A conversation with Edward Weiler EASA: Moving toward proactive regulation

2009

APUBLICATIONOFTHEAMERICANINSTITUTEOFAERONAUTICSANDASTRONAUTICS FLYING skies greener September

AAcover909-fin.qxd:AA Template 8/12/09 12:42 PM Page 1 Page PM 12:42 8/12/09 Template AAcover909-fin.qxd:AA 8 AEROSPACE AMERICA SEPTEMBER 2009 toc.SEP2009.qxd:AA Template 8/14/09 12:45 PM Page 1

September 2009

DEPARTMENTS EDITORIAL 3 The promise of thinking green.

INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Page 4 A blueprint for defense cooperation.

WASHINGTON WATCH 8 Waiting for new directions.

CONVERSATIONS 12 With Edward J. Weiler. Page 20 AIRCRAFT UPDATE 16 Jetliners wait for hard times.

EYE ON ELECTRONICS 20 JSF sensors: Dominant and delayed.

OUT OF THE PAST 44

CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 46 Page 24

FEATURES MILITARY AVIATION GOES GREEN 24 The combination of alternative fuels,even more efficient engines, and airframe changes should result in greater fuel efficiency. by Mark J.Lewis

FUELING THE GREEN AIRPLANE 32 Efforts to develop environmentally friendly fuels are yielding results, with more and more airlines making successful flights using new biofuel blends. by Frank Sietzen Jr. Page 32 EASA:MOVING TOWARD PROACTIVE REGULATION 38 Working hand in hand with both manufacturers and airlines, EASA’a goal is to make flying Europe’s skies as safe as possible. by Philip Butterworth-Hayes

BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4 AIAA News B5 Meeting Program B14

COVER More efficient airframes and engines and fuels derived from plants like jatropha and camelina may help lessen our Page 38 dependence on fossil fuels and allow the planet to breathe a bit more easily.Cover design by Fitzgerald Art & Design.

Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344 [703/264-7577]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, VA, and at additional mailing offices. Copyright © 2009 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 47, No. 8. sept09.edit.qxd:AA Template 8/17/09 11:55 AM Page 1

®

is a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor Greg Wilson Production Editor The promise of thinking green Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change treaty was generated at the U.N. Conference on Environment and Development, held Correspondents in Rio de Janeiro. Five years later, the more commonly known follow-up Kyoto Robert F. Dorr, Washington Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe Accord was adopted, and as of January 2009, ratified by 183 parties. The treaty Michael Westlake, Hong Kong and follow-up protocol committed most of the signatories to greenhouse gas emis- sion reductions, most notably carbon dioxide, of varying degrees over the course Contributing Writers of time. Richard Aboulafia, John Binder, James W. Canan, Marco Cáceres, Edward Flinn, Today, more than 10 years later, debate continues as to the causes and Tom Jones, Théo Pirard, David Rockwell, effects of climate change, especially with regard to anthropogenic contribu- Frank Sietzen, J.R. Wilson tions. Critics say the science is faulty; proponents point to the receding polar icecaps as a bellwether of a planet in increasing peril. The debate will continue, Fitzgerald Art & Design Art Direction and Design as we develop more and more efficient measurement tools and a deeper under- standing of the Earth as an ecosystem. Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution In all of the studies of greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on cli- David W. Thompson, President mate change, aviation has always been considered to be a minor contributor. Robert S. Dickman, Publisher But the sheer numbers of aircraft, both civil and military, filling the skies, and STEERING COMMITTEE the altitudes at which they fly, mean that they have significant impact. Aircraft Michael B Bragg, University of Illinois; burn fossil fuels; those fuels emit carbon dioxide directly into the atmosphere. Philip Hattis, Draper Laboratory; Mark S Those fuels are also expensive, nonrenewable, and, to a great extent, hold Maurice, AFOSR; Laura McGill, Raytheon; us hostage to foreign interests. So the growing research into the development George Muellner, Boeing; Merri Sanchez, of alternative fuels is of great value in its own right, leaving aside the increas- National Aeronautics and Space Administra- ingly heated climate change debate. Bio-derived fuels, particularly those derived tion; Mary Snitch, Lockheed Martin from non-food stocks; methanol; ethanol; liquid hydrogen; and synthetics may EDITORIAL BOARD provide the means for escaping the current chokehold oil has on the industry Ned Allen, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics; and our economy. Not one is the silver bullet; they all require further study and, Jean-Michel Contant, EADS; Eugene frankly, more money—at least for now. Covert, Massachusetts Institute of Technol- But as we develop new fuels, particularly ones that require little or no mod- ogy; L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Texas A&M Uni- ifications to existing engines, the potential for savings both monetary and envi- versity; Michael Francis, United Technologies; ronmental is great. Another economic plus is the development of a new indus- Christian Mari, Teuchos; Cam Martin, try—farms for these stocks, for example, and refineries for processing them. NASA Dryden; Don Richardson, Donrich Research; Douglas Yazell, Honeywell And while developing new fuels that are engine-friendly is a plus, develop- ing new, even more fuel-efficient engines may yield even greater gains. This ADVERTISING effort presents great challenges—today’s engines are incredibly efficient ma- National Display and Classified: chines. But several manufacturers, along with the Air Force Research Labora- Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 tory, are attempting to do just that. [email protected] Modifying airframes for maximum aerodynamic efficiency will also con- West Coast Display: Greg Cruse, tribute to the reduction in fuel consumption. Even minor changes, such as the 949.361.1870 / [email protected] addition of winglets to an aircraft’s wing, result in fuel savings, as might lighter Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 weight materials. And the Air Force, in particular, is also looking at more dra- Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA matic modifications, such as the blended wing, down the line. 20191-4344. Changes of address should be Each of these efforts, individually, is a plus for the future of aviation and sent to Customer Service at the same address, our economy. Taken together, they are also a plus for our planet. by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax at Elaine Camhi 703/264-7606. Editor-in-Chief Send Letters to the Editor to Elaine Camhi at the same address or [email protected] September 2009, Vol. 47, No. 8 BEATlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:00 PM Page 2

Ablueprintfordefensecooperation

THERE IS ONE SURE WAYTO DEFINE A COUNTRY’S nated Arrangement for Military Peace follows a report on improving coopera- position in the world, in terms of its Support (NORDCAPS), and the 2008 tion between the countries drawn up by technical capabilities, political affiliations Nordic Supportive Defense Structures former Norwegian foreign minister and military intent—look at the type of (NORDSUP). Thorvald Stoltenberg earlier this year, front-line fighter it chooses. NORDAC was formed when Den- and generally regarded as the blueprint In June, Denmark’s Defense Minister mark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden for closer cooperation. (For more infor- Søren Gade announced that he was agreed to a closer cooperation on arma- mation see: http://www.regjerigenno/ postponing a decision on whether to re- ments development and procurement— en/dep/ud/press/News/2009/nord place the country’s fleet of 48 Lockheed the countries have cooperated on pro- icreport.html?id=545325.) Martin F-16s with either Saab JAS-39 curing helicopters, armored infantry According to a joint ministerial state- Gripens or Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint combat vehicles, artillery-locating radars, ment following the Kotka meeting, “the Strike Fighters. and armored wheeled vehicles as part of Ministers decided to merge the previ- The choice will have major implica- the agreement. NORDCAPS was organ- ously separate arrangements into one tions not just for Denmark and the com- ized to coordinate Nordic capabilities comprehensive structure that comprises panies involved but for the entire north- within U.N. and other peacekeeping op- defense policy, capability development, ern European area. The Nordic countries erations. NORDSUP encompasses more and crisis management operations. The (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, wide-ranging cooperation in defense re- goal since the last ministerial in Novem- and Iceland) have for decades offered the lated areas, such as procurement of de- ber 2008 has been to create one stream- blueprint for how neighboring countries fense materiel, armed forces education, lined, effectively working, and yet clear with different political affiliations can co- and defense research. and simple structure.” operate in a wide range of aerospace, Under the May 2009 agreement, a According to Stoltenberg, the large aviation, and defense issues. The institu- new cooperative structure will be in and steadily increasing costs associated tional arrangements for cooperation place starting January 2010, integrating with the procurement of modern de- among the Nordic states have formed these different areas. The new structure fense technology may mean “…the size the basis, in many areas, for the way the European Union has evolved. Institutional and defense cooperation in Nordic states Challenges and collaborations Institutional cooperation began in 1952 with the Swedish city of Malmö. This should pro- Beyond the key issues of capability, the launch of the Nordic Council, comprising 87 duce savings of €10.2 million over the current price, and support for its domestic aero- elected members of the member countries’ system and a 27% increase in capacity once the space industry, the Danish defense min- respective parliaments. This was followed in center is put into operation. istry, in considering a choice between 1971 by the establishment of the Nordic Council A more wide-ranging North European the Gripen and JSF, will have to consider of Ministers, which has become the main insti- ANS Providers (NEAP) cooperation will develop a number of complex and evolving chal- tution for intergovernmental cooperation. One common operating practices and systems to lenges. For instance, there are new of the results of this cooperation has been the support air navigation services in Denmark, establishment of an integrated labor market Norway, Sweden, Iceland, Finland, and Estonia. threats of instability in the Baltic and Arc- that in many respects sets the agenda for the In 2008 Sweden, Finland, Norway, Ireland, tic areas, and new commitments to in- development of the EU internal market. and Estonia created the Nordic Battlegroup of ternational peace-keeping missions. To In aerospace and defense, the countries— around 2,800 soldiers to support EU foreign meet these challenges the Nordic states despite different political and military affilia- and security policies. This was slightly unusual have embarked on a new policy of de- tions—are building increasingly close ties. in that it did not contain EU member Denmark fense collaboration that will take the pro- For example, Denmark, Sweden, and Nor- —which has opted out of the EU common for- cess further and deeper than anywhere way set up the world’s first transnational flag- eign and security policy—but it did contain else in the world. carrier airline in 1946, when Denmark’s Det Norway, which is not an EU member state. In May defense ministers from the Danske Luftfartselskab, Sweden’s Svensk In- Moreover, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Ice- Nordic countries met in Kotka, Finland, terkontinental Lufttrafik, and Norway’s Det land, and Finland have set up their own “com- Norske Luftfartselskap were merged to create mon research and development area” called to discuss ways to streamline and im- SAS Airlines. More recently, Sweden’s Luft- NORIA, the Nordic Research and Innovation prove cooperation. So far cooperation fartsverket and Denmark’s NAVIAIR air naviga- Area, with research agencies and universities has centered on three agreements: the tion service providers created a single upper working to commonly agreed technology re- 1994 Nordic Armaments Cooperation airspace area managed by a single center in search aims. (NORDAC), the 1997 Nordic Coordi-

4 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 BEATlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:00 PM Page 3

The Danes will have to consider a wide gamut of issues in choosing between the F-35 and the JAS Gripen.

of certain units may fall below a critical be a Europe where only countries like In June Nordic foreign ministers met limit, and in such a situation it is natural France, Russia, the U.K., and Germany in Reykjavik to discuss the Stoltenberg that small countries should consider co- have their own modern defense forces. report further. They agreed that, as mat- operating on, for example, procurement, Looking 15 to 20 years down the road, ters of priority, new cooperative efforts maintenance, exercises, and education. none of the Nordic countries will be able should be made to provide operational The alternative to cooperation could be to maintain their armed forces at their air surveillance assistance to Iceland, the a situation where small and medium- current size and quality without closer development of a civilian maritime and sized countries lose their ability to main- Nordic cooperation.” environmental surveillance system, and tain a credible defense. The result could Stoltenberg has proposed a joint ap- the development of new search and res- proach to military transport operations cue options for the Arctic and high north and procurement, a combined military areas. They will seek to enlarge this co- medical unit, joint education and training operative to include other Baltic states. for military personnel, wider cooperation These partners, however, do have on equipment purchasing, joint use of slightly different strategic defense priori- exercise ranges, and the establishment ties. Norway and Finland have long bor- of a Nordic amphibious unit. ders with Russia and new concerns In terms of military transport: “The about Russian military activities in the goal should be to establish a combined high north and Arctic areas. command unit, to which the Nordic “In general, Finland is privileged to countries would make available elements be located in one of the safest corners of that would form part of a Nordic trans- the world,” said Finnish Minister of De- port unit,” according to Stoltenberg. It fense Jyri Häkämies speaking in Wash- would pave the way for joint procure- ington in June 2009. “However, given ment and joint negotiations for the pur- our geographical location, the three Finland is updating its F-18s. chase of transport capacity. main security challenges for Finland to-

NORDIC COUNTRY AFFILIATIONS AND FIGHTER CHOICES Country Population Affiliations Fighter aircraft Denmark 5.4 million NATO, EU, with an opt-out on membership in the Euro and Lockheed Martin F-16 the EU’s foreign and security policy Finland 5.3 million EU Boeing F/A-18 Norway 4.8 million NATO Lockheed Martin F-16; F-35 planned as a replacement Sweden 9.2 million EU Saab JAS-39

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 5 BEATlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:00 PM Page 4

day are Russia, Russia, and Russia. And up again in the sea areas around Iceland Choosing the next fighter not only for Finland, but for all of us…. and northern Scotland. After the well- Finland and Norway rely on U.S. front- Russia will continue to be a strong re- publicized expedition to the North Pole, line fighters. Finland’s F/A-18 Hornets gional actor in the High North. Strategic the Russian interest in the polar areas is are in the middle of a midlife update pro- importance of the Kola Peninsula will clear, and the Baltic Sea is getting all the gram, and the government is discussing wake up Russian military interests from more important in the next few years as with the U.S. gaining access to further their decade-long hibernation, as is at- one of the main routes for Russian en- military technology. The Norwegian gov- tested by the Russian bombers showing ergy exports.” ernment has already decided to replace its F-16 with the F-35, and its aerospace industry is now deeply embedded in the JSF program. In July, Northrop Grum- man selected Norway’s Kongsberg to be Events Calendar as a strategic partner in the program, SEPT. 14-17 producing carbon fiber components. AIAA Space 2009 Conference and Exposition, Pasadena, Calif. For Sweden and Denmark, their im- Contact: 703/264-7500 mediate focus is more closely tied to the Baltic and improving security arrange- SEPT. 20-24 ments with other Baltic states such as Es- Smart Materials, Adaptive Structures, and Intelligent Systems, Oxnard, Calif. tonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Denmark Contact: Prof. Diann Brei, 248/891-9275; [email protected] flies the F-16, which was bought as part SEPT. 21-23 of a joint arms purchase with three other Ninth AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference; NATO countries: Norway, Netherlands, and Aircraft Noise and Emissions Reduction Symposium. Hilton Head, S.C. and Belgium. It is coming under increas- Contact: 703/264-7500 ing pressure to choose the Swedish-built SEPT. 22-24 Saab Gripen for its F-16 replacement. Sixth AIAA Biennial National Forum on Weapon System Effectiveness, The Danish and Swedish defense min- Tucson, Ariz. istries have signed a memorandum of Contact: 703/264-7500 understanding regarding Gripen, which includes the development of work on the OCT. 1-2 aircraft for the “Gripen DK Team.” Resolving Uncertainties in Airframe Noise Testing and CAA Code Danish Aerotech A/S and Saab AB Validation, Bucharest, Romania. have agreed to a cooperative agreement Contact: L. Koop, [email protected] worth up to DK 200 million if Denmark OCT. 12-16 decides to purchase the Gripen. Danish Sixtieth International Astronautical Congress: Space for Sustainable Aerotech is expecting to supply Saab Peace and Progress, Daejeon, Korea. with mechanical, electrical and electronic Contact: http://iac2009.kr/ components as part of the new coopera- tion agreement. OCT. 19-22 But the Danish government has also Sixteenth AIAA/DLR/DGLR International Space Planes and Hypersonic invested millions of kroner in the JSF Systems and Technologies Conference, Bremen, Germany. program, and six Danish companies— Contact: 703/264-7500 E. Falck Schmidt, IFAD, Infocom Sys- OCT. 21-22 tems, Maersk Data, Systematic, and International Symposium of Personal and Commercial Spaceflight, Terma—have established the Danish JSF Las Cruces, N.M. Team (JSFDK) to support Denmark’s Contact: www.ispcs.com continued participation in the develop- ment and production of JSF. OCT. 25-29 Hence, the Danish government has IEEE/AIAA 28th Digital Avionics Systems Conference, Orlando, Fla. a series of complex issues to consider be- Contact: T. Redling, 903/457-7822; [email protected] fore it reaches a decision on a new front- OCT. 26-28 line fighter. So far, front-line aircraft pro- Eighteenth International Meshing Roundtable, Salt Lake City, Utah. curement has remained outside the Contact: Jacqueline Hunter, 505/284-6969; [email protected] growing list of areas in which Nordic countries have agreed to cooperate. But NOV. 3-6 both Gripen and the JSF have been de- NDIA Aircraft Combat Survivability Symposium, Monterey, Calif. veloped to operate within a network-en- Contact: Meredith Geary, 703/247-9476; [email protected] abled communications environment in which aircraft operators share data and

6 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 BEATlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:00 PM Page 5

