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ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report Volume 24 – Issue 40 – 19th October 2014 This Week Prepared by 1. Public Administration Economic Research Unit 2. Rationalizing Subsidies ALSHALL Consulting Co. 3. The Proposed Housing Strategy Salhiya – Sahab Tower – Floor 9 – Kuwait 4. Trading Features at Kuwait Stock Exchange (January – September 2014) Tel: + 96522451535 – Fax: +96522422619 5. The Weekly Performance of Kuwait Stock Exchange Email: [email protected] Web site: www.alshall.com Twitter: @ALSHALL_Com 1. Public Administration We stated in a previous report that the by US$ 22.5 per barrel, 21.1%, compared public administration represented by the to the average price for the first half of the Council of Ministers and the National current fiscal year 2014/2015 for the same Assembly failed to pay attention to all Brent oil. The effect on oil revenues in the warnings about a forthcoming weakness in event of weak oil market is usually comes the oil market and they ended the last term doubled as the producing countries cut session by approving a budget with record production to defend price. But they usually allocations and increase by 10.5% over last do not comply with what they agreed on; fiscal year’s allocations 2013/2014. We therefore, they lose a share of production also mentioned that what happened was while prices continue their drop. This contrary to all the declared goals of the occurred twice historically; the first in the development plan which is supposed to eighties and the second in the nineties. commence in April 2015. It is also contrary Some regional countries would have to the agreement with the Higher Council internally exploded before the intervention for Planning and Development which of the United States in the two instances to includes all the concerned ministers in the limit the oil supply using its power. government. Very briefly, each public administration in any country obtains a The situation today is much more serious. general power of attorney which is Western interests are less; western revocable in democratic states but is alliance’s changed; and the entire region is irrevocable in non-democratic ones. The scorching with painful geopolitical events. purpose of such power is to assume the The internal conditions in all the regional responsibility of construction and to avoid states are not quite well, with each and the biggest and most serious risks. What every state being a potential for a happened in Kuwait is the opposite, i.e. forthcoming crisis. Confronting those failure in construction and aggravating circumstances by buying political stability future risks. with money is no more possible and the future risks are doubling. The ability to buy By the middle of the last week -we are time with money has become limited and unable to obtain new figures for Kuwaiti oil the damage will increase if more time is price- the Brent oil average price scored wasted in malice or exchanging blame. It is about US$ 84.1 per barrel which is lower more important to acknowledge the grave 1 ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report Volume 24 – Issue 40 – 19th October 2014 and serious situation and then to halt expenses to build more power plants to drifting into a no-return position. Examples meet the overconsumption. It also around us such glides are numerous. contributes to increasing environmental pollution levels and perhaps unnecessary In the past few years, the strong oil market, addition to the traffic congestion. On the bought stability period to the oil-rich side of revenues, it helps to expand the gap countries when other countries felled down. of the public finance and the opposite can However, it was not a sustainable stability, be achieved when rationalizing in Kuwait, the opposite happened. Financial consumption. waste hit the foundations of the competiveness of the domestic economy. The government’s orientation towards That was not the fault of the oil market but rationalizing power consumption is 27 that of mismanagement of its revenues. years old -since 1987- which is slightly Nowadays, there are uncomfortable indexes longer than half the age of the declared of oil market weakness which is not government’s orientation to diversify temporary. It is perhaps an opportunity for income resources in its development plans the return of reason to manage its revenues but nothing of which has been achieved. and surpluses. This will not happen unless a The new orientation as published by substantial change occurs in managing that AlQabas newspaper is a proposal that we outcome. do not bet on its inevitable implementation though it is a correct approach. It is the 2. Rationalizing Subsidies outcome of a sample study; it classifies The subsidy invoice in the public budget consumers according to the nature and level amounts to more than KD 5 billion, 22% of of consumption and adopts pricing in the current budget allocations and is higher accordance with ascending brackets. 20% than the allocations of all public budgets in of special consumers are excluded from any the beginning of the third millennium. increase while the cost increases as per About 60% of subsidy expenses go to the three subsequent categories. In other words, power generation, water and transportation there is no increase or 2 fils per KW on the means fuel. Adding the subsidy invoice to first 3,000 KW consumption; 6 fils per KW the direct and indirect salaries and wages, for the second 3,000 KW consumption; 10 both military and civil, the obligation to fils per KW for the next 6,000 KW, and 12 salaries and wages, or their support, will fils per KW for what exceeds that. reach KD 16 billion which is unsustainable Exemption is offered to lower consumption if we take into consideration the newcomers brackets for investment usages which to the labor market. The problem of waste include the commercial and agricultural, or and consumption has indirect 2 fils per KW for the first 1,000 KW for the repercussions. Its domestic investment and 2,000 KW for the overconsumption is deducted from the agricultural. The maximum price, or 12 fils country’s share assigned for export which per KW, is for either of them beyond 4,000 consequently cuts down the general KW consumption. The direct saving result revenue and increases the unnecessary 2 ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report Volume 24 – Issue 40 – 19th October 2014 in the power subsidy expenses will be about report is an outline of Kuwait’s Housing 20% or KD 570 million if this proposal is Conference held last March. It began implemented. correctly according to professional convictions but ended with dominance of We emphasize that the invitation to the politicians’ orientations and the rationalize public spending, whose present endorsement of the 12,000 housing units level is unsustainable, is a due call. Starting per annum, or the horizontal expansion to rationalize subsidy to give it only to from border to border. Out of 10 items in those who deserve it is a right start. Its the report introduction that summed up the timing at the beginning of a weakening oil main elements of the strategy, we believe market may facilitate its marketing that except for item (2) relating to the politically. The problem, as we stated in sustainability condition, everything else another paragraph of the report, is that the about power consumption, the public administration does the opposite of infrastructure costs, and even the financing what it advocates. It is difficult for it to and the excessive land prices is the understand it from a holistic perspective. outcome of the impossibility of that Take for instance the contradiction in sustainability and it has no great value. adopting the horizontal expansion in The report provides abundant information; housing to coincide with the talk about the hence, we recommend reading it. It begins necessity of rationalizing power by asserting the astounding failure of the consumption. Marketing of these due housing strategy which was endorsed half a policies should coincide with apparent century ago under quite different conditions measures to confront the widespread in terms of population density, land prices corruption and halting waste in other and building costs. Remaining as is without spending items. The rise in the per capita change in the present times and in future share in the health expenses to the highest cannot be achieved. global levels is unacceptable taken against its deteriorating services and associating Some valid examples that the report them with populist projects for medical contained like the rise in the number of tourism and the special medical insurance. Kuwaiti families from 153.6 thousand in 2000 to 250.4 thousand in 2013 due to the We stand firm with any correct beginning expansion in the demographic pyramid implying some hope in reform though it is a reaffirms the impossibility of continuing feeble hope without remedy of the core of the horizontal expansion. Under better the problem, or forming the exemplary financial conditions and lower demand, the public administration in its approach and shortage in housing units increased from policy. 47.8 thousand in 2000 to 110.4 thousand in 3. The Proposed Housing Strategy 2013 and the waiting period to obtain a The Realtors Association thankfully home is 18 years. Until 2006, there was a prepared a volume containing aspects of a noticeable cancellation of applications due proposed housing strategy in Kuwait. The to the possibility of obtaining a piece of 3 ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report Volume 24 – Issue 40 – 19th October 2014 land at an affordable price and building it 4. Trading Features at Kuwait Stock with a loan. This is no more possible now Exchange (January – September due to the incredible rise in land prices.
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