Department of Studies and Financial Forecasts

Regions in Morocco :

Sector‐based Contribution to National Wealth Creation

Are all Moroccan regions growing at roughly the same pace? Have they achieved the same results or are there inter‐regional disparities in terms of performance? Answers to these questions warrant analysis of significant GDP indicators. Stakes are high, and central power must provide adequate support systems in a bid to decentralize implementation of public policies. For their part, local authorities are required to take concrete steps towards putting in effect regional strategies of sustainable development.

January 2010 Régions du Maroc : Contributions sectorielles à la création de la richesse nationale______

Table of Content

Table of Content------2 List of Acronyms------3 Introduction ------4 1. Evaluation Methods of Regional Growth------7 2. Assessment of Regional Added Value by Business Sector ------10 2.1. Region-based Added Value of Primary sector------10 2.1.1. Region-based Added Vlaue for Agriculture ------10 2.1.2. Region based Added Value for Fishing ------13 2.2. Region-based Value for Secondary Sector ------16 2.2.1. Region-based Value for Extractive Sector ------17 2.2.2. Region-based Added Value for Processing Industry------19 2.2.3. Region-based Added Value for Refinery and Energy Products------21 2.2.4. Region-based added value for the electricity and water sector------242 2.2.5. Added Value for Construction and Public Works per Region ------264 2.3. Region-based added value in the tertiary sector------3027 2.3.1. Region-based added value for hotels and restaurants------3128 2.3.2. Region-based added value for commercial services off hotels and restaurants ------3330 2.3.3. Region –based added value in non-traded services------3431 2.4. Concentration of regional GDP in three regions……… ………………………………..34 Bibliography ------463 List of figures ------484 Graph list------45 List of tables ------506 Appendiecs……………………………………………………………………………………...47

Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

List of Acronyms

CO : Chaouia - Ouardigha DA : Doukkala – Abda FB : Fès – Boulemane GC : Greater Casablanca GCBH : Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen GS : Guelmim - Es-Semara LBSH : Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra MT : Meknès – Tafilalet MTH : Marrakech – Tensift - Al Haouz O : Eastern Part ODL : Oued Ed-Dahab - Lagouira RSZZ : Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer SMD : Souss - Massa - Daraa TA : Tadla – Azilal THT : Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate TT : Tanger - Tétouan

3 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Introduction

Determining the economic and social profile of a region may seem easy in light of dominant discourse on the benefits of extensive decentralization. Pitfalls in functionalist approaches adopted by the state and its institutions appear without delay, thereby undermining attempts to come up with an analysis which could question emerging development rationale that is increasingly gaining ground.

Curiously enough, the region is to a certain extent a territorialized entity that is at the heart of the debate on this new rationale. In this instance, it serves, however, as a defining element of a new development vision and not as a mere substitute used strictly for basic tasks in the local management of national development programs.

The interplay between development economy and territorial economy gave birth to perspectives on development economy as a whole. One such perspective is a new outlook on territorialized development processes, hence the importance of alternative methods of space management which no longer serves as a mere adjunct to major activity. Perspectives on territory change to allow room for territorial economy and localized systems of production and bring into play factors such as competition, cooperation, labor division and innovation.

In Morocco, the debate on regionalization appears to have been gaining momentum since 1976, following the review of the communal charter that governs local authorities. Both the 1992 and 1996 constitutions gave decentralization a territorial dimension, further consolidated through a revised communal charter in October 2002 and its amendment in 2008. The perspective on regionalization, nonetheless, continues to be anchored in decentralization.

High Royal Directives outlined in the King’s address of January 3, 2010, mark, however, a new era in the dynamics of institutional reforms and speak in favor of a more advanced view on regionalization. Therefore, “extended regionalization is not meant to be mere technical or administrative planning but rather an informed choice towards renovation and modernization of state bodies and the consolidation of integrated development.”

Such new dynamics is the best barometer to initiate new practices towards fostering Morocco’s economic, social and cultural progress, and extend tangible achievements to all regions without losing account of local resources, efforts and legitimate aspirations.

Given today’s economic downturn in the international market, a Moroccan model of growth requires more than ever an alternative approach that takes the region as an adequate framework for development, and regionalization as a suitable mode of management and action. Morocco’s experience of regionalization is still beset with several challenges.

o There are wider discrepancies amongst regions in terms of the job market, mounting social exclusion, inconsistency in urban growth and its negative impact on territorial competitiveness in most Moroccan cities, together with the severe damage caused to the environment. Such factors undermine the central sector-based style of management used in the country.

4 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

o There is marked absence of regional mapping crucial to building regional entities that could in turn constitute a framework for mobilizing the population and raising awareness of the potentials of the region

o Regional institutions are under-organized and fall short of duties such as territorial and economic tasks, as well as social planning for development, territorial marketing, and economic monitoring procedure.

o Poor financing and shortage of skilled human resources. The paradigm of regional development is meant to strike a regional balance and ensure all citizens have equal access to public services and enjoy the same opportunities for social mobility through improvement of their potential in the creation of wealth.

The region is a thriving domain for economic and social development as well as a platform for reflection and planning. It is in search of fresh perspectives on managing development in terms of planning, governance, and the conceptual arsenal that allows it to attend more closely to the needs of the population.

One cannot possibly pretend to a full grasp of all issues relating to regional development. While exercising its prerogatives of economic monitoring, The Department of Studies and Financial Forecasts at the Ministry of Economy and Finance can, however, contribute to this area deemed crucial to delivering modern development.

Using instruments of territorial governance, the DSFF has conducted an analysis of the institutional mechanism used in regional development, and concluded that on-going modernization projects warrant a style of governance that combines two approaches. Whereas the first approach sets poles to power and then in consistent fashion deals with various kinds of territories and degrees of space management, the second is a multilevel structure that adapts to different territorial scales.1

To draw up a typology of regions, the DSFF has then proceeded to the analysis of a wide range of economic and socio-demographic indicators.2 It had to set a timeline to keep record of developments in various regions and highlight progress made in terms of sustainable development while pointing out persistent discrepancies.

These analyses tend to be much deeper and more sector-based with closer focus on intra- regional as well as inter-regional disparities in terms of industrial productivity.3 They have addressed issues of specialization and industrial concentration to assess assets and weaknesses of regional process industries, using three indicators, namely regional and sector concentration, regional specialization as well as sector specificity.4

This study aims to consolidate these tools of analysis. Using GDP per region calculus, it highlights sector-based contribution of regions to creating national wealth and demonstrates a

1 Gouvernance territoriale », DSFF, Rapport Economique et Financier 2008. 2 « Schéma de développement des régions économiques », DSFF, September 2006 3 « Les sources des inégalités dans la productivité industrielle entre les régions », DSFF, 2008. 4 4 « Spécialisation et concentration industrielles », DSFF, April 2009.

5 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

grasp of relative sector-based specialization. The study also puts into perspective the equation between the effects of growth and poverty levels of populations at the regional plane.

In the absence of regional accounts, added value per sector and region has been used as a synthetic indicator modeled on statistic processes and international experiences in this domain. Such an indicator gives an assessment of regional wealth as well as of specific disparities over the last decade.

Further analytical work consisting of locating and processing available or expected data will proceed alongside the strategic turnaround in the development of the nation following His Majesty’s decision to pave the way for the progress of democracy, sustainable and balanced development to which all regions are expected to contribute.

“Regionalization will be balanced and of national benefit only if each and every region fully uses its assets and potentials alongside viable mechanisms of solidarity, while embodying principles of cross-regional complementariness and cohesion in a united Morocco.”

Excerpt from His Majesty’s Speech of January 3rd 2010

6 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

1. Evaluation Methods for Regional Growth

The implementation of processes of regionalization and territorial development revealed insufficient regional statistical data at the national level. In fact, this data is not available to conduct several processes such as determining territorial potential, drawing regional comparisons, following up on and assessing public programs of development.

Pitfalls in devising regional aggregates relate to definition, specificities and calculation system. A major impediment to comparisons between regions, or between a region and the state, is the consistency of national aggregates with regional aggregates. Inter-dependencies between regions as well as inter-dependencies between various branches at the level of national aggregates should be taken into account. Conventional statistical methods cannot possibly trace inter-regional fluxes. Two types of methods are therefore proposed to make up for this statistical deficiency.

The first method, a bottom up procedure, corroborates basic data on units housed in the region until a regional aggregate total has been reached. The sum of regional value must be equal to national value. Because such a requirement is rarely met, the national aggregate must be brought in line with regional aggregates on the grounds that the use of regional data and statistics ensures a better grasp of regional activity. However, the implementation of such a method requires a finely tuned information system modeled on the one France used in its estimate of the GDP of the isle of Mayetta5.

Frame 1: GDP Evaluation Method for the Isle of Mayotta

First and foremost, an estimate of the added value was conducted for public administrations and corporate entities, companies as well as individual enterprises filing rough claims. This was followed by an estimate of the household added value set according to two approaches. The first approach was used to directly assess production of household and other individual enterprises based on an overestimate principle, while making a distinction between agricultural production, pure household production and the added value of other individual enterprises. The second approach is based on household consumption. Two GDP estimates could therefore be drawn using these two resource-oriented approaches. The first estimate is up- scaled whereas the second is regular. The second step is devoted to assessing final employment. A blended version combines resource-based and employment-based approaches.

The second procedure used to estimate regional aggregates is a top –down method on the basis that the whole is ascribed to a region and not a single unit and part of the national aggregate is imparted across regions without worrying about units housed in a specific region. Consistency between national and regional aggregates is therefore ensured.

5 5 Olivier FROUTÉ and Benoit MASSUYEAU, " Évaluation du PIB à Mayotte", Document de Travail CEROM n°1, May 2005.

7 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

A breakdown of the national aggregate could be carried out using an allotment key. This method is used by the Quebec Statistics Institute to assess the GDP of 17 administrative regions (See Frame 2)6. Critics of this method mainly point to the allotment key as well as to the singularity of choice which does not fully reflect regional diversity.

Frame 2: Evaluation Method of Regional GDP in Quebec

The Quebec Statistics Institute has conducted a category-based GDP assessment with regard to 17 administrative regions and metropolitan census regions (MCR) in Quebec, as well as one non MCR territory and three electorate regional conference territories in Monterrey. This top-down method consists of breaking down payroll of independent enterprises according to category. In the case of Quebec, this method involved 63 categories and was based on the ranking system used for regions in North America, as well as breakdown indicators set according to statistical data from Quebec tax revenue. Other added value components are broken down for each category and in proportion to the sum of labour remuneration and the net revenue for independent enterprises (NRIE). The starting point of the whole process is the Quebec total to be divided among the regions; the target data being the GDP based on category and value- added component in current dollars and according to economic accounts of Quebec’s revenue and expenditure.

The breakdown could also be conducted using a two-stage econometric method called ‘calibration and revision’. 7This method formalizes national aggregate on the basis of latent variables whose information is available both nationally and regionally. Using the determinist component of the model, the calibration phase breaks down the national aggregate. On the other hand, the revision phase breaks down the residual part of the model to ensure consistency of national aggregate with its regional counterparts.

6 André Lemelin and Pierre Mainguy, "Estimation du produit intérieur brut régional des 17 régions administratives du Québec", Cahier technique et méthodologique, March 2009. 7 F.Carlevaro, "Régionalisation d'agrégats nationaux au moyen d'indicateurs:une méthode économétrique", in B.Guesnier and J.H.P.Paelinck, Modélisation spatiale:Théorie et applications, Institut de Maths Economiques et Université de Dijon, 1987.

8 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Frame 3: Calibration-Revision Method

The method begins with modeling national aggregate Y in terms of the explanatory variables Xi, whose regional information Xij is available.

Y= β0+ β1 X1+…+ βnXn+ ε, where ε refers to the error term.

In order to reconstitute regional series of variable Y, the calibration is conducted to calculate non equilibrated regional aggregate Yj while resorting to the model as follows. - Yj = β0*Sj+ β1 X1j+…+ βnXnj

S is a breakdown key which is often taken into account as a structure reflecting the weight of each region. The breakdown in this study has been conducted on the basis of an average of explanatory variables balanced up by model coefficient as follows:

Sj = (β1 X1j/ X1 +…+ βnXnj/ Xn)/ (β1+…+ βn)

The revision process reviews regional aggregates set at the end of the calibration process and brings them in line with the national aggregate by breaking down the residue or the modeling error (r=the difference between observed value and modeling value) as follows:

Yj= Yj-+*Sj

The blended method alternates between the bottom-up and top-down methods. Data deficiency from the bottom-up method is made up for by its top-down counterpart. The blended method8, is most often tailored to a country’s specificities and information systems. In estimates of GDP of its metropolitan regions, France9 has predominately used the bottom-up method. Values for subsequent years are projected.

