11 (1991): 2513-520. Web. Watson, A. J., and P. Liss. "Marine biological controls on climate via the carbon and sulfur geochemical cycles." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 353.1365 (1998): 41-51. Web. Zeebe, R. E., H. Eicken, D. H. Robinson, D. Wolf-Gladrow, and G. S. Dieckmann. “Modeling the heating and melting of sea ice through light absorption by microalgae” Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 101 No. C1 (1996):1163-1181

Appendix II: Timeline

Appendix III: Budget

Expense Description Cost Total Returning to San Diego, CA Airfare $396.14 Uber (Airport Shuttle) $52.16 Transportation $352.15 Gas $80.00 Food $372.75 $1,253.20 Marketing Advertising $250.00 Gift Card $50.00 $300.00 Website Domain Wix Domain $93.90 Slideshow Application $43.00 Online Survey $9.90 $146.90 $1,700.00

17 Appendix IV: Background Information

[Figure 3]: “What is Climate Change?” page presented on the website

[Figure 4]: “What is Feedback?” page presented on the website

[Figure 5]: “Why Should I Care?” page presented on the website

18 Appendix V: Feedback Pages

[Figure 6]: These are the “Executive Summary” pages presented on the website. To the left is the for the DMS Cloud-Albedo Feedback. To the right is the for the Ice Chlorophyll Feedback.

[Figure 7]: These are the “Background” pages presented on the website. To the left is the for the DMS Cloud-Albedo Feedback. To the right is the for the Ice Chlorophyll Feedback.

[Figure 8]: These are the “Feedback Steps” pages presented on the website for the DMS cloud-albedo feedback. The top row shows the phytoplankton phylogeny, how DMS is release, and how the chemical reaction it undergoes once in the atmosphere. The bottom shows the direct and indirect the feedback effect has.

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[Figure 9]: To the left is the “Feedback Steps” page presented on the website for the Ice Chlorophyll feedback. To the right is the “Top” of the sea ice feedback steps, one of four presented on the page.

[Figure 10]: To the left is the “Climate Change Impact” page presented on the website for the DMS cloud-albedo feedback. To the right is the “Stronger Winds” link, one of three presented on the page.

[Figure 11]: To the left is the “Future Research” page presented on the website for the Chlorophyll feedback. To the right is the “EPS” link, one of three presented on the page.

20 Appendix VI: Beta Launch

Statistical Excerpt from Survey Page Rating Rating Responses “Ice Pigment-Executive Summary” 3.84/5 31 “Feedback Steps” 4.06/5 31 “Feedback-Outside” 3.77/5 31 Overall 3.97/5 31 How could the website be improved? Votes Responses More Explanations 4 27 Different Explanations 2 27 Add Resources 6 27 More images 4 27 Other - Formatting 11 27 Was the website layout easy to understand and use? Votes Responses Yes 13 19 No 3 19 Other - Formatting 3 19

Website Review Names Organization Responded Lynn Russell Scripps Institution of Oceanography Ellie Farahani Scripps Institution of Oceanography Kate Ricke Scripps Institution of Oceanography Susannah Burrows Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Corinne Hartin Joint Global Change Research Institute Contacted Georgina Gibson University of Alaska Fairbanks Forrest Hoffman Oak Ridge National Laboratory Shanlin Wang Los Alamos National Laboratory Marika Holland University Corporation of Atmospheric Research

21 Appendix VII: University Networking

Responded University Response Georgetown University Agreed Harvard University Agreed University California-Los Angeles Agreed University California-Riverside Agreed University of Virginia Agreed University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign Declined Contacted George Washington University American University Howard University Catholic University of America Gallaudet University Trinity Washington University University of the District of Columbia Stanford University Princeton University University California-Berkley University of Michigan Yale University Columbia University Duke University Massachusetts Institute of Technology University California-San Diego University of North Carolina New York University University of Chicago Ohio State University University of Wisconsin-Madison University California-Davis University of Rochester Cornell University University of Pennsylvania University of Texas-Austin Washington University in St. Louis Northwestern University Emory University Texas A&M University-College Station Brown University University of Minnesota-Twin Cities

22 Vanderbilt University Indiana University-Bloomington Michigan State University Stony Brook University-SUNY University of Maryland-College Park Pennsylvania State University-University Park Rice University University of Washington University of Iowa University of Norte Dame Florida State University University of Colorado-Boulder University of Pittsburgh Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey-New Brunswick University California-Irvine University of Georgia Johns Hopkins University Syracuse University

Appendix VIII: Facebook Advertisement

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