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Downtown Master Plan (Economic and Market Assessment) (April 2014)

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Downtown Master Plan (Economic and Market Assessment) (April 2014) Village of Palmetto Bay – Downtown Master Plan (Economic and Market Assessment) (April 2014) Village of Palmetto Bay – Downtown Master Plan (Economic & Market Assessment) TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................................................. 2 SECTION 1: STUDY AREA DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................................................................................ 7 SECTION 2: ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ..................................................................................................................................... 10 2a: Population & Households Profile ............................................................................................................................................................. 10 2b: Employment and Wages .......................................................................................................................................................................... 13 2c: Economic and Demographic Profile Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 15 SECTION 3: RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS AND DEMAND ESTIMATE .......................................................................................................... 17 3a: Housing Market Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................... 17 3b: Housing Demand Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................................ 20 SECTION 4: OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................................. 23 4a: Office Market Overview ........................................................................................................................................................................... 23 4b: Office Demand Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................................... 28 SECTION 5: RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS AND DEMAND ESTIMATE .................................................................................................................... 29 5a: Retail Market Overview ........................................................................................................................................................................... 29 6b: Retail Demand Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................ 33 APPENDIX Attachment 1: Village of Palmetto Bay Trade Area – Profile of Select Rental Apartments Attachment 1: Downtown Palmetto Bay Housing Demand Model Attachment 2: Downtown Palmetto Bay Trade Area Resident Retail Demand Analysis (Model) 1 | Page Village of Palmetto Bay – Downtown Master Plan (Economic & Market Assessment) SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Lambert Advisory (Lambert) was engaged by Bermello, Ajamil & Partners (B&A, the Prime Consultant to the Village of Palmetto Bay) to provide the economic and market analysis associated with the Downtown Master Plan. A primary objective of the Downtown planning process is to identify the opportunity for a mixed use development which emphasizes a sense of place and destination for the residents of the Village. Lambert has completed its economic and market analysis of the real estate demand potential for the proposed Downtown area. The body of this report includes our assessment of market conditions and trends impacting residential and commercial development proposed to be integrated within the Downtown Master Plan. The opportunity for development within the Downtown area is primarily based upon the market supply and demand conditions within Miami Dade County, the Village of Palmetto Bay and the Downtown Trade Area - as illustrated below and discussed in detail in Section 1 of this report. Figure 1: Village of Palmetto Bay – Downtown Trade Area and Downtown Area Boundary Map 2 | Page Village of Palmetto Bay – Downtown Master Plan (Economic & Market Assessment) This section provides a highlight of conclusions with a summary of demand estimates (by use), as well as strategic recommendations to help guide the Downtown Master Plan. The estimates of demand and recommendations herein have been prepared in the effort to understand and define the market-driven housing and commercial development opportunities for the Downtown Master Plan. Importantly, any financial feasibility and/or land evaluation prepared on the basis of this analysis is subject to design, building cost, parking and regulatory requirements that have not been made a part of this analysis. Following is a summary of demand by use: Residential: Miami Dade County’s economic and housing climate is still in recovery mode from the Great Recession, but the projected economic and demographic fundamentals in the region support long term growth in the housing market. The multifamily housing market is planning for considerable delivery of inventory driven by significant condominium development in Downtown Miami and the coastal/beach areas. However, there is also considerable activity among multifamily rental development, particularly in south Dade County. The multifamily rental market affecting the opportunity for housing development within Village of Palmetto Bay is relatively strong, with occupancy greater than 95 percent. However, the majority of inventory is older in nature, and rental rates overall are still relatively modest; particularly, in the sense of supporting a large amount of new market rate development in the near term. As detailed within Section 2, the demand for housing for the Downtown Master Plan is based upon regional household growth projections, forecast demand for market rate multifamily housing, and the propensity for the Village’s Trade Area and Downtown to capture this growth over the next ten years. It also considers existing “pent-up” demand which is largely the result of a lack of existing mid- to higher density multifamily product within the Village given regulatory, infrastructure and/or other physical challenges associated with accommodating this type housing development. Based upon historical trends and population projections, there is demand for approximately 1,200 multifamily market rate housing units in the Downtown area during the next ten year period (which we consider to represent demand under a Trending Scenario). However, we have also undertaken an analysis that considers that the Village of Palmetto Bay and its Downtown area may be in a position to capture well more than its fair share of demand based upon the trending analysis contemplating the Village’s strong school district, a highly successful implementation of the Downtown Master Plan and continued improvement in the surrounding corridor. For this, the multifamily housing demand for Downtown area increases to approximately 1,700 units over the next 10 years (referred to herein as the High Scenario). Importantly, for master planning purposes, we recommend the planners rely upon the trending scenario, but allow for flexibility to accommodate the higher demand. In either case, the analysis considers demand for either ownership (condominium) and/or rental product supported by primary residents (and therefore does not account for any potential additional development that may be built 3 | Page Village of Palmetto Bay – Downtown Master Plan (Economic & Market Assessment) largely for investors/speculators). In terms of housing pricing, and specific to the rental market, The base asking monthly rental rates for newer (premium) units within the market area (ie. Dadeland) is in the range of $1.80 per square foot. We assume that this would apply to the Village; therefore, with an estimated average unit size of roughly 1,050 square feet, the average asking monthly rent would generally be in range of $1,800 to $1,900. For ownership (condominium), the pricing is estimated to be within the range of $250,000 to $350,000. Office: Since the end of the recession in 2009, unemployment in Miami Dade County has continued to decline. Moreover, an analysis of office employment projections based upon CBRE/EA1 and Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (FDEO) data through 2019 indicates growth in Miami Dade County’s office employment of approximately 3,900 jobs per year through this period. Miami Dade County has 100 million square feet of office space, of which the Village of Palmetto Bay (and Trade Area) comprises roughly 1.0 million square feet of total inventory. The majority of office space in Palmetto Bay is Class C space, equal to 59 percent; more than double the 28 percent share of Class C space in Miami-Dade County. Approximately 78 percent of the office space in the Village of Palmetto Bay was built before 1970, and 89 percent before 1990. Since 2007, the impact of the recession pushed the office occupancy level in the Village down below 84 percent in 2012, but has since improved to nearly 88 percent in the Village
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