Frame 4: Regional GDP Evaluation Method in France

In 2000 and in accordance with the 1995 European accounts system, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (NISEC) issued estimates of regional gross added value (RGAV) as well as regional GDP (RGDP) for the following years: 94, 95, and 96. Calculated RGAV and RGDP involved 36 sectors (see nomenclature of 36 sectors) and 22 metropolitan regions. Further calculation has been conducted to assess the GDP of the four overseas departments (OD), namely Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana and the Reunion for which the same data is not available.

8 See Figure for Method, Appendix 1 9 See Figure for Method, Appendix 1

9 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

The NISEC adopts an income-based GDP calculation method using complex corporate data systems. This blended method, predominantly bottom –up, uses corporate accounts to work out the added value for each enterprise. In the instance of poly- regional enterprises, added value is regionally broken down in proportion to payroll and on the basis of sector activity. The productivity ratio (added value per wage earner) is then set. Because available corporate data rarely covers all areas of business activity, region and sector based gross added value is calculated on the basis of employment data. In the end, sector- based regional values are proportionally rectified and adjusted to their sector-based metropolitan counterparts. For certain sectors (agriculture, transport, finance, real estate, telecommunications, research and development, culture, education, health, public administration etc…), available data does not allow for the use of this method. The bottom-down method or specific indicators are commonly used to break down added value by region. The structure of regional added value is then applied to metropolitan GDP to work out regional GDP. This method, while demanding in nature, can only be fully used for basic years and the GDP estimate is projected for subsequent years. The projection method applies the 1996 estimates to annual variation percentages of employment by sector and region. Such percentages are reviewed in relation to variation in productivity by sector at the national level. Sixteen regions in Morocco have been concerned at the current rate. The choice of this method is subject to the theme in question as well as to the scale of data availability and breakdown. The quality of regional breakdown is less determined by the method chosen than by the quality of information available.10

2. Assessment of Regional Added Value by Business Sector

2.1 Region-based Added Value of Primary Sector In the first part of this section, the region-based added value of the primary sector will be assessed using the blended method. Initially, regional added value will be calculated for the sectors of agriculture and fishing.11 The region-based added value will be the sum of values of the aforementioned sectors.

Graph 1: Average Breakdown of added value for Primary Sector per Business Sector (1998-2008)

10 LIEW, L.H. « "Tops-down" versus "Bottoms-up" approaches to regional modeling », Journal of Policy Modeling, 1984. 11 In addition to scarcity of information, production from sylviculture, forestry and related sector is too insignificant to be considered in so far as it accounts only 1.6% of primary production for basic year 1998.

10 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Activités tertiaires 55%

Activités Agriculture, chasse primaires et services annexes 17% 16%

Pêche, aquaculture 1% Activités secondaires 28% Source: Calcul DEPF

On average, the primary sector accounts for 17% of overall added value over the 1998-2008 period, 16% of which goes to the sector of agriculture, hunting and related services. The social importance of this sector is evident in the increase in active population which reached 46% on average over this period. Public authorities are major stakeholders in this sector, especially in the domain of agriculture given the structural reforms they initialed through plans such as Green Morocco launched in 2008. This plan, expected to be completed by 2020, aims to ensure dynamic and balanced growth in all areas of this sector.

2.1.1. Region-based Value for Agriculture

The approach adopted in assessing region-based added value for the sector of agriculture, which on average contributes 14% to GDP over the 1998-2008 period, is based on the regionalization of production that uses the calibration-revision method. National agricultural production has been modeled in terms of the following explanatory variables. o Arable land Area (AA) o Production of Grain (PG) o Production of grain legumes o Production of oil crop o Production of Foodstuffs Industries o Livestock o Citrus Arable Land Area o Citrus Production

11 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

This data is available regionally as well as nationally, which meets the crucial requirement for the application of the calibration-revision method. By conducting the linear regression through the step by step method12, we retain the following model:13 Agricultural Production = -135453 + 4,625 * number of livestock + 0,235 * Grain production +1,358 * Citrus Arable Area + ε

Wherein ε indicates the error ensuing from disturbances the model has not taken into account.

The step by step method has retained the optimal model while keeping the most significant explanatory variables with a trustworthiness threshold of 95%, and an adequacy coefficient of 92.3%. This model has ensured the best possible real series of agricultural production.

Graph 2: Trend for Observed and Modeled Agricultural Production (1994-2007)

Source: DSFF figures

Y j Y = Y * j,2000 2000 Y The calibration-revision method14 was then used to track the regional series of agricultural production except for the year 2000. In fact, the most critical error relates to 2000 in terms of level (relative error of 5% between modeled value and observed value) as well as in relative terms (11% decrease in modeled growth rate against only 4% in observes growth rate, compared to 1999). Thus, a process other than calibration revision which has led to dismal results has been conducted for the current year. It applied the average regional breakdown to the 2000 production over the 1998-2007 period, excluding the year 2000.

12 At every stage, this iterative method partly consists of introducing into the model the most significant and independent variable. The process ends when no variable can be introduced or eliminated 13 Voir annexe 2 pour le détail des résultats.

14 See frame 3

12 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

In the absence of the value of explanatory variables for the Oued Ed-Dahab – Lagouira et de Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra regions, the level of agricultural production could not be appraised. Agricultural production in these regions is not so significant due to harsh climatic conditions.

On the assumption that technical coefficients (TC) do not vary from one region to another and that they match coefficients calculated nationally, regional agricultural added value (AV)15 has been subtracted reducing intermediary consumption (IC)

AV=Pj- ICj= Pj*(1-IC)

Graph 3: Average Breakdown of Region-based Added Value for farming (1998-2007)

Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 0,9% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate Meknès - Tafilalet 1,5% Fès - Boulemane 1,4% 0,8% Doukala - Abda Chaouia - Ouardigha Guelmim - Es-Semara 1,8% 2,0% 0,1% Grand Casablanca Souss - Massa - Daraâ 0,1% Tanger - Tétouan 31,6% 5,6% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 6,8%

Tadla - Azilal 12,2%

Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen Oriental 20,3% 14,8%

Source: Calcul DEPF It appears that on average the Souss-Massa-Draâ region has contributed the most significant part to agricultural added value over the 1998-2007 period; therefore accounting for 32% of national agricultural value added. It was seconded by The Gharb - Chrarda - Beni Hssen region which, for its part, contributed on average 20.3%, followed by the Eastern region with almost 15%.

This pattern, however, does not indicate the differentiated trend of agricultural added value at the level of the region; a value which achieved an annual average growth of 1% nationally. In fact, the Guelmim - Es-Semara as well as Tanger Tetouan regions have had the highest growth rates; 8% and 7% respectively whereas the Greater Casablanca and Chaouia

15 See detailed results in Appendix 3

13 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

– Ouardigha regions have witnessed a significant drop of 12% and 11% respectively. Such a contraction is due mostly to dwindling grain production which suffered a significant drop of -16% in the Greater Casablanca and -14% in the Chaouia – Ouardigha region.

Graph 4: Trends in Added Value for farming in the main Regions in Million MAD Source: Calcul DEPF 25000 SMD

20000

15000

GCBH O 10000 TA

5000 MTH TT

DA CO MT 0 THT 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2.1.2 Region-based Added Value for the Fishing Sector

On account of available information on maritime fishing by region, the bottom-up method has thus been used in assessing region-based added value which on average accounted for1.3% of GDP for the 1998-2008 period. The production of maritime fishing has been reviewed to be consistent with information provided by the National Office of Fishing (P+) as well as information from national accounting (P), by applying the breakdown + of maritime fishing production by region (P j) to the national production of the sector of fishing and aquaculture (P) as follows:

14 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

+ P j Pj = P* + ∑ P j

Based on the assumption that technical coefficients do not vary from one region to another, regional added value of the sector of fishing and aquaculture 16has been subtracted from regional agricultural productions by reducing intermediary consumption.

Graph 5: Average Breakdown of Added Value for fishing and Aquaculture by Region over the 1998-2007 Period

Taza - Al Hoceïma - Doukala - Abda Taounate 3,4% 2,1% Tanger - Tétouan 10,4% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer Oued Ed-Dahab - 0,2% Lagouira Grand Casablanca 10,7% Laâyoune - Boujdour - 7,2% S. El Ham ra 13,8% Oriental 1,9%

Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 1,2% Guelmim - Es-Semara 12,4% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen Souss - Massa - Daraâ 1,1% 35,6%

Source: Calcul DEPF

The Souss-Massa-Draâ region has contributed the most significant part to the added value for the sector of fishing and aquaculture over the 1998-2007 period; therefore accounting for 35.6% of national added value for the sector. The Southern regions lag far behind with 13.8%, 12.4% 10,7% for Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra, Guelmim - Es- Semara and Oued Ed-Dahab – Lagouira respectively. These regions were followed by the region of Tangier-Tetouan with an average annual contribution of 10.4%.

The Souss-Massa was, however, the only region to have known a slight contraction of its added value in this sector with an average annual growth of -1%, while growth in other regions such as Oued Ed-Dahab – Lagouira and the Greater Casablanca has been maintained at 17% and 12% respectively.

16 See detailed results in Appendix 3

15 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Graph 6: Trends in Added Value in the main Regions for the Fishing and Aquaculture Sector in Million MAD (1998-2007)

3 500 Source: Calcul DEPF

3 000

2 500 SMD

2 000

1 500

1 000 LBSH GS ODL 500 TT GC DA

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Following the region-based breakdown of added value for agriculture and fishing, the added value for the region-based primary sector has been calculated.17 On average, the Souss-Massa-Draâ has achieved the most significant share of primary added value over the 1998-2007 period, thus contributing 32% of national primary added value. The Gharb - Chrarda - Beni Hssen comes second with an 18, 2% average contribution, followed by the Eastern region with 13.9%.

Graph 7 : Average Breakdown of Region-based Added Value over the Period (1998- 2007)

17 See detailed results in Appendix 3

16 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Oued Ed-Dahab - Lagouira 0,8% Hamra Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer Guelmim - Es-Semara Fès - Boulemane 1,2% 0,8% 1,2% 0,8% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Meknès - Tafilalet Taounate 1,4% 1,6% Grand Casablanca 0,6% Chaouia - Ouardigha 1,9% Souss - Massa - Daraâ Doukala - Abda 32,0% 1,9% Tanger - Tétouan 5,7% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 6,5% Tadla - Azilal 11,4%

Oriental Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen Source: Calcul DEPF 13,9% 18,2%

Graph 8: Trends of Added Value for the Primary Sector in the main Regions in Million MAD (1998-2007)

Source: Calcul DEPF SMD 25 000

20 000

15 000

GCBH O 10 000 TA

MTH 5 000 TT

DA THT MT 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Volatility of agricultural added value has permeated the trend of primary added value at the regional level. Chaouia – Ouardigha and Rabat - Salé - Zemmour – Zaer have suffered the most with an annual average drop of 11% and 8% respectively, which is a record low in these regions. Regions whose primary sector share is linked to fishing have achieved the highest rates of growth, with 17% and 8% in Oued Ed-Dahab – Lagouira and Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra, Guelmim - Es-Semara respectively. Figure 1: Map of Regional Added Value for the Primary Sector (2007)

17 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Source : Calcul DEPF

2.2. Region-based Added Value for Secondary Sector

As in the primary sector, the blended method is recommended in estimates of region-based added value in the secondary sector. Initially, regional added value will be assessed for extractive industry, manufacturing, oil refinery and other energy products, electricity and water as well as construction and public works. Region-based added value will then be calculated.

Graph 9: Average Breakdown of Added Value for Secondary Sector per Business activity for the Period (1998-2008) Industrie d'extraction 2% Industrie (hors Activités tertiaires raffinage de 55% pétrole) 17% Activités Raffinage de secondaires pétrole et autres 28% produits d'énergie 0,3% Electricité et eau 3% Bâtiment et travaux publics Activités primaires Source : HCP 5% 17%

18 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

The secondary sector accounted for 28% of overall added value for the 1998-2008 period. Processing industries contributed the most part with 17% of overall added value. This particular sector has grown by 4% over the 1998-2008 period, thus matching the growth in GDP for the same period.