The argument that density is less for fuel-rich mixture ratios, is also a fallacy. Density is a function of the specific heat ratio times pressure divided by the gas constant and temperature. Temperature is a maximum for stoi- chiometric mixture ratios, and density is therefore minimum even though pres- sure also increases with mixture ratio. Because efficient APREs use less fuel, the fuel weight is less, and the cost Some Scandinavian nations have already replaced their aging F-16 fleet. is less. Because less fuel is used, the fuel tanks are smaller. Because the tanks are command/control functions with land, derstand whether the process of inte- smaller, they weigh less, cost less, and sea, and other airborne platforms. For grating automated airborne communica- have less aerodynamic drag. This means the Nordic concept of shared defense as- tions systems within a common Nordic APREs will put a greater payload in orbit sets to function fully, neighboring coun- network will favor a U.S. or a European at lesser cost. One half pound of payload tries will soon have to develop new—or fighter platform. is gained for each pound of weight saved evolve existing—network-enabled com- Philip Butterworth-Hayes on the vehicle. This is the benefit of de- munications systems. Brighton,U.K. veloping APREs. They will maintain the It will take just a little longer to un- [email protected] U.S. leadership in space, and are a valid reason for the expenditure of public funds. APREs are the future of rocketry. U.S. space policy should be to develop APREs, operating at stoichiometric mix- ture ratios, before we do anything else. In the interest of full disclosure, I sub- The editorial Asking the right ques- cognoscenti who believe existing rocket mitted my name to be a candidate for tions (June, page 3) deserves comment. engines, operating with fuel-rich mixture the position of the NASA administrator. We have an irrational, unreasonable, ratios, are the ultimate in rocket engine Dale L.Jensen and illogical space policy. Why? technology. They are misinformed. This JENTEC •It is irrational, unreasonable, and il- may be why the space shuttle was never logical to retire the space shuttle before improved or upgraded. vvv we have a replacement vehicle. Everyone should know that stoichio- A hot rod for the solar system (July- •It is irrational, unreasonable, and il- metric mixture ratios are optimum. It is a August, page 38) provided a useful de- logical to return to the Moon or venture fallacy that fuel-rich mixture ratios are scription of the VASIMR engine. Read- to Mars before we have efficient ad- optimum, because no energy is obtained ers may also want to understand why it vanced performance rocket engines from unused hydrogen. For every pound is useful. Higher specific impulse is bet- (APREs) to perform these missions. of unused hydrogen carried aloft 50,000 ter, right? Not always! Chemical combus- It was premature, and irresponsible, Btu of energy are lost. Unused hydrogen tion rockets are thrust limited. Many en- of the previous administration to man- uses energy to increase its potential en- gines for use in space, however, are date that NASA return to the Moon and ergy level to the potential of the rest of power limited. The power supply really venture to Mars. the mixture. Enthalpy lost to the unused is the largest part of the propulsion sys- A commission, headed by Mr. Au- hydrogen, in Btus per second, is equal to tem for solar-electric propulsion, for ex- gustine, is reviewing whether we should specific heat times the difference in tem- ample. When such engines are used in continue this policy using the premature perature between the mixture and the deep space, high specific impulse is Ares vehicle or change to a comparably liquid hydrogen times the weight of ex- good. Near a planet, however, where inefficient, but extant, evolved expend- cess hydrogen delivered per second. gravity is high, the thrust is important. able vehicle. Neither is appropriate, be- Consequently, the greater the excess Higher thrust can reduce the gravity cause both are inefficient and therefore hydrogen there is, the less energy re- losses. With limited power, higher spe- more costly than they should be. mains available that can be converted cific impulse leads to lower thrust. The There is also a large group of rocket into kinetic energy. VASIMR is unique in that it can operate over a range of specific impulse values, allowing the specific impulse to be se- All letters addressed to the editor are considered to be submitted for possible publication, unless lected at the optimum at each point in it is expressly stated otherwise. All letters are subject to editing for length and to author response. Letters should be sent to: Correspondence, Aerospace America, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, the mission. Suite 500, Reston, VA 20191-4344, or by e-mail to: [email protected]. James A. Martin Huntington Beach, Calif.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 7 WATCHlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:45 PM Page 2

Waiting for new directions

MANY IN WASHINGTON WHO WONDER WHAT Upon taking office, Bolden lies ahead for human spaceflight are said, “If we choose to lead, we looking not to NASA’s new boss but to a must build on our investment retired aerospace executive. Norman in the international space sta- Augustine is head of a presidential com- tion, accelerate development mittee that has been reviewing options of our next-generation launch for NASA’s future and was to present a systems to enable expansion final report by this month. of human exploration, en- As soon as the Senate confirmed re- hance NASA’s capability to tired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Charles F. study Earth’s environment, Bolden as NASA administrator on July lead space science to new 15, it became apparent that neither the achievements, continue cut- White House nor the agency would be ting-edge aeronautics research, making any major space policy pro- support the innovation of nouncements in advance of the commis- American entrepreneurs, and sion’s findings. The Senate also con- inspire a rising generation of On the eve of the 40th anniversary of Apollo 11’s first human firmed Lori B. Garver as NASA deputy boys and girls to seek careers landing on the Moon, Apollo 11 crew members Buzz Aldrin, Mike Collins, and Neil Armstrong and NASA Mission Control creator administrator. in science, technology, engi- Chris Kraft gathered at the National Air and Space Museum. Bolden and Garver took office at a neering, and math.” Photo courtesy NASA/Bill Ingalls. Washington moment when spaceflight It was no accident that the was in the news. The 16-day STS-127 new administrator began with “If.” Pres- 11 astronauts Neil Armstrong, Buzz mission by the shuttle Endeavor, which ident Barack Obama had said very early Aldrin, and Michael Collins, several launched from Cape Canaveral July 15 in his presidential campaign that he spaceflight veterans expressed exaspera- after a near-record five postponements, would scale down the plan to build a new tion at how little progress the nation has was proceeding smoothly. At the same family of manned spacecraft to replace made since journeys to the Moon ended. time, the nation’s capital was alive with the shuttle, which now has only six re- Aldrin is urging the U.S. to bypass the festivities to mark the 40th anniversary maining flights before retirement. After Moon now by immediately mounting an of the Apollo 11 landing on the Moon he became the Democratic nominee, expedition to Mars. Yet even the future on July 20, 1969. The new NASA lead- candidate Obama reversed himself, in of human travel to LEO seemed uncer- ers came onto the national stage eager part because of urging by Sen. Bill Nel- tain during a summer when the nation to talk but apparently unsure what deci- son (D-Fla.), but as president he has said grappled with economic woes. sions the White House would be asking little about space policy. “We’re working every day on this,” them to support. At a rare public meeting of Apollo said an engineer assigned to Constella- tion, the NASA program to develop a next-generation human spaceflight vehi- cle. “But when we start work on Mon- day, we don’t know whether we’ll be here next Monday.” All eyes are on Augustine. His panel was to offer different scenarios concern- ing Constellation, possible alternatives, or getting the U.S. out of human space- flight entirely. At a press conference, Augustine said that when President John F. Kennedy set the goal of putting an American on the Moon, Congress and the executive branch gave their full sup- port. More important, said Augustine, Charles F. Bolden and Lori B. Garver Kennedy’s pledge “was backed up by

8 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 WATCHlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:45 PM Page 3

budget organizations and by the budget $679.8-billion FY10 defense spending itself. It was really a national commitment.” bill if it included money for additional Augustine said that recent presidents F-22s. No president has ever vetoed a and Capitol Hill lawmakers have been defense spending measure, so the threat less willing to spend public funds to was seen as a sign of the White House’s match space goals. Polls show that the seriousness on the issue. Obama and American public now has less interest in Gates had support from both sides of the spaceflight, and even that the decline be- aisle, including from Sen. John McCain gan while the final Apollo missions were (R-Ariz.), in seeking to end F-22 produc- being flown. tion. “It’s the rarest occasion when a ma- “That puts NASA in a terrible posi- ture weapons system, with all the con- tion,” Augustine continued. “We [must] tracts and subcontracts, is terminated by have a budget that underpins [what] we the Congress of the United States,” said set out to do. Anything else, I think, is a McCain in a statement. disservice.” F-22 supporters such as Sen. Saxby Sen. John McMain Bolden told CBS News he is confi- Chambliss (R-Ga.) said the stealth, su- dent the Augustine review will not result percruise, and air-to-air maneuverability in changes that would lengthen the pro- of the aircraft would be needed in future F-35 looms larger jected five-year gap between next year’s “peer” wars with modern nation-states. Curtailing the F-22 makes the F-35 ending of shuttle operations and the de- They argued that ending assembly of the Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter more im- but of a new rocket system to replace it aircraft would have an impact on portant than ever. The administration 44,000 jobs in 44 states. has long assumed the JSF would com- A deployment of F-22s to Kadena pensate for an abridged F-22 fleet. The Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, had begun JSF “is a versatile aircraft, less than half in May and was continuing smoothly in the total cost of the F-22, and can be midsummer. Col. Kenneth S. Wilsbach, produced in quantity with all the advan- the commander at Kadena, said the tages produced by economies of scale— show of force in the neighborhood of a some 500 will be bought over the next newly militant North Korea demon- five years, more than 2,400 over the life strated that the F-22 can operate suc- of the program,” Gates said in a speech cessfully overseas. F-22 pilots fought in July. mock air-to-air combat against Kadena’s Barring some unexpected change, F-15C Eagles, Japan Air Self-Defense production of the F-22 will end with de- Force F-15Js, and U.S. Navy F/A- livery of the 187th aircraft in 2012. Bar- Norman Augustine 18E/F Super Hornets. Observers said ring a change in its purchasing plans, the the F-22s defeated all comers. Navy will receive its 493rd and last F/A- But the fighter has never been used 18E/F Super Hornet the same year. If in 2015. But some at NASA headquar- in Iraq, Afghanistan, or any other U.S. both go out of production, JSF will be- ters still wonder what marching orders conflict. And critics were armed with a come the only fighter assembled in the they will be following once Augustine’s new Pentagon report citing the plane’s U.S. Twenty-six production lines turned review is completed. poor “mission-capable rate” of 62.9%, out fighters in this country in 1955. its flying cost of $44,000 an hour versus Defense analyst and former test pilot F-22 comes to a halt $29,000 for an Eagle, its 30 hr of main- Chuck Davis says the end to the F-22 A historic juncture was reached July 21 tenance for each hour of flight, and debate is “good reason for a new analy- when a 58-40 Senate vote killed future problems with its stealth coating. sis” of the strengths and weaknesses of procurement of the F-22 Raptor super- the JSF. When Vietnam-era Defense fighter. The outcome had been anything Secretary Robert S. McNamara died July but assured, even hours before the vote, 6, some in Washington remembered and was hyped as a victory for President him for the Tactical Fighter Experimen- Obama and Defense Secretary Robert tal (TFX), a 1960s aircraft program that Gates. In a giant stretch, some Washing- had the ambitious goal of operating from ton observers said the vote was a sign the Air Force’s bases on land and the the president would succeed with other Navy’s carriers at sea. Davis says it is dramatic changes, including his show- “impossible to overlook the obvious his- case health care plan. In a close vote, the Senate decided to kill future torical comparison” between the TFX of Obama had threatened to veto the procurement of the F-22. 1963 and today’s JSF, which has the

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 9 WATCHlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:45 PM Page 4

Air Force, the F-35B short takeoff verti- cal landing, or S/TOVL, version for the Marine Corps and British forces, and the carrier-based F-35C for the Navy. The services are now forming JSF training squadrons to operate under the 33rd Fighter Wing at Eglin AFB in the Florida panhandle. But after 20 years of developmental work, no JSF is operational, and the Although some growing pains still exist, the F-35 has clearly become the fighter of the future. Navy F-35C version has not flown yet. Some analysts argue that high-mainte- nance stealth features are not needed role of performing several missions for The JSF is intended for both missions. and that they compromise JSF capabili- several branches of the armed forces. John Gresham, a military consultant, ties by requiring the aircraft to carry its Davis is not certain the JSF can fill a says JSF represents “a good job of de- armament internally. But apart from its gap left by the F-22. Reflecting the view veloping various technologies for differ- stealth coating, the JSF promises to be of many in Washington, he says the Pen- ent missions.” He says the F-35 will be the easiest plane to maintain in the Air tagon would be better advised to develop especially good for the Navy, “which Force fleet. “It will be easier to work with single-mission warplanes, such as a hy- wants for a state-of-the-art, stealth attack than any previous U.S. fighter,” said pothetical replacement for the A-10 aircraft.” British aviation analyst Jon Lake in a Thunderbolt II close-support aircraft for The JSF program uses a template as telephone interview. air-to-ground combat only, or for the F- the basis for three very different air- Proponents say production of up to 15C Eagle for air-to-air combat only. planes, the conventional F-35A for the 4,000 JSFs, including export versions, will keep the cost down and ensure a constant influx of new ideas as the plane progresses. Detractors say TFX should have taught us that multirole aircraft de- mand too many engineering compro- mises, ending with an aircraft that does not perform any mission well. JSF critics were handed new ammu- nition when the press focused on a DOD Joint Estimate Team (JET) study that showed the JSF is two years behind in its developmental schedule. The aircraft “won’t be able to move out of [its] devel- opment phase and into full production until 2016,” wrote Josh Rogin of Con- gressional Quarterly. Far from meeting a schedule of 317 test flights a year by the end of 2009, Rogin wrote, only about 30 had been completed at midyear. “The JET is not the gospel,” re- sponded Gates’ public affairs spokesman Geoff Morrell, who also called the report “new old news.” Morrell said the study is based on data from September 2008 and “is but one view, albeit an important one, of our testing program.” Too late for it to make any difference, F-22 pro- ponents such as Chambliss point out that the Pentagon panel’s pessimistic view of JSF was not publicly released un- til after the F-22 vote and might have al- tered the outcome of the program had it been known earlier. Robert F.Dorr [email protected]

10 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 CONVERS909layout.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:06 PM Page 2

EdwardJ.Weiler

What are NASA’s science priorities? want priorities on these programs. I out the astronomy decadal survey from Well, it’s not my priorities—we take want for the first time for the Moon to be 2001 and look at what they say about our priorities from the National Acad- thrown into the mix. Because we do sci- servicing Hubble. The academy actually emy of Sciences. That’s the highest ence, but if we are going to spend wrote this report in 2004, when it looked world of science. My priorities are to do money on the Moon it has to be scien- like there would be only one more servic- as much as we can do of their decadal tifically justified and more important than ing mission, the SM4 mission. Their ex- surveys, from those various NAS com- Mars, or Europa, or comets. Because act words were, “We urge NASA to do mittees. We’re trying to get JWST I’m taking my priorities from the na- one more servicing mission, and try to [James Webb Space Telescope] launched tional academy. keep the telescope going to 2010.” soon. Trying to get MSL [Mars Science So for the first time, the current lu- Luckily we have actually pulled off Laboratory] off the ground. We’re trying nar program is going to be in the mix. the last servicing mission, and we’re go- to find a way that we can afford Europa, And I’ll have to weigh that against all ing to keep it going to 2015. I am proud which is the highest priority of the previ- other areas. Because I want to know, to say we are going to do more than the ous planetary decadal survey. But that’s what good science do I do at the Moon, academy asked us to do. a real problem. and is it more important than Europa, Titan, Venus, Mercury. That’s the im- How do the telescope’s capabilities to- Why is that? portant question. day compare to those of the first years Because a lot of expectations were after its first repair in 1993? created in the planetary community in Well, some would say that they need Wow, it’s a different telescope. But the last few years for which there was no the lunar data to help design the Con- it still has only a 2.4-m mirror. That money. I’m still trying to dig out from stellation lunar spacecraft—is that not we’re stuck with. But because of ad- that problem. So right now, without help justification enough? vances in detectors and technology, it’s from some other entity, we’ll have a That’s an excellent point. Three probably [improved] by a factor of 10 or hard time doing Europa before 2010. previous AAs [associate administrators] more in terms of field of view—more ca- And even that will require some surgery asked, what do you to the current planetary program. Luck- need from us scien- ily, we have two decadal [surveys] up and tists? And all three "So for the first time, the current lunar running now—the astrophysics decadal, AAs have said the program is going to be in the mix. And I¹ll which will report out in 2010, and a same thing: Lunar have to weigh that against all other areas." planetary decadal, which will report out Reconnaissance in 2011. I’ve talked to the two chairs of Orbiter [LRO]. And those surveys and told them they have to therefore any other robotic missions to pable than it originally was. And cer- give me an executable program—don’t the Moon must be justified on science. tainly we opened up new wavelengths— give me a list of billion-dollar missions if I the advanced camera and WIFPIC [wide don’t have that much money. Will the science directorate be in- field and planetary camera] have more This is especially a problem in plan- volved in the archiving or distribution sensitivity and larger fields of view. But etary. It has a very large program expec- of the images taken by the LRO? how you measure fields of view versus tation, but we don’t have the budget for I’ve seen some of the blogs on that sensitivity is up to the author. There’s no that expectation. They’ve got things like issue! It’s not an SMD [Science Mission question that Hubble is far more capable the New Frontiers missions, like the Dis- Directorate] mission. It does become our today than in 1993, or in 1997. covery missions, they’ve got a Mars pro- mission after one year. Then we will take gram. We have the outer planets we over the mission and do all of the sci- But this is the last repair mission? have to do. They’ve got a lunar program ence we can do with the mission at that The last repair mission certainly for that was added last year. Now that’s point. So right now, it is an Exploration Hubble. great to have all these things, but we System Mission Directorate mission. don’t have a budget to support all of Any prospect for another servicing these programs. How important was the recent Hubble mission with Orion? repair, and how did it change the fu- You have to evaluate the cost of an So what can you do? ture of the telescope? Orion servicing mission. First of all, you I have talked with Steve Squyres There’s an example of us actually have to put servicing capability on the [principal investigator of the Mars Explo- doing something the academy told us to Orion. Who pays for that? If the science ration Rover mission] and said, listen, I do! I would encourage all people to pull community has to pay for that, my own

