CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018 Deterioration of food security conditions into a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation in parts of the Sahel

KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes for June 2017 • The deterioration in food consumption by poor households in the , Bahr El Gazel (BEG), , and Guera regions with the depletion of their food stocks, the earlier and harsher than usual lean season for pastoral populations, and the decline in household purchasing due to the falling prices of livestock has propelled these areas from the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) up into the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) phase of food insecurity. • The reopening of the country’s borders with Libya in early March helped improve supplies in the Borkou--Tibesti (BET) regions. In spite of the atypical pattern of trade limited to three border crossings, it is improving the household food security situation. Thus, parts of this livelihood zone have been in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity since June. Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis • The shortages of pasture and watering holes are creating mediocre follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the pastoral conditions in Kanem, BEG, Batha, Guera, Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira, consensus of national food security partners. and Ennedi. On average, animals are traveling 15 to 20 kilometers to drink and graze on pasture. This is affecting their physical condition and reproductive performance, reducing milk production, and driving down livestock prices on most markets. • The expected average October harvests will provide poor households in nearly all parts of the country (with the exception of the region) with average food stocks meeting their food needs through January 2018. This will put them in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1) phase of food insecurity between October 2017 and January 2018. Households in the Lac region will be in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation through September due to the magnitude of population displacements in that area.

SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily [email protected] reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the www.fews.net/chad United States Government

CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018

NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current Situation

Farming conditions Projected food security outcomes, June through In general, the 2017/2018 growing season has started up. An September 2017 examination of cumulative rainfall anomalies shows large to moderate amounts of excess rainfall in the Sudanian zone and a slight to moderate deficit in the Sahelian zone. The crop planting period reportedly got underway two to three weeks earlier than usual in the Sudanian zone. There are reports of the wet planting of crops beginning as early as the end of April in southern areas of the country (instead of in the second and third weeks of May). These activities are finishing up, spurred by the good availability of soil water resources. There has reportedly been localized rainfall activity in most farming areas in the Sahelian zone, including Hadjer Lamis, North Guera, Salamat, and Southeastern Sila. These rains allowed farmers to expand their crop planting activities in certain areas (on average, planting three out of five fields in crops), but did not amount to useful rainfall in all areas. Source: FEWS NET The growing season for dry off-season crops in reclaimed polder areas of the Lac region is winding down, with maize harvests beginning at Projected food security outcomes, October 2017 through the end of May and extending through the middle of June, as is January 2018 normally the case. In line with the seasonal calendar, land preparation work (plowing, the construction of levees, the digging of irrigation ditches, etc.) for the growing season for rainfed crops is nearly completed. Market gardening activities in the Lac region are also winding up with the last harvests of fruits and vegetables. The harvest of market garden crops in Ouaddaï (onions, garlic, etc.) is completed and is larger than average owing to the good work of extension agents and the enthusiasm of local farmers. Pastoral conditions Pastoral conditions in the Sahelian zone are marked by unusual shortages of pasture and watering holes. Animals are traveling longer than average distances (15 to 20 kilometers in the Sahel and five to Source: FEWS NET seven kilometers in the Lac region) to drink at watering holes, which FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus is affecting their physical condition. of national food security partners. The lean season for pastoral populations in the Western Sahel is forcing pastoralists to stay south of this area in their search for pasture and drinking water. These movements are much more noticeable in the Lac region, where the security problems and lean season for pastoral populations in northern areas are forcing pastoralists to travel farther south to take advantage of the availability of crop residues from off-season crops and watering holes for their herds. Pastoral conditions in the Sudanian zone have been steadily improving since the first rainfall in that area at the end of April, two to three weeks earlier than usual. These rains helped spur steady new spontaneous vegetative growth and the replenishment of animal watering holes. In spite of the below-normal levels of pasture, there is a visible improvement in the physical condition of livestock. The early rains boosting the availability of fresh grasses in seasonal grazing areas in the Sudanian zone are continuing to delay the return of transhumant livestock herds to the transhumant pastoral zone.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018

