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ARTICLE IN PRESS

Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 7373–7375 www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosenv

New Directions: Enhancing the natural cycle to slow global warming$

Full scale of the Southern The CLAW hypothesis further states that greater Ocean (SO) has been proposed previously as a DMS production would result in additional flux to means to help mitigate rising CO2 in the the atmosphere, more cloud condensation nuclei (Martin et al., 1990, Nature 345, 156–158). Here we (CCN) and greater cloud reflectivity by decreasing describe a different, more leveraged approach to cloud droplet size. Thus, increased DMS would partially regulate using limited iron en- contribute to the of the planet by hancement to stimulate the natural , countering warming from increasing CO2. A cor- resulting in increased cloud reflectivity that could ollary to the CLAW hypothesis is that elevated CO2 cool large regions of our planet. Some regions of the itself increases DMS production which has been Earth’s are high in nutrients but low in observed during a mesocosm scale CO2 enrichment primary productivity. The largest such region is the experiment (Wingenter et al., 2007, Geophysical SO followed by the equatorial Pacific. Several Research Letters 34, L05710). The CLAW hypoth- mesoscale (102 km2) experiments have shown that esis relies on the assumption that DMS sea-to-air the limiting nutrient to productivity is iron. Yet, the flux leads to new particles and not just the growth of effectiveness of iron fertilization for sequestering existing particles. If the CLAW hypothesis is significant amounts of atmospheric CO2 is still in correct, the danger is that enormous anthropogenic question. However, not inputs of CO2 may overcome Earth’s natural ability only consume inorganic carbon but also produce to self-regulate. Here we present initial calculations and consume many climate relevant organic gases. and hypotheses intended to spark future, more The greatest climate effect of iron fertilization may comprehensive research in amplification of the be in enhancing dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production, natural sulfur cycle, aerosol growth and formation, leading to changes in the optical properties of the and its possible outcomes. atmosphere and cooling of the region. During the Southern Ocean Iron Enrichment DMS is believed to play a major role in Experiments (SOFeX), we observed con- maintaining Earth’s climate in the range necessary centrations of DMS about five-fold higher inside the for . This presumption is called the CLAW iron fertilized patch (7.7 nM; 7.7 Â 10À9 moles lÀ1) hypothesis after the authors Charlson, Lovelock, versus outside (1.6 nM), 28 days after the initial Andreae and Warren (Charlson et al., 1987, Nature fertilization (Wingenter et al., 2004, Proceedings of 326, 655–661). Initially increasing atmospheric CO2 the National Academy of Science 101, 8537–8541), concentration warms the planet, which induces while undergoing an approximate three-fold dilu- additional productivity of marine tion in geochemical signal as reported by Coale et that results in a greater production of DMS. al. (2004, Science 304, 408–414). During similar SO iron fertilization projects Turner et al. (2004, $Something to say? Comments on this article, or suggestions Geophysical Research Letters 31, L14307), ob- for other topics, are welcome. To write a response to this article, served comparable enhancements of DMS. or to contribute your own article to New Directions, please If approximately two percent of the SO were contact [email protected],orgotowww.uea.ac.uk/ fertilized to about 1 nM of iron three times over the e044/apex/newdir2.html for further details.