12 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 CONVERS909layout.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:06 PM Page 3

Interview by Frank Sietzen

opinion is the academy is not going to recommend we service Hubble again, Edward J.Weiler became associate staff.He joined Princeton in 1976 and was once they evaluate the cost. I mean, administrator of NASA’s Science Mission based at NASA Goddard as the director of Hubble has been fantastic for us scien- Directorate in May 2008.He had been science operations for Copernicus. named as interim head in March 2008 from tists—because we used “OPM.” his position as director of Goddard Space Weiler received his Ph.D.in astrophysics from Northwestern University in 1976. What’s that? Flight Center,where he had assumed leadership in August 2004. For his role in the Hubble science program, Other people’s money. Think about he was awarded the NASA Outstanding it: The shuttle and Hubble were unique. Earlier,beginning in 1998,he had served as Leadership Medal and the1994 Presidential They were a merging of the human and the associate administrator for NASA’s Rank Award of Meritorious Executive. robotic science programs at an early Space Science Enterprise.His tenure had Other awards include the NASA Exceptional stage. The shuttle grew up with require- numerous successes,including the Chandra, Service Medal (1991),two additional NASA ments from Hubble. Keep the bay clean, NEAR,MAP,FUSE,Spitzer,Mars Odyssey,and Outstanding Leadership Medals (2002, robotic arms. And luckily the human side Mars Exploration Rover missions. 2004),the NASA paid for all of that. They paid for astro- Distinguished Service nauts, they paid for training the astro- Previously,Weiler served as the Medal (2000), nauts, and they paid for launches. Hub- director of the Astronomical Search a second ble has been a fantastic deal for for Origins Program at NASA Presidential scientists. You really don’t want to start Headquarters.He also served as Rank Award adding up the full cost accounting of all chief scientist for the Hubble Space of Meritorious those shuttle launches, all that servicing Telescope from 1979 until 1998. Executive (2002), capability, and that entire infrastructure. Weiler joined NASA Headquarters in and the It was a great deal for us. 1978 as a staff scientist and was Presidential But we live in a new world now. We promoted to chief of the Ultraviolet/ Rank Award of have full cost accounting—we pay for Visible and Gravitational Astrophysics Distinguished launches, so all of that has to be evalu- Division in 1979. Executive ated. And the trouble is, people who are Before joining NASA,he was a member of (1999). throwing out ideas for more servicing for the Princeton University research Hubble are not taking what I just said into account. Who’s going to pay for it? And is there a business case for it? Now, Hubble should last another five, six, seven years. By then we’ll have JWST.

What is the status of the James Webb 19 years, but we really have only gotten GRO was not made to be serviced. And Space Telescope project? 10 years of data out of it. You’ll say because of that they were allowed to go We’re currently looking at a June wow—why is that? It’s because it is in into a much higher orbit—Chandra is in 2014 launch. We’re in Phase C—it sur- low Earth orbit. Its target is blocked half a highly elliptical orbit and is close to vived its transformation into a develop- of every orbit. Hubble only operates in a 100% efficient. ment program. There are a lot of techni- 50% or less target mode. So only on There are a couple of reasons why cal milestones that have to be met. But 50% of every orbit is Hubble actually JWST wasn’t made for servicing. We’ll we’re running through them. We’re over gathering data. get to costs in a minute. Because making the hump of peak funding. So it’s going You might ask if servicing was such something serviceable costs a lot of to start coming down. But the tough part a great idea. Why is it that, of the 88 money. JWST is an infrared telescope. It starts now. We have all this hardware missions we’ve got in orbit or under de- requires extremely cold temperatures— coming together. velopment, only one of them is service- 30 K, that’s 30 degrees above absolute able? It’s because that decision was zero. The Earth is a huge source of in- Why wasn’t the JWST designed to use made back in the ’80s. You ought to talk frared radiation. You cannot do JWST the on-orbit repair experience gained to Charlie Pellerin, who was my boss science in Earth orbit, but [you can] way from the Hubble servicing missions? and made a fundamental decision that out from that infrared source. That’s one For a very simple reason. People there would be no servicing after Hub- reason—a technical reason. And a very should remember that Hubble has lasted ble. Chandra was not made serviceable. important one.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 13 CONVERS909layout.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:07 PM Page 4

The second reason is efficiency. just in case, because this program has tough call. That’s not a call I will make. I JWST at L2 [the second Lagrange point] not had a history of milestones, we want would get the view of the scientific com- doubles the observing time. About 100% to put weekly milestones on it. That’s munity. I don’t like to get one person’s efficiency. You’re looking at targets weekly. We’re going to monitor them opinion—I like to hear from experts who 100% of the time. The Earth is not get- here. That’s unusual for headquarters. are there because of their expertise. And ting in the way. And the third reason, of And guess what? By about the week their answer was to keep going. course, is cost. It might look like a nice before Thanksgiving it was clear we’re idea on the viewgraphs, but when you starting to slip. JPL did their own review How do you apply those lessons to get into the fundamental engineering over the week of Thanksgiving. So we other NASA science missions? and the complications and the cost, had a decision in early December that I’ve already applied those lessons. I that’s probably why Charlie Pellerin de- we’re not going to make the launch. inherited an outer planets program that cided a long time ago not to make We’re not going to spend extra money was going to launch to Europe in 2016 spacecraft serviceable. trying to make a launch. Because the and cost $2 billion. When I walked in worst possible thing would be to keep this door, that was the plan. And I said, So where does the Hubble experience working towards launch (that launch date who on Earth thinks that an outer plan- fit in the designs of new spacecraft? would have cost literally $100 million in ets mission with RTGs can go into the There are some people who said, that fiscal year). The worst scenario worst radiation environment in the solar oh, we’re going to lose all of this capa- would be to blow another $100 million, system for $2 billion? That’s half as bility. Well, I watch TV and NASA Se- get to August or September and stop— much as Cassini. lect. I see astronauts in spacesuits servic- we’re not going to make it—then have to And sure enough, when we did in- ing all the time—putting on solar arrays, slip two years. So we made the decision dependent reviews, the answer came rewiring things. There is a lot of servic- not to spend one extra penny, and to ba- back [that] it’s more like three or four bil- ing going on beyond Hubble; we have sically back off two years. lion, if you do it right. That’s when I said EVAs on the space station all the time. I Of course, that means it’s going to we can’t do it in 2016. I will not start would think that would grow in the fu- cost $400 million-$500 million because programs on unrealistic budgets. I’m not ture, as we get more astronauts up of the launch slip. So if there’s any good God and [can’t] just say I think Europa there. And of course tools, the experi- news at all, it is that it will not cost that should cost $2 billion. If you want to do ence of making tools. Guys, we’ve got a plus another extra $100 million. And so the science that the national academy multibillion-dollar investment up there—I that’s how we got to that decision. Now says we should do, then damn it, you think there are things to do. we’re in a mode for 2011 and still have should find out what it really costs and weekly or biweekly milestones that we’re not start until you are ready. What’s the status of your Mars pro- monitoring. Theoretically we should not gram and the Mars Science Lab? have to do that, because we have plenty So the Mars problems have raised That program has been delayed. of reserves, right? your budget skepticism? While it’s not good news, it shows that My budget skepticism has always there is management at headquarters— What technical problems put you in been there. Around here my most fa- despite what some people think. Back in that position? mous quote is, when I get a pre-Phase-A the late summer [of 2008] I had been Too many technologies all having to cost, “I multiply by pi!” That basic hu- here for only three or four months. We fit together. The optimistic assumptions man desire to be optimistic has perme- got the cost overrun on Mars. They said that contractors could build things and ated all of these pre-Phase-A costs. I’m okay, we still think we can make 2009 make them work the first time at cryo- not really criticizing people, but people [launch], but genic tempera- tend to be human—and optimistic. I’m we’ll know for tures, Mars tem- not telling NASA we should do missions sure by Janu- “Hope is not a management tool.” peratures. Too for what a bunch of optimists say, when ary. I asked many things all they are is a bunch of PowerPoint the question, at what point will you coming together. What I see is a pro- viewgraphs. Anybody who believes pre- reach a time where you’ll not be able to gram that started out and had a budget Phase-A costs, I have a bridge I’d like to stay within your budget for that fiscal that was based on a lot of hope. Hope is sell them in Alaska. year? Because trying to get budgets to not a management tool. Or a budgeting change in the fiscal year you’re in cre- tool, either. What is your planned schedule for a ates havoc in budget land. The bottom line is you have a Mars sample return mission? So January was the drop-dead date. $2-billion mission, you’ve already spent Mars sample return was another ex- JPL wanted to have a major review. We 70% of that money. How do you cancel ample of lessons learned. Originally, it here in SMD said that’s a nice plan, but it? Or should it be canceled? That’s a was going to be done in 2018-2020 in

14 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 CONVERS909layout.qxd:AA Template 8/14/09 11:35 AM Page 5

"Anybody who believes pre-Phase-A costs, We’re going to have to do that together. I have a bridge I’d like to sell them in Alaska.” Maybe we ought to back off for the present, and maybe we ought to archi- the budget I walked in on. I said gee, anymore. We once had a Mars program tect a program to do that mission to- that’s interesting, and for $3 billion. that was dedicated to do a launch every gether. Not 50-50, because somebody Again, I had some independent reviews two years. has to be in charge of every mission. done. Turns out more like $6 billion-$8 We and ESA reached a joint conclu- Why not look at programs that are 60- billion; which I think is low. I recognized sion: We each want to do the same sci- 40, or 40-60, because you can take our that a confluence of a bunch of things ence. I mean, it’s not a surprise, since two inadequate budgets and put them to- happened. I was having my annual bilat- western Europe is not that different from gether, and you’d have a fairly adequate eral meeting with my ESA counterpart. America. And neither of us has the budget and a responsible program. We were meeting in Annapolis. This was budget to do all of the stuff we want, and So we set off on that course, a hand- just as the MSL overrun was hitting last neither of us has the budget to do a Mars shake basically. No MOU or statement. summer. sample return on our own. Why don’t That was in early 2009, and the culmina- That’s when I found out that MSL we get our scientists together, even if tion of where we are is that [in mid-2009] was really $6 billion-$8 billion, which you have to force them, and say maybe in Plymouth, England, for our bilateral was not a surprise. And I’m looking at it’s time to understand that our expecta- meeting, one of the major topics is, do the budgets remaining in the Mars pro- tions on both sides of the Atlantic have we have program that we can put to- gram, which were cut to help pay for gotten so big that no mission is less than gether for a 2016-2018-2020 Mars other programs. It dawned on me that a billion dollars anymore? And the holy sample return? And I don’t know where we really don’t have a Mars program grail of Mars is a sample return mission. we will be at the end of that meeting.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 15 AircraftUPlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 2:10 PM Page 2

Jetliners wait for hard times

BY ANY MARKET HEALTH INDICATOR, JETLINER with acknowledging that we are in the adjustment, with much lower levels of production is long overdue for a signifi- worst economic situation since the jet growth for the next five years or longer. cant fall. Looking at the broader econ- age began. There is no disguising the Several prominent economists and com- omy, and at airline traffic, airline profits, magnitude of the world economic down- mentators have stated the risk of this de- and the prices and availability of used turn. Until April, the International Mone- velopment at about 20%. But nobody planes, this is a market that simply does tary Fund had tentatively forecast that believes that a depression of this magni- not need new aircraft. In fact, capacity the world economy would grow at a tude is a baseline scenario. Rather, what reductions among most major airlines in- 0.5% pace this year. But that has since we are dealing with is an unusually diffi- dicate a need for accelerated retire- been revised, with expectations now of a cult cyclical downturn. ments, not a continuation of record-level 1.4% shrinkage. This means that 2009 On the positive side, it is possible the jet production. will be the first year without world eco- economy is better than it appears to be, Yet both Airbus and Boeing continue nomic growth since WW II. and that we will enjoy a faster than ex- to insist that demand justifies these high One thing that is becoming clear is pected recovery. The last two recessions rates. The likely reason for this insis- that the cause of this downturn—a devas- were relatively brief—both the 1992 and tence involves broader economic uncer- tating near-collapse of credit markets and 2001 downturns lasted a mere eight tainty. It is easy to find possible signs of a financial liquidity—was a discrete event. months each. But the difference this recovery, even as all meaningful indica- Similar shocks may lie ahead, but the cri- time goes beyond the mere severity of tors stay bad. It is also easy for manufac- sis that led the world’s economy to its the numbers. The previous two were turers to take solace in record backlogs current condition ended sometime in the classic business cycle downturns, with despite their lack of firmness. first quarter of this year. But the timing of consumer and corporate demand placed a recovery, let alone a return to eco- on hold and inventories built down. This Signs of hope (or not) nomic growth, remains quite uncertain. time, in addition to a massive inventory Any discussion of air travel demand, and It is quite possible that the world build-down (evidenced by record air therefore jetliner demand, must start faces a prolonged period of structural re- cargo shipment reductions), we also have a serious process of de-leveraging. The amount of money available for in- vestment has been severely curtailed. Government stimulus programs, in the U.S. and other countries, are nowhere near enough to compensate for the fall- off in private-sector investment cash. As a result, this downturn has al- ready become the longest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. So far (starting in early 2008 and through the first quarter of 2009), the net worth of U.S. citizens has fallen by over $12 tril- lion, almost 20%.

False starts likely One characteristic of this business cycle will likely be high volatility and numerous “false start” recoveries. Stock markets, especially in the U.S., have made con- siderable gains since the precipitous drops of late 2008 and early 2009. Also important, corporate profits have made a slight recovery. However, the compo- sition of these profits tells a different Image courtesy www.AviationExplorer.com story. The only increase in profits has

16 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 AircraftUPlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 2:10 PM Page 3

come from a recovery in the financial high price is market volatility, whose 15-20% in passenger traffic volume, sector. Some of that increase is related severity has helped to inhibit effective and well over 20% in value (the greater to the arrival of government funds, such price hedging. value drop is attributable to ticket dis- as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or Assuming a baseline scenario of a counting, another unpleasant develop- TARP. Some of the recovery is also likely longer-than-usual three-year recession ment). Typically, economy class travel is due to the sector’s recovery from a wave that began in late 2007 or early 2008, more sensitive to a financial downturn, of bankruptcies in the previous quarter. we can expect world economic growth and premium numbers hold up better. By contrast, the manufacturing sec- to remain negative or weak through the Because premium traffic is the source of tor, what some term the “Main Street” rest of 2009, and much of 2010. This most airline profit, this aberration from economy, is still under heavy pressure, means travel demand will remain ane- the norm is having a terrible impact on and manufacturing profits are still falling. mic, with no hope for this year and only the industry. Slack demand is still translating into sluggish growth in 2010. It is also noteworthy that this down- lower sales. Unemployment is still rising, turn, unlike the last one, offers no identi- pushing 10% in the U.S. There is talk of Unpleasant numbers fiable safe havens. Even the fast-growth another stimulus package, but in many Airline losses can best be described as Mideast carriers have seen some recent sectors there is still overcapacity, and it grievous. In 2008 the industry lost market softness, with unprecedented is difficult to identify any particular growth drivers in sight. Government intervention is also COMMERCIAL JETLINERS HISTORY AND FORECAST prompting growth elsewhere, with un- certain sustainability. In July, China said Units delivered Market value in‘09 $billions that its economy grew by 7.9% in the 1,400 second quarter of this year. But much of $80 this was due to a $585-billion stimulus 1,200 spending package. 1,000 Another reason to suspect that talk 60 of a recovery might be premature con- 800 cerns inventory build-downs. The Inter- national Air Transport Association (IATA) 600 40 reports that year-over-year air cargo de- mand, as measured in freight ton kilo- 400 meters, fell by over 20% starting in each 20 month from December through April. In 200 May, it declined a mere 17%. Also in 0 0 May, orders for durable goods rose 1.8% 1999 192001 1 92003 2 2005 20 2007 2009 04 2011 202013 6 2015 20 2017 from the previous month, a welcome af- firmation of slightly greater demand. Units Value However, it is important to note that af- ter an unprecedented destocking of in- ventories, there had to be at least a small $10.4 billion, and it is on course to lose traffic numbers, with a 2.8% decline last recovery after warehouses were com- about the same amount this year. Al- September. Russia, India, and China are pletely emptied. It is quite possible that though some of these losses are due to no longer beacons of hope. And this the only good news story here involves a bankruptcies and other isolated prob- time, low-cost carriers are not serving as slight easing of credit, helping to facili- lems, it is also quite clear that almost no- new traffic stimulants, as they did in tate orders for goods. body is making money in this business. 2001-2003. Another problem that will likely hob- Although passenger travel demand With a market environment like this, ble the recovery is stagflation—slack de- has not fallen as fast as the awful cargo the only way airlines have been able to mand coupled with high costs for com- numbers, it has been hit hard. For the avoid a financial catastrophe is by merci- modities and other key goods. The best past five months of this year, demand lessly cutting capacity. Through May, example of this is oil, whose price has has declined about 7.7% year over year. IATA member airline capacity had been been growing at rates completely discon- There are no signs of improvement— reduced 3.9% relative to the same period nected from world economic numbers. May demand fell 9.3% year over year. last year. These cuts have not been deep The price of oil, of course, is the most The type of traffic that has fallen off enough to avoid the terrible losses cited important variable cost for the airline in- is also quite disconcerting. Business and above, so clearly additional capacity must dustry. And compounding its relatively premium travel numbers are off by about be eliminated.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 17 AircraftUPlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 2:10 PM Page 4