Farm labor In the Sudanian zone, start-of-season activities (plowing, planting, weeding, etc.) for the new growing season, which began ahead of schedule, are creating jobs for wage laborers slightly earlier than usual. There is a larger than usual supply of labor with the shutdown of construction sites and ensuing lay-offs and the late payment of cotton growers for the 2016-2017 cotton marketing season. This large labor pool has reduced the cost of labor. Wage rates in rice-growing areas are below-average, where workers transplanting rice seedlings normally earning 20,000 CFAF per paddy (1 paddy = 50 square meters) are currently being paid only 8,000 CFAF. The current rate of pay for ongoing crop planting and weeding activities in Mayo Boneye, , and Lac Léré departments and other parts of the south is 300 to 500 CFAF/day, compared with the norm of 500 to 1,000 CFAF. There is not yet a demand for labor in the Sahelian zone, where the growing season is expected to start sometime between the end of June and the middle of July (except in Guera, Batha, and Salamat where only family labor is used). There should be a normal need for wage labor for land preparation work for the growing season for rainfed crops in the Lac region. The labor surplus created by the presence of DPs is continuing to affect wage rates for day laborers, which, at 1,500 CFAF, are still in line with the average of 2,000 CFAF per person per day. Population movements Households from department in the Sahel are reportedly returning to their home villages after migrating to large cities at the beginning of the year in the wake of the shortfall in cereal production due to grain-eating bird infestations. While some of these households moved up their return for the observance of Ramadan, others are returning mainly for the start of the growing season. In the Western Sahel, the relative improvement in the security situation in the Lac region was reversed by the attack on the village of Kaiga (on May 5, 2017) by members of Boko Haram. This act of aggression displaced another 169 people, including 124 DPs and 45 returnees (according to the May 23-25, 2017 mission report by the Office of the Assistant Humanitarian Coordinator for the Lac Region). These new arrivals are adding to the ranks of the previously registered 118,804 DPs. Cereal supplies and availability Market supplies of cereals in all parts of the country are slightly above-average owing to the good production surplus from the 2016–2017 growing season. These supplies continue to meet consumer needs, with prices generally more or less below- average. However, certain low-production areas such as Kanem, BEG, Wadi Fira, and the Lac region are reporting below-normal market supplies due to security problems. There are adequate cereal supplies on southern markets in most parts of in the Sudanian zone with the exception of West Tandjilé (Kélo) and parts of East and West Mayo Kebbi (Bongor and Fianga Guelendeng), where supplies are low. The over 1,137 metric tons of institutional food stocks maintained by the ONASA (the National Food Security Agency) and approximately 147,670 metric tons of trader inventories are bolstering cereal availability on local markets. Demand for cereal crops There is reportedly a growing demand for cereal crops in the BEG, Hadjer Lamis, and Kanem regions of the Western Sahel with the depletion of food stocks and dependence on market purchases during the lean season. Cereal trade and prices There is a normal flow of inter- and intra-regional cereal trade in practically all parts of the country. There was an earlier than expected influx of maize from Cameroon (in March/April instead of June/July) into the Western Sahel (BEG, Hadjer Lamis, and Kanem). There is apparently a preference for this maize and for maize from the Sudanian zone (mainly from Pala) due to its quality and competitive market price (220 CFAF/kg) this year compared with the price of maize from the Lac region (240 CFAF/kg). There is reportedly a typical though rather large seasonal flow of cereal trade from the surplus production in Dar Tama to the deficit area of in the transhumant pastoral zone. There is a normal flow of cereal trade from the Lake Chad area to Massakory and N’Djaména. However, the volume of trade is relatively small compared with the norm with the slowdown in shipments due to security problems and the poor road conditions.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018