1352-2310/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.07.021 ARTICLE IN PRESS 7374 New Directions / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 7373–7375 course of a week, in well-spaced streaks on the order However, to accomplish this at the beginning of the of 2 km wide, a three-fold dilution in iron similar to growing season over 30 days, about 30 smaller ships that observed during SOFeX would result in an area would be needed. Changes in and chlor- of about five percent of the SO. The resulting area ophyll would be monitored and validated by would be enhanced in DMS concentrations similar satellite measurements. Depending on the number to those observed previously (Wingenter et al., of satellite and shipboard measurements and 2004), leading to a 20 percent increase in DMS analyses made, the yearly cost of such an operation production integrated over the entire SO. If the would be on the order of US $10 million to $100 fertilized strips were orientated roughly North-to- million. Initially, a smaller (perhaps 2 percent of South, orthogonal to the prevailing winds, the 106–107 km2) test area could be enhanced to enhanced DMS flux may lead to 20 percent more demonstrate proof of the concept. CCN derived from DMS oxidation. An important caveat to this plan is that uncertainties Approximately 200 CCN cmÀ3 arise from DMS still exist in the understanding of particle conversion of oxidation and 200 CCN cmÀ3 from sea-salt in the DMS oxidation products. They can either add to SO marine boundary layer (Watson and Liss, 1998, existing particles or create new ones depending on Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B many factors, including the atmospheric temperature 353, 41–51). Therefore, the total CCN cmÀ3 would and the type and amount of oxidant present (e.g. von increase from 400 to 440 CCN cmÀ3, assuming the Glasow and Crutzen, 2004, Atmospheric Chemistry same to CCN conversion efficiency for the and Physics 4, 589–608). Whether new aerosols form or extra DMS air–sea flux. The (reflec- existing ones grow is a critical factor concerning the tivity) over the SO in the summer is about 46 viability of enhancing of DMS production to cool the percent (Watson and Liss, 1998). If the number of climate. A large-scale experiment, as described here, particles were to increase over the SO by an should greatly add to our understanding of aerosol additional 40 CCN cmÀ3 (from the additional growth and formation in the SO region. DMS), the albedo would increase by 0.8 percent Even limited iron enhancement over several years (employing an analysis similar to that in Watson may result in significant changes in phytoplankton and Liss, 1998 and in Twomey, 1991, Atmospheric , which could have unknown, or dama- Environment 25, 2435–2442). The amount of solar ging, effects to climate or fishing. For example, the reaching the top of the SO atmosphere SO is known to be a sink of the stratospheric ozone during the summer is about 400 W mÀ2. Thus, an depleting substance methyl bromide. During SOFeX, additional 3 W mÀ2 would be reflected back to we observed that net methyl bromide consumption space. Using a global estimate that each W mÀ2 ceased inside the iron fertilized North Patch. corresponds to 0.75 1C (Hansen et al., 2005, Science Another possible risk is the buildup of iron below 308, 1431–1435) the initial fertilization of two the mixed layer; but because of rapid vertical mixing percent of the SO would result in a 2 1C decrease south of the Antarctic Front this seems unlikely. This in temperature over the SO region, and perhaps a mixing could be perturbed if excessive cooling of, few tenths over the entire Southern Hemisphere. perhaps, several degrees resulted in increased sea-ice It is difficult to predict the full repercussions of a around Antarctica which would inhibit air–sea gas large, 2 1C, cooling over the SO without direct exchange. Furthermore, decreased buoyancy flux observations or at least full scale coupled ocean– would also suppress upwelling (Watson and Naviera atmosphere–ice sheet model simulations. Cooler Garabato, 2006, Tellus 58B, 73–87). Therefore, iron surface temperature could lead to some slowing of and turbulence should be monitored. sea-level rise by (i) slowing sea water expansion; and The estimates presented here are of first order and (ii) cooler temperatures may result in diminished present the need for fully coupled ocean–atmo- break up of ice near the Antarctic coast and inhibit sphere–cryosphere modeling studies. This should be large ice masses, such as the Western Antarctic Ice followed by a pilot experiment over 1–2 years. If Sheet (WAIS), from raising sea level rapidly. Melting limited iron enhancements, on the order of two of the WAIS would raise the sea level by about 6 m. percent of the entire SO, are carried out, they should To fertilize two percent of the SO south of 501 be viewed as temporary measures to slow one or latitude, about 22 kton of FeSO4 are needed, more symptoms of until a perma- assuming a 50 m mixed layer depth, which is within nent solution for controlling emis- the capacity of the smallest class of tanker ships. sions can be implemented. ARTICLE IN PRESS New Directions / Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 7373–7375 7375

End Note. As opposed to our plan, full scale iron Oliver W. Wingenter fertilization of the SO for the purpose of sequester- Department of Chemistry and Geophysical Research ing CO2 seems unfeasible from the perspective of Center, New Mexico Institute of Mining and simply overcooling the SO region by several degrees Technology, Socorro, NM 87801, USA and the likely inhibition of agriculture on the land E-mail address: [email protected] masses bordering the SO, not to mention other unintended and unknown consequences of massive Scott M. Elliot iron fertilization. Climate Ocean Sea Ice Modeling Project, Los Alamos National Laboratory, OWW and DRB were supported by the US NSF Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA Chemical Oceanography program. SME was sup- ported by the US DOE OBER Acidic project. This manuscript benefited greatly from the comments of Donald R. Blake two anonymous reviewers, William Sturges, and Department of Chemistry, Barkley C. Sive. University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA