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Hedge Fund in Today's Changing Market

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Hedge Fund in Today's Changing Market Hedge fund fundactivity in today’stoday’s changing changing market market AugustDecember 2014 2016 Year-End Summary Our 2016 year-end report examines the trophy market performance over the past year, including: • New highs achieved in Hudson Yards and Midtown South submarkets • Deal volume with starting rents above $100 per sq. ft. • Top tier buildings and landlords that outperformed the market At year-end 2016, the vacancy rate for Midtown’s trophy building submarket increased to 8.8% from 7.0% at the end of last year. The Midtown Class A vacancy rate also increased steadily throughout the year to 11.8%, representing a 1.4% increase from year-end 2015. As expected, rents in the high-end sector of the held steady throughout the year. The average asking rent for direct space in Midtown trophy buildings increased just 1% year-over-year from $103.61 per sq. ft. to $104.41 per sq. ft. Midtown Trophy Market Direct Rents and Vacancy by Quarter Midtown Trophy Asking Rent Midtown Trophy Vacancy Rate $110 15% 13.0% 12.1% $100 10.5% $104.41 $104.02 $103.61 $103.30 10% $102.69 $102.31 $101.32 8.4%$99.58 $100.53 $98.27 $98.11 $90 $98.10 $97.73 $97.33 $97.29 $97.10 8.8% $96.24 $95.37 $93.99 $93.81 $92.57 $92.43 8.5%$91.98 8.0% $80 $90.36 7.0% $84.82 5% $84.65 Vacancy rate $84.03 $83.28 $70 $80.28 Asking rent per square foot $60 0% Hedge fund fundactivity in today’stoday’s changing changing market market AugustDecember 2014 2016 Deal Trends - $100 per sq. ft. Transactions Despite hedge fund industry volatility and economic- and election-related uncertainty of 2016, many tenants had an appetite for trophy quality office space, for which landlords maintained strong rents. These strong rental achievements were often accompanied by very robust concessions (i.e. tenant improvement allowance/buildout and free rent) afforded to tenants. In 2016, 106 transactions were completed at starting rents of $100 per sq. ft. or higher. While this number falls short of the 2015 peak of 138 transactions, it surpasses the 97 deals signed in 2014. These $100+ deals represent approximately 2.1 million sq. ft., or 9% of the 24 million sq. ft. leased in Midtown and Midtown South in 2016. There were 44 buildings in the $100 club in 2016, a slight drop from the 50 buildings on last year’s list. Several new entrants include new construction such as 55 West 46th Street, 7 Bryant Park and 425 Park Avenue in traditional Midtown submarkets, as well as 10 Hudson Yards and 30 Hudson Yards. Demand for new construction was strong in 2016, particularly in the Hudson Yards submarket, where over 871,000 sq. ft. was leased this year. For the first time ever, Hudson Yards signed five deals (totaling 141,954 sq. ft.) at rents exceeding $100 per sq. ft., solidifying this submarket as a destination for forward- thinking and high-end tenants who value the new construction in this dynamic neighborhood. As we discussed last month, 91% of the tenants lured to Hudson Yards will vacate space in more traditional Midtown submarkets, such as the large financial user who agreed to lease 850,000 sq. ft. at Related Companies’ 50 Hudson Yards. Other highlights include: • A record setting 26%, or 572,628 sq. ft., of the $100+ deals was leased in new construction. • 375 Park Avenue (The Seagram Building) completed twelve $100+ transactions in 2016 and has achieved the most high priced transactions per year since 2010. Tied for second place, 450 Park Avenue and 767 Fifth Avenue (GM Building) both attained 7 transactions. • Landlords who leased the most space at $100+ per sq. ft. rents are Boston Properties (437,840 sq. ft. – 18 deals), Vornado (394,898 sq. ft. – 11 deals), Oxford Properties (220,906 sq. ft. – 15 deals), L&L Holding Company (211,000 sq. ft. – 1 deal) and Related Companies (201,854 sq. ft. – 6 deals). • For the second year in a row, 767 Fifth Avenue (GM Building) has achieved the highest starting rent in Midtown at $220 per sq. ft. • The majority of these deals involved financial services tenants (79%), however, 2016 saw an increase in the number of technology and other non-traditional office users seeking high-end space in both Midtown and Midtown South. The decline from 138 deals to 106 deals was attributed to decreased demand from hedge funds and private equity firms. 