Morocco’s Jobs Landscape Identifying Constraints to an Inclusive Labor Market Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Gordon Betcherman, Ayache Khellaf, and Vasco Molini INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUS Morocco’s Jobs Landscape Identifying Constraints to an Inclusive Labor Market GLADYS LOPEZ-ACEVEDO, GORDON BETCHERMAN, AYACHE KHELLAF, AND VASCO MOLINI © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 24 23 22 21 Books in this series are published to communicate the results of World Bank research, analysis, and operational experience with the least possible delay. The extent of language editing varies from book to book. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. 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Contents Acknowledgments vii About the Contributors ix Overview xi Abbreviations xvii CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 Development and jobs in Morocco 1 Morocco’s labor market and challenges to job growth 4 Report outline 6 Notes 7 References 8 CHAPTER 2 Economic, Demographic, and Policy Trends 9 Economic growth and employment 9 Key policy areas affecting jobs 21 Notes 27 References 28 CHAPTER 3 Labor Market Trends 31 A snapshot of Moroccan workers 32 Profiles of the orking-agew population: The inactive, the unemployed, and the employed 38 Where Moroccans work: Employment sectors and their characteristics 42 Where Moroccans work: Firms and their characteristics 50 Notes 54 References 55 CHAPTER 4 Labor Market Challenges 57 Generating more jobs by accelerating structural transformation 57 Bringing youth into the labor market 65 Bringing women into the labor market 67 Notes 71 References 71 CHAPTER 5 Conclusions and the Way Forward 73 Supporting the creation of more and better jobs in higher- productivity sectors 74 Encouraging formalization 76 Increasing female labor force participation and connecting women to better jobs 76 iii iv | MOROCCO'S JOBS LANDSCAPE Supporting youth in their transition from education to the labor market 78 Notes 79 References 80 APPENDIX A Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Households 81 Boxes 1.1 COVID-19 underscores the urgency for Morocco’s job creation 4 2.1 Methodology for calculating elasticity of employment 13 3.1 Main data sources 32 3.2 Key variables used in defining profiles of theorking-age w population 39 3.3 The Moroccan tourism and hotel industry: Vision 2020 Tourism Strategy and COVID-19 46 3.4 Informal jobs are the main source of employment for workers in developing countries 48 3.5 Moroccan agricultural strategies: The 2009–2019 Plan Maroc Vert and the 2020–2030 Génération Green 49 Figures 2.1 Economic growth in Morocco slowing over past 20 years 10 2.2 Big slowdown in agricultural growth 10 2.3 Jobs gap remains stubbornly high 11 2.4 Population, by age groups, 2000 and 2019 12 2.5 Low dependency ratio offers “demographic window” 12 2.6 Economic growth driven by higher output per worker 14 2.7 Labor productivity highest in industry but growing fastest in agriculture, 2000–19 15 2.8 Not much change in the structure of GDP over past two decades 17 2.9 Morocco lags middle-income countries in structural change in employment 17 2.10 Workers increasingly moving to cities 18 2.11 Industry drives growth in Casablanca, while services drive growth in Rabat 19 2.12 Moroccans migrate mostly to France, Spain, and Italy 20 2.13 Workers fare poorly on educational attainment 26 3.1 Labor status of the population in Morocco, 2000 34 3.2 Labor status of the population in Morocco, 2019 35 3.3 School-to-work transition for males and females aged 15–24, 2019 35 3.4 Higher inactive rate for women, especially once they marry 36 3.5 Technical and vocational education and training still low 37 3.6 Poorer households have higher worker participation rates 38 3.7 Members of richer households are mainly wageworkers employed in off-farm activities 38 3.8 The “inactive” are mostly urban women with low educations, followed by their rural counterparts 40 3.9 The “unemployed” are mostly young, urban, and educated 40 3.10 The “self-employed” are mostly rural, low-educated males 41 3.11 Level of education divides formal and informal workers 42 3.12 Public and private employees are mostly urban, educated males 42 3.13 Workers mostly moved to services and construction sectors, 2000 and 2019 43 3.14 Agriculture has the biggest share of female workers and workers above age 45 46 3.15 Poorest workers in agriculture, richest in services 47 B3.4.1 Women are more exposed than men to informal employment in most developing countries 49 3.16 Micro and small firms dominate the Moroccan economy 51 Contents | v 3.17 Agriculture typified yb small firms, industry by larger firms 51 3.18 Nonagricultural micro and small firms favor males with low educations 52 3.19 Larger nonagricultural firms have mostly more-educated male workers 53 4.1 Big variations in how regions generate value added 61 4.2 Big variations in regions as to which service sectors generate jobs 62 4.3 Big sectoral variations among regions for relationships between productivity and employment 63 4.4 Explaining employment growth 65 4.5 Morocco’s NEET problem is even more troubling than in other MENA economies 66 4.6 Morocco’s female labor force participation is stagnant despite gross domestic product growth and in contrast to the world pattern 67 4.7 More women working in rural than urban areas, but female labor force participation a problem for both areas 68 4.8 Childcare and domestic duties are the main reason for women’s inactivity 69 A.1 Employment status at the time of the survey of employed workers who stopped working during confinement, by social class 83 A.2 Employed workers, by full-time and alternating telework 84 A.3 Decrease in average monthly income during confinement 85 A.4 Working-age population that benefited from public assistance during confinement 86 A.5 Share of compensation for loss of income following public aid 87 A.6 Recipients of public assistance at the time of the survey, by type of activity, gender, and place of residence 88 A.7 Share of employed workers not using any preventive measures in the workplace 89 A.8