Asset values and lease rates are HISTORICAL JETLINER ORDERS AND DELIVERIES falling, particularly for slightly older equipment. And, of course, orders have Number of aircraft completely collapsed. In 2005-2008, 2,800 Airbus and Boeing together booked a to- tal of 8,099 firm orders. As of halfway 2,400 through this year, Boeing had scored a single order, net of cancellations. Air- 2,000 bus’s total was 68. 1,600 In short, there is not a single industry indicator that can be viewed as positive. 1,200 If there are indeed “green shoots” in the broader economy, they have not trans- 800 lated into air travel demand. Jetliners are the ultimate lagging indicator of world 400 economic health. With capacity shrinking and the air- 0 line industry losing money, and with lim- 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2009f ited prospects of resurgent economic Deliveries Net Orders growth producing air travel demand any- All Airbus and Boeing aircraft time soon, all hopes for sustaining deliv- eries lie with getting rid of the existing fleet. Last year, over 1,100 jets were 2,400 parked jets. This includes 837 rel- those older jets. Thus, ironically, govern- parked. As of mid-June, there were over atively new and competitive models, up ment money will be used in ways that from 266 just 18 months ago. Yet the hurt some of the financial institutions industry will soon run out of obsolete jets that have needed government money for to retire. Indeed, many airlines are start- bailouts. ing to park some relatively new equip- Bizarrely, many executives and com- ment, such as 737 classics or 15-year- mentators have blamed inadequate fi- old A320s. This too is contributing to nancing for the industry’s woes, implying declining asset values and lease rates. that they would be bringing on new It is possible, however, that this pro- planes despite the awful market environ- cess of driving out used planes with new ment. Yet even with this financial distor- models will stay intact for artificial rea- tion, much of the airline industry is talk- sons. U.S. and European governments, ing of order deferrals, even when there through their export credit agencies is a financial penalty for not taking deliv- (ECAs), are increasing their support for ery of a jet. jetliner finance to an unprecedented ex- Yet deliveries continue at a record tent, providing funding when airlines, pace. Because of the 2008 Boeing jet private banks, lessors, and manufactur- strike, deliveries this year will increase ers balk. ECAs on both sides of the At- relative to 2008 even if rates stay the lantic have announced they are prepared same. While production schedules have to double the support they provided in undergone a few minor adjustments, 2008. As long as U.S. and European they primarily affect 2010 deliveries. government credit ratings stay intact, it Therefore, output this year will easily ex- is quite possible that government money ceed 900 jets for the two primes. will become the cash source for as much To a certain extent, Airbus and Boe- as half of the transactions in the busi- ing are actually being rational by main- ness. This would broadly mirror the taining high production rates. Inadequate “cash-for-clunkers” subsidies provided to supply chain capacity can suppress jet the automobile industry—except in this production in good times, and if the two case, many of the aircraft being replaced companies think the world economy will are far from clunkers. make a strong return to growth in 2010, In short, it is quite possible the gov- it makes sense to stay the course. They ernment money will contribute to indus- do not want suppliers to cut capacity. try overcapacity and the premature ob- Nonetheless, at the Paris Air Show solescence of existing equipment. This in July, many suppliers were quite wary, will hurt the leasing companies that own and several implied that they were ex-

18 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 AircraftUPlayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 2:10 PM Page 5

pecting significant production cuts start- But in practical terms, this means lit- will be the peak of the market. Some- ing in 2010. They too are quite rational. tle. The backlog, like the market, tends time later this year, the manufacturers If they see little hope of that fast recov- to behave as a surprisingly cohesive en- will announce production rate drops in ery, then there is much to be lost from tity. At the last market peak (January 2010. Our forecast calls for narrowbody having inventory, workforce, and a plant 2001) there were 3,200 jets on backlog; production rates to fall by about 30%, that is suddenly idle. at the bottom of the last market trough with a trough year in 2012. The twin (January 2003) there were 2,700. That aisle products, however, will likely stay No help from the backlog modest reduction was more than ac- intact, because international traffic will One certainty is that sustaining produc- counted for by deliveries. Only 80 can- probably recover faster than domestic tion rates depends on an economic re- cellations were recorded in 2002/2003, markets. Twin aisle numbers will also be covery and greater travel demand, and so the core backlog remained intact. boosted by the technological stimulant of has no relation to the much-touted back- Still, production rates fell by 30%. new product developments, particularly log of unfilled orders. The two big primes Airlines deferred en masse, and the back- Boeing’s 787 and Airbus’s A350 XWB. alone have over 7,000 jets—seven years log did nothing to protect the industry Of course, paying for these new jets, of production at current rates—on firm from the recession’s impact. It is a sim- and the associated engines and other order. Airbus CEO Tom Enders said at ple and timeless equation: When airlines components, is also a drain on Airbus, the Paris Air Show that even if 1,000 jet make money, they order planes. If air- Boeing, and supplier resources. The orders were canceled, Airbus would still lines keep making money, they take de- need to keep revenue high to fund these have years of production at current livery of those planes. products is arguably the biggest single rates. Both manufacturers have spoken Assuming, therefore, that this back- factor that could keep jetliner production of overbooked backlogs, at least in the log has no bearing on keeping produc- rates at higher levels than market de- near term, implying that they could eas- tion rates up in an economic downturn, mand justifies. Richard Aboulafia ily compensate for demand softness and also assuming that there is no recov- Teal Group among some customers. ery imminent, it is a safe bet that 2009 [email protected]

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 19 EYElayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:10 PM Page 2

JSFsensors:Dominantanddelayed

INTHEDETECTIONANDPRECISIONSTRIKE much less optimistic ramp-up of JSF missile warning in the lower hemisphere. wars of today and likely tomorrow, West- production rates than the DOD and EOTS shares more than 50% identical ern European and U.S. air forces no Lockheed Martin are planning. But this hardware with Lockheed Martin’s Sniper longer rely on large numbers of plat- article’s title says “dominant and de- pod (the second most valuable EO pro- forms or weight of bombs. Few reason- layed,” not “dominant or delayed,” be- gram in our forecast); most of the re- able people consider peer competitor cause although I believe production will mainder involve different software and dogfights or large-scale fighter-to-fighter be delayed, funding will not be, and JSF repackaged Sniper submodules to be shoot-outs a possibility (although all air sensors will dominate the fighter elec- carried in the JSF nose. forces still train for them). tronics market for decades to come. In June 2007, EOTS made its first Instead, the tooth-to-tail ratio has test flight, aboard a specially configured shrunk: Dozens of support aircraft—air- Electrooptics Sabreliner aircraft. Testing continued borne early warning (AWACS/E-2C), The JSF EO suite is a fully integrated through 2007, followed by Phase II SIGINT (RC-135/EP-3), electronic war- system comprising a distributed aperture aboard the Cooperative Avionics Test fare (EA-6B), tankers—precede and fol- missile warning/situational awareness/ Bed (CATB) aircraft in 2008, and Phase low just a few precision bomb carriers (F- IRST (infrared search and track) suite— III aboard a JSF. Ten EOTS systems 15, F-16, F/A-18). The next generation Northrop Grumman’s distributed aper- were being built for SDD (system devel- is already in development or production ture system (DAS)—and a targeting FLIR opment and demonstration). —SIGINT (ACS/EP-X), AEW (MESA/E- (forward-looking infrared)—Lockheed In January Lockheed Martin com- 2D), EW (EA-18G), tankers—but only Martin’s electrooptical targeting system pleted the first JSF with a complete mis- Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike (EOTS). My forecast of the total fighter sion system, including DAS/EOTS, the Fighter is planned as nearly everyone’s aircraft EO market shows how dominant AN/APG-81 radar, and some EW com- next-generation “tooth” aircraft. Most of this program will be when in full-rate ponents. It carries Block 0.5 mission sys- the support aircraft procurements will be production, worth more than $1 billion tems software, which incorporates more for a few dozen aircraft each, but JSF is annually by later next decade. than half of the combat-ready Block 3 expected to sell in the thousands. software (the final block in SDD). Why JSF? It is the world’s only true next-generation fighter, with a fully inte- grated sensor suite and stealth. The Euro- fighter/Rafale/Gripen/F-22 programs were all begun during the 1980s. The JSF’s integrated radar/electrooptical/ EW sensor suite will allow undreamed of coordination of multispectral RF/EO de- tection and targeting, sharing antennas and C4I. Stealth will provide a huge ad- EW suite testing is taking place aboard the vantage for strike missions; for the first CATBird test aircraft. time, the fewer bomb-carriers may not need as many support aircraft. Northrop Grum- Although not faster or better in tradi- man’s DAS has six tional fighter terms, the JSF’s incredibly sensors providingin sophisticated integrated electronics and all-around coverage sensors will guarantee lifetime mission for full situational awareness. superiority and constant upgrades—per- Supplementing DAS is EOTS, with a haps for 50 years or more. single aperture between the radome and First we will consider the JSF’s three front wheel well. The sensor aperture primary sensors, for electrooptics, radar, window blends into the airframe, allow- and electronic warfare, followed by a dis- ing full-time operation. cussion of why many believe the JSF Used for ground surveillance and tar- The JSF EOTS, here on a mockup of the F-35, story as advertised is all a bit too good to geting, EOTS also extends the range of has a single aperture between the radome and be true. My forecasts are based on a the DAS for situational awareness and front wheel well.

20 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 EYElayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:10 PM Page 3

Avionics/radar/electronic warfare Northrop Grumman’s MIRFS (multifunc- tion integrated RF system) is the inte- grated avionics system being developed for the JSF. The most important and ex- pensive sensor in MIRFS is the AN/ APG-81 MFA (multifunction nose array), which includes an active electronically scanned array (AESA) that will function as the antenna for the JSF radar, as well as for communications and electronic support measures (ESM) systems. The MFA will be more than just a radar. Its AESA will generate multiple se- quential beams to provide the pilot with near-simultaneous air-to-ground and air- to-air radar modes, high-gain ESM, and wideband data links. Air-to-ground modes will include synthetic aperture The AN/APG-81 JSF radar is mounted on Northrop Grumman’s BAC 1-11 testbed aircraft, radar (SAR) imaging, ground moving tar- with radome removed, prior to successful first flight test. get indication, and ground mapping. The X-band MFA will also interact with in-band ESM on emitters in the forward- F-22 and F-35 EW systems. The site will other frequency band antennas in aper- quadrant area covered by the AESA an- support more than 1,400 of the 3,500 tures around the aircraft. The MFA is tenna. Jamming may be transmitted BAE employees who work in New predicted to save at least 30% in cost through the AESA. Hampshire, and about 60 suppliers from and 50% in weight compared with using A single aperture was considered for that state will provide products and serv- individual antennas. Designed from the most electronic operations on the JSF, ices to support the programs. start for air-to-ground missions, and but instead the aircraft will have a system In June 2008, then-Brig. Gen. given its lesser power, the APG-81 will similar to the F-22’s 156 antenna ele- Charles Davis, USAF F-35 executive have a shorter range but greater capabil- ments in four low-observable apertures. program officer, discussed possibilities ities than the F-22’s AN/APG-77. The EW suite will be highly digitized, em- for the JSF as an EW jamming aircraft, Over the next 10 years, the MIRFS/ phasizing field programmable gate ar- possibly even as an EA-35. It has long MFA will earn almost half of all fighter rays and an integrated core processor. been considered that the JSF’s radar radar funding available to U.S. firms. By The earlier F-22 system is built around with its AESA antenna would be capable the middle of the next decade, it will an application-specific integrated circuit of jamming, but now the addition of a dominate fighter radars to the same de- design, and has more analog systems. jamming pod similar to those on the gree as the EO suite, with nearly $1.5 The JSF EW system will equal the capa- Navy’s EA-6B Prowler and EA-18G billion a year in procurement funding bilities of the F-22’s, but at half the cost Growler is under consideration, largely alone, comprising well over half the total and weight. because of the Air Force’s failure to fighter radar market. In December 2007, BAE Systems complete an electronic countermeasures The JSF EW suite is being designed opened a new 30,000-ft2 facility in aircraft development program. by BAE Systems and Northrop Grum- South Nashua, N.H., for production of The service currently “borrows” man. It will integrate with the stealthy Prowlers to see its aircraft through com- JSF design and concentrate on passive bat zones. Perhaps still prepared to rely avoidance rather than jamming (al- The F-22 entered full-rate production several on the Navy, Davis stated, “the Next though now it will also be able to jam). years after reaching the testing stage the F-35 Generation Jamming pod [a Navy pro- Sensors will be low observable, including is in now. Photo by Scott Wolfe. gram] has often been mentioned as a a passive ESM/MWS (electronic support candidate system for the [USAF] F-35.” measures/missile warning system) devel- In February Lockheed Martin an- oped by Northrop Grumman (as Litton nounced that Top Secret tests of the JSF Amecom, which Northrop Grumman EW suite would take place aboard the purchased), within-wing-mounted anten- CATBird test aircraft beginning in March nas, and many systems based on BAE 2009 (all people aboard the CATBird re- Systems’ stealthy AN/ALR-94 and F-22 quiring top-secret clearance). Ground EW suite. The JSF’s radar will provide tests are already under way.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 21 EYElayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:10 PM Page 4

The EW contract includes options up per year planned for full-rate production Joint Strike Fighter: Accelerating Procure- to $7 billion. The aircraft’s EW will com- is still just a fraction of the U.S. defense ment before Completing Development In- prise an important share of the overall budget (albeit the largest fraction ever al- creases the Government’s Financial Risk. fighter and airborne EW market, but will lotted to one program), and could still be Without being excessively antagonistic, be less dominant than EO and radar, as increased if unit costs do not drop as the GAO highly doubts DOD plans will most EW will still be conducted by sup- quickly as hoped. Perhaps more impor- come off on schedule. port aircraft rather than the shooter JSF. tant is the question of whether Lockheed Let’s look at it another way. Let’s as- Martin can tool up to 200 aircraft a year sume the many test aircraft planned find Cost increase = production decrease? in just six years, even though the JSF is no major flaws that require redesign, nor The U.S. budget for the first LRIP (low- still not complete today and has barely do all those flying desks. Let’s assume rate initial production) batch of F-35s begun flight tests. the JSF is just perfect as is. The sched- provides more than $200 million per In September 2008, Tom Burbage ule has already slipped 30 months (initial copy ($1.7 billion for eight aircraft in (Lockheed Martin F-35 general man- operational test and evaluation delayed FY09). Early full-rate production lots will ager) and Maj. Gen. Charles Davis 12 months), with serious engine, flight cost well over $100 million per aircraft. (USAF F-35 PEO) proudly proclaimed control, electrical, and avionics prob- Lockheed Martin and the U.S. hope unit that 9 million software lines of code were lems; there are three different JSF ver- costs in later production will eventually complete. Unfortunately, the JSF will sions; and fewer than 100 sorties of a drop to $60 million, but this looks in- eventually need 19 million. To provide a 5,000-mission flight test program had creasingly unlikely, even if production little historical comparison, the F-22 had been flown by March of this year. numbers stay extremely high (planned to only 4 million. But let’s also assume that for the first reach an amazing 215-230 aircraft per In 1997 the first F-22 EMD aircraft time in modern history, all the problems year as soon as 2015, only six years flew. The F-22 finally entered full-rate have already been fixed and that flying down the road from eight aircraft). production almost 10 years later despite the 19 planned developmental test air- Planned complete-program unit costs relatively massive funding, which in- craft and 20 planned production-config- were already up 38-54% (depending on creased planned program unit cost from ured operational test aircraft will be a how you run the numbers) from 2001 to $184 million in 2001 to $355 million by picnic. Of course, one wonders why 2008, and who honestly expects there 2008. It is currently flying off the produc- there are over 40 planned test aircraft will be no further increases in the next tion line at a rate of about 20 per year— (not built yet) if Lockheed does not antic- seven years? Or 14? The JSF is an ex- at a lesser unit cost today than planned ipate a few problems, but let’s ignore tremely sophisticated aircraft, built with for early JSF production. This is a huge that. The FY09 budget planned funding cutting-edge technology and materials. problem approaching, no matter how for 118 aircraft in FY12, and we do not For example, Lockheed Martin was much money the Air Force throws at want to build 118 aircraft with any prob- working with Australia in June to extrude JSF. The first JSF SDD aircraft flew in lems. We have to get moving. So, let’s titanium powder into metal wire, to even- December 2006, and if this much more assume there simply are no problems in tually reduce the amount of titanium lost complex aircraft than the F-22 has even the next three years that would result in in machining down to parts such as wing a fraction of the unforeseen problems the a delay in this incredibly optimistic ramp- frames. But no matter how much tita- F-22 had, there will be further delays. up to 118 aircraft. nium you save, it is still titanium and will Remarkably, DOD plans show 100% There is still a problem. A major still be more expensive than fourth-gen- of JSF flight testing will not be complete one. The JSF is the most globalized air- eration fighter materials. By comparison, until 2014, when 506 copies may al- craft ever built, with hundreds of suppli- the F-16 is like a Corvette Stingray, still a ready have been procured (if not actually ers in many countries. How will every pretty hot ride but based on 1970s tech- produced). How is this possible? The one of these suppliers ramp up at the ex- nology and material—and costs. The JSF DOD’s revised test plan relies on “state- treme rate of eight aircraft today (FY09), spares nothing, and even the Air Force of-the-art simulation labs,” a flying test 32 in FY10, 47 in FY11, 118 in FY12, admits much of the cost increase already bed, and “desk studies” to verify nearly and 230 in FY15? Will none of them ex- has been due to an extensive use of new 83% of JSF capabilities. Only 17% are perience internal or external problems materials. to be verified through flight testing. that slow a greater than 100% per year But let’s agree that the funding issue “Desk studies?” growth rate (150% for FY12)? Will none is one that can be solved with, well, These issues and many others are of them question building the infrastruc- more funding. The $10 billion or more addressed in the GAO’s March report, ture ahead of time to support this in-