There is a normal pattern of cereal trade in the southern part of the country, in line with normal seasonal trends. However, there are reportedly shipments of maize to low-production areas (BEG and Kanem) from Bongor in Mayo Kebbi and from both East and West Logone. Cereal prices Prices on most cereal markets have been below-average since the beginning of the year, reflecting the good levels of national cereal production for the 2016/2017 season. However, there have been reports of a few moderate price increases to above- average levels on certain markets. Cereal prices in the Sahelian zone are steadily falling, except in Wadi Fira where sorghum prices are up by 10 percent in Biltine and eight percent in Guereda. This upward trend in prices in both of these areas is attributable to the production deficit for the 2016–2017 season. Prices in the Sudanian zone are generally coming down, except for a few localized rises in prices in Tandjilé and East and West Mayo Kebbi. Thus, millet prices in Guelendeng (East Mayo Kebbi) and Léré (West Mayo Kebbi) are reportedly up by somewhere between six and as much as 52 percent, fueled by the unusually high demand in these areas. Prices for most cereal crops In Tandjilé are generally falling, except for the rises in millet and maize prices in Kélo. There are reports of this same upward trend in the price of rice in Pala (+33 percent) and the price of maize in Kélo (+8 percent) and Bongor (+19 percent). These isolated price increases are due mainly to the high demand for rice on markets in Pala for shipment to border areas of Cameroon and the shipments of maize to the BEG and Kanem areas. Livestock prices The downward trend in prices on practically all livestock markets has stabilized, with reports of rises in the price of sheep in a few areas. Sheep prices in Am Dam in the Djourouf Al Ahmar area of the transhumant pastoral zone are reportedly up by 13 percent with the departure of large numbers of pastoralists for areas farther south in search of pasture and drinking water. These movements are being triggered by overgrazing, which is creating competition for access to pasture resources. Livestock prices in the Sudanian zone are reportedly above the five-year average in Beboto (by six percent) and Benoye (by 10 percent) due to the steady departure of transhumant pastoralists and their herds, spurred by the start-up of farming activities with the current rainfall activity in these areas. Humanitarian assistance Chad has a population of 601,700 DPs from the Central African Republic, Niger, Nigeria, and Sudan. There are numerous humanitarian actors, including U.N. agencies and NGOs, actively providing humanitarian assistance at different camp sites. China and Germany have just contributed US$ 4 million and 4.6 million euros, respectively, to help fund assistance programs for populations affected by ongoing conflicts. The funding provided by China is specifically designed to deliver food assistance to 57,500 recipients in the Lake Chad region between June and September, including close to 30,000 women and more than 10,000 children under the age of five, through distributions of food rations and cash transfer programs. It will also help furnish assistance to 44,400 Sudanese refugees in the eastern part of the country. The 4.6 million euros in German funding will be used to complement assistance programs in the Lake Chad region during the lean season, focusing mainly on the delivery of food assistance through school meal programs at settlement sites for DPs, cash transfer programs, and treatment programs for malnutrition. However, in spite of these contributions from China and Germany, there is still a large funding gap estimated at over US$ 504 million, including US$ 236.80 million for food security needs. Food security situation Food security conditions are still problematic due to the fighting in the Lac region, the premature depletion of food stocks (in BEG and Wadi Fira), the poor pastoral conditions in the transhumant pastoral zone, and the falling prices of livestock in Kanem. Households are employing different coping strategies to deal with this situation such as scaling up their recourse to farm labor and sales of livestock, which are failing to bridge their food consumption gaps, even with the cereal sales by the ONASA. According to current food security outcomes, large numbers of households in these areas are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018

