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Latvian Foreign and Security Policy L A T VIAN VIAN F OREIGN AND SECURI LATVIAN FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY T Y POLICY YEARBOOK 2021 YEARBOOK 2021 Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA) Address: 21 Pils street, LV-1050, Riga, Republic of Latvia www.liia.lv The Latvian Foreign and Security Policy Yearbook 2021 aims to examine and evaluate various spheres of Latvia’s foreign and security policy. It looks at what has been achieved in 2020 and draws up development scenarios for 2021, informing the public and offering recommendations to Latvian policymakers. In 2020, Latvia’s foreign and security environment experienced significant and unpredictable challenges. The global pandemic has profoundly affected both people’s daily lives and international relations in general. The development of global geopolitics and the background of the pandemic will bring a number of new challenges and opportunities to Latvia in 2021 as well. Supported by The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia and The Parliament of the Republic of Latvia In cooperation with Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Editors: Andris Sprūds, Sintija Broka Authors: Māris Andžāns, Reinis Āboltiņš, Satenik Avetisyan, Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Artūrs Bikovs, Sintija Broka, Ilvija Bruģe, Kārlis Bukovskis, Jānis Eichmanis, Daniels S. Hamiltons, Rihards Kols, Imants Lieģis, Beāte Livdanska, Inta Mieriņa, Aleksandra Palkova, Gunta Pastore, Gunda Reire, Edgars Rinkēvičs, Toms Rostoks, Silvestrs Savickis, Andris Sprūds, Inna Šteinbuka, Vita Anda Tērauda, Viljars Vēbels. Project coordinator: Sintija Broka Translation from Latvian: Līvija Anna Uskale, Santa Pelše English language editor: Talis Saule Archdeacon Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns Cover design: Mikus Kovalevskis This book is published in collaboration with the Publishers “Hansa Print Riga” © Authors of the articles, 2021 © Translation: Līvija Anna Uskale, Santa Pelše, 2021 ISBN 978-9934-567-59-9 © Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns, 2021 UDK 327(474.3) © Cover design: Mikus Kovalevskis, 2021 La 801 © Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD Andris Sprūds . 5 ADDRESS BY THE MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS Edgars Rinkēvičs . 7 WORDS FOLLOWED BY ACTIONS – THE ONLY WAY FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICS IN 2021 Rihards Kols . 10 THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE PANDEMIC Vita Anda Tērauda ................................................... 23 THE ANSWER IS SHELTERIN’ FROM THE WIND Imants Lieģis . 29 LATVIA’S CANDIDACY FOR A NON-PERMANENT SEAT ON THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL: THE NEW CONTINUATION OF THE FOREIGN POLICY OF A SMALL COUNTRY Kārlis Bukovskis .................................................... 39 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY DURING TIMES OF PANDEMIC Toms Rostoks ...................................................... 50 THE POLITICAL CLIMATE OF TRANSATLANTIC SECURITY Gunda Reire ....................................................... 62 LATVIA’S DEFENCE: STILL GRADUALLY ADVANCING Māris Andžāns ..................................................... 73 THE THREE SEAS INITIATIVE: ITS FUTURE COURSE Jānis Eichmanis . 84 REALITY ALWAYS BRINGS ADJUSTMENTS: LATVIA IN THE EU 2021 Aleksandra Palkova .................................................. 94 THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE EU SANCTIONS: THE CASES OF RUSSIA AND BELARUS Inna Šteinbuka, Satenika Avetisjana .................................... 110 LATVIA’S RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA: NO REASON FOR OPTIMISM? Artūrs Bikovs ..................................................... 122 LATVIA AND THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP Ilvija Bruģe ....................................................... 134 WITH CAUTION TOWARDS CHANGE: RELATIONS BETWEEN LATVIA AND BELARUS Beāte Livdanska ................................................... 143 LATVIA–CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS UNDER PRESSURE FROM COVID-19 Gunta Pastore ..................................................... 152 LATVIA IN THE MIDDLE EAST: BETWEEN PRAGMATISM AND CHALLENGES Sintija Broka ...................................................... 165 LATVIA’S TRANSATLANTICISM AND THE RISKS OF THE PRC’S ECONOMIC PRESENCE: A DILEMMA THAT DOES NOT EXIST Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova ..................................... 