CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018 Deterioration of food security conditions into a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation in parts of the Sahel KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes for June 2017 • The deterioration in food consumption by poor households in the Kanem, Bahr El Gazel (BEG), Wadi Fira, and Guera regions with the depletion of their food stocks, the earlier and harsher than usual lean season for pastoral populations, and the decline in household purchasing due to the falling prices of livestock has propelled these areas from the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) up into the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) phase of food insecurity. • The reopening of the country’s borders with Libya in early March helped improve supplies in the Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti (BET) regions. In spite of the atypical pattern of trade limited to three border crossings, it is improving the household food security situation. Thus, parts of this livelihood zone have been in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity since June. Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis • The shortages of pasture and watering holes are creating mediocre follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the pastoral conditions in Kanem, BEG, Batha, Guera, Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira, consensus of national food security partners. and Ennedi. On average, animals are traveling 15 to 20 kilometers to drink and graze on pasture. This is affecting their physical condition and reproductive performance, reducing milk production, and driving down livestock prices on most markets. • The expected average October harvests will provide poor households in nearly all parts of the country (with the exception of the Lac region) with average food stocks meeting their food needs through January 2018. This will put them in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1) phase of food insecurity between October 2017 and January 2018. Households in the Lac region will be in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation through September due to the magnitude of population displacements in that area. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Chad FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily [email protected] reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the www.fews.net/chad United States Government CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current Situation Farming conditions Projected food security outcomes, June through In general, the 2017/2018 growing season has started up. An September 2017 examination of cumulative rainfall anomalies shows large to moderate amounts of excess rainfall in the Sudanian zone and a slight to moderate deficit in the Sahelian zone. The crop planting period reportedly got underway two to three weeks earlier than usual in the Sudanian zone. There are reports of the wet planting of crops beginning as early as the end of April in southern areas of the country (instead of in the second and third weeks of May). These activities are finishing up, spurred by the good availability of soil water resources. There has reportedly been localized rainfall activity in most farming areas in the Sahelian zone, including Hadjer Lamis, North Guera, Salamat, and Southeastern Sila. These rains allowed farmers to expand their crop planting activities in certain areas (on average, planting three out of five fields in crops), but did not amount to useful rainfall in all areas. Source: FEWS NET The growing season for dry off-season crops in reclaimed polder areas of the Lac region is winding down, with maize harvests beginning at Projected food security outcomes, October 2017 through the end of May and extending through the middle of June, as is January 2018 normally the case. In line with the seasonal calendar, land preparation work (plowing, the construction of levees, the digging of irrigation ditches, etc.) for the growing season for rainfed crops is nearly completed. Market gardening activities in the Lac region are also winding up with the last harvests of fruits and vegetables. The harvest of market garden crops in Ouaddaï (onions, garlic, etc.) is completed and is larger than average owing to the good work of extension agents and the enthusiasm of local farmers. Pastoral conditions Pastoral conditions in the Sahelian zone are marked by unusual shortages of pasture and watering holes. Animals are traveling longer than average distances (15 to 20 kilometers in the Sahel and five to Source: FEWS NET seven kilometers in the Lac region) to drink at watering holes, which FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus is affecting their physical condition. of national food security partners. The lean season for pastoral populations in the Western Sahel is forcing pastoralists to stay south of this area in their search for pasture and drinking water. These movements are much more noticeable in the Lac region, where the security problems and lean season for pastoral populations in northern areas are forcing pastoralists to travel farther south to take advantage of the availability of crop residues from off-season crops and watering holes for their herds. Pastoral conditions in the Sudanian zone have been steadily improving since the first rainfall in that area at the end of April, two to three weeks earlier than usual. These rains helped spur steady new spontaneous vegetative growth and the replenishment of animal watering holes. In spite of the below-normal levels of pasture, there is a visible improvement in the physical condition of livestock. The early rains boosting the availability of fresh grasses in seasonal grazing areas in the Sudanian zone are continuing to delay the return of transhumant livestock herds to the transhumant pastoral zone. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2017 to January 2018 Farm labor In the Sudanian zone, start-of-season activities (plowing, planting, weeding, etc.) for the new growing season, which began ahead of schedule, are creating jobs for wage laborers slightly earlier than usual. There is a larger than usual supply of labor with the shutdown of construction sites and ensuing lay-offs and the late payment of cotton growers for the 2016-2017 cotton marketing season. This large labor pool has reduced the cost of labor. Wage rates in rice-growing areas are below-average, where workers transplanting rice seedlings normally earning 20,000 CFAF per paddy (1 paddy = 50 square meters) are currently being paid only 8,000 CFAF. The current rate of pay for ongoing crop planting and weeding activities in Mayo Boneye, Mont Illi, and Lac Léré departments and other parts of the south is 300 to 500 CFAF/day, compared with the norm of 500 to 1,000 CFAF. There is not yet a demand for labor in the Sahelian zone, where the growing season is expected to start sometime between the end of June and the middle of July (except in Guera, Batha, and Salamat where only family labor is used). There should be a normal need for wage labor for land preparation work for the growing season for rainfed crops in the Lac region. The labor surplus created by the presence of DPs is continuing to affect wage rates for day laborers, which, at 1,500 CFAF, are still in line with the average of 2,000 CFAF per person per day. Population movements Households from Abtouyour department in the Sahel are reportedly returning to their home villages after migrating to large cities at the beginning of the year in the wake of the shortfall in cereal production due to grain-eating bird infestations. While some of these households moved up their return for the observance of Ramadan, others are returning mainly for the start of the growing season. In the Western Sahel, the relative improvement in the security situation in the Lac region was reversed by the attack on the village of Kaiga (on May 5, 2017) by members of Boko Haram. This act of aggression displaced another 169 people, including 124 DPs and 45 returnees (according to the May 23-25, 2017 mission report by the Office of the Assistant Humanitarian Coordinator for the Lac Region). These new arrivals are adding to the ranks of the previously registered 118,804 DPs. Cereal supplies and availability Market supplies of cereals in all parts of the country are slightly above-average owing to the good production surplus from the 2016–2017 growing season. These supplies continue to meet consumer needs, with prices generally more or less below- average. However, certain low-production areas such as Kanem, BEG, Wadi Fira, and the Lac region are reporting below-normal market supplies due to security problems. There are adequate cereal supplies on southern markets in most parts of in the Sudanian zone with the exception of West Tandjilé (Kélo) and parts of East and West Mayo Kebbi (Bongor and Fianga Guelendeng), where supplies are low. The over 1,137 metric tons of institutional food stocks maintained by the ONASA (the National Food Security Agency) and approximately 147,670 metric tons of trader inventories are bolstering cereal availability on local markets. Demand for cereal crops There is reportedly a growing demand for cereal crops in the BEG, Hadjer Lamis, and Kanem regions of the Western Sahel with the depletion of food stocks and dependence on market purchases during the lean season. Cereal trade and prices There is a normal flow of inter- and intra-regional cereal trade in practically all parts of the country. There was an earlier than expected influx of maize from Cameroon (in March/April instead of June/July) into the Western Sahel (BEG, Hadjer Lamis, and Kanem).