PRODUCTION FORECAST (JSF Electronic Suite) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total USAF + Intl. (F-35A) —8 812 24 40 50 56 68 86 352 USMC + Intl. (F-35B) 166818 24 36 42 44 42 227 USN (F-35C) 5 ————— 2 2 4 2 15 Total 6 14 14 20 42 64 88 100 116 130 594

22 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 EYElayout909.qxd:AA Template 8/21/09 12:22 PM Page 5

RDT&E+PROCUREMENT AVAILABLE TO THE U.S. budget numbers may not change much as production ramp-up is delayed, but FY09 $ millions EO, radar, and EW values will decrease. $2,000 If you are involved with avionics testing, for at least the next five years expect to earn more than those who are subcon- 1,500 tracting hardware or components that go into production systems. Then again, electronics suppliers will 1,000 still benefit from the cost increases. As the JSF spending spree continues, and costs are just not coming down, I am re- vising my unit cost estimates for all JSF 500 systems. Until some semblance of com- petition or attention to cost is enforced (which may not be possible), I see JSF 0 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 system prices at least 50% higher (more in the first few years) than comparable IFTSaircraftLANTIRNaircraftLiteningaircraftATFLIRaircraftIRSTaircraftSniper+aircraftJSF EO systems on “competitive” aircraft. Why should a radar warning receiver on a CAGR: 3.4% (FY09-14),4.8% (FY09-18).NOTE: Does not include F-22 EO funding. $150 million-$250 million JSF—highly integrated and nearly impossible to “swap out”—cost the same as a compet- credible growth, without impossible bers go down. This has happened on just itively marketed one bought for an F-16? guarantees from Lockheed Martin, fol- about every major program funded in the It won’t, so those lower unit production lowing the two previous disastrously de- past two decades. The only difference is, numbers will still earn more money for layed and reduced stealth programs (B-2 before the soon-to-be-realized inexcus- electronics producers than if the JSF and F-22)? Will none of them become able irresponsibility of “concurrence” of were really a $40-million aircraft as orig- even a minor bottleneck that prevents a testing and production, these other air- inally envisioned. JSF increasingly looks 100% per year growth rate off the JSF craft programs became seriously delayed to be an aircraft without comparison, at production line? RDT&E programs. JSF may be the first least regarding what the U.S. is willing to Maj. Gen. Davis stated in November seriously delayed procurement program, spend on it, and pre-testing production 2008, “What worries me is…how to get but only because it is really still in devel- will also guarantee the U.S. has a park- the supply chain around the world up opment and testing. What today is being ing lot full of JSFs in need of immediate and running, and how to get to rate at advertised as a brilliant way to reduce (and expensive) upgrade funding. the right price.” International second- costs by upping production early will source suppliers are being brought on, soon be seen as just a clever way to pre- vvv but there are already initial problems vent Congress from cutting production— Finally, my production forecasts still as- with second-sourced parts, according to because it has already occurred! sume no major or even moderate prob- Davis. He stated, however, that these These delays may not seriously im- lems with either funding or testing. I have problems are normal for a development pact Lockheed Martin as aircraft prime— simply included minor schedule delays. program. And indeed they are, just as Lockheed will simply earn more per JSF This is already extremely optimistic in my continued delays are normal (although aircraft and more for extended testing, view. If a major problem crops up (as al- JSF is no longer technically a develop- just as it did for F-22 and is already doing most always happens for today’s increas- ment program, as production has al- for JSF. As long as the U.S. never at- ingly sophisticated new programs), or ready been funded). tacks a near-peer (remember that JSF is funding is reduced, expect a longer delay Problems and delays are what will primarily intended as a ground attack air- before production exceeds 10 or 20 test likely happen, and this is what we fore- craft), we still do not need those aircraft aircraft per year. Let me repeat that I sus- cast. Sustained production rate growth just yet, and industry will continue to pect the production numbers in my fore- of 100-150% per year before testing is make a similar amount of money. cast will fall even lower, though overall even complete will simply not happen. However, this likely future would def- funding may remain at budgeted levels, initely cut the numbers and revenue for and production numbers on paper may Electronics system production electronics systems suppliers. Since my take some time to align with reality. But I On the other hand, since budget funding forecasts are for electronics systems, I will not speculate an even lower ramp-up is allocated well before aircraft reach the am breaking with government aircraft rate until more problems do occur. production line, if delays occur and unit schedules and reducing expected elec- David L.Rockwell costs stay up, the most likely result will be tronics systems production rates for my Teal Group that production is stretched out and num- production forecasts. Aircraft top-line [email protected]

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 23 LEWISlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:56 PM Page 2

The combination of alternative fuels, even more efficient engines, and airframe changes both minor and dramatic should result in greater fuel efficiency, a plus for both the military and the world it is sworn to protect.

by Mark J.Lewis Willis Young Professor of A KC-135R refuels an F-22 with a new synthetic fuel. The test was done as part of the secretary of Aerospace Engineering, the Air Force’s initiative to certify the entire fleet on synthetic fuel, an effort to lessen dependence on foreign oil. (Photo by Master Sgt. Rick Sforza.) University of Maryland

24 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 Copyright© 2009 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. LEWISlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:56 PM Page 3

n May 2008, the USAF flew its 1 mil- have a greater impact than other sources of lionth sortie since September 11, 2001, combustion byproducts. Because aircraft de- just one of approximately 300 military liver greenhouse gases directly into the atmo- flights per day in Iraq, Afghanistan, and sphere where they do the most harm, emis- the surrounding areas. With so many sions such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide flights, it is no surprise that the Air Force compounds may have a relatively greater en- consumes more than 2.5 billion gallons of fuel vironmental impact than those from ground- each year. In 2008, that translated directly based fossil fuels. into expenditures of nearly $7 billion, slightly Thus, even though aviation accounts for Imore than half the total fuel bill of the entire just 8% of the total use of refined oil, and only U.S. government. 3% of greenhouse gas emissions, the overall To put that into perspective, $7 billion climate effect from aviation greenhouse gases represents about half of Canada’s entire mili- is about 13% of the total from fossil fuels. The tary expenditure; it is roughly three times race is on to burn less fuel, or to use fuels that what the USAF spent internally on science have a smaller environmental impact. and technology work in the Air Force Re- search Laboratory (AFRL); and it is equivalent ENGINEERING TO CONSUME LESS to the flyaway cost of 51 new F-22 fighters. In 2004, the Air Force Scientific Advisory And every unexpected increase in the cost of Board, a group of about 50 scientists and en- a barrel of oil can translate directly into signifi- gineers who advise the secretary of the Air cant unplanned fuel costs; a $10/barrel rise in Force and the chief of staff, initiated a six- oil prices means a $700 million cost increase month study on increasing fuel efficiency for On December 17, a C-17 Globemaster over the entire Air Force fleet. military aviation. That analysis divided poten- III flew over New York City after The direct cost of fuel is not the only is- tial technology solutions into four categories: completing the first transcontinental flight on synthetic fuel. sue; there is tremendous extra cost involved in fuels, engines, airframes, and behavior. delivering that fuel to the warfighter. It has Alternate fuels with higher energy con- been calculated that the average cost of fuel tent than conventional hydrocarbons translate delivered to a convoy is $13/gal. Put that fuel directly into less fuel consumption. Such fuels in a tanker and pump it into a fighter in flight, might include everything from hydrogen and the so-called “fully burdened” cost sky- (clean burning but hard to handle) to various rockets to an average of over $40/gal (some synthetic propellants produced from coal, nat- estimates place it as high as $200/gal, de- ural gas, or biomass. Synthetics have the ad- pending on the mission). As a result, in- ditional advantage of reducing dependence on creased aviation fuel efficiency has become an foreign sources. It remains to be seen whether S&T priority for the military. these fuels can be produced with processes Aviation fuel consumption is not just an that, as a whole, do less environmental dam- economic concern—there are significant envi- age than their fossil-derived counterparts. ronmental costs. Aircraft release about 600 Improvements in propulsion systems— million tons of CO2 each year, but those gases engines that can consume less fuel for a given

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 25 LEWISlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/14/09 12:48 PM Page 4

range—involve everything from making exist- beat existing jet fuels, not only for cost but ing engines more energy efficient through also for both energy content and handling servicing and cleaning to entirely new systems characteristics. Burning 1 kg of jet fuel re- that maximize overall cycle efficiency. leases over 40 million joules, enough energy The development of new aerodynamic to power 185 standard light bulbs for an hour. configurations and aircraft structures that can That is about 90 times more energy per kilo- improve overall performance also offers great gram than the best available batteries. And a promise. Lighter weight structures and higher jet fuel such as JP-8 remains a liquid down to lift shapes could yield dramatic increases in -47 C and has relatively high density, so it can range for a given amount of fuel or reduce be stored in a relatively compact volume. fuel requirements for a given range. In contrast, a fuel like hydrogen can be Of course, the fourth option for using less very environmentally friendly—its combustion fuel is, fly less. This can include expanded use product is water (though commercial hydro- of simulation for training, or eliminating some gen is itself mostly derived from fossil fuels), manned aircraft missions in favor of smaller, and it has three times the energy per kilogram more efficient UAVs. Migrating training from of jet fuel. But it must be stored as a cold liq- flight to simulator is happening across the uid, at temperatures below -253 C, and it board in the DOD and has already taken hold leaks out of tanks very easily. Hydrogen’s den- in the civil sector. Modifying pilot behavior, in- sity is also less than one tenth that of jet fuel, cluding paying closer attention to steps that so a hydrogen-powered aircraft would require can reduce fuel consumption, may also help. large fuel tanks, and thus a large structure. In addition, some atmospheric scientists point BREWING NEW FUEL out that water vapor is the most effective The broad interest in alternative aviation fuels greenhouse gas, so releasing seemingly harm- was expressed in a letter from representatives less water exhaust at airliner altitudes could of the U.S. aviation industry, including the Air have noticeable climate impact. Transport Association, the Aerospace Indus- The first alternate fuels to be adopted on tries Association, and synthetic fuel organiza- a large scale will likely be those that will work tions, to the Obama administration. Writing in in existing aircraft. On February 24, 2008, a January 2009, they called for “an entirely Virgin Atlantic Boeing 747 flew from London new fuel dynamic,” and promised the new to Amsterdam; one of its four engines was president that aviation will be an “enthusiastic powered by a fuel blend that included a syn- purchaser of environmentally friendly alterna- thetic manufactured from oils derived from co- tive fuels when they become available.” conuts and seeds of babassu palm trees. A key These groups have been involved with the to this flight was that no modifications to the FAA to form the Commercial Aviation Alter- airliner or its General Electric engines were re- native Fuels Initiative, which seeks to enhance quired, though the biofuel accounted for less energy security and environmental sustainabil- than 10% of the total propellant load. ity for aviation through alternative fuels. Heralded as a breakthrough by Virgin More than 100 people at Edwards Not all alternate fuels are environmentally president Sir Richard Branson, the overall en- AFB attend a ceremony with friendly, and even the friendly fuels may not vironmental benefit of such biofuels was im- Secretary of the Air Force Michael W. Wynne certifying F-T synthetic work well with existing aircraft. It is hard to mediately the subject of debate. As some en- fuel blends for use in the B-52H. vironmentalists noted, dedicating the amount of arable land required to grow enough co- conut and babassu would cause its own envi- ronmental hazards. However, the fact that bio-derived fuels could be burned in an un- modified gas turbine engine suggests that other renewable sources of hydrocarbons might offer environmental benefits. But it is one thing to run an engine for a single flight on a new fuel; operating that engine for years with no damage may be a harder challenge. The Air Force had entered the synthetic fuel arena eight months earlier. Maj. Gen. Cur- tis Bedke, then-commander of the USAF Flight Test Center at Edwards AFB, piloted a B-52 that burned a coal-derived synthetic fuel

26 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 LEWISlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:56 PM Page 5

blend in two of its eight engines over the skies tails of the process. Proponents argue that if of California. This was the first step in a sys- excess carbon is sequestered and returned to tematic plan to certify the entire USAF fleet on the ground, the end result is a fuel environ- synthetics, championed by then-Air Force Sec- mentally superior to oil-derived hydrocarbons. retary Michael Wynne. The long-term goal be- In fact, the synthetic fuels produced by FT gan with a plan to derive 50% of the Air have many environmental benefits, including Force’s domestic fuel from sources other than minimal sulfur content, few aromatics, and a traditional crude oil by 2016. The effort is higher combustion temperature—thus more looking not only at the performance of syn- thermal efficiency and less sooty exhaust. thetic fuels, but their effect on emissions and However, the jury is still out as to whether that the long-term health of the engines. higher overall efficiency, and resulting smaller This idea of powering the Air Force on fuel consumption, is counteracted by the synthetics was certainly not new; a study by slightly higher production of ozone-destroying the RAND Corporation in 1976 concluded nitrogen compounds associated with higher that “uncertainties in the future availability and combustion temperatures. economics of crude-oil-based jet fuels pose a Since FT products lack some of the com- particular challenge to the Air Force….[To] plex molecules that protect engine seals, there meet this challenge the Air Force will be is also still debate as to how much fossil-de- obliged to undertake measures to conserve jet rived fuel, if any, should be mixed in with the fuel in the short term and to develop a future synthetic for long-term engine health, or capability for using jet fuels derived from alter- whether so-called aromatics can be added di- natives to crude oil.” rectly in the manufacturing process. Two years later in another RAND report, Extensive research into synthetics contin- Future Sources of Military Jet Fuels, William ues at the AFRL, now commanded by the Stanley recommended that the DOD begin a same Maj. Gen. Bedke. Others are also work- research program into alternate hydrocarbon ing in this area in ac- fuels. Thirty years later, the Air Force’s first ademia and industry, “[Flight certifications with F-T] allowed the USAF to candidate fuel was a hydrocarbon blend of with support from develop a thorough, structured set of procedures to conventional JP-8 jet fuel with a synthetic fuel government agencies validate and test the efficacy of any alternative fuel— first produced in Germany in the 1920s. such as NASA, FAA, The Fischer-Tropsch (FT) process was DOE, and DARPA. not just Fischer-Tropsch—in Air Force systems.” used by Germany and Japan during WW II to The latter’s efforts Don Erbschloe, Air Mobility Command chief scientist produce fuel from coal. FT synthesis uses a are specifically aimed catalyst to convert hydrogen and carbon at a process that efficiently uses organic living monoxide into heavier hydrocarbons more sources to produce a surrogate for JP-8 jet suitable for combustion in conventional en- fuel, incorporating both its combustion and gines. The original synthesis gas can be de- physical properties, including melting and rived from coal, natural gas, or other carbon freezing points. feedstock such as biomass. In choosing the FT The Air Force is now looking beyond F-T product, Air Force planners were careful to fuels, to include biofuels, with a keen focus on keep the door open for other alternatives. environmental impact. As the Air Mobility The Air Force began flight qualification of Command Chief Scientist Don Erbschloe ex- its fleet with a B-52, and was steadily expand- plains, “The synthetic blend certification was ing the range of aircraft certified to use FT an important first step, but ultimately as con- fuels to include transports, bombers, and fight- sumers of jet fuel, the USAF is agnostic to the ers. In doing so, the service was emulating the feedstock. We need something that looks like, experience of South Africa’s Sasol, which has performs like, and is priced competitively with been manufacturing an FT blend since 1999 JP-8.” The Air Force Certification Office is and has made it available to airlines refueling planning to test both a fighter and a C-17 at the Tambo Airport in Johannesburg for transport with a biofuel sometime in 2010. over a decade. Sasol received approval to use On the commercial side, the FAA is lead- a 100% synthetic in the spring of 2008. ing the Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels FT synthesis, especially with coal feed- Initiative (CAAFI), which was established “to stock, has been criticized as being environ- enhance energy security and environmental mentally unfriendly, with a total CO2 output sustainability for aviation” through the use of possibly twice that of the conventional fuels it alternative fuels. CAAFI is a forum for part- replaces. That is only partly true, and depends ners to interact, share data, and champion re- not only on the feedstock but also on the de- search on alternative fuels.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 27 LEWISlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:56 PM Page 6