There are one-off areas in which conditions are Stressed (IPC Phase 2), such as Borkou and Tibesti affected by the slowdown in cross-border food trade with Libya (BET) and North Batha, where the extremely harsh pastoral conditions are affecting the weights of livestock and driving down prices. Conditions in East Tandjilé in the southern zone are also Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as a result of the premature depletion of food stocks due to the 15 percent cereal deficit for the 2016 – 2017 growing season. There is Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity in all other areas of the country owing to the good cereal harvests for the 2016– 2017 growing season.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for June 2017 through January Figure 1: NMME rainfall forecast for July through September 2017 2018 is based on the following assumptions with respect to nationwide conditions: • 2017 – 2018 growing season: o The outlook for areas in southern Chad is for average to above-average levels of cumulative rainfall and an early start- of-season, with a potential risk of flooding and plant health problems. In addition, crop growth in these areas could be affected by the expected protracted dry spells in the early part of the season. There may also be an earlier than usual end-of-season in the Sahelian zone, exposing crops to drought risks. o The Lake Chad Basin is expected to get average to above- average levels of cumulative rainfall following a normal to late start-of-season and series of protracted dry spells early in the season. This suggests the possibility of heavy or concentrated rainfall with the potential to cause flooding problems. The late start-of-season and protracted dry spells could also hamper crop planting activities in this area. o The outlook for the central part of the country is for average Source: NOAA/NMME to above-average levels of cumulative rainfall, with an early start-of-season, a late end-of-season, and protracted dry spells liable to affect crop planting activities at the beginning of the season. • Farm labor: There will be a normal supply of labor for the growing season for rainfed crops in most parts of the country, as well as for the growing season for cold off-season crops. • There will be a well-above-average demand for labor in the first half of the outlook period with the suspension of the government subsidy for tractors used for plowing. There will be a normal demand for labor at the beginning of the second half of the outlook period for harvesting activities requiring seasonal workers. Most wage payments during this growing season could be made in kind due to the economic problems throughout the country. • Pasture resources and herd movements: The lean season for pastoral populations will prolong the premature deterioration in pasture resources in the transhumant pastoral zone through the middle of July, with a risk of potential new conflicts triggered by the competition for pasture resources by pastoralists in southern transhumant pastoral areas and the destruction of sprouting crops planted by agropastoralists in southern areas. The fresh grass cover in grazing areas by the middle of July could improve the physical condition of livestock. • There will be a steady flow of seasonal migration by pastoralists to northern areas with the beginning of the growing season in the Sudanian zone. Currently slowed by the lean season in pastoral areas of the Sahelian zone, these migratory movements will gradually pick up speed as the season progresses, peaking in late July. • Demand for food (institutional procurements) and livestock: With the good levels of household food stocks, there will be a stable demand for food crops early in the first half of the outlook period in all parts of the Sudanian zone with the

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018

exception of Tandjilé. There will be a relatively higher demand in Tandjilé and practically all parts of the Sahelian zone due to the low levels or shortage of food stocks in these areas from the poor crop yields in 2016. There will be no institutional procurements for the reconstitution of food security stocks during the outlook period. • There will be a relatively higher domestic demand for livestock for the observance of Ramadan in the first half of the outlook period, which will continue into the middle of the second half of the outlook period, fueled by the Feast of Tabaski and the year-end holidays, after a short-lived drop in demand towards the end of August and the beginning of September. • Household food stocks: Food-short areas (the BEG and Wadi Fira regions) and Abtouyour (Guera) and East Tandjilé departments (in the Tandjilé region) will feel the effects of the depletion of local food stocks throughout the first half of the outlook period. The good levels of food stocks in the rest of the country will ensure adequate household food consumption during the lean season in farming areas. There will be normal food stocks throughout the second half of the outlook period from the 2017 harvest of rainfed crops. • Price trends: There will be a sharp seasonal rise in cereal prices at the beginning of the lean season with the observance of Ramadan. It could have serious consequences in food-short areas with the depletion of household food stocks. The shortfall in rainfed crop production for 2016 will prevent the harvest of off-season rice crops in Tandjilé from stabilizing prices between June and September. The atypical demand for rice could drive prices up sharply between July and August 2017. Trends in prices between October 2017 and January 2018 will be in line with the norm. • Supply of food and livestock: There will be smaller food supplies during the lean season with the depleted stocks in certain deficit and low-production areas (BEG, Wadi Fira, and Kanem). • Things could improve in the second half of the outlook period, with early crops gradually shoring up supplies until the harvest at the end of the second half of the outlook period. There should be normal market supplies, bolstered by good trader inventories and subsidized crop sales by the ONASA (at 50 percent below market prices). • Trade between Chad and Libya: There should be a stable flow of cross-border trade with Libya throughout the outlook period. However, this is contingent on local security conditions and future decisions by the governments of both countries. • Refugees from the CAR: The recent attacks in northern areas of the CAR could trigger a new wave of refugees flooding into southern Chad between June 2017 and January 2018. Most likely food security outcomes Between June and September, households in the Lac region will continue to face a food security Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the lean season, fueled by the continuing security problems and depletion of food stocks. The low levels of household food stocks will also rule out any change in the food security situation in the BEG and Kanem regions and Abtouyour department in June from the pre-lean season. Likewise, there will be no change in the situation in the transhumant pastoral zone (Kobé and Megri departments in Wadi Fira) with the poor pastoral conditions in these areas and the falling prices of livestock. Local populations will scale up their recourse to farm labor and sales of livestock to meet their food needs, which will not be fully covered. On the other hand, conditions in the North Kanem and northern BEG areas will improve by the end of July with the beginning of the rainy season and growth of fresh grass cover, which will help promote milk availability. The opening of the three corridors in Borkou and Tibesti in March has improved food access. According to acute food security analyses, conditions in the north Kanem and north BEG areas and Borkou and Tibesti regions will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as of July and for the rest of the lean season.

