Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) Occasional Paper – №19 Trends and Challenges in International Security: An Inventory Fred Schreier GENEVA CENTRE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CONTROL OF ARMED FORCES (DCAF) OCCASIONAL PAPER – №19 Trends and Challenges in International Security: An Inventory Fred Schreier Copyright © 2010 by the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces ISBN 978-92-9222-118-8 DCAF Occasional Papers are detailed, theoretical studies on core issues of Security Sector Governance. DCAF Occasional Papers can be downloaded free of charge from the DCAF website at www.dcaf.ch/publications Table of Contents Introduction ..................................................................................... 3 1. The big issues: The backdrop that needs to be addressed but that cannot be changed within the next few years .................................... 11 1.1 Demographics ...................................................................... 11 1.2 Economics .......................................................................... 14 1.3 Energy ............................................................................... 18 1.4 Food ................................................................................. 23 1.5 Water ............................................................................... 30 1.6 Climate change and natural disasters ......................................... 38 1.7 Confict, war and the future of armed forces ................................. 44 1.8 Space ................................................................................ 53 2. The unfinished business: Things that should have been solved a long time ago, but are hard to address ................................................... 57 2.1 Corruption .......................................................................... 57 2.2 Terrorism ........................................................................... 62 2.3 Proliferation ....................................................................... 68 2.4 Organised crime ................................................................... 71 2.5 Piracy, hijacking, kidnapping, abduction, and extortion ................... 74 2.6 Migration and integration ........................................................ 81 2.7 Parliamentary control and oversight ........................................... 87 3. The issues that will be on our desks in the coming years ...................... 94 3.1 Globalisation ....................................................................... 94 3.2 The nation-state in a globalised world ........................................ 99 3.3 Failing and failed states ........................................................ 105 3.4 Nation-building ................................................................... 111 3.5 Individual rights versus collective security .................................. 117 3.6 Effective multilateralism in development cooperation .................... 125 3.7 International coordination of efforts: the example of disaster relief ... 129 3.8 Multilateral donorship versus local ownership .............................. 133 3.9 Pandemics ......................................................................... 137 3.10 Cyberspace ........................................................................ 140 3.11 Technological progress and innovation ....................................... 149 3.12 Public-private partnership ...................................................... 159 4. Concluding remarks ................................................................... 168 Introduction The Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) was founded in October 2000 at the initiative of the Swiss government. DCAF counts today some fifty-four member states and has evolved into one the world’s leading centres of excellence in the areas of security sector reform (SSR) and security sector governance (SSG). It is unique through its holistic approach that encompasses the entire spectrum of SSR and SSG, through its combination of conceptual and analytical work with hands on operational missions on the ground, as well as through its organisational structure that places the Centre at the crossroads between an NGO and an intergovernmental organisation. The Centre has decided to commemorate its up-coming tenth anniversary through a series of studies to be published throughout the year. They will look at three issues: (1) The trends and challenges which will determine SSR and SSG in the years to come; (2) how the environment will evolve in which SSR and SSG will have to operate; and – above all – (3) how the SSR / SSG approach will have to further evolve in order to be able to cope with the new realities of a globalising world. The corresponding programme has been called “Horizon 2015.” There are several reasons for this choice of a relatively narrow time horizon. First, a more distant horizon – for instance 2025 or 2050 – would contain the risk that the series could embark on shallow guess work and simple speculation. In 2050 everything is possible – while 2015 is close enough to impose intellectual rigour. Secondly, DCAF will have to adopt in 2011 a new Strategy Paper for the years 2012–15. “Horizon 2015” should, thus, contribute to the debate what DCAF’s strategy should be in the years to come. “Trends and Challenges in International Security: An Inventory” is the first “Horizon 2015” study. Its objective is to depict the overall environment in which SSR and SSG will have to be shaped in the years to come. It is an inventory of problems and challenges, not an answer to the question of how SSR and SSG will have to evolve as a result of these trends. That will be the subject of subsequent “Horizon 2015” studies. Nor does this first study claim to be comprehensive – neither with respect to the topics covered or the depth of analysis. There are additional topics that would merit to being looked at and there is much more that could be said on all the issues covered. The study seeks merely to recall the overall background against which the issue of SSR and SSG must be discussed in the coming years. The volume’s job is, so to speak, to set the stage for further analysis to come within the “Horizon 2015” series. The study breaks down into three parts: (1) Problems and trends that have a fundamental impact on the subject matter but are not going to be solved till 2015. This group of issues includes topics such as the climate change, resource scarcities, or demographics. (2) Problems that are well known and understood but escape easy solutions – and thus are likely to be still very much on the agenda in 2015. That group includes issues like corruption, organised international crime, and illegal migration. (3) Topics that figure already on the agenda – and thus are addressed by current SSR / SSG approaches – but whose full implications appear still to be underestimated and, therefore, consume a good deal of our time in the years to come. 3 The “Horizon 2015” series will focus on a select group of such issues, focusing, above all, on those that are likely to demand modified, expanded, or new SSR / SSG approaches. The term SSR was originally coined by Claire Short, a member of Tony Blair’s cabinet and responsible for development cooperation. The key point was to recognise that there is a need to coordinate so far separate policies such as development cooperation and defence assistance. SSR understands all components of the security sector – armed forces, police, border guards, intelligence agencies, presidential or national guards, paramilitary forces, and so forth – as pieces of one great puzzle that hang together. These “gens d’armes”, i.e., the armed component of state authority, are all, in different ways, called upon to establish, defend, and if necessary impose, the state monopoly of legitimate force. Their respective mandates must be clear, distinct, and precise (for instance: who has the right to arrest somebody – and for what reason?). Such precise mandates imply automatically the notion of accountability (both with respect to failure to fulfil one’s mandate or to overstep its limits). This, in turn, lays the basis for an efficient oversight framework at the governmental, parliamentary, and ultimately public levels. The concept makes obvious sense – but drives a coach and horses through previously existing, and jealously guarded parochial service and administrative interests.1 There is a clear nexus between security and development. Without security there cannot be any development. If the most essential security needs of a society cannot be assured, there is simply no way for economic development to make any headway. There is, simply put, no point in digging wells, if somebody is poisoning them. Nobody invests in a war zone. Inversely, there cannot be any security in the longer term, if there is no development. People with empty stomachs will eventually grab their Kalashnikovs, join organised international crime, or migrate. Once the security / development nexus was recognised, another insight was inevitable. In order to establish security and to foster development, it is necessary to build up the foundations for the rule of law. The precise definition of the components of the security sector and of the mandates and resulting competences of its components implies the adoption of constitutionally based, transparent, and effective laws and regulations. Only a security sector established