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Impact of International and Domestic Flights To/From Japanese Local Airports on Overnight Stays of Foreign Visitors in Japan: an Analysis

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Impact of International and Domestic Flights To/From Japanese Local Airports on Overnight Stays of Foreign Visitors in Japan: an Analysis Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.13, 2019 Impact of International and Domestic Flights to/from Japanese Local Airports on Overnight Stays of Foreign Visitors in Japan: An Analysis Yoshikazu KUKI a, Tetsuo SHIMIZU b a The Tourism Science Department of the Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, 192-0397, Japan, E-mail: [email protected] b The Tourism Science Department of the Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, 192-0397, Japan, E-mail: [email protected] Abstract: Through a statistical analysis of data, this study aims to explore how international and domestic flights to local airports in Japan affect the number of overnight stays by Chinese, Koreans, and Taiwanese visitors in the rural areas of Japan, impacting the amount of visitor consumption. One of the main estimated results is that an increase in the number of international scheduled flights has a significant effect on the number of overnight stays by foreign visitors from the three countries/regions. Keywords: Number of Overnight Stays, Foreign Visitors, Local Airport, Multiple Regression Model 1. INTRODUCTION In recent times, there has been a rapid increase in the number of foreign visitors to Japan (Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), 2018). In 2018, the number of foreign visitors was 31 million, the largest ever, an increase of 8.7% from the previous year. In addition, the number of foreign visitors from China (without Hong Kong, hereinafter), Korea, and Taiwan accounted for 66% of the total number of foreign visitors to Japan. Since Japan is struggling with the issue of a decreasing birthrate and an aging population, it is important to maximize the economic gains resulting from foreign visitor spending from the three countries/regions. While international flights attract attention to capture inbound demand in the rural areas of Japan, among the 31 public-managed airports by the national government, nearly 27 of them are in the red, as seen in 2015. In addition, the Fujisan Shizuoka Airport, managed by the Shizuoka local government, which is popular in Japan for an increase in the number of international flights from China, has been in the red for 7 years in a row since the airport became operational. As these examples show, the business environment of management of local airports is difficult, and it is a critical matter to maintain and increase the number of international flights. Therefore, it is important to investigate the influence of the international flights on the number of foreign visitors to Japan’s rural areas. The object of this study is therefore to use statistical analysis to examine the effect of international flights to local airports in Japan on the number of foreign visitors and consider the direction to be taken by national and local governments regarding aviation policies for tourism based on the results of the examination. Our examination model adopts the total number of overnight stays by Chinese, Korean, and Taiwanese visitors in rural prefectures in Japan as the dependent variable. These data were available with the "Overnight Travel Statistics Survey" by the Japan Tourism Agency, a Corresponding author. 298 Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.13, 2019 most accurate research on the number of foreign visitors in Japan. We also found that the proportion of "accommodation fee" spent by foreign visitors from the total consumption was large. We aim to verify the hypothesis that an increase in not only the number of direct international flights to the local airports from the three countries/regions, but also in the number of domestic flights from Tokyo and Osaka, the representative gateways in Japan, to these local airports, have an impact on the total number of overnight stays in rural areas by foreign visitors from the three countries/regions by considering data from 2012 to 2015. Finally, based on the result, we consider the direction of aviation policies to be adopted by national and local governments for tourism. This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the current situation of foreign visitors to Japan, and their usage of the country/regional airports provides an overview of the aviation policies requiring changes for tourism. Section 3 examines previous studies. In Section 4, we explain the estimation method. The results are presented in Section 5. Section 6 presents the discussion and the policy implications based on the results. In Section 7, we describe the conclusions. 