There will continue to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity in practically all other areas of the country owing to the good levels of food stocks from the 2016–2017 growing season. The sole exception is East Tandjilé in the Sudanian zone, where conditions will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with the depletion of household food stocks limiting the ability of local populations to meet their basic food consumption needs.

Between October 2017 and January 2018, there will be a slight improvement in food security conditions in the Lac region with the upcoming harvest for the growing season currently in progress. However, the continued pressure from displaced populations will reduce household food consumption. There will be no change in the acute food security situation in Borkou and Tibesti with the slowdown in trade with Libya. Accordingly, the Lac, Borkou, and Tibesti areas will be in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity during the post-rainy season. Households in the Lac region would be in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation without the various humanitarian assistance programs in that area.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018

There will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity in other areas of the country with the shoring up of food stocks by the upcoming 2017/2018 harvests, the availability of milk supplies, the good physical condition of livestock, the seasonal drop in food prices, and the rise in prices for livestock during the year-end holiday season. There will be a steady improvement in household food stocks and the food security situation throughout the second half of the outlook period, from October 2017 through January 2018.

AREAS OF CONCERN Lac Region (Agropastoral and fishing zone) Current situation Off-season crop production (market garden and berbéré ‘flood-recession sorghum’ crops) The maize harvest for the 2017 growing season for hot off-season crops is currently in progress, with average production prospects. Harvests of market garden crops (eggplants, okra, beets, and green cabbages) are completed and preparations for the growing season for rainfed crops are underway.

Progress of the growing season The 2017/2018 growing season devoted mainly to maize and pearl millet crops is off to a normal start. Current farming activities, namely field clean-up work and plowing, are nearly completed. Planting activities for maize crops have just gotten started with the first rains in June 2017.

Cereal prices May 2017 prices for maize crops were below the five-year average (by 18 percent), driven down by low demand with the market supplies of sorghum and rice selling at lower prices (both of which are substitutes for maize). There are government-subsidized sales of rice at 250 CFAF/kg, compared with the market price of 500 CFAF/kg.

Farm labor There is a continuing surplus of labor for the maize harvest and the planting of rainfed crops with the influx of DPs offering to work for slightly below-market wage rates and a stagnant demand.

Pastoral conditions Pastoral conditions have severely deteriorated with the growing shortage of pasture and continuing security problems. This deterioration in conditions, particularly in the northern part of the area, has created large concentrations of animals and overgrazing problems in the southern reaches of the area. Transhumant herd movements are peaking extremely early this year with the premature start of the lean season for pastoral populations in February instead of April, which is the norm. Livestock are in poorer than usual physical shape in spite of the generally stable animal health conditions with the ongoing vaccination campaign. Pastoralists in /Bol (in the southern part of the area) are taking advantage of crop residues from the harvest of cold off-season crops to feed their animals.

Livestock prices Prices on most livestock markets are down for the third consecutive year with the suspension of livestock exports to Nigeria as a result of the security problems created by the conflict with Boko Haram and the poor physical condition of livestock.

Household food stocks Though cereal production levels for the 2016/2017 growing season surpassed the five-year average (by 54 percent), the presence of close to 118,804 DPs and refugees sharing meals with their host families has prematurely depleted household food stocks in receiving areas.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018

Nutritional situation There were larger numbers of admissions to therapeutic feeding centers in the Lac region in the first quarter of 2017, namely 5,295 cases as of March 2017 compared with only 329 in March 2016. There are high rates of malnutrition, with a GAM rate of 12.2 percent and a SAM rate of 2.1 percent (OCHA, Bagasola, February 17, 2017).

Population movements One of the main effects of the fighting in the Lake Chad Basin has been the displacement of more than 118,804 people, including DPs and returnees. Most of these DPs have joined the labor pool for farm and nonfarm workers and are creating an added demand for food, since they are largely unable to grow their own food.