2.2.1. Region-based Added Value for Extractive Industry

Available information relates to production in terms of volume and product, as well as local sales and exports in terms of value and volume with regard to certain products. The bottom-up approach is recommended for region-based added value in the extractive industry, which on average contributed 2% to GDP for the 1998-2008 period. Initially, an assessment of the production will be conducted in terms of value. The method in such an assessment will be determined by the category of products involved and the kind of information available.

For phosphates, copper and barite, the price per ton has been set in relation to exports in both volume and value. In a context characterized by openness to international markets, export price is expected to translate into a compromise price between export or local consumption, which is a balanced reference price of the product at the national level. This price has also been applied to production in terms of volume of these products by region, while taking into account the standard national price at the regional level.

As to lead, zinc, silver, fluorine, and chemical magnesium, the price per ton is estimated as an average of the export price and the domestic price counterbalanced by the volume of exports and local sales. This price was applied to production in terms of volume to estimate production in terms of value of these products by region on the assumption of uniformity of the national price at the regional level.

With regard to iron, the price of one ton was set in relation to local sales in both volume and value. This price was then applied to production in terms of volume to estimate production in terms of value of this product by region. As to smectic clay and mineral water, information on production in terms of value and by region is readily available.

Value-based production for the extractive industry by region has been calculated as the total sum of production by product and region. This production has been reviewed to make information provided by the Exchange office and the Ministry of Mining and Energy, Water and the Environment (P+) consistent with information from national + accounting (P) by applying the breakdown of production by regions (P j) to the national production of the extractive industry (P) as follows:

+ P j Pj = P* + ∑P j

19 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Based on the assumption that technical coefficients do not vary from one region to another, regional added value of the extractive industry18 has been subtracted from regional productions by deducting intermediary consumption. Graph 10: Average breakdown of region-based added value for extractive industry for the 1998-2007 period

Tadla - Azilal Fès - Boulemane Oued Ed-Dahab - 0,7% 0,2% Lagouira 0,01% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Tanger - Tétouan Zaer 0,1% 1,5% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Souss - Massa - Daraâ Hssen Meknès - Tafilalet 0,4% 0,0% Guelmim - Es-Semara Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. 2,1% 0,01% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Oriental El Hamra Taounate 0,7% 8,3% 0,0% Doukala - Abda 11,5%

Marrakech - Tensift - Chaouia - Ouardigha Al Haouz 58,5% 16,1% Source: DSFF figures The Chaouia-Ouardigha region has achieved the most significant average share of added value for the extractive industry for the 1998-2007 period; thus accounting for 59% of national added value for the sector. The regions of Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz, of Doukkala-Abda and of Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra take up the most part with 16,1%, 11,5% et 8,3% respectively. This is largely due to the production of phosphates and its derivatives which thrives in the region. The sites of Khouribga, Benguerir and Boucraâ have generated for the regions of Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz et Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra respectively 67%, 11% and 10% of national phosphates production for the 1998-2007 period.

The Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra region has known more dynamic growth for the aforementioned period with an average annual growth of 9% compared to Chaouia- Ouardigha with 5% and Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz with 3%.

Graph 11: Trends in added value for the Extractive Industry sector in the Main Regions Million MAD (1998-2007)

18 See detailed results in appendix 4

20 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Source: Calcul DEPF Chaouia - Ouardigha 7000

6000

5000

4000 Marrakech - Tensift - 3000 Al Haouz 2000 Doukala - Abda 1000 Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. E l Ham ra 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2.2.2. Region-based Added Value for the Processing Industry

As to the processing industry, which on average contributed 15% to GDP over the 1998- 2008 period, the annual survey conducted by the Department of Trade and Industry presents the added value broken down by region and business sector. However, this added value (P+) is not consistent with the one presented by the HPC (P), and must be reviewed to ensure compatibility with national accounting, by applying the breakdown of added value by + region (P j) to national added value for the processing industry as above:

+ P j Pj = P * P + ∑ j

The Greater Casablanca region has achieved the most significant average share of added value for the processing industry19 over the 1998-2007 period, contributing 51.8% to national added value for the sector. This further corroborates the region’s leading position as the main industrial centre in the Kingdom. With 3% in average annual growth of the sector, the region, however, remains far below the national average of 4%. This forewarns of a degree of sluggishness in its productive system, and a shift towards tertiary activities. Graph 12: Average breakdown of region-based Added Value for the Processing Industry for the period 1998-2007

19 See detailed results in appendix 4.

21 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Marrakech - Tensift - Al Guelmim - Es-Semara Hamra Haouz 0,4% Oued Ed-Dahab - Lagouira 0,3% 2,6% 0,2% Tadla - Azilal Taza - Al Hoceïma - 0,5% Taounate Oriental 0,4% 2,7% Chaouia - Ouardigha Meknès - Tafilalet 3,4% Fès - Boulemane 2,4% Souss - Massa - Daraâ 3,3% 3,7%

Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 4,8%

Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 4,9%

Doukala - Abda 9,1%

Tanger - Tétouan Grand Casablanca 9,5% 51,8%

Source : DSFF figures

In industrial ratings, the Greater Casablanca is followed by the Tangier-Tetouan as well the Doukkala-Abda regions that respectively contribute 9.5% and 9.1% to industrial added value. Such contributions are being further stepped up in view of sustained average annual growth rates of 6% in Tangier Tetouan and 7% in Doukkala-Abda. This attests to the emergence of the Tangier-Tetouan region as an economic center based around the Tanger- Med hub and giving momentum to the entire region, and underscores the paramount importance of phosphates processing industries, namely phosphoric acid and fertilizers in the development of the Doukkala-Abda region.

Indeed, chemical industries, a staple feature of the Doukkala-Abda region account for 64% of industrial added value.20 It is no wonder that the region made of the Jorf Lasfar plant a national chemical center for processing phosphates attracting 66% of investment allocated to this sector through diversified partnerships, with the aim of consolidating strategic alliances and securing part of its exports.

The driving role played by Jorf Lasfar is expected to gain further momentum for the region, with a 12-billion MAD investment program earmarked by the Cherifian Office of Phosphates for the 2009-2020 period. This momentous program aims to turn the site into an industrial platform for the development and manufacturing of fertilizers; a site that could accommodate ten new fertilizer units as well as storing facilities for raw materials. The COP projects to build an integrated site in support of the gradual implementation of ten partnerships by the year 2020, and increase current traffic at the port fivefold.

Graph 13: Trends in Added Value for Processing Industries in the main regions in million MAD (1998-2007)

20 Spécialisation et concentration industrielles : Atouts et vulnérabilités des secteurs et des régions", DSFF, Ministry of Economy Finance, June 2009.

22 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Source: DSFF figures GC Echelle de droit e 40000 TT 9000

DA 30000

7000

GCBH 20000 5000 RSZZ

CO 10000 3000 SMD FB

1000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

For the 1998-2007 peri od, the Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra enjoyed the most dynamic growth with an average annual rate of 55%, followed by Oued Ed-Dahab – Lagouira with 12%. Such a level of growth resulted from the good results achieved in the foodstuff industry, which is a characteristic of the region and related to the development of sea products.

2.2.3. Region-based Added Value for Oil Refining and Other Energy Products

Prior to 2009, oil refining, which contributed 0.3% to GDP for the 1998-2008 period, had been an activity specific to the city of Mohammedia, with the ‘Société Chérifienne des Pétroles’ (SCP), and to the city of Sidi Kacem, with the ‘Société Anonyme Marocaine de l'Industrie de Raffinage’ (SAMIR). Mohammedia accounted for 80% of national production and Sidi Kacem for 20%.21 On the basis of national accounting, production in this sector is shared between the Greater Casablanca region and the Gharb-Chrarda-Beni Hssen region, with 80% and 20% respectively. Assuming that technical coefficients do not vary from one region to another, region-based added value for the sector of oil refining and other energy products has been deducted from regional production by substracting intermediary consumption. Regional added value of the sector oil refining and other energy products22 have been deducted from regional production by substracting intermediary consumption.

The sector has witnessed a drop in added value following the investment plan carried out by SAMIR, as part of the modernisation of its technical facilities at the Mohammedia refinery which started at the end 2005 and entailed an MAD 10 billion budget. This project notably aims to enhance the refinery’s competitiveness and, therefore, boost productivity which would bode well for the Greater Casablanca region. Contrarily, the closing down of the Sidi Kacem refinery in 2009 has deprived the Gharb – Chrarda – Beni Hssen region of a lasting source of prosperity.

21 Average breakdown of production outlined per refinery over the 1990-1998 period. 22 See detailed results in appendix 4.

23 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Finally, it should be noted that the concentration enacted in the oil refining sector has been heightened since SCP took over SAMIR in 1999, which has resulted in a monopoly situation that may prove detrimental to the sector’s competitiveness. The government is, therefore, expected to implement the plan to open up the sector to competition to make gains in productivity, and provide new opportunities to other regions such as Tangier – Tetouan with the Tanger Med complex, and Doukkala – Abda through the exploitation of the Jorf Lasfar complex, to ultimately achieve additional added value in these regions.

Graph 1: Trends in added value for oil refining and other energy products in the main regions in MAD millions (1998-2007) 2 500

Source: DSFF figures 2 000

1 500 Grand Casablanca

1 000

Gharb - Chrarda - 500 Béni Hssen

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2.2.4. Region-based added value for the electricity and water sector

The approach adopted to calculate region-based added value created by the electricity and water sector, whose contribution to GDP stood at 3% during the 1998-2008 period, is based on the calculation of the production of the sector per region, using the calibration method. The production in the sector is modelled using the following explanatory variables: • the production of thermal and hydraulic electricity • sales of electricity • the production of water by the National Office for Drinking Water (ONEP) • Overall sales of water

Given the availability of this data at the regional and national levels, the conditions for the application of the calibration method are met. The step-by-step linear regression method used for the 1994-2007 period has spawned an optimal model23 retaining only the most significant explanatory variables, with a 95% trustworthiness threshold and an adequation coefficient reaching 99.2%, which has enabled the tracking of the actual series of production in the electricity and water sector.

Electricity and water production = -6654.993 + 0.865 * electricity sales + 0.017 * water produced by National Office for Drinking Water + ε

23 See Appendix 5 for detailed results.

24 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Where in ε indicates error due to perturbations not taken into account in the model.

Graph 2: Trends in observed and modelled electricity and water production (1994-2007)

Source: DSFF figures

The calibration method24 is then used to track the regional series of production of the electricity and water sector. Assuming that technical coefficients (TC) do not vary between regions, regional added value for the sector25 (AVj) is inferred from regional production (Pj) by taking out intermediate consumption (ICj):

AVj=Pj- ICj= Pj*(1-TC)

The Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaers region has achieved the highest average share in electricity and water added value during the 1998-2007 period, thus accounting for 19% of national added value for the sector. The Doukkala-Abda region is second with an average contribution of 12%, followed by the Tangier-Tetouan region with 11% and the Greater Casablanca region with 9.1%. Graph 3: Average breakdown of added value for the water and electricity sector per region for the 1998-2007 period

24 See Graph 3. 25 See detailed results in Appendix 4.

25 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Taza - Al Hoceïma - Laâyoune - Boujdour – Taounate S. El Ham r a 1,8% 1,1% Oued Ed- Dahab- Chaouia - Ouardigha Lagouira 3,1% Guelmim - Es- Semara 0,3% Tadla - Azilal 1,0% 3,3% Meknès - Tafilalet 4,9% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer Gharb - Chrarda - Béni 18,5% Hssen 5,1%

Oriental 6,0% Doukala - Abda Fès - Boulemane 12,0% 7,1%

Souss - Massa - Daraa 7,4% Tanger - Tétouan 11,0% Marrakech - Tensift - Grand Casablanca Al Haouz 9,1% 8,4%

Source: DSFF figures

In terms of growth, the Laayoune-Boujdour-Sakia El Hamra region has enjoyed the highest rate with 13%, followed by the Greater Casablanca region with 12% and the Chaouia-Ouardigha region with 10%. Such a performance can be enhanced by generalising delegated management of distribution, and by proceeding with the liberalisation of the electricity market to improve the sector’s competitiveness.