INCREASING ENGINE EFFICIENCY eral Electric and Rolls-Royce Liberty Works Just as the producers of greener aviation fuels are working under ADVENT, each with its will have a difficult time surpassing, or even own approaches to variable cycles. matching, the performance of existing fossil A key technique involves using adaptabil- fuels, so too will the designers of new engines ity to change the bypass ratio, varying the have a hard time beating existing propulsion amount of air passing around the core engine. technology. A modern gas tur- Especially promising is an auxiliary fan bypass “Without a doubt this is the high point bine engine is among the most flowpath, with a pressure ratio that can be of my 29-year Air Force career. ADVENT efficient machines ever built, con- controlled independently of the core engine. has energized the entire Air Force and verting nearly 60% of the avail- Coupled with concepts for varying the core contractor propulsion community to able fuel energy to useful work, flow, such ADVENT concepts could result in more than twice the efficiency of 30% fuel savings on a typical subsonic cruise work together with the weapon system a typical automobile engine. The mission and even greater savings for super- folks to examine many innovative individual components of a gas sonic platforms. applications for the future.” turbine engine have efficiencies More conventional concepts are also be- Jeffrey Stricker, chief engineer,Turbine Div. that are pushing the theoretical ing pursued. For instance, those same compa- AFRL Propulsion Directorate limits for such devices. nies are also involved with AFRL’s highly effi- How can we make some- cient embedded turbine engine effort. HEETE thing that efficient even better? Several engine is aiming to produce compressors with dra- programs aim to do just that. matically higher compression ratios than the One approach is variability—building an current state-of-the-art, with correspondingly engine that has a wider range of efficient op- higher engine efficiencies. Ultimately, HEETE erating modes because its flowpath can be technology could be combined with ADVENT varied. A modern gas turbine engine is typi- to produce even greener engines. cally most efficient in a very narrow range of GE, working with Snecma, has also res- flight conditions; outside that range, efficiency urrected “unducted fan” concepts—essentially or performance suffers. For instance, an en- high-speed turboprops—building on engine gine designed for efficient subsonic cruise will programs from the late 1980s. Turbofans be- not be a particularly good supersonic thruster. come more efficient as their bypass ratio is in- Conversely, one designed to deliver very high creased, but then as fan diameter grows, so thrust for bursts of supersonic speed or short do the weight and drag of the outer nacelle. takeoff will generally not be efficient for Now referred to as open rotor engines, these cruise. A variable engine might be good at unducted engines would solve this problem by both by changing the way it operates. This is eliminating the outer nacelle entirely. Fuel sav- analogous to adding a transmission to an auto ings of up to 30% may be possible, though powertrain, enabling an engine with a narrow the 1980s versions of these engines had sig- operating range that can supply high torque nificant noise problems that were never com- at low speeds but also drive the wheels at high pletely resolved before dropping fuel prices speed when torque is not needed. ended their development. The ADVENT (adaptive versatile engine Pratt & Whitney, under its PurePower ef- technology) program, funded by the AFRL fort, is developing a geared turbofan engine in Propulsion Directorate, is looking at technolo- which each stage can operate at its own opti- gies that will explore various approaches to mum speed. A conventional gas turbine en- variability. Originally begun in 2006 as a pro- gine tends to compromise performance by gram to improve engine performance, it was running each stage on a spool at the same soon realized that ADVENT held the promise speed, but it would be more desirable to run of increased fuel efficiency as well. Both Gen- the forward fan stages at lower speeds and the high-pressure stages at higher ones. A lower PurePower is an effort to develop speed fan could also be larger, and thus have a a geared turbofan engine in which each stage can operate larger bypass ratio compared to a gearless at its own optimum speed. counterpart. It would also be quieter. In-flight tests on a Boeing 747 and Airbus 340 have demonstrated the concept, which P&W claims could save 12% in fuel consump- tion. Critics claim the addition of gears adds weight and mechanical complexity. But run- ning stages at optimum speeds also means weight could be saved because fewer stages

28 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 LEWISlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:57 PM Page 7

may be needed, and thus far the engines have that replacing key aluminum parts proven very reliable in over 120 flight hours. on existing aircraft with hybrid composites would offer significant DESIGNING ADVANCED AIRFRAMES weight savings, which could trans- Advanced airframes are also being studied for late directly into increased range their ability to improve overall efficiency. In or reduced fuel consumption. One cruise, an aircraft’s range is proportional to immediate candidate for hybrid the ratio of lift and drag forces. A Boeing 747 composites is the C-130 cargo Although winglets are being has a lift/drag ratio of about 18; a B-52 ratio fleet. An important added benefit is that the considered for future aircraft, retrofitting would not be is over 21. Though some gliders can reach reduction in required maintenance inspections cost-effective. values of up to 70, commercial jets have seen alone would easily pay for the replacement very little increase in lift-over-drag perform- materials over the life of the fleet. ance since the start of the jet age, an average Ultimately, exotic aerodynamic shapes of 15% since the introduction of the 707. may offer the best improvements in aircraft Changes to existing aircraft can improve efficiency. The performance of traditional aerodynamic performance. For example, the tube-and-wing designs will improve only so 2004 Scientific Advisory Board study on fuel far. To realize more dramatic improvements in efficiency concluded that adding winglets on lift/drag ratio may require a whole new ap- certain aircraft could increase lift/drag ratios proach: blended wing-body aircraft. by up to 7%, though installation costs would not be recuperated until about 20 years of fleet operations. The USAF Air Mobility Com- mand has undertaken a study of winglets for the military transportation fleet. And a Na- tional Research Academy Report in 2005 reached the conclusion that relatively simple modifications such as adding aerodynamic strakes, smooth laminar flow engine nacelles, and proper aileron trimming could have con- siderable savings over a large airfleet. But more dramatic improvements will re- quire a new approach to airframe design. Lightweight materials are one answer—the lighter an aircraft, the farther it will go on a The Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft is a proof of concept tank of gas. The introduction of composites In a blended-wing shape, wing and fuse- technology demonstrator for holds considerable promise in reducing air- lage are smoothly merged so that the entire advanced composite manufac- frame weight, thus reducing required fuel. aircraft is producing lift. The idea is not new; turing processes in a full-scale, certified aircraft. It was developed Boeing’s 787 will use an all-composite air- the German Junkers G.38 introduced ele- by AFRL and Lockheed Martin frame, an example the military is following. ments of a blended design in the late 1920s, officials. Under the sponsorship of the AFRL, Lock- and various aircraft, from the Northrop Flying heed-Martin Skunkworks, working with Au- Wing to the B-2 bomber, have used the same rora Flight Sciences, has built a smaller scale basic principle. NASA is presently testing a advanced composite cargo airplane, based on 7-m subscale radio-controlled blended-wing an existing aluminum-body Fairchild-Dornier demonstrator, designated X-48 at its Dryden 328JET. This one-of-a-kind aircraft began fly- facility. This aircraft may be the prototype of a ing in June, and is meant to pave the way for next generation of fuel-efficient airliners, other lightweight composite aircraft. cargo haulers, or military transports. Standard composites are not the only promising material for fuel-efficient airframes. vvv The Airbus A-380 uses a hybrid composite Finding alternative fuels that are friendly to material in its upper fuselage, formed from al- both the pocket and the environment, devel- ternating sandwich layers of aluminum and oping even more efficient engines, and dra- glass fiber. This material, originally developed matically broadening our notions of what an at Delft University in the Netherlands, is not aircraft should be made of and how it should only much more crack resistant than pure alu- look will all contribute to reducing fuel con- minum, it is stronger and lighter than alu- sumption. And coupled with finding ways to minum as well. It is also more easily reparable fly less, these efforts will leave our military just than a pure composite. Studies have shown as strong but a lot more green.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 31 SEITZENlayout909-2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/11/09 3:38 PM Page 2

Growing fuels for greener skies

THE VIRGIN ATLANTIC 747 THAT TOOK OFF ON FEBRUARY 24, 2008, looked like any other commercial aircraft. But its flight from London to Amsterdam ushered in what many hope will be the next era of aviation. The fuel powering one of its four engines was a mixture of 20% biofuel, making Virgin the first airline to operate a commercial aircraft with a biofuel blend. Detroit automakers continue the struggle of giving birth to an en- vironmentally friendly car, but the green revolution is not confined to terra firma. In aviation, the quest for a lower emissions fuel source is solidly under way. The Virgin trip was followed by an Air New Zealand flight in December 2008, and by Continental Airlines and JAL flights in January of this year. But the search will require un- precedented levels of coordination between government researchers and industry to make such a transition seamless as well as rapid. “I’m afraid the odds of success will be reduced without an inte- grated federal/private sector approach to evaluating the potential ben- efits and costs of aviation biofuels,” says Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D- Ariz.), who chairs the House subcommittee on space and aeronautics. Giffords held a hearing this spring to review the status of the various biofuels initiatives. She expressed some skepticism that such a unified approach has the priority it needs. “We all know the importance of aviation to our economy and to our quality of life,” she says. “But that doesn’t give it a free pass.”

An economic imperative Developing a more environmentally friendly, but economical, fuel source has become a quest to improve the bottom line for most air- lines. In 2006, fuel became the largest element of operating costs for U.S. carriers for the first time in history. According to statistics as- sembled by the Air Transport Association, during the past seven years commercial aircraft have maintained an average consumption rate of nearly 20 billion gallons of fuel a year—however, fuel prices have more than doubled. The search for more fuel efficiencies is not new to the airline in- dustry. Since 1997, the fuel consumption and emissions that result by Frank Sietzen Jr. from transporting a Continental main-line passenger one mile have Contributing writer been reduced by 35%. Between 1997 and 2007 the U.S. airline in-

32 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 Copyright© 2009 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. SEITZENlayout909-2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/11/09 3:38 PM Page 3

Efforts to develop environmentally friendly fuels are yielding results, with more and more airlines making successful flights using new biofuel blends.

dustry improved fuel efficiency (as measured generations, made from energy crops like al- by revenue ton miles per gallon of fuel) by gae, camelina, halophytes, and jatropha, have 110%, saving 2.5 billion metric tons of green- come from energy stocks such as switchgrass house gas—the equivalent of removing 18.7 and woody feedstocks. These have higher pro- million cars from the road each year. U.S. air- ductivity, use smaller land masses to grow, and lines burned 3% less fuel in 2007 than in do not raid foodstock areas—a key reason for 2000, despite having flown 20% more pas- the worldwide interest in their use as aviation sengers and cargo during the same period. fuel additives. It was this mix that powered the When last year’s statistics become available, Continental flight. They also produce more en- they are expected to show more such gains. ergy per hectare than the traditional first-gen- eration fuels and are thought to be more sta- The“drop-in”goal ble and commercially viable. The first generation of biofuels, such as What industry is hoping for is a true ethanol, was made from corn and soybean, “drop-in” fuel mixture that can replace exist- derived from foodstocks, and required large ing pure petroleum products more or less land masses to grow. The second and third seamlessly, without major changes to the avi-

The number four engine of a Virgin Atlantic 747-400 bound for Amsterdam from London was fueled with a sustainable biofuel blend composed of babassu and coconut oils blended with kerosene-based jet fuel.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 33 SEITZENlayout909-2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/11/09 3:39 PM Page 4

ation fuel logistics system, engine designs, or troleum-based jet fuel, with the same level of onboard fuel tankage and delivery networks. safety. These fuels should also provide envi- Whatever biomaterials are used, they most ronmental improvements and energy supply likely must share certain common characteris- security, and they should spur economic devel- tics: They must be high in energy, safe to use, opment in their production and distribution. able to be manufactured in large quantities Although CAAFI itself does not sponsor and remain in a liquid state at subzero tem- specific biofuels research, it coordinates the peratures, and cost effective to produce. overall research being carried out by the par- Several other characteristics should be ticipant members. “An improved environmen- common to all potential biofuel candidates. tal footprint is a critical objective of alternative They should be plants that do not significantly jet fuels,” says Maurice. The FAA has funded impact biodiversity or jeopardize supplies of its share of CAAFI’s environmental work, to drinking water. The total greenhouse gas the tune of $1 million a year. emissions from plant growth, harvesting, pro- Along with the Air Force, the FAA is also cessing, and end-use should be significantly spearheading the creation of a framework for lower than such emissions from fossil fuel ex- life-cycle emissions standards from alternative traction, production, and end-use. The devel- fuel sources, seeing how different approaches opment of such fuels also should improve cut the aviation greenhouse gas emissions. social/economic conditions for small-scale The team endorsed new modeling tools for farmers who rely on agriculture for food, and these evaluations last October. About a half- should not require the involuntary displace- dozen domestic and international fuel produc- ment of local populations. High conservation- ers are participating in the evaluations, ac- value areas and native ecosystems are not cording to Maurice. cleared for aviation fuel production. CAAFI is also developing a road map for aligning the federal and private research pro- CAAFI grams. On January 27 the team updated the The FAA has addressed the biofuels effort by overall R&D road maps after a joint meeting assembling a new consortium. CAAFI, the hosted by the Air Force in Dayton, Ohio. Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Ini- CAAFI is also trying to develop a commonly tiative, launched in 2006, is a coalition accepted definition of exactly what alternative of federal agencies including the FAA, jet fuels are, so that the maturity of different NASA, DOE, USDA, EPA, and the research paths can be best evaluated. An ef- Air Force, along with airlines, air- fort is now under way to develop specifica- ports, and aircraft and jet engine tions for synthetic alternatives to complement makers. Jointly sponsored by the existing specifications for petroleum-based FAA, the Air Transport Associa- fuels. It would include definitions of a wide tion of America, the Aerospace In- range of biofuels and specifications that would dustries Association, and the Air- define biomass-to-liquid fuel ratios for use at ports Council International-North blends up to 50%. That fuel-ratio mix defini- America, CAAFI aims at improve- tion is expected by early next year. The new ments in four areas: fuel certification, standard’s certification, derived from flight test R&D, environmental impacts and costs/ experience, would follow. The first benefits, and the practical business of com- Maurice warned that gaining such certifi- generation of mercializing biofuels. cation may require more detailed testing, such biofuels was derived from feed- “It is clear there is no one ‘silver bullet’ as full combustor rig and engine firings under stock like sugar cane, which are also food sources. global process or feedback solution,” said approval protocols. The Air Force’s C-17 Lourdes Maurice, FAA chief scientific and tests using biofuel mixtures can be leveraged technical advisor in the Office of Environment to apply the results to commercial aircraft and Energy. “Rather, there are multiple solu- fleets, but with some additions. “Additional tions which we can pursue in an environmen- testing to cover low emissions combustors and tally and economically viable and safe man- advanced cycles such as those being devel- ner,” she told Gifford’s hearing this spring. oped at NASA should be explored,” Maurice Maurice serves as the FAA’s environmental observed. But the full combustor rig tests re- team leader for CAAFI. quire 250,000 gallons of the fuel—necessitat- The FAA’s goal with CAAFI is to promote ing greater financial investments from both the development of renewable jet fuels for use developers and other research sources. in today’s existing aircraft fleet—fuels that offer Other hurdles include qualifying environ- industry equivalent or better cost vis-`a-vis pe- mental impacts. Assessments of both air qual-

34 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 SEITZENlayout909-2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/11/09 3:39 PM Page 5

ity and greenhouse gas life-cycle emissions im- structure, a NASA initiative to align pacts require performance models that are national developments to promote constantly updated as new biomass fuels are civil aviation progress in the 21st developed. Another issue is designing an infra- century. structure for the deployment and availability of Shin cites the major chal- a biofuels production industry. The best and lenges for the biofuels industry as most promising biofuels must be accessible production and application. One through a logistics system that brings the prod- of the production challenges being uct to market in the vast quantities that will be addressed by NASA researchers is needed if, say, a 50% biofuel blend is to be determining whether any biofuel can easily available to airports. Today’s jet fuel de- be made sustainably, economically, and livery infrastructure serves more than 80% of on a scale sufficient to support the aviation all jet fuel in the 35 busiest airports. Thus a industry. “This will require understanding fac- Technicians with the Center of generally accepted biofuel mix could be fully tors affecting the growth of biomass that [will Excellence for Hazardous Materials advanced by the aviation industry into more be] economically viable and sustainable,” Shin Management sample the water in a stock tank being used to common use and acceptance. says. Production processes that reduce energy grow algae at New Mexico State Another consideration is the economic during the biomass-to-fuel conversion process University’s Agricultural Science feasibility of developing biofuels in today’s must be developed. “The goal must be carbon Center. Researchers are working rocky economy. Conventional and traditional neutral,” he adds. to determine the best methods to grow and harvest the algae, investment sources have been constrained by Because of the limited testing done to which can be used for the the current market, according to experts and date, uncertainties remain. Research at NASA production of biodiesel fuel. CAAFI. Only moderate investments near air- will have to address both gaseous and particu- (Photo by Darrell J. Pehr.) ports are needed, the FAA calculates. “Re- late emissions characteristics from engines so newable jet fuels offer the opportunity to team that alternative fuels can be optimized for re- the aerospace science and technology efforts ducing emissions. As a result, the agency is with those of agriculture, energy, and sustain- embarked on long-term foundation research ability to address all of these challenges,” to better understand the effects of various al- notes Maurice. ternative fuels on engines. This work includes laboratory combustion NASA-sponsored research tests under controlled conditions, and ground At NASA, where the vast majority of aviation engine testing under simulated flight condi- research takes place, an initiative begun in tions. NASA has recently modified several 2007 aims at building on the agency’s exist- combustion test facilities to study combustion ing expertise in fuel chemistry and processing, performance and the emission characteristics combustion, and gas turbine engine develop- of several different alternative fuel blends and ment. “NASA also recognizes that the wide- alternatives with the petroleum-based Jet-A. spread use of biofuels for aviation will require Current research using Fischer-Tropsch fuel a concerted effort by multiple government has begun to yield test results. A 2008 part- agencies, aerospace industries, academia, and nership with Pratt & Whitney using a geared biofuel producers,” says Jaiwon Shin, NASA turbofan engine ran with a blend of jet fuel associate administrator for aeronautics re- and F-T. Test results showed there were no search. Biofuels development and commercial significant differences in gaseous emissions deployment are one element of the National and also confirmed the benefits of F-T fuel in Plan for Aeronautics R&D and Related Infra- reducing particulate emissions. In addition,