Current food consumption The findings by HEA analyses in February 2017 show 19 percent of very poor households in Mamdi department facing livelihood protection deficits as of March 2017. As was the case in the first quarter of the year, humanitarian operations (blanket food distributions and cash transfers) will stabilize food consumption.

Food security situation The most important contributing factor to the household food security situation in the Lac region is the ongoing conflict in that area, which has affected crop production, local markets, and household livelihoods. The recent harvests of cold off-season cereal crops were well below the five-year average due to the security threats from Boko Haram and the smaller cropped areas. Household food consumption is reduced and local households have large food consumption gaps due to the pressure on household food availability from displaced populations. The market disruptions from the recent aggression by Boko Haram (the attack on Kaïga on May 5, 2017) have slowed the flow of food and livestock trade, limiting supplies on certain markets. Most sources of income such as farm labor, crop and livestock sales, and sales of wild plant products and firewood are severely affected. As a result, poor households are unable to meet their basic food needs and are currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for June 2017 through January 2018 in the Lake Chad region is based on the following assumptions in addition to the assumptions on nationwide conditions:

Hot off-season cereal production: There will be below-average levels of hot off-season cereal production (between March and June) from maize crops with the delay in the recession of the floodwaters from Lake Chad. Likewise, the high temperatures between March and April will drive production approximately 10 to 15 percent below-average. Nevertheless, these crops will shore up dwindling household food stocks drained by the month-long observance of Ramadan. Progress of the growing season: There will be a normal start-of-season in line with the SODELAC (Lake Chad Development Company) calendar. As usual, crop planting activities began around June 15th. Based on cumulative rainfall forecasts by weather service experts, in general, there should be an average rainy season, with average levels of crop production, though there could be smaller areas planted in millet and maize crops with the suspension of the government subsidy for tractors used for plowing and the lack of enthusiasm by farmers due to the low (below-average) prices since the beginning of the year. Farm labor (for the growing of hot off-season crops): The close to 118,804 IDPs present in the area will continue to compete with the local labor pool, which could reduce the incomes of very poor and poor households throughout the outlook period. These DPs are not expected to return home anytime between now and the end of the second half of the outlook period, which means there will be no change in income levels between June 2017 and January 2018. Pasture resources and herd movements: There is currently a well-below-average supply of pasture with the pressure from livestock and security problems in the northern part of the region. Things could improve by the middle of July with the expected normal start of the rains, providing a normal supply of pasture through January 2018. Livestock should be in adequate physical condition by July, with good milk availability and an improvement in livestock prices and pastoral incomes. However, income levels will remain below-average through January 2018.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018

Herd movements to the northern part of the Lac region could be slowed by the latest attacks by Boko Haram in the Kaïga area on May 5, 2017. Sources of income for very poor and poor households: There will be a contraction in many sources of income during the outlook period. o (Farm) labor: The DP presence will continue to affect wage rates for day labor by creating a labor glut, which will keep income levels from these activities low throughout the outlook period (from June 2017 through January 2018). o Crop sales: The low inventory levels due to the pressure from DPs will limit the volume of cereal sales and resulting sales revenues during the first half of the outlook period. o Livestock sales: In spite of the expected relative improvement in pastoral conditions as of July with the recovery of pastures, the slowdown in exports to Nigeria and resulting decline in livestock prices will continue to limit income from this source. o Sales of wild plant products: There will be below-average levels of income from this source during the lean season due to the large DP presence in foraging areas. o Firewood sales: This will not be a major source of income during the outlook period due to the government ban, not to mention the security threats. o Debt levels: There will be above-average levels of debt by local households between June and September, with an ensuing sharp reduction in debt levels in the second half of the outlook period due to the beginning of harvest.