Graph 4: Trends in added value for water and electricity in the main regions in million MAD (1998-2007) Source: DSFF figures 2 500 RSZZ

2 000 DA

GC

TT 1 500 MTH SMD

FB 1 000 O

500 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2.2.5. Added Value for Construction and Public Works per Region

The calculation of region-based added value for construction and public works, whose average contribution to GDP is 4.3% during the 1998-2008 period, also uses the

26 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth calibration method26. Nationwide production in the sector is modelled using the following explanatory variables:

• consumption of cement (CC) • floor areas (FA) • estimated value of building (EVB)

The step-by-step linear regression method used for the 1981-2007 period has settled for the optimal model27 with one explanatory variable at a 95% trustworthiness threshold, consumption of cement. This model has an adequation coefficient reaching 97.5%, which has enabled the reconstitution of the actual series of production in construction and public works sector.

Building and public works production = -10589, 028 + 7,685 * CC + ε

Where in ε indicates the error margin due to perturbations not taken into account by the model.

Graph 5: Trends in observed and modelled electricity and water production (1994-2007)

Source: DSFF figures

The calibration method is then applied to reconstitute the regional series of production in the building and public works sector (Pj), which helps estimate, assuming that technical coefficients (TC) do not vary between regions, regional added value in the sector28 (AVj) by deducting intermediate consumption (ICj):

AVj=Pj- ICJ= Pj*(1-TC)

26 See graph 3. 27 See Appendix 6 for detailed results. 28 See detailed results in Appendix 4.

27 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

The Greater Casablanca region registers a 15.7% average share of national added value in the building and public works sector for the 1998-2007 period. The Tangiers- Tetouan region comes second with an average contribution of 11.5%, followed by the Souss-Massa-Draa region with 10.3% and the Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz region with 9.9%.

Graph 6: Breakdown of average region-based added value for the building and public works sector for the 2000-2007 period

Laâyoune - Boujdour - Sakia Taza - Al Hoceïma - Guelmim - Es- Semara El Hamra Taounate 2,5% 1,2% Oued Ed- Dahab- Lagouira 3,4% 0,1% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Tadla - Azilal Hssen 2,2% Grand Casablanca 4,2% 15,7%

Fès - Boulemane 4,2%

Chaouia - Ouardigha Tanger - Tétouan 4,4% 11,5%

Meknès - Tafilalet 6,2% Souss - Massa - Daraa Doukala - Abda 10,3% 6,8% Oriental Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Marrakech - Tensift - Al 8,9% Zaer Haouz 8,7% 9,9%

Source: DSFF figures In terms of growth, the Tangier-Tetouan region has capitalised on the expansion in infrastructure to achieve the highest rate with 17%, followed by the Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz region with 16% and the Chaouia-Ouardigha region with 15%.

Graph 7: Trends in added value for the building and public works sector across the main regions in million MAD (2000-2007)

28 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Source : DSFF figures GC

5 000 TT

MTH 4 000

SMD

O 3 000 RSZZ

DA

2 000 MT

1 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Finally, after measuring region-based added value for all branches of activity in the secondary sector, the sector’s regional added value is calculated29. Thus the Greater Casablanca region achieves the highest average share of national secondary added value during the 2000-2007 period with a contribution of 35.7%. The Tangier-Tetouan region and the Doukkala-Abda region follow with 9.5% and 8.9% respectively. Graph 8: Breakdown of average regional secondary added value (2000-2007)

Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate Guelmim - Es- Semara 1,1% 0,9% Laâyoune - Boujdour - Sakia Tadla - Azilal Oued Ed- Dahab- Lagouira Fès - Boulemane El Hamra 1,2% 0,2% 3,6% 1,2% Oriental Meknès - Tafilalet 4,2% 3,5%

Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen Grand Casablanca 4,5% 35,7%

Souss - Massa - Daraa 5,3%

Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 5,7%

Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer Tanger - Tétouan Doukala - Abda 6,8% 9,5% 8,9% Chaouia - Ouardigha 7,7% Source: DSFF figures

Graph 9: Trends in added value for secondary sector across the main regions in million MAD (2000-2007)

29 See detailed results in Appendix 4.

29 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

18000 Source : DSFF figures GC (échelle droite) 50000

TT 40000 14000 DA

CO 30000

10000 RSZZ MTH 20000 SMD O 6000 MT 10000 FB

GCBH

2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Lasting growth in secondary added value nationwide has impacted trends in regional added value. The most dynamic regions are Laayoune-Boujdour-Sakia El Hamra, Taza-Al Hoceima-Taounate, and Doukkala-Abda, with average annual growth rates of 13%, 11%, and 10% respectively. The Gharb-Chrarda-Beni Hsen region is the only region to have seen a drop of 5%, due to a fall in industrial activity, notably in the refining sector. Table 1 : Map of regional added value in the secondary sector (2007)

Source: DSFF figures

2.3. Region-based added value in the tertiary sector

30 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

In this third part, the top-down method will this time be more suited to the information system of the tertiary sector, as the sector’s fluxes (transport, telecoms, financial activities) do not help retrieve basic information according to region. Thus, estimates of regional added value in the hotel and restaurant sector, as well as in the rest of the tertiary sector, will be based on a distinction between commercial and non-commercial services, before proceeding to actual regional added value in the tertiary sector.

Graph 10: Detailed breakdown of average added value per activity sector in the tertiary sector (1998-2008)

Commerce Activités secondaires 12% 27% Hôtels et restaurants 2% Transports 5% Postes et télécommunications 5% Activités tertiaires Activités financières 58% et assurances 5% Services rendus aux entreprises et services personnels 11% Administration publique générale et Activités primaires sécurité sociale 17% 8% Education, santé et action sociale 8% Source: DSFF figures The tertiary sector accounts on average for 58% of overall added value, over the 1998- 2008 period, mainly comprising trade, services to business as well as personal services, with average contributions of 12% and 11% of overall added value respectively. With a 5% growth rate, the sector has achieved growth exceeding that of GDP over the 1998- 2008 period.

2.3.1. Region-based added value for hotels and restaurants

Existing data for the sector pertains to hotel capacity in number of beds, and occupancy rates and number of nights for star-rated hotels. Thus, the calibration method30 is adopted to calculate added value for hotels and restaurants per region, with an average contribution to GDP of 2% over the 1998-2008 period.

The production in the sector is modelled using the following explanatory variables: • hotel capacity in number of beds (HC) • occupancy rate for star-rated hotels (ORH) • number of nights in star-rated hotels (NH)

30 See Table 3.

31 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

The step-by-step linear regression method used over the 1993-2007 period has retained the optimal model31 with one explanatory variable with a trustworthiness threshold of 95%: number of nights spent in star-rated hotels. The model has an adequation coefficient reaching 77.3%, which helps track the actual series of production in the hotel and restaurant sector. Hotel and restaurant production = -8893, 612 + 0, 02 * Number of nights in star-rated hotels + ε

Wherein ε indicates the margin of error due to perturbations not taken into account by the model.

The calibration method is then used to reconstitute the regional series of production in the hotel and restaurant sector (Pj), which, assuming technical coefficients (TC) do not vary between different regions, helps estimate regional added value in the sector32 (AVj) by deducting intermediate consumption (ICj):

AVj=Pj- ICj = Pj*(1-TC)

Graph 11: Average breakdown of region-based added value in the hotel and restaurant sector for the 1998-2007 period

Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen Doukala-Abda Laâyoune-Boujdour-Sakia 0,4% 0,8% Taza-Al Hoceïma- El Hamra Chaouia-Ouardigha Taounate 0,3% Oued Ed-Dahab-Lagouira 0,2% 0,6% 0,1% Meknès-Tafilalet Tadla-Azilal 2,7% Guelmim-Es-Semara 0,4% 0,2% Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer Oriental 4,3% 0,9% Fès-Boulemane Souss-Massa-Daraa 4,8% 35,4%

Tanger-Tétouan 7,7%

Grand Casablanca 8,1%

Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz Source: DSFF figures 33,2%

The Souss-Massa-Draa and the Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz regions alone account for 68.6% of hotel and restaurant added value, with 35.4% and 33.2% respectively, over the 1998-2007 period. The Greater Casablanca and the Tangier-Tetouan regions are way behind with average contributions of 8.1% and 7.7% respectively.

The implementation of Plan Azur is expected to redraw the tourism map with the optimisation of regional potentials. Morocco is fully aware of the strategic role of the

31 See Appendix 7 for detailed results. 32 See detailed results in Appendix 8.

32 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth tourism sector in promoting sustainable regional development, and in creating economic and social momentum for the benefit of local communities, and has launched an ambitious tourism strategy, “Vision 2010”, since 2001. Such a region-based strategy has helped widen the range of tourism products, hitherto spatially concentrated, notably with the opening in 2009 of Saidia resort in Eastern Morocco and Mazagan in Doukkala-Abda. This strategy will be combined with a prospective vision for the tourism sector by 2020, aimed at promoting solid, specific, diversified, and balanced offers, while heeding the imperatives of sustainable development and environmental protection.

In terms of economic growth, the Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz region, with an annual average growth rate of 12%, has taken the lead nationwide from the Souss-Massa- Draa region, which enjoyed the highest rate prior to 2004 with a 7% annual growth rate over the 1998-2007 period. Moreover, all other regions have enjoyed sustained growth, with the exception of Taza-Al Hoceima-Taounate which suffered a 9% average annual drop. The opening up of the region’s sea resorts with the new Mediterranean ring road, combined with the promotion of eco-tourism in the Rif, could play a significant part in the upgrading of the region. Graph 12: Trends in added value in the main regions for the hotel and restaurant sector in million MAD (1998-2007)

Source : DSFF figures Marrakech - Tensift - 6 000 Al Haouz 3 700 (Echelle droite) 5 500

3 200 5 000

2 700 Souss - Massa - Daraa 4 500 (Echelle droite) 2 200 4 000

1 700 3 500

Grand Casablanca 1 200 3 000 Tanger-Tétouan Fès-Boulemane 700 2 500 Rabat -Salé-Zemmour- Zaer Meknès-Tafilalet 200 2 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2.3.2. Region-based added value for commercial services off hotels and restaurants

As the nature of commercial services off hotels and restaurants, closely linked to flux in transport, telecom, and financial activity, does not allow the retrieval of basic data in region-based form, the bottom-up method based on a breakdown using an allocation key is used to estimate regional added value33 (AVj) for the sector. The active population involved34 (API) is used as an allocation key on the basis of that work productivity is similar in all

33 See detailed results in Appendix 8. 34 Data Existing from 1999 onwards.

33 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth regions. Thus, the breakdown of the active population involved for the services sector (APIj) is applied to the national added value for commercial services barring hotels and restaurants (AV) as follows:

AVj=AV * APIj/API

Graph 13: Average breakdown of region-based added value for commercial services off hotels and restaurants for the 1999-2007 period

Tanger-Tétouan 7%

Taza-Al Houceima- Taounate 3% Souss-Massa-Daraâ 9% Fès-Boulemane Sud 6% 3% Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen Meknès-Tafilalet 5% 6% Chaouia-Ouardigha Tadla-Azilal 5% 4%

Marrakech-Tensift-Al Doukala-Abda Haouz 5% 9%

Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer Oriental 7% 12% Grand-Casablanca 19%

Source : DSFF figures

The Greater Casablanca region has achieved a 19% annual average of national added value for commercial off hotels and restaurants, trailed by Rabat-Sale-Zemmour-Zaer with 12%. The dynamic of the sector covers all regions with a uniform pace of growth of around 7%. This growth highlights a trend whereby regions have integrated services within their productive systems. The creation of technopolises in different regions and areas can only underscore the development of this sector.

2.3.3. Region –based added value in non-traded services

With regard to non-commercial services35, government employees numbers (GE) provided by the National Payroll Centre have been selected as an allocation key.

AVj=AV* GEj/GE

Graph 14: Average breakdown of region-based added value for non-traded services for the 1999-2007 period

35 See detailed results in Appendix 8.

34 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Oued Ed-Dahab - Lagouira Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Tanger - Tétouan 0% Hamra 6% 1% Souss - Massa - Daraa 9% Guelmim - Es-Semara 2% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 5% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 5% Fès - Boulemane 5%

Meknès - Tafilalet Chaouia - Ouardigha 8% 5%

Tadla - Azilal Marrakech - Tensift - Al 4% Haouz 8% Doukala - Abda Oriental 5% 6% Grand Casablanca Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 12% 19%

Source: DSFF figures

Given its status as administrative capital, the Rabat-Sale-Zemmour-Zaer region enjoys a significant share in added value for non-commercial services, with an average share of 19% over the 1999-2007 period, followed by the Greater Casablanca region with 12%. Outside the Rabat-Sale-Zemmour-Zaer region, the breakdown of added value is proportionate to population numbers, in view of the role of the state in providing access to basic services (health, education, security...), with slight variations due to urbanisation levels which differ from one region to another. Public efforts to extend and generalise basic services have resulted in uniform growth of around 7% in regional added value, except in the Oued Ed-Dahab-Lagouira and the Laayoune-Boujdour-Sakia El Hamra regions which enjoyed average annual growth rates of 9% and 8% respectively, over the 1999-2007 period.

