Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses Graduate School 1999 Chicken Pax Atomica: the Impact of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict Between Interstate Dyads. James Franklin Pasley Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses Recommended Citation Pasley, James Franklin, "Chicken Pax Atomica: the Impact of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict Between Interstate Dyads." (1999). LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses. 7119. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses/7119 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 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CHICKBM PAX ATONZCA: THE IMPACT OP HUCLZAR NBAPOHS OH COHFLICT BBTHEBH IHTBR8TATB OTAOS A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Political Science by James Franklin Pasley B.A., Southwestern University, 1993 M.S., Southwest Missouri State University,. 1994 December 1999 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. UMI Number 9960090 UMI UMI Microform9960090 Copyright 2000 by Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Bell & Howell Information and Leaming Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ACKHOHLBDGMEVTS I would like to thank all the members of my committee for their thoughtful insights and professional assistance in the production of this final work. The most vital to me of these members was my major professor and dissertation chair, Eugene R. wittkopf, who guided me with a steady hand and encouraging words. I consider Professor Wittkopf to be one of the pre-eminent scholêurs in International Politics and it was an honor to work with him. I also have special appreciation for William Clark, Christopher Kenny, and Mark Schafer for their assistance in my development and execution of my quantitative methodology; and for the avatar of LSU culture, Kevin V. Mulcahy, whose humor and sophistication shed light in the occasional intellectual void of social science. In addition, I wish to thank Kelli A. Greene for her genuine encouragement and interest, as well as for the myriad copies she was kind enough to prepare for me. Even larger than the contributions of these individuals, though, has been the constant support of my two parents, James N. and Ruth Pasley. I certainly could not have achieved the academic heights I have been able to reach had it not been for all the sacrifices they made on my behalf. I can never repay them, but as one small indication of my appreciation for all they have given, I dedicate this dissertation and the degree it permits to them. 11 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. TABLE OP COMTBHTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.................................. 11 LIST OF TABLES.................................... V LIST OF FIGURES.................................. vl ABSTRACT....................................... vll CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION: THE THREAT AND PROMISE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS............................ 1 2 CRISIS AND NUCLEAR WEAPONRY................ 10 Nuclear Optimism........................ 11 Pax Atomlca............................. 15 Crises euid Nuclear Weapons............... 23 Opaque Proliférants..................... 26 Games of Chicken........................ 31 Conflict Escalation euid Nuclear Weapons.... 36 3 THE IMPACT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON CONFLICT ESCALATION..................... 40 Methodology............................. 40 Dependent Variable: Conflict Escalation... .42 Independent Vcurlables.................... 45 Results................................ 52 Summciry................................ 59 4 THE NUCLEAR EVOLUTION OF THE INDO-PAKISTANI RELATIONSHIP IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR........... 61 Background: Indo-Paklstanl Security Policy.62 Methods ........................... 71 Alliance Membership......................73 Geographic Proximity..................... 74 1947-46 Dispute Over Jammu and Kashmir..... 75 1965 Dispute Over Jammu and Kashmir........78 1990 Dispute Over Jammu and Kashmir........85 1999 Dispute Over Jammu and Kashmir........91 Alternate Explanations for De-escalatlons... 97 Results................................ 99 Prospects for Nuclear Reversal........... 101 Conclusion........ 108 3.3.1 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. 5 US NUCLEAR POLICY AND MANAGED PROLIFERATION.................... 112 US Policy Towards Nuclear Weapons........ 113 Nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula 120 Nuclear Nexus.......................... 120 Turkey and Greece...................... 131 Background ....................... 132 US Policy Recommendations............... 146 6THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS............... 148 SMA................................... 149 Precision Strike and Delivery............ 150 Information Warfare.................... 152 Robotics and Nanotechnology............. 153 Space Technology....................... 156 Time's Arrow.......................... 159 Conclusion............................ 162 BIBLIOGRAPHY................................... 166 APPENDIXES A THE NUCLEAR CLUB..................... 188 B 56 SYMMETRICAL NUCLEAR DYAD CONFLICT INSTANCES....................... 189 C 291 ASYMMETRICAL NUCLEAR DYAD CONFLICT INSTANCES....................... 191 D SIGNATORIES OF THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY.................. 197 VITA...........................................201 IV Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OP TABLES 1. HID Dispute Level Codes......... .. ............43 2. The Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict Level...53 3. The Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict Fatalities........................... 53 4. 1947-48 Indo-Pakistani Conflict................ 77 5. 1965. Indo-Pakistani Conflict...... 81 6. 1990 Indo-Pakistani Conflict................... 89 7. 1999 Indo-Pakistani Conflict................... 95 8. Indo-Pakistani Conflict Over Jammu and Kashmir.. .100 9. Escalation Factors on the Korean Peninsula Post 1990.................................... 128 10. Escalation Factors for Greco-Turk Dyad.........145 11. War in the International System, 1816-1994..... 161 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OP FIGURES 1. Prisoner's Dilemma cuid Chicken................. 32 2. The Law of Accelerating Returns as implied to an Evolutionary Process......................... 160 VI Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ABSTRACT Nuclear %«eapons, long considered the bête noire of human existence are examined quantitatively and qualitatively in this dissertation to ascertain if the heinous effects they threaten ultimately serve to promote deterrence between pêtirs of states. The findings suggest that nuclear weapons do have a significant intact on conflict when present on both sides of a dyadic dispute. In such symmetrical nuclear pairs conflict levels are quantitatively shown to be reduced, suggesting that the conflict inhibiting qualities of these weapons long espoused by nuclear optimists are legitimate. Further evidence is presented in the form of a qualitative analysis of conflict between India and Pakistan over