2. CONTEXTUAL BACKGROUND 2.1 Foreign Visitors to Japan, Their Number, and Their Usage of Local Airports According to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), the number of foreign visitors to Japan in 2018 is 31 million, a record high, which has been increasing continuously since 2012, when it was 8.36 million. The number of foreign visitors has increased 3.73 times during the last six years. In addition, 85% of these foreign visitors are from Asian countries, and the total share in the number of foreign visitors from the top three countries/regions is 66%, of which China accounts for 8.38 million, South Korea 7.54 million, and Taiwan 4.76 million. As can be seen in Figure 1, the increase in the number of the foreign visitors provides an estimate of the number of passengers in local airports. While the number of foreign entrants to Japan via local airports, other than the 7 major airports (Narita, Kansai, Haneda, Fukuoka, Naha, Chubu, and New Chitose), was 460 thousand in 2012, the number in 2016 was 1,090 thousand, 2.4 times more than the number in 2012. On the other hand, the share of foreign entrants to Japan via the local airports accounted for 5.35% in 2012, which dropped to 4.81% in 2016. This means that the growth in the number of foreign entrants to Japan via the local airports has reduced in comparison with the increase in the total number of foreign entrants. In addition, the proportion of foreign entrants to Japan via the main airports in Tokyo and Osaka from among the total number of foreign entrants was 75.30% in 2012 and 71.51% in 2016. The network between the local airports and the airports in Tokyo and Osaka is crucial to increase the number of foreign visitors to rural areas. Furthermore, as can be seen in Table 1 and Figure 2, the capacity of the major airports in Japan is also limited and the nationality of foreign entrants to Japan via local airports are different, though mainly from the three countries/regions. The local airports, therefore, have potential for an increase in the number of direct international flights from the three countries/regions. 299 Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.13, 2019 Figure 1 The total number and share of foreign entrants to Japan via the local airports and the share of foreign entrants to Japan via the main airports in Tokyo and Osaka (2012-2016). Source: Ministry of Justice (Japan), Annual Report on Statistics on Legal Migrants. 300 Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.13, 2019 Table 1. Capacity of airports Number of Landings Airport Length of Runway (m) (2016) international total flight Haneda 3,360 / 3,000 / 2,500 / 2,500 224,707 40,166 Narita 4,000 / 2,500 123,550 96,907 Main Kansai 4,000 / 3,500 89,226 64,998 Airport Osaka (domestic airport) 3,000 / 1,828 69,372 5 Shizuoka 2,500 4,596 1,259 Hiroshima 3,000 11,894 1,525 Local Kagoshima 3,000 33,049 920 Airport Takamatsu 2,500 9,044 865 Ibaraki 2,700 /2,700 2,510 505 The top 5 local airports in the number of foreign entrants to Japan are in the table. Source: Japan Aviation Bureau, MLIT The number of visitors in Main Airports (Narita, Kansai and Haneda) are one-tenth of the real number for the graphical illustration. The top 5 local airports in the number of foreign entrants to Japan are in the graph. Figure 2 The number of foreign entrants to Japan by countries (2016) Source: Ministry of Justice (Japan), Annual Report on Statistics on Legal Migrants. 2.2 Aviation Policy Direction for National and Local Governments to Enhance Tourism via Local Airports The national and local governments in Japan are currently trying to increase the direct international flights to the local airports rather than domestic flights from the main airports. 301 Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.13, 2019 In the national government’s "Ministerial Conference for the Promotion of Tourism,” under the chairmanship of the prime minister, the "Tourism Vision Realization Program" (Action Program for Realization of Tourism Vision) was drafted in 2016. Its goal is to ensure that the number of foreign visitors will be 40 million by 2020 and 60 million by 2030. The original goal was 20 million by 2020, but it was revised upward as the growth was more than expected. In the early 2020s, the aviation demand to Tokyo metropolitan airports is expected to reach maximum capacity, and for the national government, promoting rural areas in attracting foreign visitors will become very important to achieve the goal. Therefore, the national government has developed a system to certify local airports wherein local governments carry out the promotions actively as "a Special Airport supported by the national government to attract foreign visitors” and offer various forms of support to them. In July 2017, 27 airports were certified by the national government, from which they have been categorized into three groups. The first is the "Expansion Support Type" (expected to further increase the number of foreign visitors with expansion of support by the national government.
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