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Confettis D'empire Ou Points D'appui ? L'avenir De La Stratégie Française De Études de l’Ifri Focus stratégique 94 CONFETTIS D’EMPIRE OU POINTS D’APPUI ? L’avenir de la stratégie française de présence et de souveraineté Élie TENENBAUM avec Morgan PAGLIA et Nathalie RUFFIÉ Février 2020 Centre des études de sécurité L’Ifri est, en France, le principal centre indépendant de recherche, d’information et de débat sur les grandes questions internationales. Créé en 1979 par Thierry de Montbrial, l’Ifri est une association reconnue d’utilité publique (loi de 1901). Il n’est soumis à aucune tutelle administrative, définit librement ses activités et publie régulièrement ses travaux. L’Ifri associe, au travers de ses études et de ses débats, dans une démarche interdisciplinaire, décideurs politiques et experts à l’échelle internationale. Les opinions exprimées dans ce texte n’engagent que la responsabilité des auteurs. En partenariat avec ISBN : 979-10-373-0126-0 © Tous droits réservés, Ifri, 2020 Comment citer cette publication : Élie Tenenbaum, avec Morgan Paglia et Nathalie Ruffié, « Confettis d’empire ou points d’appui ? L’avenir de la stratégie française de présence et de souveraineté », Focus stratégique, n° 94, Ifri, février 2020. Ifri 27 rue de la Procession 75740 Paris Cedex 15 – FRANCE Tél. : +33 (0)1 40 61 60 00 – Fax : +33 (0)1 40 61 60 60 E-mail : [email protected] Site internet : Ifri.org Focus stratégique Les questions de sécurité exigent une approche intégrée, qui prenne en compte à la fois les aspects régionaux et globaux, les dynamiques technologiques et militaires mais aussi médiatiques et humaines, ou encore la dimension nouvelle acquise par le terrorisme ou la stabilisation post-conflit. Dans cette perspective, le Centre des études de sécurité se propose, par la collection Focus stratégique, d’éclairer par des perspectives renouvelées toutes les problématiques actuelles de la sécurité. Associant les chercheurs du centre des études de sécurité de l’Ifri et des experts extérieurs, Focus stratégique fait alterner travaux généralistes et analyses plus spécialisées, réalisées en particulier par l’équipe du Laboratoire de Recherche sur la Défense (LRD). Auteur Élie Tenenbaum est chercheur au centre des études de sécurité de l’Ifri et coordonnateur du LRD. Il a publié de nombreux articles d’histoire et de stratégie sur les guérillas, le terrorisme et la contre-insurrection. Il est l’auteur de Partisans et Centurions. Une histoire de la guerre irrégulière au XXe siècle (Perrin, 2018). Morgan Paglia a rejoint le centre des études de sécurité de l’Ifri en 2018. En tant que doctorant à l’Institut Catholique de Paris, ses travaux universitaires abordent les évolutions récentes de la politique de défense américaine depuis la première guerre du Golfe. Nathalie Ruffié est doctorante en sciences politiques et sociologie militaire. Elle travaille en particulier sur les questions interculturelles dans les opérations militaires françaises, sous le prisme de la formation. Elle est l’auteur de L’interculturalité dans les opérations militaires, le cas américain en Irak et en Afghanistan (Éditions du cygne, 2015). Comité de rédaction Rédacteur en chef : Élie Tenenbaum Assistante d’édition : Palmyre De Jaegere Résumé La France est l’une des rares puissances au monde à disposer d’une présence militaire globale permanente. Avec plus de 10 000 militaires issus des trois armées, déployés sur les cinq continents et les trois grands bassins océaniques, elle possède aujourd’hui le second dispositif de forces prépositionnées au monde, après les États-Unis. Il s’articule autour de cinq forces de présence établies au Sénégal, en Côte d’Ivoire, au Gabon, à Djibouti et aux Émirats arabes unis, ainsi que de cinq forces de souveraineté dans les départements, régions et collectivités d’outre-mer des Antilles, de Guyane, de l’océan Indien (Mayotte et La Réunion), de Nouvelle-Calédonie et de Polynésie française. Au cours des vingt dernières années, ce dispositif unique a cependant été frappé par une série de déflations d’effectifs et subi des retards successifs dans la livraison de nouveaux matériels. Il en résulte un système de force taillé « au plus juste », qui est traversé par d’importantes tensions – quand il ne s’agit pas de ruptures – capacitaires. La fatigue des équipements et la précarisation des effectifs pèsent tout particulièrement sur la capacité des forces prépositionnées à contribuer autant qu’elles le pourraient aux cinq grandes fonctions stratégiques confirmées par la Revue Stratégique de 2017. Ces points d’attention méritent d’autant plus d’être pris en compte que les forces prépositionnées seront confrontées dans les années à venir à de nombreux défis d’ordre démographique, climatique, économique, géopolitique et bien entendu militaire, qui contraindront fortement leur environnement opérationnel. La zone Caraïbes-Amérique Latine devrait ainsi demeurer sujette à un dangereux cumul de risques naturels, notamment aux Antilles, et à la menace grandissante de la criminalité organisée. La France devra aussi prendre en compte d’éventuelles confrontations régionales, comme le