A Model of Secular Stagnation⇤ Gauti B. Eggertsson† Neil R. Mehrotra‡ This version: October 12, 2014 Abstract We propose an overlapping generations New Keynesian model in which a permanent (or very persistent) slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full employment. The trigger for the slump is a deleveraging shock, which creates an oversupply of savings. Other forces that work in the same direction and can both create or exacerbate the problem include a drop in population growth, an increase in income inequality, and a fall in the relative price of investment. Our model sheds light on the long persistence of the Japanese crisis, the Great Depression, and the slow recovery out of the Great Recession. It also highlights several impli- cations for policy. Keywords: Secular stagnation, monetary policy, zero lower bound JEL Classification: E31, E32, E52 ⇤We would like to thank Olivier Blanchard, John Cochrane, Benjamin Keen, and Paolo Pesenti for helpful discussions and seminar participants at the Bank of England, Boston University, Brown University, European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Dallas, London School of Economics, LUISS Guido Carli, NBER Summer Institute MEFM and EFG meetings for comments. We would also like to thank Alex Mechanick for excellent research assistance. †Brown University, Department of Economics, e-mail: gauti
[email protected] ‡Brown University, Department of Economics, e-mail: neil
[email protected] 1 Introduction During the closing phase of the Great Depression in 1938, the President of the American Economic Association, Alvin Hansen, delivered a disturbing message in his Presidential Address to the As- sociation (see Hansen (1939)).