Graph 15: Average breakdown of region-based added value for the tertiary sector over the 2000-2007 period

35 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Tadla-Azilal 3,6% Taza-Al Houceima-Taounate 3,7%

Doukala-Abda Sud Grand-Casablanca 4,6% 3,3% 15,6%

Chaouia-Ouardigha 4,8%

Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer 4,9% 13,8%

Fès-Boulemane 5,5%

Oriental 6,6% Sous-Massa-Daraâ 10,1% Meknès-Tafilalet Marrakech-Tensift-Al Houz 6,7% Tanger-Tétouan 9,9% 6,9%

Source: DSFF figures Finally, region-based added value for the tertiary sector was further increased36. The Greater Casablanca region registered the greater average share in tertiary added value over the 2000-2007 period, by making a 15.6% contribution to national tertiary added value, followed by Rabat-Sale-Zemmour-Zaer with 13.8%, Souss-Massa-Draa with 10.1%, and Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz with 9.9%. Graph 16: Trends in added value in the tertiary sector for the main regions in million MAD (2000-2007)

50000 Grand-Casablanca Source : DSFF figures

45000

Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer

40000

35000 Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz

30000 Souss-Massa-Daraâ

25000

Tanger-Tétouan Meknès-Tafilalet 20000 Oriental

Fès-Boulemane 15000

10000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

36 See detailed results in Appendix 8.

36 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Solid growth in tertiary added value nationwide has been sustained at regional level. Southern regions, Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz, and Doukkala-Abda have been the most dynamic, with average annual growth rates of 10%, 9% and 8% respectively.

Table 2 : Map of regional added value for the tertiary sector (2007)

37 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Source: DSFF figures

2.4. Concentration of regional GDP in three regions

Finally, having region-based added value for all sectors of activity, overall region- based added value is consolidated (AVj). By applying the regional breakdown of added value to GDP, region-based GDP37 (GDPj) is calculated as follows:

GDPj= GDP * AVj /AV

Graph 17: Average breakdown of region-based GDP over the 2000-2007 period

37 See detailed results in Appendix 9.

38 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Tadla-Azilal Taza-Al Houceima- 4,2% Taounate Fès-Boulemane 2,7% Grand-Casablanca 4,2% Sud 3,0% 18,8% Meknès-Tafilalet 4,9%

Chaouia-Ouardigha 5,2% Souss-Massa-Daraâ 12,2% Doukala-Abda 5,4% Rabat-Salé-Zemmour- Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Zaer Hssen 9,8% 6,9% Oriental Marrakech-Tensift-Al 7,1% Tanger-Tétouan Haouz 7,4% 8,2%

Source: DFSF figures

The region of Grand Casablanca attained the most important GDP average part during 2000 and 2007 contributing with 19%, followed by the regions of de Souss-Massa- Drâa (12.2%) and of Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer (9.8%); that is 40.8% of national GDP for these three regions; thus reflecting regional GDP concentration

Further, the South regions of Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz and Doukala-Abda have been the most dynamic attaining an average annual growth rate of 9%. By contrast, the decrease in secondary activity has strongly impacted GDP trend in the region of Gharb- Chrarda-Béni Hssen which achieved a mere average of 4% during the same period. Graph 1 : Evolution of region-based GDP in MAD Billions (2000-2007) Source: Calcul DEPF Gr an d Source: Calcul DEPF 35 Doukala-Abda Gharb-Chrarda-Béni 86 Hssen 30 Chaouia-Ouardigha Meknès-Tafilalet 71 So us-M 25 Fès-Boulemane

Tadla-Azilal 56 Rabat-Salé Z 20 Marrakech Sud Ho 41 Tang O 15

Gharb-C Taza-Al Houceima- H 26 10 Taounate Doukala-Abda

11 5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

39 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

The Casablanca region also had the most important GNP per capita, with 30,316 MAD in 2007 followed by the regions of Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer (23,668) and that of Souss-Massa-Drâa (23,454) against only 8,331 MAD for Taza-Al Houceima-Taounate (3.6 times lower than the Greater Casablanca). The regions of Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz and Doukkala-Abda enjoyed the most consistent GNP per capita with an average annual rate of 8%.

By contrast, the evolution of GNP per capita in the regions of Gharb-Chrarda-Beni Hssen and the Greater Casablanca was less outstanding, as it reached during the same period an average of 3% and 4% respectively. The decrease noticed in Greater Casablanca reflects the demographic pressure the region is subjected to, because of its attractiveness resulting from the flow of its business activity and job opportunities, and the extra effort made by other regions to catch up and achieve a homogeneity that sustains wealth creation at the national level.

Graph 2 : Evolution of regional GNP per capita MAD (2000 and 2007)

Sud 30000 National Souss-Massa-Daraâ

Tanger-Tétouan 20000 Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen

Taza-Al Houceima-Taounate 10000 Chaouia-Ouardigha

0 Fès-Boulemane Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz

Meknès-Tafilalet Oriental

2000 Tadla-Azilal Grand-Casablanca 2007 Source: Calcul DEPF Doukala-Abda Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer

The comparison could have been interesting had regional GNP in parity with the purchasing power been taken into account. Nevertheless, data on consumer price index, which could be used as a means for GNP deflation, is available only for some cities and does not cover all regions.

The structure of regional economies seems relatively homogeneous, except for Gharb - Chrarda-Béni Hssen, the Eastern region, Souss - Massa - Draâ and Tadla – Azilal, in which the primary sector is overrepresented38 in comparison to the national level. In addition, the regions of the Greater Casablanca, Doukkala - Abda and that of Chaouia – Ouardigha have an overrepresented secondary sector, which is a specificity of these regions

Graph 3 : Breakdown of regional GNP (2000 and 2007)

38 Measured by specificity sector-based index which is calculated in relation to the sector’s prominence in a given region to the prominence of the same sector at the national level. An index below 100 means that the sector is underrepresented in the region in relation to the national level., while an index above 100 means that the sector is overrepresented.

40 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

VA p rimaire VA secondaire VA tertiaire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

z l l e en u a ca da n n Sud s gha nt n b zila a i Ho la nate ional rie b -A -A ou tou t ard O a ur-Zaer la é sa-Daraâ u s dla Na s mo ka a a-Ta r-T a -O sift-Al -Ca m T nès-Tafilalet ou k m nge uia nd -Ze D Fès-Boulemaei ra é Me c Ta hao G al Sous-M C S ech-Ten t- l Hou rb-Chrarda-Béni Hs k a rra aba Gh R aza-A Ma T Source: DSFF figures Figure 3 : GNP map and GNP per capita map at the regional level (2007)

Source : DSFF figures

These results have been confirmed by sector-based regional added value analysis39. This analysis has helped produce a classification of regions according to their similarities and,

39 Principal Component Analysis (PCA).

41 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth while charting the evolution of their structure between 200040 and 2007, by producing a synthesis report based on a significant part of available data (62.3%). This synthesis is a reference to anticipate any mutation of the local productive apparatus.

The report presents regions from left to right according to the significance of added value in industry, energy, public works and civil engineering, and services from hotels and restaurants. Regions, on the left, have a relatively more significant mining industry activity. Further, the report presents the regions from bottom to top according to the significance of added value in agriculture, fishing, and the hotels and restaurants sector.

Graph 4 : Synthesis report on regional added value by sector 2007

Source: DSFF figures

Hence, in 2000, the region segmentation according to similarities and added value breakdown by sector showed significant homogeneity of their economies by highlighting five groups, three of which are mono-regional.

• The Greater Casablanca, whose position is traced to the performance of its tertiary and secondary activity, • Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer, whose position is traced to the performance in Public Works and Civil Engineering and nontrade services, • Souss-Massa-Draa, a diversified economy articulated around the primary sector and product transformation services, as well as the hotel and restaurant sector. • Tangier-Tetouan, Fès-Boulemane, Meknes-Tafilalet, Marrakech-Tensift-Alhaouz, Gharb Chrarda-Benihssen, Doukkala-Abda, and the Eastern region, have a similar structure at the national level with no particular specificity.

40 The analysis of the year 2000 was somehow benchmarked with that 2007 in view of tracing the evolution of regional added value structure.

42 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

• Chaouia-Ouardigha, Taza-Alhoceima-Taounate, Tadla – Azilal and regions of the South (Guelmim-Essemara, Laayoune-Boujdour-Sakia Hamra and Oued-ed-Dahab-Lagouira), which are slightly behind as a result of the significance of the mining industry sector in their added value.

Graph 5 : Trends in the breakdown of regional added value by sector between 2000 and 2007 Source: DSFF figures Source: DSFF figures 2000 2007

This classification was modified over the whole period to achieve a less concentrated segmentation in 2007. Hence, the gap between the region of the Greater Casablanca and the other regions was less significant, which testifies to the effort deployed by public authorities in the implementation of region-based and sector-based reforms.

The region’s setback is also due to the adjustment of certain industrial activities towards adjacent regions such as those of Doukkala-Abda, Chaouia-Ouardigha and Rabat- Salé-Zemmour-Zaer, to improve their position on the national economic map. This industrial decentralization could lessen the pressure on equipment and infrastructure in the Greater Casablanca region, to fine tune the region’s metropolitan functions, gearing these towards activity sectors such as electric and electronic industries. In addition, this could also allow the region to carry out successfully the mutation of its productive system towards the tertiary sector, notably services provided to enterprises and to financial activities; hence, maintaining its position as the first financial and commercial centre nationwide, and aspiring to play a more significant role at the continental level.

The fourth group has been divided into three sub-groups after the significant shift in the economies of Marrakech-Tensift-Alhaouz, Tangier-Tetouan, Gharb-Chrarda-Benihssen, Doukkala-Abda, and the Eastern region. The last four regions form a separate group, with

43 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth the Tangier-Tetouan region taking the lead. The significant evolution of the Tangier-Tetouan region is related to the effort made to become a new industrial and commercial platform in the country. The dynamism that the region has enjoyed could help neighboring regions, like the role played by the Greater Casablanca region in central Morocco.

The Marrakech-Tensift-Alhaouz region has improved its position by joining the Souss-Massa-Draa group, benefiting from the emergence of the secondary sector driven by the gradual development of the primary sector, following the water resources development and the reorientation of its primary productive apparatus towards with high added value industrial speculations. This evolution also testifies to profitable tertiary activities, resulting from an increase in tourism, making the region the first tourist destination before Souss- Massa-Draa.

The development of regional economies could have been better carried out if studies had been done over a longer period, to harness mid-term effects of established regional policies. Nonetheless, the period studied is sufficient to analyse the evolution of regions over time, and the changes that have occurred since 2000.

Conclusion

During the 2000-2007 period, four regions contributed to the creation of national wealth: the Greater Casablanca (18, 8%), Souss-Massa-Drâa (12, 2%), Rabat-Salé-Zemmour- Zaer (9, 8%) and Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz (8, 2%). However, this concentration tended to decrease over this period with differentiated growth rates. The Greater Casablanca had one of the lowest growth rate (5, 5%). This high spatial concentration is combined with greater sector-based concentration. Half the national primary added value, for example, is concentrated in the regions of Souss-Massa-Drâa (32%) and Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen (18%).

As to national secondary activity, more than half of wealth creation is attributed to three regions in the kingdom: the Greater Casablanca (36%), Tangier-Tetouan (9, 5%) and Doukkala-Abda (8, 9%). By contrast, this concentration is less noticeable for the tertiary sector, as the first four regions contribute to at least half of national tertiary activity: the Greater Casablanca (15, 6%), Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer (13, 8%), Souss-Massa-Drâa (10, 1%) and Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz (9, 9%). This distribution is related to the potentials and assets of the regions, as well as to their demographic structures and economic liabilities.