26 hedge funds 8 private equity firms 50 other financial 22 non-financial (compared to 42 38% (compared to 28 29% (investment banks, 16% (legal, consulting, 0% in 2015) in 2015) wealth management, software, technology, venture capital) real estate) (compared to 42 (compared to 22 in 2015) in 2015) • In 2016, the average size of these transactions increased from last year’s average of 15,000 sq. ft. to 20,342 sq. ft. The largest leases of the year included a hedge fund that leased 211,000 sq. ft. at 425 Park Avenue, a financial tenant that renewed at 731 Lexington Avenue for 191,780 sq. ft. and two financial users who renewed at 399 Park Avenue, both for approximately 100,000 sq. ft. Hedge fund fundactivity in today’stoday’s changing changing market market AugustDecember 2014 2016 Deal Trends - $100 per sq. ft. Transactions • This year’s transactions were the most geographically diverse. Midtown South outperformed, leasing more than twice as much space at $100+ rents than in 2015 (269,453 sq. ft. vs. 115,015 sq. ft. last year). Once again, Plaza District buildings leased the majority of space at premium rents – 62% of the 2.1MM sq. ft. total. The geographic divisions were: 1,336,000 sq. ft. in the Plaza District 141,954 sq. ft. in Hudson Yards 292,643 sq. ft. in Bryant Park 95,662 sq. ft. in Midtown West 269,453 sq. ft. in Midtown South 20,552 sq. ft. in Grand Central RSF by Submarket Grand Midtown Central West Hudson Yards Midtown South Bryant Park Plaza RSF by Landlord – Top 10 RSF by Building – Top 10 Landlord RSF Building RSF Boston Properties 437,840 399 Park Avenue 225,728 Vornado 394,898 425 Park Avenue 211,000 Oxford Properties 220,906 1095 Avenue of the Americas 210,847 L&L Holding Company 211,000 731 Lexington Avenue 191,789 Related Companies 201,854 10 Hudson Yards 96,954 SL Green 124,465 375 Park Avenue 96,406 RFR 96,406 767 Fifth Avenue 75,020 Bank of China 81,796 601 Lexington Avenue 65,775 Romanoff Equities 60,110 450 Park Avenue 65,636 Paramount Group 39,175 860 Washington Street 60,110 Hedge fund fundactivity in today’stoday’s changing changing market market AugustDecember 2014 2016 $100+ per sq. ft. Transactions Completed in 2016 - by Building 14 12 12 10 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 Number of Deals Number 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 7 Bryant Park 7 770 Broadway 9 W 57thStreet 9 860 Washington 767 Fifth Avenue767 Fifth Avenue712 Fifth Avenue717 Fifth Avenue745 Fifth 85 85 Avenue Tenth 280 Park Avenue 280 Park 375 Park Avenue375 Park Avenue450 Park Avenue350 Park Avenue399 Park Avenue299 Park Avenue425 Park Avenue277 Park Avenue499 Park Avenue230 Park 10 Hudson 10 Yards Hudson 30 Yards Hudson 641 Sixth 641 Sixth Avenue 25055th W Street 111 Eighth Avenue111 Eighth 65 East 55th Street 65 55th East 10 Street10 53rd East 55 West 46th Street 55 46th West 404 14th Street West 660 Madison Avenue 660 Madison 510 Madison Avenue510 Madison Avenue667 Madison Avenue650 Madison Avenue590 Madison Avenue520 Madison Avenue437 Madison Avenue645 Madison 601 Lexington 601 Lexington Avenue 731 Lexington Avenue 450 Lexington Avenue 315 Park AvenueSouth 315 Park 1095 Avenue of the 1095Avenue the Americas of 1330Avenue the Americas of 1114Avenue the Americas of 1350Avenue the Americas of Top-Tier Transactions - $100+ Starting Rents 160 138 140 120 106 97 100 91 81 80 80 60 56 Number of Deals Number 50 51 40 18 18 19 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Hedge fund fundactivity in today’stoday’s changing changing market market AugustDecember 2014 2016 $100+ per sq. ft. Transactions Deal Size 35 33 30 29 25 20 18 15 11 10 8 Number of Deals Number 7 20,342 sq. ft. 5 average size 0 < 5,000 sf 5,000-10,000 sf 10,001-15,000 sf 15,001-30,000 sf 31,000-50,000 sf > 50,000 sf.
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