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Strengthening Foothold in Cheras

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Strengthening Foothold in Cheras 3.01 May 8, 2018 SP Setia (SPSB MK) BUY Share Price MYR 3.01 Strengthening foothold in 12m Price Target MYR 3.79 (+26%) Cheras Previous Price Target MYR 3.79 Company Description Neutral on new land deal S P Setia Bhd is involved in the real estate businesses. We are neutral on SPSB’s latest land deal in Cheras. While it is Its reputable projects including Setia Alam and Setia strategically located in the fringe of city centre, we are concerned on its Eco Park. planned development amid an overcrowded high-rise property segment. Also, SPSB can only start launching post the completion of QSPH phase 1 Statistics (within 48 months), putting on financial stress on its cash flow in the near term. We maintain our earnings forecasts and MYR3.79 RNAV-TP (on 52w high/low (MYR) 4.00/2.81 an unchanged 0.75x P/RNAV peg). BUY. 3m avg turnover (USDm) 2.2 Free float (%) 64.5 Enters into privatization with DBKL Issued shares (m) 3,890 Via 50%-owned Retro Highland (RH; another 50% is owned by Tradewinds Market capitalisation MYR11.7B Real Estate Corporation Bhd [delisted in 2013]), SPSB has entered into a USD3.0B privatisatization with DBKL for the planning, design, construction, Major shareholders: Permodalan Nasional Bhd. 30.0% completion and commissioning of a Quality Sustainable People Housing Bumiputra Investment Foundation 25.7% (QSPH) project which entails the construction of 3,971 residential units, Employees Provident Fund 9.2% 112 units of shops/stalls, a market and other public facilities. In return, Price Performance RH will be awarded 52.3 acres of leasehold land in Cheras. Total cost for the construction and cash consideration is MYR1.2b, translating into an 4.20 155 effective land cost of MYR525 psf. The land will be developed into a 4.00 145 Malaysia high-rise mixed development with GDV of MYR11b. 3.80 135 3.60 125 Cost psf is fair, but… 3.40 115 This arrangement is not new to SPSB. It had in fact, received the Letter 3.20 105 of Intent to redevelop the same piece of land back in June 2011. We are 3.00 95 neutral on the deal. Despite its strategic location at the fringe of KL city 2.80 85 centre and fair pricing as compared to Mah Sing’s land cost of MYR539psf 2.60 75 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 for its nearby M Vertica project, we are concerned on the overcrowded high-rise property segment. Also, we were told that SPSB can only start SP Setia - (LHS, MYR) SP Setia / Kuala Lumpur Composite Index - (RHS, %) launching the new project after the completion of QSPH phase 1. This -1M -3M -12M may put on some financial stress on SPSB’s cash flow. We estimate Absolute (%) 7 (7) (14) proforma net gearing to rise to 0.6x in 2019 from 0.1x end-2017. Relative to index (%) 7 (8) (18) Source: FactSet Potential impact to RNAV SPSB is taking the lead in the JV project. Assuming a pretax margin of 15% and 11 years of development period, the project will likely enhance our RNAV/share estimate by +9sen to MYR5.14. FYE Dec (MYR m) FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Revenue 5,711 4,520 5,048 5,824 10,417 EBITDA 1,759 1,514 1,110 1,281 2,292 Core net profit 956 890 601 1,074 1,828 Core FDEPS (sen) 27.7 22.3 13.9 24.8 42.2 Core FDEPS growth(%) (21.5) (19.4) (37.9) 78.6 70.2 Net DPS (sen) 20.0 15.5 7.4 13.9 24.4 Core FD P/E (x) 10.9 13.5 21.7 12.1 7.1 P/BV (x) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.6 Net dividend yield (%) 6.6 5.1 2.4 4.6 8.1 ROAA (%) 4.7 3.4 2.0 3.4 5.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 12.0 21.9 19.7 11.1 Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 10.9 10.1 49.2 53.2 52.9 Consensus net profit - - 624 752 989 MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - (3.7) 42.8 84.8 Wong Wei Sum, CFA [email protected] (603) 2297 8679 THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD PP16832/01/2013 (031128) SEE PAGE 10 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS SP Setia Details on the privatization agreement (PA) Location of the land The QSPH development and the exchange land are located at the southeast of the Chan Sow Lin area in Kuala Lumpur and immediately east of the Cheras LRT station. It is approximately 8KM to Kuala Lumpur city centre and 3KM to Viva Mall and is located alongside Jalan Loke Yew. QSPH to be fully developed in 8 years The overall QSPH development entails the renewal of 5,650 residential units. The initial phases of the QSPH development as part of the PA will involve the renewal of the 3,971 units under Taman Ikan Emas cluster houses, Sri Melaka low cost flats, Sri Pulau Pinang low cost flats and long houses, Sri Johor low cost flats under the government’s public housing scheme, common facilities, shops, stalls and a market. Under the PA, the QSPH project will be divided into two phases and are expected to be completed by 2028. More details on the