Flight tests develop the concept In addition to Virgin’s 2008 test, three additional biofuel The flight was powered by a 50% biofuel blend. During test flights aboard commercial carriers have been con- the test, the aircraft was put through climbs, accelera- ducted. An Air New Zealand 747-400 with Rolls-Royce tions, decelerations, and an engine windmill restart. engines tested a 50% biofuel blend during an engine That flight also was the first by a commercial carrier ground test run and on a test flight from Auckland on using a biofuel mixture derived from algae, and the December 30, 2008. The 2-hr flight tested performance first biofuel flight using a two-engine aircraft. of the plane climbing, windmill restarts, and starter- A JAL 747-300 using Pratt & Whitney engines tested assists. Acceleration and deceleration were tested, and a 50% biofuel mixture flying from Tokyo on January 30. a simulated approach and go-around were conducted The plane also conducted a ground test of the fuel mixture. at 10,000 ft. This 2-hr flight also tested the plane in climbs, accelera- Continental Airlines flew a 737-300 with CFM tions, decelerations, and an engine windmill restart. engines on January 7 of this year from Houston for 2 As of this writing, evaluations of the test flights hr, the first sustainable biofuel flight in North America. were still in progress.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 35 SEITZENlayout909-2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/11/09 3:39 PM Page 6

Key points about biofuels Biofuels are produced from renew- almost worldwide, including deserts land is unviable for food crops but able biological resources such as and salt water. They have the poten- suitable for second-generation plant material that absorb CO2 from tial to deliver large quantities of fuel biofuel crop growth. the atmosphere as they grow. When at more stable prices—although Algae, the most promising the fuel is burned, the CO2 is released aviation will not rely on just one feedstock being studied, is consid- back into the atmosphere. In theory, type of feedstock. ered a third-generation biofuel. biofuels can be produced from any Examples include jatropha, a To meet the technical require- renewable biological carbon mate- plant that produces lipid oil, which ments for aviation, a biofuel rial. The two most common feedstock is the biofuel stock; camellia, an candidate must be: sources are plants rich in sugars and energy crop; and halophytes, which •A high-performance fuel bio-derived oils. First-generation are salt marsh grasses that produce that can withstand a range of biofuels have been used for a num- a high-energy feedstock. operational conditions. ber of years for transport, home Second-generation biofuels offer •Able to substitute directly for heating, power generation from lower CO2 emissions across their life traditional aviation jet fuel. stationary engines, and cooking. cycle. As a substitute for traditional •A fuel that does not Second-generation aviation jet fuel, they provide a more diverse compromise safety. biofuels use a sustainable resource to geographical fuel supply and may •Able to meet stringent produce fuel that can be considered offer a solution to price fluctuations performance targets. as a replacement for traditional jet related to fuel cost volatility. In fuel, while not consuming valuable addition biofuels can provide eco- food, land, and water resources. nomic benefits to parts of the world, Source: Beginners Guide to Biofuels They can be mass grown in locations especially developing nations, where (Boeing, Airbus), CAAFI, FAA.

NASA has studied emissions produced from a The data are being shared with the other PW308 turbofan run with 100% F-T fuel and CAAFI stakeholders and will be used to refine a blend of F-T and jet fuel. future flight tests. Epstein says in the next ma- This year a NASA-owned DC-8 aircraft jor test, planned for 2010, a Jet Blue/Airbus/ has been tested by the agency with various IAE flight will use a third-generation biofuel biofuel mass blends. “The tests provided data blend. This is expected to be the first flight test that will improve understanding of the evolu- using a third-generation biofuel feedstock. He tion of particulate emission and plume chem- also says P&W is pursuing the design and de- istry for engines burning alternative fuels,” velopment of a new jet engine that incorpo- Shin says. The agency is also using multiscale rates improved performance. “By that we modeling of fluid mechanics aimed at spur- mean better fuel efficiency and lower engine ring the growth of second-generation biofuel weight,” he says, adding that “There is also mixes. Industry can use these models in de- synergy with military fuel requirements and signing the next generation of bioreactors to markets to foster U.S. energy independence.” probe reducing the cost of future biomass Boeing’s approach to biofuels has built production. on previous fuel improvements. “Today’s jet aircraft are 70% more fuel efficient than jet Industry efforts aircraft produced only 50 years ago,” says UTC’s Pratt & Whitney and the FAA, as well Billy Glover, managing director of environ- as CAAFI, have embarked on a public-private mental strategy for Boeing. While the com- partnership in biofuels development and re- pany has no interest in becoming a biofuels search. “We expect the world’s commercial producer, flight test results all revealed no ma- aviation to grow at an annual rate of 45% av- jor issues with the biofuels, which were mostly eraged over the next 40 years. The CO2 the 5% mix of second-generation biomass. emissions from aviation are proportional to Glover says Boeing is compiling a com- the amount of fuel burned, so a public-private prehensive report on all the data obtained partnership in aeronautical research can con- during these tests. Fuel property tests also tinue the 2-2.5% improvement in fuel econ- took place at several locations, including Boe- omy,” says Alan Epstein, vice president for ing, Honeywell facilities, and the Air Force technology and environment at Pratt & Whit- Research Laboratory. Engine tests examined ney. Epstein says the test results from the per- control, operability, flame-out, and transient formance of the P&W engines on the JAL thrust characteristics, all yielding results that test flight showed that a second-generation were consistent with pretest predictions. biofuel mix had no impact on performance The database being compiled—start and “nothing of note was observed in the times, lean blow-out margins, and accelera- postflight inspection.” tion and deceleration times—would be key in-

36 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 SEITZENlayout909-2.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/11/09 3:39 PM Page 7

dicators of the viability of biofuel usage. Still, cation of new civil aviation biofuels is pos- says Glover, there were some surprises hiding sible within the next two or three years, in the raw data: provided key steps are met. The first is •The process to make bio-derived synthetic that the cost of the biofuel must reflect paraffinic kerosenes was feedstock agnostic. the actual value it brings to the pur- •At a 50% blend ratio, a bio-derived fuel chaser—the derivative must be cost performed as well as, and in some cases bet- competitive with existing petroleum- ter than, traditional jet-fuel-based sources in based fuel mixtures. Second, capital As terms of performance and emissions. must be invested in production and distri- fuel •No change in aircraft systems fueling in- bution chains, a development Epstein be- yielding frastructure or engines is required for imple- lieves will be greatly facilitated once formal plants, halo- menting biofuels in civil aviation. certification of the fuels occurs. And finally, phytes such as salt marsh grass offer the advantage of •Large-scale production of a bio-derived some form of comprehensive, peer-reviewed not depending on a supply of fresh fuel appears to be possible from sustainable research is needed to establish the carbon water. sources. footprint of the different biofuel mixtures and to document their sustainability. Government New standards and future certification has a role to play here, he suggests, but the While a greater federal regulatory and re- establishment of that ongoing research be- search role is rarely sought by industry, several longs in academia. large aerospace firms are calling for new such Advocates hope that by the end of the standards. Boeing, GE, and other aviation next decade some percentage of the world’s firms are urging the federal government to es- civil aviation fuel can be supplied by biological tablish an efficiency standard for the designs sources. The financial viability of commercial of new aircraft. aviation in the 21st century may well be up in Pratt & Whitney’s Epstein believes certifi- the air until then.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 37 HAYESlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:49 PM Page 2

he European Aviation Safety Agency thiness Authorities (JAA) was established to (EASA) is set to propose a new initiative produce common certification codes for civil Tto identify and solve some of Europe’s aircraft and engines, mainly to support Airbus most urgent aviation safety challenges. The activities. In 1987 the JAA’s remit was ex- European Aviation Safety Programme (EASP) tended to cover operations, maintenance, li- will be drawn up with participation from the censing, and certification/design standards for European Commission, industry experts, and all classes of aircraft. But the JAA was not national authorities and will prioritize safety is- backed by the political power of enforcement; sues at the European level. Among the likely the rules were voluntary and applied differ- subjects for safety action are helicopters, hu- ently throughout Europe. man factors, and improved training standards in the aviation business. A change in the air The existing European Strategic Safety With EASA all that has changed. “States have Initiative will be one key input to the EASP. effectively pooled their efforts for aviation This is a 10-year program launched in 2006 safety,” states John Vincent, who heads and is the European regional dimension of the EASA’s 15-person safety analysis and re- ICAO global aviation safety road map. But the search group. Rules and regulations are now EASP is set to tackle more immediate issues drawn up at a European level and enforced by and reflects the growing willingness of EASA European legislation. to take proactive measures to improve Eu- This legislation can take two forms—di- rope’s aviation safety performance. rectives and regulations. Directives are Euro- EASA was formed in 2003. Before then, pean Union (EU) measures, which have to be safety regulation in Europe was managed by passed into law via the national parliaments of national bodies with differing priorities. There individual states. But this process can be long, had been a long-acknowledged need to set up and the end legislation may differ from state a single regulatory authority within Europe to to state. A regulation, on the other hand, is an harmonize standards and take a “holistic” ap- immediate and binding law with which all EU Philip Butterworth-Hayes proach to developing a European-wide avia- member states must comply. Contributing writer tion safety system. In 1970, the Joint Airwor- In recent years, the European Commis-

38 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 Copyright© 2009 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. HAYESlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:50 PM Page 3

The European Aviation Safety Agency is working to overcome aviation safety issues on a pan-European scale.It is also reaching out to the FAA to create a joint certification process. Working hand in hand with both manufacturers and airlines,EASA’s goal is to make flying Europe’s skies as safe as possible.

Moving toward

proactive regulation

sion (EC) has used these powers to support proactive,” Vincent points out. “For example, work on aviation safety. we might have been able to identify a trend of For example, Directive 2003/42/EC of landing gear failures in Dash-8 aircraft in the European Parliament and the Council of Scandinavia—and been able to act more June 13, 2003, on occurrence reporting in swiftly.” civil aviation—without imparting blame or re- In 2007, EASA was given responsibility sponsibility—established requirements for EU for carrying out safety audits on all aircraft fly- states to set up mandatory reporting of safety- ing into and out of Europe, as part of the related incidents. EASA had established a Safety Assessment of Foreign Aircraft (SAFA) database using ECCAIRS software (http:// program. There are now 41 European states eccairsportal.jrc.it/) so incident reports could affiliated with the program, and in 2007 a to- be collected, stored, and analyzed in an ICAO- tal of 8,594 inspections were carried out, compliant format. States had been collecting mainly on EU-registered airlines. Those in- this data for many years but it was in different spections resulted in 14 “entry permit reper- A De Havilland Canada Dash 8 formats and standards, making EU-wide cussions,” 22 grounded aircraft, 1,318 cor- taxis out from Växjö Airport. A analysis extremely difficult. rective actions before flight authorization, 126 trend of landing gear failures in The directive became applicable in 2003; aircraft operation restrictions, and 3,386 re- Dash-8 aircraft in Scandinavia could have been identified earlier two regulations were added in 2007. Regula- ports provided to the aircraft’s certification au- had regulations introduced in tion 1330/2007 lays down implementation thority and aircraft operator. 2007 been in place. Photo by rules for the dissemination of information on Henrik Sendelbach. civil aviation occurrences to interested parties; regulation 1321/2007 sets rules for integrat- ing that information into a central repository. But by the start of 2009 many member states had not yet integrated their data into the ECCAIRS reporting system; the EC has given them until the end of this year to do so. “If we’d have had this capability earlier we would have had the chance to be more

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 39 HAYESlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:50 PM Page 4

All reported data from ramp inspections the number of annual airliner fatalities re- are stored centrally in an EASA-run database. corded in EU states was 86—as in all accident In addition, foreign airlines flying into the statistics, the headline figures do not tell the EU will, in the future, be subject to an EASA whole story. The fatalities came as a result of safety audit and will be banned if they fail to two accidents—154 people were killed when a comply with ICAO standards—a system that McDonnell Douglas MD-82 crashed on take- closely parallels the FAA’s international avia- off on August 20, 2008, in Madrid, and three tion safety assessment program. people died on May 30 of that year when an EASA also gathers ramp inspection data Airbus A320 overran the runway in Honduras from national states as part of the process of on landing. Although this aircraft was oper- “blacklisting” airlines that do not comply with ated by an airline from outside Europe, it was ICAO standards, a process carried out by the registered in one of the EASA member states. EC’s Directorate-General for Transport. There were also two fatal commercial hel- But such measures are essentially reac- icopter accidents in Europe in 2008 (com- tive. To ensure that there are continuous im- pared to one in 2007). In these accidents provements in safety levels, EASA is looking three people died—this compares to an aver- at developing more proactive measures over age of 10 fatalities a year over the last nine the coming years. years for this sector. Commercial helicopter accidents in Eu- Broadening the scope rope are a particular concern. “We need to “We are now looking to do more advance take action when we fail to see a continuous safety work,” says EASA’s Vincent. “For ex- improvement in safety levels, and with heli- ample, we are sponsoring research into dam- copter rates we have seen the rate remain flat age detection of composite structures. We for the last 10 years,” Vincent stresses. In par- know that spotting damage to a composite ticular, there is a concern about the number of airframe is much more difficult than a metallic helicopter incidents ferrying staff to oil and one. So we are researching whether there is gas rigs. an effective and easy way to detect damage to In April 2008, the European Helicopter composites.” Safety Team (EHEST) released its first analysis Despite traffic increases, aviation safety of 168 helicopter accidents that occurred be- performance is improving throughout Eu- tween 2000 and 2005, concluding that “68% rope—although the rate of improvement is of the fatal accidents and 34% of all accidents slowing. In 2008, 157 people were killed in occurred during the en route phase of flight, airliners registered in countries where aviation and in 33% of the accidents, the pilot had less One hundred and fifty-four people safety is regulated by EASA. Although this is a than 1,000 hours of total helicopter experi- were killed in the Spanair Boeing rise over previous years—in the last nine years ence. In 26% of the accidents, the pilot had MD-82 incident in Madrid. Image courtesy efeservicios.com. less than 100 hours of flight experience on the helicopter type involved in the accident.” The team made a number of recommen- dations, mainly involving training and instruc- tion, flight operations, safety management, and safety culture, as well as regulations and standards. The EHEST has a goal of reducing the helicopter accident rate by 80% by 2016.

Building industry,and FAA,buy-in In the last six years EASA has grown from an aircraft certification agency with just a few dozen staff to a wide-ranging aviation regula- tor with nearly 500 employees. From the start it was recognized that the organization would only be successful if it relied on stakeholder advisory input, was well resourced and funded by a fair charging scheme, that it was backed by appropriate political muscle, and success- fully trod the delicate tightrope between over- and underregulation. At a safety symposium organized by the

40 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 HAYESlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:50 PM Page 5

U.K.’s Civil Aviation Authority in January SAFA members 2009, NetJet’s regulatory affairs director The 40 member states engaged in the SAFA program Mark Wilson gave a personal view of how the are: Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia agency had performed. and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech “Industry involvement is written in to the Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, basic regulation and has been enhanced,” he Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, said. “The involvement of the EASA advisory Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Republic of board with the management board is a signifi- Georgia, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, cant step forward but the funding, the big is- Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, The former sue of three years ago, is still not resolved.” Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey, United EASA is funded partly from central EU Kingdom, Ukraine. resources and partly from direct charges to manufacturers for its services. However, the fees are not fixed by EASA but by the EC. Ac- cording to Wilson, the fees and charging “For example, for aircraft and engine cer- scheme do not reflect its costs, and the contri- tification we not only have a single set of rules bution of the EU is too low. to satisfy (with no national variations) but also The agency faced a funding gap early in a single authority with a single point of con- its career when a shortfall in funding threat- tact awarding a single Type Certificate—which ened ongoing certification work and led to covers all EU states. As it extends its remit fur- EASA proposing a temporary 40% increase ther, all of the activities that EASA is respon- in its hourly rate for certification work, along sible for will likely benefit in a similar way. with substantial fixed-fee rises for design or- Their development into a strong and influen- ganization clearance. tial aviation authority has been achieved in a And many manufacturers, while happy to relatively short space of time, and it is gratify- see the emergence of a single strong certifica- ing to see their desire to involve stakeholders tion agency, have questioned the principle in the development of the regulatory structure and the amount of certification fees. They also and their determination in driving further im- cite a potential conflict of interest, as just one provements in safety.” manufacturer, Airbus, is likely to be such a At the end of June 2008 EASA and the major source of the agency’s income. Wilson FAA signed a bilateral agreement that ex- calls for a long-term funding review of the tended previous safety agreements to cover agency, especially given the new responsibili- airworthiness approvals and monitoring of ties for air traffic management and airports civil aeronautical products, environmental regulations that EASA will assume after 2012. testing and approvals, and approvals and EASA spokesman Dan Holtgen says the monitoring of maintenance facilities. fees and charges system has, in the meantime, Despite this, there are still areas of almost been modified to reduce costs for small and philosophical differences between the two medium-sized businesses, and further revi- regulators. For example, EASA has not yet sions are not excluded. But it is unlikely, he sanctioned the widespread use of PMA parts says, that the commission will reverse its throughout the EU, although during 2010 it charging policy and shift the burden from in- will look at this issue within the scope of the dustry to taxpayers in the near future. bilateral agreement. In the U.S., aircraft main- At the same time, manufacturers have tenance technicians are permitted to work un- generally welcomed the benefits that EASA der their own certificates and approve their has brought, especially in the creation of an own work, whereas in Europe the work has to EASA/FAA joint certification process that has be authorized by the licensed maintenance or- made it relatively easy for the FAA to validate ganization itself. a European certification and vice versa. “European industry is now benefiting Speed bumps from having a single aviation authority and a While manufacturers have generally wel- common set of regulations covering design, comed the development of a single safety manufacture, and maintenance,” says Michael agency, the airlines have, on some issues at C. Sanders, airworthiness manager for the least, been less kind. AeroSpace and Defence Industries Associa- “EASA was formed with the objective ‘to tion of Europe. “This is extremely important promote cost efficiency in the regulatory and to us, particularly with the increasing multina- certification processes and to avoid duplica- tional nature of aerospace projects. tion at national and European levels,’ yet