The regions’ disparities in relation to their contribution to national GDP are also felt in GDP per capita. Hence, the Greater Casablanca GDP per capita is on average 3.6 times higher than Taza-Al Houceima-Taounate, with 25,918 and 7,257 MAD respectively during 2000-2007. Nevertheless, compared to the national level, only the regions of Taza-Al Houceima-Taounate and Meknès-Tafilelt (11.464 MAD) achieved a GDP per capita lower than 75%, which reached an average of 16,562 MAD for the same period.

Interregional disparities in GDP per capita tend to diminish if we take into account differentiated average annual growth. The evolution of GDP per capita of the Greater Casablanca was limited to 4% between 2000-2007, against 6% at the national level. This decrease reflects the slowdown of the region’s productive apparatus, in the face demographic pressure and the extra effort that other regions made to reduce interregional inequality.

44 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Regional GDP per capita seems to be correlated with poverty rates in the sense that the poorer a region, the weaker its GDP per capita, except for the regions of Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen, the Eastern region and Souss - Massa – Draâ, where poverty rates are higher despite significant GDP per capita. This is mainly due to overrepresentation of the primary sector in these regions.

The link between poverty rates and GDP per capita attests to the relevance of GDP per capita in measuring local population wealth, and its importance as a tool in interregional disparity analysis. Consequently, this index could be very useful to index a system of integral equalization adjustment, and to consolidate decentralization processes and upgrade regional socio-economic fabric.

Graph6 : Poverty rate and GDP per capita of Morocco’s economic regions (2004)

Source: DSFF figures

In addition, the analysis has brought to light regional sector-based specialization, given that the contribution of the different sectors to regional GDP differs from one region to the other. Hence, Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen, the Eastern region, Souss - Massa - Drâa and Tadla – Azilal regions, have witnessed an overrepresentation of the primary sector in comparison to the national level, while the Greater Casablanca, Doukkala - Abda and Chaouia – Ouardigha have had an overrepresentation of the secondary sector, a specificity of these regions.

45 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Bibliography • Adeline Béoutis, Hélène Casset-Hervio et Élodie Leprevost, " Les produits intérieurs bruts régionaux en 2003 Forte concentration spatiale et dynamismes contrastés ", Insee Décembre 2005.

• André Lemelin et Pierre Mainguy, " Revue des méthodes d’estimation du produit intérieur brut régional ", Cahier technique et méthodologique, Institut de la Statistique du Québec, Février 2009.

• André Lemelin et Pierre Mainguy, "Estimation du produit intérieur brut régional des 17 régions administratives du Québec", Cahier technique et méthodologique, Institut de la Statistique du Québec, Mars 2009.

• " Des indicateurs régionaux de développement humain dans le Nord - Pas de Calais et en Wallonie ", Etudes Prospectives Régionales n°10, Juin 2006.

• F.Carlevaro, "Régionalisation d'agrégats nationaux au moyen d'indicateurs : une méthode économétrique", dans B.Guesnier et J.H.P.Paelinck, Modélisation spatiale : Théorie et applications, Institut de Maths Economiques et Université de Dijon, 1987.

• Jean Ousset et Michel Negre, " Des comptes nationaux au comptes regionaux L'exemple des comptes de l'Agriculture " Revue économique, Sciences Po University Press, Vol. 24, No. 4, Juillet 1973.

• J.P.DELISLE, avec la participation de C. LELONG et A. KIRTHICHANDRA, " Méthode de calcul des valeurs ajoutées régionales par industrie et des PIB régionaux. SEC 1995, années de base 1994-1996 ", INSEE, novembre 2000.

46 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

• LIEW, L.H. " Tops-down" versus "Bottoms-up" approaches to regional modeling ", Journal of Policy Modeling, 1984.

• Olivier FROUTÉ et Benoit MASSUYEAU, " Évaluation du PIB à Mayotte ", Document de Travail CEROM n°1, Mai 2005.

• "Produit intérieur brut régional par industrie au Québec", Institut de la Statistique du Québec, 2006.

• "Spécialisation et concentration industrielles : Atouts et vulnérabilités des secteurs et des régions", DEPF, Ministère de l'Economie et des Finances, Juin 2009.

• Vincenzo Spiezia, " Mesurer les économies régionales ", Cahiers Statistiques, OCDE, février 2004.

47 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Figure List

Diagram 1 : Map of regional added value of primary sector (2007) Erreur ! Signet non défini. Diagram 2 : Map of regional added value of secondary sector (2007)...... 30 Diagram 3 : Map of regional added value of tertiary sector (2007)...... 37 Diagram 4 : Map of GDP and GDP per capita at the regional level (2007)...... 41 Diagram 5 : Evaluation method of regional GDP in France ...... 51

48 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Graph List Graph 1 : Average breakdown of added value for the primary sector per detailed activity (1998- 2008)...... 10 Graph 2 : Observed and modeled Farming production trend (1994-2007) Erreur ! Signet non défini.11 Graph 3 : Average breakdown in added value of region-based farming (1998-2007) Erreur ! Signet non défini. Graph 4 : Trends in added value for farming in the main regions in million MAD (1998-2007)Erreur ! Signet non Graph 5 : Average breakdown of region-based added value for fishing, aquaculture in million MAD for the period 1998-2007...... Erreur ! Signet non défini.14 Graph 6 : Trends in added value for the fishing and aquaculture sectors in the main regions in million MAD (1998-2007)...... Erreur ! Signet non défini.14 Graph 7 : Average breakdown of Priamry region-based added value 1998-2007Erreur ! Signet non défini.15 Graph 8 : Trends in added value for the primary sector in the main regions in million MAD (1998-2007)...... 175 Graph 9 : Average breakdown of added value for secondary sector per detailed activity (1998- 2008)...... Erreur ! Signet non défini.16 Graph 10 : Average breakdowne of added value of region-based mining industry over the period 1998-2007...... Erreur ! Signet non défini.18 Graph 11 : Trends in added value for the mining industry sector in the main regions in million MAD (1998-2007)...... Erreur ! Signet non défini.18 Graph 12 : Average breakdown added value for the region-based processing industry over the period 1998-2007...... Erreur ! Signet non défini.19 Graph 13 : Trends in added value for the processing industry sector in the main regions in million MAD (1998-2007)...... Erreur ! Signet non défini.20 Graph 14 :Trends in added value for oil refinieries and other energy products in the main regions in million MAD (1998-2007)...... Erreur ! Signet non défini.21 Graph 15 : Trends for observed and modeled water and electricity production (1994-2007)...... 252 Graph 16 : Average breakdown of dded value for region-based electricity and water over the period of 1998-2007...... 253 Graph 17 : Trends in added value for water and electricity in the main regions in million MAD (1998-2007)...... 263 Graph 18 : Trends for observed and modeled water and electricity production (1994-2007)...... 274 Graph 19 : Average breakdown of added value in region-based construction works and civil engineering sector over the period 2000-2007 ...... 285 Graph 20 : Trends in added value for construction works and civil engineering in the main regions in million MAD (2000-2007)...... 285 Graph 21 : Average breakdown of added value for region-based secondary sector in million MAD 2000-2007...... 296 Graph 22 : Treands of added value for the secondary sector in the main regions in million MAD (2000-2007)………………………………………Erreur ! Signet non défini.26 Graph 23 : Average breakdown of added value by retail activity for the tertiary sector (1998 2008) 3128 Graph 24 : Average breakdown of added value in region-based restaurant and hotel industry over the period 1998-2007 ...... 3229 Graph 25 : Trends in added value in the main regions in restaurant and hotel industry in million MAD (1998-2007)...... 3330

49 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Graph 26 : Average breakdown of added value in off-hotel and restaurant over the period 1999-2007...... 341 Graph 27 : Average breakdown of added value for region-based non-tradeed services over the period 1999-2007...... 342 Graph 28 : Average breakdown of added value for region-based tertiary sector over the period 2000-2007 ...... 353 Graph 29 : Trends in added value for the tertiary sector in the main regions in the tertiary sector in million MAD (2000-2007)...... Erreur ! Signet non défini.1 Graph 30 : Average breakdown of region-based GNP over the period 2000-2007 ...... 3835 Graph 31 : Trends in GNP by regions in billion MAD (2000-2007) ...... 3935 Graph 32 : Trends in GNP per capita in MAD (2000 et 2007)...... 406 Graph 33 : breakdown of regional GNP (2000 et 2007) ...... 407 Graph 34 : synthesis plan for regional added value per sector 2007...... 4238 Graph 35 : Trends in region-based added value strucutre per sector between 2000 and 2007Erreur ! Signet non d Graph 36 : Poverty rate and GNP per capita of Morocco’s economic regions (2004) ...... 452

List of tables Table 1 : Region-based added value for agricuture at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) ...... 54 Table 2 : Region-based added value for fishing and aquaculture at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) ...... 54 Table 3 : Region-based added value for the primary sector at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)...... 55 Table 4 : Region-based added value for the mining industry at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in millions MAD) ...... 56 Table 5 : Region-based added value for the processing industry at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) ...... 56 Table 6 : Region-based added value for oil refinery and other oil product at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)...... 57 Table 7 : Region-based added value for water and electricity at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)...... 57 Table 8 : Region-based added value for constructuion works and civil engineering at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)...... 57 Table 9 : Region-based added value for the secondary sector at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)...... 58 Table 10 : Region-based added value for the hotel and rstaurant sector at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)...... 62 Table 11 : Region-based added value for commercially traded services for the hotel and restaurant sector at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) ...... 63 Table 12 : Region-based added value for non-traded services at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)...... 63 Table 13 : Region-based added value for the tertiary sector at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)...... 64 Table 14 : Region-based GNP at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) ...... 65 Table 15 : Region-based GNP per capita at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)...... 65

50 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Annex s

Annex 1 : Estimation method of regional GNP in France Figure 4 : Estimation method of regional GNP in France

51 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Annex 2 : detailed results of modeled farming production Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a sample

Farming Production

N 14

Normal parametersa Average 8,56010305590295E4

Standard deviation 1,304827103316735E4

The most extremes Absolute ,139 differences Positive ,139

Negative -,103

Kolmogorov-Smirnov’s Z ,522

Asymptotic significance (bilateral) ,948 a. The distribution to test is Gaussian

Model’s summary report

Estimate’s Model R R-two R-two adjusted standard error Durbin-Watson

1 8,677867375232 ,769a ,592 ,558 641E3

2 5,954189046118 ,908b ,824 ,792 660E3

3 3,614365167180 ,970c ,941 ,923 1,439 422E3 a. Estimated values: (constants), livestock size b. Estimated values: (constants), livestock size, cereal crop Production c. Estimated values: (constants), livestock size , cereal crop Production, Citrus area d. Passive variable : farming production

ANOVAd

52 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Model Sum of squares ddl Average square F significance

1 Regression 1,310E9 1 1,310E9 17,392 ,001a

scrap 9,037E8 12 7,531E7

Total 2,213E9 13

2 Regression 1,823E9 2 9,117E8 25,716 ,000b

scrap 3,900E8 11 3,545E7

Total 2,213E9 13

3 Regression 2,083E9 3 6,942E8 53,143 ,000c

scrap 1,306E8 10 1,306E7

Total 2,213E9 13 a. Estimated values: (constants), livestock size b. Estimated values: (constants), livestock size, cereal crop Production c. Estimated values: (constants), livestock size l, cereal crop Production, Citrus area d. Passive variable : farming production