suggère aujourd’hui la crise vénézuélienne. L’Afrique centrale et occidentale continuera pour sa part d’être confrontée à l’expansion du militantisme djihadiste, qui est aujourd’hui porté par une dynamique de fond structurée par les déséquilibres démographiques. Elle devra aussi faire face à l’enjeu d’un renouvellement générationnel des élites politiques, dont certaines ont confisqué le pouvoir depuis des décennies, posant la question de possibles crises de transition. L’Afrique de l’Est et l’océan Indien présentent également des enjeux considérables pour la France, dont les moyens déployés sur place demeurent modestes. À l’avenir, Paris devra surveiller l’évolution de la Confettis d’empire ou points d’appui ? Élie Tenenbaum avec Morgan Paglia et Nathalie Ruffié menace djihadiste en Afrique de l’Est, tout en s’adaptant à la compétition stratégique (notamment à Djibouti). Dans la zone Sud de l’océan Indien, elle devra gérer les risques sociaux et environnementaux à Mayotte, relever les défis à la souveraineté française dans le canal du Mozambique, et nouer des partenariats durables dans tout le bassin océanique. Obéissant à sa propre dynamique, la région du Moyen-Orient et du golfe Persique est plus encore marquée par l’instabilité chronique et les conflits armés. Implantée dans la région à plus d’un titre, la France devra adapter sa posture en fonction des tensions régionales et des fluctuations des garanties de sécurité américaines. Enfin, l’Asie-Pacifique est appelée à jouer un rôle déterminant pour les équilibres économiques et géopolitiques mondiaux du fait de la compétition stratégique sino-américaine. Par-delà les enjeux majeurs de la menace nord-coréenne et des disputes en mer de Chine, la région est aussi chargée de menaces pour la France du fait des tensions possibles autour de la protection de sa souveraineté maritime et territoriale. Face à ces problématiques, il est dès lors primordial de déterminer le niveau d’ambition et les effets recherchés par le système de forces prépositionnées. Parmi les questions de fond se trouvent celle d’un calibrage capacitaire, aujourd’hui tourné vers le « bas du spectre » du fait des missions fixées par les contrats opérationnels, mais qui pourrait demain gagner à être réévalué. Se pose aussi la question de l’adaptation à la géopolitique du XXIe siècle, et de l’opportunité pour la France de disposer à terme d’un nouveau point d’appui, notamment dans la zone Indopacifique. Enfin, les armées françaises devront procéder à une réévaluation de leurs besoins capacitaires outre-mer et à l’étranger. L’armée de l’Air est de loin la composante la plus affaiblie, surtout dans le domaine de la mobilité intra-théâtre, qui gagnerait à être accrue. La Marine nationale est également confrontée à des défis de taille. Par-delà le renouvellement désormais acté des patrouilleurs se posent les questions d’une capacité hauturière de transport amphibie, de patrouille maritime, et du renouvellement des frégates de surveillance. Enfin, l’armée de Terre doit faire face à la précarisation de ses effectifs, mais aussi aux enjeux de l’évolution du paysage de la coopération, tout en se préparant à relever le défi de la haute intensité. 6 Abstract France is one of the few nations in the world to benefit from a permanent global military presence. With more than 10,000 military personnel from all three services, deployed across the five continents and the three main oceanic basins, it benefits from the second largest network of prepositioned forces in the world, after the United States. This global military posture is structured around five “presence forces”, based in Senegal, Ivory Coast, Gabon, Djibouti and the United Arab Emirates, as well as five “sovereignty forces” in the dependent overseas territories of the Antilles, French Guyana, Southern Indian Ocean, New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Over the past twenty years, this unique force posture has been hit by a series of deep budgetary cuts, translating into staff reductions and persisting delays in equipment delivery. As a result, the current military presence is under serious strain, as some capability are now weighing on the ability of these prepositioned forces to contribute as much as they could to the five strategic functions reiterated in the 2017 Strategic Review. These considerations are all the more important given the coming demographic, climatic, economic, geopolitical, and of course military challenges that will dramatically constrain the operational environment of the French forces in the coming years. Latin America and the Caribbean region should remain subject to a dangerous series of natural risks, especially in the Antilles, as well as to the threat of organized crime activities. French military posture in the region could also be further affected by potential regional confrontations, as recently suggested by the Venezuelan crisis. French presence in West and Central Africa region will keep being confronted with the expansion of jihadist militancy: driven by demographic imbalances, this major threat has become a structural dynamic in the area today.
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