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 41 HAYESlayout909.qxd:AAFEATURE-layout.Template 8/12/09 12:50 PM Page 6

since its inception in 2003 overall charges to sociation of European Airlines (AEA)—were industry have increased, mainly due to dupli- not particularly happy with the proposed new cation of activities,” said European Regions rules on flight and duty time limitations (FTL) Airline Association Director General Mike and the process by which they were drafted. Ambrose in April. “In some cases, operators In particular there were concerns about are now obliged to seek approval from both the length of time airlines would have to con- EASA and their national aviation authority, sider proposed new amendments to the rules. defeating the primary objective for which the EASA sponsored a scientific and medical Although the A320 that overran agency was set up in the first place.” study into pilots’ rest and duty time to support the runway in Honduras was Holtgen says there is “absolutely no over- the EC in evaluating existing EU legislation operated by TACA, an airline lap” between its type-certification and national drawn up before the agency had responsibil- headquartered in El Salvador, it was registered in an EASA authorities’ operational approvals, but con- ity for operational rules. According to AEA, member state. cedes in the special case of the Permits to Fly, this “employed a flawed methodology…if im- used for aircraft under maintenance or repair, plemented it would require airlines to employ EASA has to approve specific “flight condi- many more pilots to the same amount of fly- tions” before national authorities can issue a ing—AEA estimates an additional 15% to permit to operators. 20%—and would render impossible many A second issue for airlines has been the flight routings which are operated today.” way EASA has consulted with its stakeholders EASA says it was required by EU legisla- over new airline operating rules it is required tors to commission the study, but that it is un- to draw up by EU law. When EASA started der no obligation to follow its recommenda- drafting new rules on flight crew licensing, for tions. Instead, it intends to present a new example, it set up a consultative group with approach to FTL with stakeholders that would representatives from medical organizations, allow airlines to operate individual FTL pilot associations, business, and commercial schemes as long as they can prove there is no airlines to draft the rules. But according to the risk of pilot fatigue. agency, they could not agree on a common position within the deadline for the work set vvv out by the European Parliament and Council. EASA was given a new mandate in May to ex- So EASA took over responsibility for drafting tend its competency to include safety regula- the rules itself, and then started to discuss the tion of ATM and airport operations through- proposals with the different stakeholders. The out the EU, beginning in 2012. With that, the agency arranged a number of workshops final piece of Europe’s new regulator jigsaw around the continent to explain the text and puzzle will be in place, allowing for a true to- encourage comments. tal-systems approach for safety regulation. Airline groups—especially the Interna- But it will not be an easy task. In the current tional Air Transport Association and the As- ATM regulatory system, an air navigation service provider can be regulated by six differ- ent organizations (EUROCONTROL, ICAO, ECAC, national civil aviation administrations, EASA’s roles the EC, and the commission’s national super- The European Aviation Safety Agency is based in Cologne, Germany, and its remit covers all visory authorities set up to regulate Single Eu- 27 EU countries plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland, and has several areas ropean Sky activities). Reducing this to just of responsibility: •Expert advice to the EU for drafting new legislation and implementing monitoring two would be regarded as a success. safety rules. EASA proposes, following consultation with stakeholders, regulations that are At the same time EASA is continuing to delivered to the EC for passage into law as part of the decision-making process with the recruit staff capable of setting appropriate European Parliament. It then checks whether states have properly implemented the rules regulations to an ATM technology that is mov- and reports to the commission if there any infringements. ing into new domains of space, data link and •Type-certification of aircraft and components, as well as the approval of organizations automatic dependent surveillance. involved in the design, manufacture, and maintenance of aeronautical products. EASA also issues airworthiness directives that demand changes to aircraft types and equipment in But despite issues of funding and stake- cases where safety problems can occur. Member states retain the authority to check holder involvement, EASA has in its short his- whether aircraft registered in their country are airworthy. tory shown itself capable of adapting to the •Authorization of third-country (non-EU) operators—the Safety Assessment of Foreign technical and political challenges of 21st cen- Aircraft program. tury pan-European regulation. •Safety analysis and research. “Over the last five years we have seen •Negotiating aviation safety agreements with the rest of the world. EASA assists the EC steady capability increases,” says Vincent. “In on behalf of the EU member states to negotiate technical safety agreements, such as the recent bilateral agreement signed with the FAA. the next five years we will be more proactive— and that should bring future improvements.”

42 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 OOP090layout.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:19 PM Page 2

25 Years Ago, September 1984 International Institute of Space Law are approved during the 10th |International Astronautical Congress, held in London from Aug. 30 to Sept. 5. Inauguration of the academy takes place on Aug. 16, 1960, in Stockholm. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 12; H. Moulin, ed., IAF: The First 50 Years, pp. 42, 49, 51.

Sept. 9 The first launch of the Project Mercury unmanned test capsule under Project Big Joe (Big Joe 1) is launched from Cape Sept. 5 Discovery, NASA’s newest Canaveral, Fla., for a planned 2,000-mi.-range mission. But the two space shuttle, lands at Edwards AFB, outboard booster engines of the Atlas rocket fail to separate after Calif., after a successful maiden burnout, and the speed and altitude are greatly reduced, although flight. Astronauts on the mission, the spacecraft is successfully recovered near Barbados, 500 mi. launched six days earlier from the short of the planned impact point. Flight, Sept. 25, 1959, p. 294. Kennedy Spaceflight Center, successfully deploy three satellites Sept. 9 The first operational Atlas D ICBM is successfully launched by an and film their work with an IMAX all-military crew in a 4,480-mi. test flight from Vandenberg AFB. It is also the camera for a movie, The Dream is first launch of an Atlas from this base. On the same day, another Atlas ICBM is Alive.NASA, Astronautics and successfully fired from Cape Canaveral. Aviation Week, Sept. 14, 1959, p. 32; Aeronautics, 1979-84, pp. 521-522. The Aeroplane, Sept. 18, 1959, p. 209.

Sept. 14-18 Capt. Joseph Kittinger Sept. 12 The Soviet Union launches its Lunik 2 space probe completes the first solo transatlantic toward the Moon on the same day Premier Nikita Khrushchev flight in a balloon he has named departs for the U.S. The following day, the 858.4-lb probe Rosie O’Grady. He flies from Caribou, becomes the first man-made object to hit the Moon. There is Me., to the Italian Riviera near no attempt to slow it down, and it impacts in the area of the Savona, Italy, a distance of 3,535 mi., Seas of Tranquility, Serenity, and Vapors at 7,380 mph. in 86 hr. The balloon contains 3,000 However, data are radioed back during the flight on the ft3 of helium. U.S. Centennial of magnetic fields of the Earth and Moon, cosmic radiation, Flight Commission Timeline Web site. micrometeors, and interplanetary gas. The Aeroplane, Sept. 18, 1959, p. 208; Aviation Week, Sept. 21, 1959, pp. 28-30. 50 Years Ago, September 1959 Sept. 15 The Air Force’s all-solid-fuel Minuteman ICBM undergoes its first static Sept. 1 The Atlas ICBM officially firing, and the next day a full-sized Minuteman is launched from an underground becomes operational and is taken silo. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915-60, pp. 12-13. over by the Strategic Air Command at Vandenberg AFB, Calif. E. Emme, ed., Sept. 17 The North American X-15 (No. 2) rocket research aircraft achieves its Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915-60, first powered flight, piloted by A. Scott Crossfield. At 38,000 ft, the aircraft is p. 12. released from its B-52 carrier and its dual XLR-11 rocket engine is fired. This XLR-11, of 16,000 lb total thrust, is called the interim engine because development Sept. 2 The of the plane’s XLR-99 57,000-lb-thrust engine is not yet complete. The XLR-11s International and the XLR-99 are made by the Reaction Motors Div. of Thiokol Chemical. The Astronautical plane reaches 1,200 mph in a 3.5-min. powered flight and lands at Edwards AFB. Federation names The Aeroplane, Sept. 25, 1959, p. 250; Aviation Week, Sept. 21, 1959, pp. 35, Theodore von 28; and Sept. 1959, p. 109. Kármán to head a committee for Sept. 17 The 265-lb Transit-1A, the world’s first navigation satellite and a establishing an forerunner of GPS, is launched from Cape Canaveral by a Thor-Able IV. The International satellite was developed by the Navy for use with the submarine-launched Polaris Academy of Astro- fleet ballistic missile to enable it to navigate toward its targets. However, the nautics. Both the rocket’s third stage fails to fire and the satellite is lost. The Transit finally succeeds academy and the in 1960. D. Baker, Spaceflight and Rocketry: A Chronology, p. 93.

44 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 OOP090layout.qxd:AA Template 8/11/09 3:20 PM Page 3

An Aerospace Chronology by Frank H.Winter and Robert van der Linden National Air and Space Museum

Sept. 18 The 52.25-lb Vanguard III is successfully orbited. It is the sixth U.S. satellite launched during the International Geophysical Year and the last of the Project Vanguard series. In all, 11 attempts were made to launch Vanguard satellites, but eight were failures. D. Baker, Spaceflight and Rocketry: A Chronology, aircraft. Aviation, October 1934, pp. 93-94; The Aeroplane, Oct. 9, 1959, p. 320. p. 327.

Sept. 24 An Atlas-Able Moon probe scheduled for launch in early October Sept. 15 The Aeromedical Lab of the explodes during a static firing at Cape Canaveral, leading NASA to re-examine Army Air Corps is founded at Wright the entire space program. The Aeroplane, Oct. 2, 1959, p. 293. Field, Dayton, Ohio. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915- Sept. 28 René Caudron, one of France’s earliest aviation pioneers, dies, at 75. 60, p. 34. He started his career in aviation with his brother, Gaston, in a horse-drawn glider. In 1909 René built their first monoplane. They later built an amphibian and a Sept. 22 Sir Alan Cobham and Sqdn. biplane widely used during WW I. Caudron was noted for production of the Ldr. William Helmore are forced to military planes G-3, G-4, R-4, and R-11. Up to WW II, the company also trained end their attempt to fly nonstop from more than 17,000 pilots. The Aeroplane, Oct. 9, 1959, p. 305. England to India when the throttle control on their Airspeed Courier 75 Years Ago, September 1934 malfunctions. They had planned to remain airborne continuously by means Sept. 1 The Loire 46-Cl, an all-metal gull-wing monoplane single-seat fighter, of aerial refueling. They have refueled makes its first flight. Powering the plane is a Gnome Rhone 14 radial engine. The twice, but the broken throttle forces aircraft’s rate of climb and ability to dive are excellent. Following tests, 60 Loire them to glide to a wheels-up landing 46s are ordered by the Armee de L’Air. A. van Hoorebeeck, La Conquete de L’Air, on the island of Malta. The Aeroplane, Vol. 1, p. 267. Sept. 26, 1934, p. 357.

Sept. 4 William McCormick flies an autogyro over Antarctica. Departing from 100 Years Ago, September 1909 Adm. Richard Byrd’s base at Little America, McCormick surveys the Bay of Whales and the Ross Sea from an altitude of more than 7,000 ft. Flight, Sept. Sept. 5 Wilbur Wright and Glenn 13, 1934, p. 949. Curtiss fly at the New York Sept. 8 Built especially for the upcoming England-to-Australia race, the De celebration Havilland D.H. 88 Comet makes its first flight. It features two Gypsy Six R air-cooled marking the inline engines of 230 hp each. Maximum speed is 237 mph. A. van Hoorebeeck, 300th anniversary La Conquete de L'Air, Vol. 1, p. 267. of Henry Hudson’s voyage up the Sept. 9 Sir Charles Kingsford-Smith Hudson River establishes a new in his ship the transcontinental Half Moon, record across and the 102nd Australia by flying anniversary of the first commercial his single-engine steamship, Robert Fulton’s Clermont. Lockheed Altair Wright flies around the Statue of from Melbourne Liberty accompanied by blasts from to Perth in 10 hr 22 min. In 1928, Kingsford-Smith flew the same route in 22 hr. the oceanliner Lusitania, which has Flight, Sept. 13, 1934, p. 948. been signaled by Guglielmo Marconi Sept. 9 American Airlines places the new single-engine, high-speed Vultee V-1 with his new wireless set. This is the transport into service. The new planes fly from Chicago to Fort Worth, a distance last time one of the Wrights flies in of 959 mi., in 6 hr 27 min. The Vultee has a single Wright Cyclone engine and public. D. Baker, Flights and Flying, can cruise at over 240 mph. American Airlines orders four of the eight-passenger p. 38.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 45 AA_SEP2009_COPP.qxd:Layout 1 8/11/09 3:24 PM Page 2

OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY Faculty-Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (Design, Solid Mechanics, and Structural Mechanics) A tenure track faculty position at the level of Assistant Professor or Associate Professor is available beginning January 2010, or later, starting date negotiable. Oklahoma State University has a strong commitment to grow both the quantity and quality of our engineering research programs. With 25 faculty lines and 180 graduate students, mechanical and aerospace engineering annual research expenditures will soon exceed $200K per tenure track faculty member. Applicants should have teaching and research interests in the general area of design, solid mechanics and structural mechanics, with a plan for development of a research program in an emerging or rapidly developing area. Excellent experimental skills are required, together with good analytical and computational skills. It is expected that the successful candidate will have the desire and ability to teach courses at the undergraduate level, in mechanical design, aircraft structures, engineering design, and similar courses, and courses at the graduate level commensurate with his/her research interests. An earned Ph.D. in engineering is required, with a preference for either mechanical or aerospace engineering. Successful candidates must have demonstrated potential for excellent teaching at undergraduate and graduate levels, and for developing a strong externally funded research program in areas where there are excellent possibilities for competitive extramural funding. Good communication skills, both oral and written, as judged by faculty and students, are essential. Applications accepted until the position is filled. Send letter of application, statement on teaching interests and philosophy, statement on plan for research and securing extramural funding for at least two projects, curriculum vitae, and list of five references to: Dr. Raman P. Singh, Chair Design/Solid Mechanics Search Committee School of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering 218 Engineering North Oklahoma State University Stillwater, OK 74078-5016 Women and minority applicants are strongly encouraged. Oklahoma State University is an affirmative action/equal opportunity/E-Verify employer committed to diversity.

46 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 AA_SEP2009_COPP.qxd:Layout 1 8/11/09 3:24 PM Page 3

NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICALAND AEROSPACE ENGINEERING AEROSPACEENGINEERINGPROGRAM AEROSPACE ENGINEERING FACULTY POSITION The New Mexico State University Department of Mechanical and Aerospace southern New Mexico has many cultural and natural attractions and a very Engineering has initiated undergraduate and graduate programs in aerospace pleasant lifestyle. Competitive salary and start up packages are available. engineering. Applications are invited to fill two tenure-track aerospace Please submit applications electronically by emailing your package to engineering faculty positions. These positions may be at the Assistant or [email protected] with the words “faculty position” in the Associate Professor levels, depending on qualifications. The starting date subject line. Attach the following items: a current vita, a summary of teaching for these positions is August 2010. interests, a statement of research goals and plans for future research, the Candidates must have an earned doctorate in Aerospace Engineering names and contact information of at least three references, and information or a closely related field, must be committed to teaching at the undergraduate regarding eligibility for employment in the U.S. Alternately, hardcopy of and graduate levels, and are expected to establish an active and externally the same information can be sent to: funded research program. We seek candidates who can effectively teach the Aerospace Search Committee Chair breadth of aerospace engineering classes offered and who can provide Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department leadership in developing high quality research programs. The research New Mexico State University specialties we seek are as follows: 1) one position is in experimental fluid PO Box 30001 MSC 3450 mechanics with preference for a candidate who can build on our existing Las Cruces, NM, 88003 strengths in fluid-structure interaction; 2) the other position may build on Screening will begin November 1, 2009 and will continue until the existing strengths in micromechanics, nonlinear structural dynamics, aerospace positions are filled. Additional information about the department can be vehicle dynamics and control, or computation or may be in other areas that found at http://me.nmsu.edu. Complete posting details can be viewed at show promise for future growth. The successful candidates will have the www.nmsu.edu/person (requisition numbers 2009002819 and 2009005014). opportunity to shape the new aerospace engineering program in a state in Benefits include group medical and hospital insurance, group life insurance, which aerospace has become a cultural and economic force. state educational retirement, workmen’s compensation, and unemployment The State, the University, and the College of Engineering have compensation. Employment offer contingent upon verification of individual’s identified aerospace engineering as a program of critical importance and eligibility for employment in the United States. have committed significant resources for its development. In addition, New Mexico State University is an EEO/AA Employer.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009 47 AA_SEP2009_COPP.qxd:Layout 1 8/11/09 3:24 PM Page 4

48 AEROSPACE AMERICA/SEPTEMBER 2009