Coefficients

Standardized Non-standardized coefficient coefficient

Models B Standard error Beta t Significance

1 (constant) -66929,490 36648,679 -1,826 ,093

Livestock size 6,799 1,630 ,769 4,170 ,001

2 (constant) -66539,798 25146,152 -2,646 ,023

Livestock size 6,225 1,129 ,704 5,515 ,000

Cereal crop production ,218 ,057 ,486 3,807 ,003

3 (constant) -135452,725 21730,684 -6,233 ,000

Livestock size 4,625 ,774 ,523 5,979 ,000

Cereal crop production ,235 ,035 ,524 6,722 ,000

Citrus area 1,358 ,305 ,387 4,456 ,001 a. Passive variable : farming production

53 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Annex 3 : Region-based added value for the primary sector between 1998 and 2007 Table 1 : Region-based added value for farming at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate Guelmim - Es-Semara 42 12 45 28 29 59 72 92 159 83 8% Souss - Massa - Daraâ 20143 19332 14700 17741 18742 19775 19753 19477 25399 24725 2% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 14959 11574 9423 12644 13220 14027 14015 12198 13865 12117 -2% Chaouia - Ouardigha 1780 511 930 517 766 1875 1784 866 3070 640 -11% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 4305 3058 3169 3051 3481 4642 5137 4295 6806 5224 2% The eastern region 8701 8007 6893 8846 9338 10223 10054 9689 11316 10599 2% Grand Casablanca 131 47 67 55 53 107 131 73 202 43 -12% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 685 204 402 296 274 810 795 555 1165 304 -9% Doukkala - Abda 1105 576 823 558 844 1640 1754 813 2585 558 -7% Tadla - Azilal 7665 5589 5690 7287 7629 8517 8558 8040 9582 8797 2% Meknès - Tafilalet 896 280 656 573 625 1311 1302 837 1739 740 -2% Fès - Boulemane 540 115 375 266 225 722 686 585 1287 323 -5% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 1070 257 700 731 588 1336 1412 844 2129 496 -8% Tangier - Tetouan 2164 6249 2619 3332 3331 3716 3580 4567 1841 4066 7% National 64186 55811 46492 55925 59146 68759 69034 62932 81147 68716 1% Source: DSFF figures. Table 2: Region-based added value for the fishing and aquaculture sector at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate Oued Ed-Dahab - Lagouira 164 216 259 294 841 535 539 683 881 664 17% Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra 437 436 444 733 1199 897 842 864 804 859 8% Guelmim - Es-Semara 643 639 846 1100 682 540 507 899 821 772 2% Souss - Massa - Daraâ 2454 2237 3125 3385 2353 1702 1481 2673 2248 2208 -1% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 44 40 53 59 30 26 35 31 47 69 5% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 37 28 35 53 69 88 79 66 77 75 8% The eastern region 97 85 93 112 126 150 196 132 136 118 2% Grand Casablanca 167 142 141 161 247 407 551 456 413 445 12% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 5 5 4 9 12 17 26 21 2 11 9% Doukkala - Abda 146 128 111 132 128 219 188 160 195 212 4% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 65 74 79 73 89 80 85 98 106 133 8% Tangier - Tetouan 476 447 560 640 534 513 568 550 605 645 3% National 4731 4478 5749 6752 6311 5174 5097 6633 6335 6212 3% Source: DSFF figures

54 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Table 2: Region-based added value for the primary sector at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) Taux de croissance 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 annuel moyen Oued Ed-Dahab - Lagouira 164 216 259 294 841 535 539 683 881 664 17% Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra 437 436 444 733 1199 897 842 864 804 859 8% Guelmim - Es-Semara 684 651 891 1129 711 599 578 991 980 855 3% Souss - Massa - Daraâ 22597 21569 17824 21126 21095 21476 21234 22150 27647 26934 2% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 15003 11615 9476 12703 13250 14053 14050 12229 13912 12186 -2% Chaouia - Ouardigha 1780 511 930 517 766 1875 1784 866 3070 640 -11% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 4343 3086 3204 3104 3551 4730 5216 4361 6883 5299 2% The eastern region 8797 8093 6985 8958 9463 10372 10250 9821 11453 10718 2% Grand Casablanca 298 189 207 216 300 514 682 529 615 488 6% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 685 209 406 305 286 827 821 576 1168 314 -8% Doukkala - Abda 1251 704 934 689 972 1859 1942 973 2780 770 -5% Tadla - Azilal 7665 5589 5690 7287 7629 8517 8558 8040 9582 8797 2% Meknès - Tafilalet 896 280 656 573 625 1311 1302 837 1739 740 -2% Fès - Boulemane 540 115 375 266 225 722 686 585 1287 323 -6% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 1135 331 779 804 677 1416 1498 942 2235 629 -6% Tangier - Tetouan 2640 6696 3180 3973 3865 4230 4148 5117 2446 4712 7% National 68917 60289 52241 62677 65457 73933 74131 69565 87482 74928 1% Source: DSFF figures.

55 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Annex 4 : Region-based added value for the secondary sector between 1998 and 2007 Table 2 : Region-based added value for the mining industry at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate Oued Ed-Dahab - Lagouira 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 -34% Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra 578 657 770 718 645 481 609 842 1014 1264 9% Guelmim - Es-Semara 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 4 5 51% Souss - Massa - Daraâ 48 53 47 22 40 4 45 23 14 58 2% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 3 1 1 2 3 2 1 0 4 5 8% Chaouia - Ouardigha 4784 5048 4903 5570 5318 4937 4974 5307 5590 7134 5% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 1583 1521 1370 1254 1171 1152 1262 1293 2033 2147 3% The eastern region 30 31 31 34 32 32 41 91 134 182 22% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 234 207 78 123 135 79 99 140 116 132 -6% Doukkala - Abda 817 889 1029 989 941 978 865 1097 1238 1670 8% Tadla - Azilal 138 138 133 134 83 0 1 0 11 10 -25% Meknès - Tafilalet 89 102 112 116 118 148 210 165 366 513 21% Fès - Boulemane 91 5 4 5 5 4 3 5 6 26 -13% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 2 4 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 -40% Tangier - Tetouan 1 1 3 3 4 2 4 32 4 10 27% National 8400 8659 8484 8973 8501 7822 8116 8994 10534 13155 5% Source: DSFF figures. Table 5: Region-based added value for the processing industry at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate Oued Ed-Dahab - Lagouira 55 64 152 207 193 169 135 108 117 155 12% Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra 15 78 75 104 124 286 257 184 207 794 55% Guelmim - Es-Semara 300 356 321 342 322 395 367 338 124 226 -3% Souss - Massa - Daraâ 2358 2532 2863 2211 2717 2985 2651 2349 2458 3121 3% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 2824 2793 3159 2645 3819 2758 4074 5061 5263 1326 -8% Chaouia - Ouardigha 1959 1962 1892 2088 1980 2491 2797 2481 2928 3167 5% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 1857 1698 1585 1661 1748 2127 1864 1615 1899 2111 1% The eastern region 1554 1471 1637 1641 1332 2453 2197 1992 1748 2567 6% Grand Casablanca 31014 32765 31599 33516 33721 37052 41076 40818 40842 40967 3% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 3057 2900 2806 3079 3248 3881 4042 3552 3931 4167 4% Doukkala - Abda 5665 6284 5055 5515 5766 6424 5230 5206 7831 10541 7% Tadla - Azilal 381 332 316 284 245 537 599 483 162 378 0% Meknès - Tafilalet 1582 1538 1683 1650 1810 1746 1764 1780 1462 2117 3% Fès - Boulemane 2061 2155 2159 1324 1909 2795 2927 2290 2345 3039 4% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 182 193 204 241 238 280 302 258 335 261 4% Tangier - Tetouan 4070 4786 5538 5219 5832 7167 8333 8650 9550 7137 6% National 58933 61906 61046 61728 65003 73547 78616 77166 81202 82074 4% Source: DSFF figures.

56 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Table 6: Region-based added value for oil refinery and other energy products at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen 395 303 603 326 255 96 194 297 259 168 -9% Grand Casablanca 1580 1214 2414 1306 1018 383 775 1187 1037 673 -9% National 1975 1517 3017 1632 1273 479 969 1484 1296 841 -9% Source: DSFF figures. Table 3 : Region-based added value for water and electricity at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate Oued Ed- Dahab- Lagouira 25 26 25 26 26 30 34 42 41 43 6% Laâyoune - Boujdour – S. El Hamra 72 87 111 110 121 128 134 170 186 214 13% Guelmim - Es- Semara 90 95 99 101 106 129 137 151 150 158 6% Souss - Massa - Daraa 678 713 785 777 825 977 1003 1152 1188 1302 8% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 645 642 660 572 545 637 587 692 709 769 2% Chaouia - Ouardigha 259 287 305 300 347 409 414 473 514 592 10% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 846 863 948 921 961 1112 1119 1268 1280 1371 6% The eastern region 593 640 650 656 700 793 818 911 921 990 6% Grand Casablanca 651 760 899 897 1042 1248 1218 1492 1566 1742 12% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 2254 2187 2223 2244 2297 2419 2400 2524 2420 2464 1% Doukkala - Abda 1339 1361 1369 1340 1348 1550 1545 1666 1746 1965 4% Tadla - Azilal 376 379 379 369 378 418 415 479 468 487 3% Meknès - Tafilalet 472 529 593 572 596 636 612 746 730 760 5% Fès - Boulemane 795 861 868 847 874 955 897 982 971 1017 3% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 151 155 165 172 211 262 261 293 299 324 9% Tangier - Tetouan 1216 1237 1289 1290 1352 1485 1452 1540 1499 1551 3% National 10461 10823 11368 11192 11731 13191 13047 14583 14687 15749 5% Source: DSFF figures.

Table 8: Region-based added value for public works and civil engineering at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)

57 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Average 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 annual growth rate Oued Ed- Dahab- Lagouira 65 2 73 97 Laâyoune - Boujdour - Sakia El Hamra 239 229 342 347 348 361 316 498 11% Guelmim - Es- Semara 471 607 585 699 834 771 720 659 5% Souss - Massa - Daraa 1876 2224 2154 2507 2801 3351 3515 3835 11% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 731 925 983 1087 1287 1270 1278 1426 10% Chaouia - Ouardigha 667 828 952 1107 1380 1405 1354 1755 15% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 1482 1667 1746 2138 2786 3570 3682 4134 16% The eastern region 1595 1867 2066 2145 2674 2749 2891 3135 10% Grand Casablanca 2950 3450 3595 3977 4468 4955 4757 5581 10% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 1857 1964 1864 2105 2438 2581 2827 3000 7% Doukkala - Abda 1093 1391 1460 1644 1949 2034 2407 2597 13% Tadla - Azilal 567 644 574 567 497 509 514 757 4% Meknès - Tafilalet 1140 1227 1307 1558 1961 1931 1997 2205 10% Fès - Boulemane 1010 1111 1074 1098 1256 1132 1168 1241 3% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 496 618 744 841 1067 1140 1072 1239 14% Tangier - Tetouan 1658 2056 2233 2558 3073 3762 4342 5075 17% National 17830 20875 21681 24379 28822 31522 32912 37233 11% Source: DSFF figures. Table 4 : Region-based added value for the secondary sector at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate Oued Ed- Dahab- Lagouira 178 298 222 199 171 150 231 294 7% Laâyoune - Boujdour - Sakia El Hamra 1194 1160 1231 1242 1349 1558 1722 2769 13% Guelmim - Es- Semara 891 1052 1016 1224 1338 1260 997 1048 2% Souss - Massa - Daraa 5570 5234 5737 6473 6501 6876 7175 8316 6% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 5154 4470 5605 4579 6143 7319 7512 3694 -5% Chaouia - Ouardigha 7767 8786 8596 8944 9565 9667 10387 12648 7% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 5386 5504 5626 6529 7031 7747 8893 9763 9% The eastern region 3913 4198 4131 5423 5731 5742 5694 6873 8% Grand Casablanca 37862 39169 39376 42661 47537 48453 48202 48963 4% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 6963 7410 7544 8485 8980 8797 9294 9763 5% Doukkala - Abda 8546 9235 9516 10597 9590 10004 13222 16774 10% Tadla - Azilal 1395 1431 1280 1523 1512 1470 1156 1632 2% Meknès - Tafilalet 3528 3564 3831 4087 4547 4622 4555 5595 7% Fès - Boulemane 4042 3287 3862 4853 5084 4410 4490 5324 4% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 867 1034 1196 1385 1630 1691 1706 1823 11% Tangier - Tetouan 8488 8569 9421 11213 12862 13984 15394 13773 7% National 101745 104400 108189 119418 129570 133749 140631 149052 6% Source: DSFF figures.