exchange land Phase 1 of QSPH development Exchange land 1 (13.89 acres) Total units: 1,192 units Plot 7 (12.15 acres), plot 18 (1.53 acres) and plot 19 (0.21 acres) - 658 units from Tamn Ikan Emas cluster - 534 units from Sri Melaka 4G Phase 2 of the QSPH development Exchange land 2 (38.36 acres*) Total units: 2,779 residential units - 792 units from Sri Johor 4A - 472 units from Sri johor 4B - 118 units from Sri Pulau Pinang (Rumah Plot 1 (30.63 acres), Plot 2B (4 acres), Panjang) Plot 8A (5.46 acres), Plot 14 (0.18 - 112 units shops/stalls and public facilities acres) and Plot 15 (0.09 acres) - 1,079 units from Sri Johor 4C - 240 units from Sri Melaka 4F - 78 units from Sri Pulau Pinang (Rumah Panjang) - 244 lots in market *excluding 2 acre of land for Pencawang Masuk Utama Source: Company The agreed value for the exchange land In exchange for the QSPH development, DBKL will transfer the exchange land to RH. The land will be transferred in two stages upon the completion and handing over of QSPH’s phase 1 (13.9 acres of land is exchanged to SPSB) and phase 2 (38.4 acres). The agreed value for the exchange land is MYR1.2b which comprises of: 1) Phase 1 of QSPH development’s construction cost of MYR344.8m; 2) Phase 2 of QSPH development’s construction cost of MYR835.1m; 3) A cash consideration of MYR15m; and May 8, 2018 2 SP Setia 4) Additional cash consideration for the difference to be paid to DBKL if the construction cost of the QSPH development is lower than the cost estimated for phase 1 and phase 2 as mentioned above. An MYR11b project The exchange land will be developed into a high-rise mixed development with an estimated GDV of MYR11b over a period of 11 years. The properties would likely be priced from MYR700-800psf onwards, we were told. Location of the QSPH Development and the exchange land Source: Company May 8, 2018 3 SP Setia Further information on the exchange land Source: Company May 8, 2018 4 SP Setia SPSB's RNAV estimate Remaining MV BV Surplus landbank Landbank Stake acres (MYRm) (MYRm) (MYRm) Malaysia Southern region Bukit Indah 100% 63.1 82.5 15.1 67.4 Setia Indah 100% 19.4 16.9 2.4 14.5 Setia Cascadia 100% 116.2 101.2 75.9 25.3 Setia Tropika 100% 211.0 183.8 64.8 119.0 Setia Eco Gardens 70% 180.1 235.4 43.1 134.5 Setia Business Park II 100% 43.4 37.8 20.8 17.0 Central region Setia Eco Glades @ Cyberjaya 70% 50.4 87.9 79.1 6.2 Setia Eco Hills 100% 228.3 198.9 129.3 69.6 Semenyih land 100% 882.1 768.5 345.8 422.7 Setia Alam 100% 564.6 1,475.6 85.8 1,389.8 Setia Eco Park 50% 114.5 299.2 39.9 129.6 Northern region Setia Pearl 100% 16.1 57.8 20.0 37.7 Setia Greens 100% 12.3 44.3 29.0 15.3 Seberang Perai 100% 1,674.8 1,094.3 744.1 350.2 Sub-total: 4,683.9 1,695.3 2,798.7 DCF (discount factor: 12-13%) NPV Malaysia Stake (MYRm) Setia Sky Residences, Klang Valley 70% 0.0 Setia City, Klang Valley 100% 478.0 KL Eco City, Klang Valley 100% 337.1 Setia Federal Hill at Bangsar, Klang Valley 50% 205.5 Seputeh Land, Klang Valley 100% 48.7 Setia V Residences, Penang 100% 9.6 Setia Raintrees Residences 100% 24.7 Aeropod - Tg Aru, Sabah 70% 35.4 Setia Sky 88, Johor Bahru 100% 10.4 British High Comm 100% 76.2 Templer Park 100% 113.3 New land in Bangi 100% 133.5 I&P Group 1) Bandar Kinrara 51% 100.6 2) Bayuemas 52% 129.9 3) Alam Damai 70% 88.8 4) Alam Sutera 70% 3.7 5) Alam Impian 100% 455.2 6) Alam Sari 100% 155.9 7) Temasya Putra 100% 227.9 8) Salak Tinggi 100% 74.0 9) Bandar Baru Seri Petaling 100% 53.9 10) Semenyih land 100% 347.2 11) Temasya Glenmarie 66% 176.8 12) Brogaville 100% 54.9 13) Taman Perling 100% 27.5 14) Taman Pelangi 100% 128.1 15) Taman Rinting 89% 73.9 16) Taman Pelangi Indah l 100% 156.5 17) Taman Industri Jaya 100% 27.0 18) Sg Sedu 70% 30.8 19) Kota Sri Langat 66% 36.3 20) Pulau Gadong Road 100% 5.2 21) Kota Bayuemas 100% 30.1 22) Taman Pelangi indah 100% 435.9 23) Mukim Tanjung Kupang 100% 124.1 24) Mukim Serkat 100% 31.2 SPSB's RNAV estimate (continued) May 8, 2018 5 SP Setia Singapore 26) Daintree 100% 97.8 Australia ^ Parque Melbourne 100% 0.0 Carnegie, Melbourne 100% 9.7 Prahran, Melbourne 100% 10.4 UNO Melbourne 100% 85.9 308 Exhibition, Melbourne 100% 117.8 United Kingdom* Battersea Power Station 40% 1,575.1 Sub-total: 6,344.6 Grand total 9,143.3 Private placement at MYR3.07/sh 997.8 Shareholders fund - 2017 11,943.7 RNAV 22,084.8 RCPS-i 305.6 RCPS-iB 322.8 Existing share capital (m shares) 3,420.2 Private placement of new shares 325.0 Enlarge share capital (m shares) 4,373.6 FD RNAV (MYR/share) 5.05 Target price (MYR/share) (based on 0.75x P/RNAV) 3.79 Source: Company, Maybank KE May 8, 2018 6 SP Setia FYE 31 Dec FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Key Metrics P/E (reported) (x) 10.1 12.0 22.5 12.6 7.4 Core P/E (x) 9.8 11.2 22.5 12.6 7.4 Core FD P/E (x) 10.9 13.5 21.7 12.1 7.1 P/BV (x) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.6 P/NTA (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 Net dividend yield (%) 6.6 5.1 2.4
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