Trade with Nigeria and Niger: Trade with Nigeria largely involves livestock. Current trade flows are extremely limited due to the security situation created by the conflict with Boko Haram. This will continue to be the case throughout the entire outlook period. The result will be larger supplies of livestock on markets in Chad, driving down prices. The current limited flow of trade with Niger for the same security reasons will slow even further in the first half of the outlook period and even into the early part of the second half of the outlook period due to the poor road conditions during the rainy season. Supply of food and livestock: The good harvests for the 2016/2017 growing season will continue to improve market supplies. There will be larger than usual supplies throughout the lean season due to the good inventory levels. As usual, the availability of fresh crops beginning in October will shore up market supplies through January 2018. Ongoing security problems will continue to sharply limit livestock exports from the Lake Chad area to Nigeria. Demand for food (institutional procurements) and livestock: There will continue to be a lower than usual demand for food crops during the first half of the outlook period with the ongoing government-subsidized cereal sales and humanitarian assistance programs. There will be a normal seasonal decline in demand during the harvesting period. There will be a continuing low demand for livestock exports with the slowdown in trade with Nigeria. However, there will be a growing local demand for small ruminants for the celebration of Tabaski and the year-end holiday season. Trends in maize prices on the Bol market: Movements in prices will be divided into the following two phases: (1) Maize prices will be above the five-year average between June and September, peaking in the month of September. (2) Prices are expected to steadily decline throughout the second half of the outlook period (Figure 2). Very poor and poor households will deplete their food stocks during the first half of the outlook period, becoming market-dependent. Thus, with the rising price of maize, the pressure from DPs, and the falling prices of livestock (with the lack of exports to Nigeria), households will be barely able to meet their food needs and will be facing a real food consumption gap until September. Conflicts and population movements: in spite of the recent attacks by Boko Haram and resulting casualties, the relative improvement in the security situation in this region could last for the entire outlook period, with rainy season conditions restricting the movements of members of Boko Haram to some extent. Humanitarian assistance: The WFP and its partners are conducting several humanitarian assistance programs for close to 120,000 DPs and refugees taking a variety of different forms. o There are conditional cash transfer (cash for work) programs underway in Kaya, Fouli, and Mamdi departments with 71,000 recipients (refugees, DPs, and host populations) at an average daily cost of 12,000 CFAF depending on the amount of work to be performed. These operations will run from May through September. o There is a blanket cash transfer program for a target group of 51,000 DPs, including 6,000 refugees, who will receive a monthly payment of 6,000 CFAF per person between June and December 2017.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018

o There is an ongoing operation for the control of malnutrition (including treatment for pregnant and breast-feeding women, monthly distributions of micronutrients, etc.) targeted mainly at a host population of 46,000 people, including 3600 children under two (2) years of age, in these same departments, running from June through December.

Most likely food security outcomes Between June and September, the levels of household food stocks will be at a record low compared with the norm, livestock will be in poorer than usual physical condition through the middle of July, and livestock prices will fall farther and farther below- average. Poor households will scale up their recourse to farm labor but, with their low rates of pay and the rising prices of cereals, they will be unable to bridge their food consumption gaps due to the pressure from DPs on the food stocks of host populations. In addition, the security problems created by ongoing conflicts will continue to affect livelihoods and cross-border trade with Nigeria. As a result, household food consumption will continue to be severely impacted by food shortages. Accordingly, these households will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) levels of acute food insecurity. Between October and January, during the post-rainy season, there will be a relative improvement in the food security situation with the harvest of rainfed crops, the delivery of humanitarian assistance, and the government-subsidized sales programs. Cereal availability will be bolstered by fresh crops from the harvest, which will help improve food consumption and nutrition. This will put households in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) phase of food insecurity.

EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK Table 1. Possible events over the next six months that could change the outlook Area Event Impact on food security conditions New outbreak of fighting in • Slowdown in cross-border trade with Libya and rise in the prices northern Nigeria and Libya of imported foods, making it difficult to meet food needs throughout the outlook period • Decline in livestock exports to Nigeria, slowdown in trade, and National decline in livestock prices, reducing the incomes of pastoral households and food consumption Economic and financial crisis • Limited employment opportunities/supply of work in urban areas and slowdown in cash remittances in rural areas • Negative effects on demand for food and nonfood products and services Lake Chad area New security threats from the • New security threats in riverine areas could disrupt household conflict with Boko Haram. livelihoods and the smooth flow of inter and intra-regional trade, triggering new population movements. Humanitarian assistance • Cereal sales by the ONASA and distributions of free food rations could help slow the upward trend in prices, strengthening the impact of cash transfer programs by humanitarian organizations during the outlook period. Reopening of the country’s • This could help bring down market prices by improving the flow borders with Nigeria of food trade.

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 10