58 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Annex 5 : Detailed results for modeled water and electricity production Model’s summary reportc

Estimate’s Model R R-two R-two adjusted standard error Durbin-Watson

1 ,992a ,985 ,983 561,196

2 ,996b ,992 ,991 414,457 2,030 a. Estimated values : (constants), electricity sales b. Estimated values : (constants), electricity sales, water production (ONEP) c. Estimated values : (constants), electricity and water production at list price (in million MAD)

ANOVAc

Sum of unit Average unit Model squares ddl square F significance

1 Regression 2,404E8 1 2,404E8 763,190 ,000a

Scrap 3779288,901 12 314940,742

Total 2,441E8 13

2 Regression 2,422E8 2 1,211E8 705,138 ,000b

Scrap 1889518,295 11 171774,390

Total 2,441E8 13 a. Estimated values : (constants), electricity sales b. Estimated values : (constants), electricity sales, water production (ONEP) c. Estimated values : (constants), electricity and water production at list price (in million MAD)

Coefficients

Standardized Non-standardized coefficients coefficient

Model B Standard error Beta t Signification

1 (constant) 552,155 614,095 ,899 ,386

Electricity sales 1,187 ,043 ,992 27,626 ,000

2 (constant) -6654,993 2219,717 -2,998 ,012

Electricity sales ,865 ,102 ,723 8,475 ,000

Water production ( ONEP) ,017 ,005 ,283 3,317 ,007

59 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Coefficients

Standardized Non-standardized coefficients coefficient

Model B Standard error Beta t Signification

1 (constant) 552,155 614,095 ,899 ,386

Electricity sales 1,187 ,043 ,992 27,626 ,000

2 (constant) -6654,993 2219,717 -2,998 ,012

Electricity sales ,865 ,102 ,723 8,475 ,000

Water production ( ONEP) ,017 ,005 ,283 3,317 ,007

a. Passive variable : electricity and water production at list price (in million MAD)

Annex 6 : Detailed results for modeled public works and civil engineering production

Estimate’s Model R R-two R-two adjusted standard error Durbin-Watson

1 ,988a ,976 ,975 3,127718961915 ,458 666E3 a. Estimated values : (constants), cement sales b. Passive variable : public works and civil engineering production

60 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

ANOVAb

Sum of unit Model squares ddl Average square F Significance

1 Regression 1,003E10 1 1,003E10 1025,182 ,000a

Scrap 2,446E8 25 9782625,905

Total 1,027E10 26 a. Estimated values : (constants), cement sales b. Passive variable : public works and civil engineering production

Coefficientsa

Standardised Non-standardised coefficient coefficient

Model A Standard error Beta t Significance.

1 (Constant) -10589,028 1682,758 -6,293 ,000

Cement sales 7,685 ,240 ,988 32,018 ,000 a. Passive variable : public works and civil engineering Production

Annex 7 : Detailed results for modeled hotel and restaurant production Model’s summary reportb

Estimate’s Model R R-two R-two adjusted standard error Durbin-Watson

1 ,889a ,790 ,773 2232,659 ,416 a. Estimated values : (constants), bed nights in star rated hotels b. Passive Variable: hotel and restaurant production

ANOVAb

61 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Sum of unit Model squares ddl Average square F Significance

1 Regression 2,431E8 1 2,431E8 48,774 ,000a

scrap 6,480E7 13 4984765,668

Total 3,079E8 14 a. Estimated values : (constants), bed nights in star rated hotels b. Passive Variable: hotel and restaurant production

Coefficientsa

Standardised Non-standardised Coefficients coefficients

Model B Standard error Beta t Significance

1 (constant) -8893,612 3596,020 -2,473 ,028

Bed nights in star rated ,002 ,000 ,889 6,984 ,000 hotels a. Passive variable: hotel and restaurant production

Annex 8 : Region-based added value for the tertiary sector between 1998 and 2007 Table 5 : Region-based added value for hotels and restaurants at list price between 1998 and 2007 (in million MAD)

62 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Average annual 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate Oued Ed-Dahab-Lagouira 6 6 8 15 15 19 27% Laâyoune-Boujdour-Sakia El Hamra 21 18 60 56 28 25 26 30 5% Guelmim-Es-Semara 11 12 12 14 21 24 20 24 12% Souss-Massa-Daraa 3449 3525 3299 3561 4000 4428 4626 5475 7% Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen 39 42 40 41 43 52 57 67 8% Chaouia-Ouardigha 20 23 28 22 23 32 28 42 11% Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz 2609 2771 2894 3059 3630 4683 4785 5937 12% The eastern region 75 74 84 104 100 110 110 146 10% Grand Casablanca 776 775 846 826 868 962 1008 1311 8% Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer 392 457 437 448 448 519 540 692 8% Doukkala-Abda 61 64 64 70 75 103 107 142 13% Tadla-Azilal 38 43 35 39 40 53 57 71 9% Meknès-Tafilalet 267 300 279 280 292 340 336 410 6% Fès-Boulemane 512 499 487 467 533 606 579 738 5% Taza-Al Hoceïma-Taounate 113 110 85 34 46 42 47 58 -9% Tangier-Tetouan 701 739 803 887 875 969 924 1131 7% National 9084 9452 9459 9916 11030 12963 13265 16294 9% Source: SDFF figures. Table 6 : Region-based added value for non-traded services off hotels and restaurants at list price between 1999 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate South 3417 3312 3597 3886 3844 4812 5036 5786 6316 8% Souss-Massa-Daraâ 10234 10411 10924 11354 12772 13642 14088 14612 16077 6% Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen 5715 6228 6619 7219 7310 8091 8302 9028 10769 8% Chaouia-Ouardigha 6172 6238 6399 7246 7223 7779 8002 8502 9911 6% Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz 9468 10473 11067 11556 12330 13825 14843 15582 19499 9% The eastern region 7995 8429 9415 10078 10112 10962 11448 12769 14009 7% Grand-Casablanca 21464 23000 23995 26353 26196 28284 31374 33910 38121 7% Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer 14255 14629 15821 17095 17428 18071 18510 21288 23584 6% Doukkala-Abda 5916 5842 6051 6357 6899 7066 7594 9397 10442 7% Tadla-Azilal 4362 4498 5024 4994 5439 5843 5841 6171 6744 6% Meknès-Tafilalet 7902 7720 8197 8659 9607 9998 10307 10816 12527 6% Fès-Boulemane 6615 7106 7000 7493 8136 8320 9274 9741 11601 7% Taza-Al Houceima-Taounate 3637 3942 3865 4264 4837 4919 5495 5425 5482 5% Tangier-Tetouan 8220 8222 9612 10413 10282 10054 11504 12883 14154 7% National 115371 120050 127586 136967 142414 151666 161618 175909 199238 7% Source: SDFF figures.

Table 7 : Region-based added value for non-traded services at list price between 1999 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 annual

63 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

growth rate Oued Ed-Dahab - Lagouira 266 278 324 330 349 390 450 484 531 9% Laâyoune - Boujdour - S. El Hamra 835 880 1032 1053 1090 1220 1370 1436 1526 8% Guelmim - Es-Semara 1536 1298 1553 1661 1783 1960 2280 2465 2545 7% Souss - Massa - Daraa 6076 5505 6389 6821 7545 8259 9397 10118 10570 7% Gharb - Chrarda - Béni Hssen 2980 3277 3689 3745 3844 4226 4610 4693 4932 7% Chaouia - Ouardigha 3188 3421 3830 3864 3959 4362 4798 4906 5209 6% Marrakech - Tensift - Al Haouz 5287 5527 6247 6370 6650 7348 8066 8674 9180 7% The eastern region 4214 4426 4938 4975 5107 5593 6279 6485 6850 6% Grand Casablanca 6581 6938 7665 7659 9015 9798 10160 10366 10927 7% Rabat - Salé - Zemmour - Zaer 11605 12232 13517 13589 15957 17763 16453 17008 18043 6% Doukkala - Abda 2918 3165 3571 3597 3774 4168 4545 4659 4979 7% Tadla - Azilal 2534 2599 2929 2971 3093 3426 3842 4049 4253 7% Meknès - Tafilalet 5141 5391 6026 6119 6325 4716 7676 8051 8511 7% Fès - Boulemane 3469 3718 4137 4174 4284 4716 5083 5383 5718 6% Taza - Al Hoceïma - Taounate 3329 3453 3853 3911 4063 4429 5069 5401 5507 6% Tangier - Tetouan 3895 4347 4882 4900 5042 5506 5982 6484 6900 7% National 63853 66455 74583 75739 81880 87881 96061 100661 106181 7% Source: SDFF figures. Table 8 : Region-based added value for the tertiary sector at list price between 2000 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate South 5800 6537 7007 7140 8439 9201 10231 10991 10% Sous-Massa-Daraâ 19365 20838 21474 23878 25900 27912 29357 32123 7% Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen 9544 10351 11004 11195 12361 12965 13778 15768 7% Chaouia-Ouardigha 9679 10251 11138 11204 12163 12832 13437 15162 7% Marrakech-Tensift-Al Houz 18610 20085 20820 22039 24803 27592 29041 34617 9% The Eastern region 12930 14427 15137 15323 16656 17837 19364 21005 7% Grand-Casablanca 30714 32435 34857 36037 38950 42496 45284 50359 7% Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer 27252 29795 31122 33833 36282 35482 38836 42319 6% Doukkala-Abda 9068 9686 10019 10744 11310 12243 14163 15563 8% Tadla-Azilal 7135 7995 8000 8571 9310 9735 10276 11068 6% Meknès-Tafilalet 13378 14523 15057 16213 15006 18323 19203 21449 7% Fès-Boulemane 11336 11637 12154 12887 13570 14964 15702 18057 7% Taza-Al Houceima-Taounate 7507 7828 8260 8935 9394 10606 10873 11047 6% Tangier-Tetouan 13269 15233 16116 16210 16435 18454 20290 22185 8% National 195589 211621 222165 234210 250577 270642 289835 321713 7% Source: DSFF figures.

64 Regions in n Morocco: Sector-Based Contribution in the Creation of National Wealth

Annex 9 : Region-based GNP between 2000 and 2007 Table 9 : Region-based GNP at list price between 2000 and 2007 (in million MAD) Average annual 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate South 10867 12614 13760 13205 14737 16374 17663 19740 9% Souss-Massa-Daraâ 48117 53143 54361 57822 59625 63392 71539 76085 7% Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen 27203 30991 33602 33277 36190 36198 39239 35740 4% Chaouia-Ouardigha 20679 22017 23070 24571 26138 26013 29978 32129 6% Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz 30608 32307 33757 37150 41188 44200 49956 56103 9% The eastern region 26814 31058 32332 34718 36282 37186 40698 43587 7% Grand-Casablanca 77402 80867 83876 88375 96905 101847 104892 112716 6% Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer 38959 42235 43835 48136 51230 49939 54951 59171 6% Doukkala-Abda 20872 22080 23078 25884 25393 25852 33624 37388 9% Tadla-Azilal 16002 18818 19029 20764 21544 21426 23424 24277 6% Meknès-Tafilalet 19763 21011 21959 24111 23184 26478 28421 31377 7% Fès-Boulemane 17727 17103 18277 20598 21500 22221 23942 26769 6% Taza-Al Houceima-Taounate 10300 10884 11403 13094 13921 14740 16513 15244 6% Tangier-Tetouan 28062 31274 33088 35315 37180 41812 42503 45929 7% National 393381 426402 445426 477021 505015 527679 577344 616254 7% Source: SDFF figures.

Tableau 10 : Region-based GNP per capita between 2000 and 2007 (in MAD) Average annual 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 growth rate South 16006 18253 19519 18367 18016 19469 20302 21838 5% Souss-Massa-Daraâ 16251 17597 17644 18409 19147 20105 22370 23454 5% Gharb-Chrarda-Béni Hssen 15063 16870 17988 17533 19457 19306 20728 18693 3% Chaouia-Ouardigha 12632 13344 13872 14661 15784 15623 17897 19067 6% Marrakech-Tensift-Al Haouz 10372 10805 11152 12125 13274 14130 15814 17604 8% The Eastern region 14286 16380 16893 17979 18916 19277 20957 22295 7% Grand-Casablanca 22619 23218 23654 24508 26681 27880 28465 30316 4% Rabat-Salé-Zemmour-Zaer 17088 18088 18348 19688 21652 20739 22402 23668 5% Doukkala-Abda 10792 11271 11632 12890 12799 12958 16745 18509 8% Tadla-Azilal 11151 12925 12910 13907 14858 14706 15990 16492 6% Meknès-Tafilalet 9570 10039 10363 11241 10829 12275 13073 14320 6% Fès-Boulemane 11686 11020 11524 12707 13668 13957 14825 16352 5% Taza-Al Houceima-Taounate 5675 5947 6180 7047 7704 8121 9053 8331 6% Tangier-Tetouan 12064 13151 13616 14223 15053 16698 16701 17761 6% National 13704 14618 15032 15854 16895 17489 18926 19982 6% Source: SDFF figures.

65