177 COOPERATION WITH DIASPORA: POLICIES AND PRACTICES IN THE CONDITIONS OF PANDEMIC Inta Mieriņa ...................................................... 183 THE GREEN DEAL, INTERCONNECTIONS AND THE TANGO OF ASTRAVETS Reinis Āboltiņš .................................................... 196 PUBLIC DIPLOMACY: ON THE WAY TO A VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENT Silvestrs Savickis .................................................. 206 SIDE VIEW REINVIGORATING THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE: THE ROLE OF THE BALTIC STATES Daniel S. Hamilton ................................................. 219 HOW TO UNDERSTAND WHO IS YOUR ALLY AND WHO IS YOUR OPPONENT: CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY LANDSCAPE FOR ESTONIA AND LATVIA Viljar Veebel ...................................................... 225 CONTRIBUTORS ................................................. 240 FOREWORD Andris Sprūds Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs | Professor at Rīga Stradiņš University The foreign policy and security environment of Latvia faced significant and unforeseen challenges in 2020. The global pandemic has profoundly affected the daily lives of people, as well as international relations. However, no matter how unexpectedly eventful this year has been, international and national foreign policy benchmarks remain invariably important. Therefore, in the annual Latvian Foreign and Security Policy Yearbook 2021, we continue to evaluate the events and decisions of 2020, as well as dare to outline the challenges and development scenarios of Latvia’s foreign and security policy in 2021, reflect on diplomatic opportunities, and offer actionable policy recommendations. Despite the obvious impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 has been a year saturated with current and significant events for Latvia. The US presidential elections, the violence of Lukashenko’s regime against the Belarusian people, Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, the controversial geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, the activities of Russia and Turkey, as well as the growing ambitions of China have all shaped the international environment of Latvia. The choices and interactions of the geopolitical foursome of the United States, China, Russia and the European Union will be an important factor influencing Latvia’s foreign policy opportunities and challenges in the nearest future. The United States remains an important ally for Latvia and a guarantor of NATO’s sustainability, therefore we can only wish for the newly elected president to overcome the challenges of domestic political polarisation and promote the reputation of a reliable leader operating in a strong transatlantic family. The meeting of NATO foreign ministers organised by Latvia in the spring of 2021 will provide a favourable platform for strengthening the solidarity of the Alliance and expressing Latvia’s position. The further development of the European Union is particularly important for Latvia. In 2020, the European Union experienced trajectories and instances of both border closures and solidarity. With the availability of a vaccine against COVID-19, a trade 5 agreement with Great Britain and an ally open to a dialogue in the White House, the development of the European Union could enter a new phase with seemingly more favourable waters. The European Union’s recovery plan demonstrates the ability of member states to agree on goals important to the community and provides an important tool for growth. Nevertheless, the internal ideological disagreements between individual member states, the change of leadership in Germany, as well as the tasks concerning the European Green Deal and digitisation will keep us busy in 2021. Following on from this, the development of global geopolitics and the background created by the pandemic will bring Latvia a number of new challenges and opportunities in the nearest future. The understanding and participation of Latvian society in the promotion of the country’s international role becomes an important precondition for the successful implementation of Latvia’s foreign and security policy. The Latvian Institute of International Affairs has trusted this task to a team of talented and professional experts, inviting them to look at and evaluate various foreign and security policy areas and their progress in 2020, as well as to consider development scenarios for 2021 in order to inform the public and offer recommendations to Latvian policy makers. This publication is a joint result of a successful partnership. This annual assessment would not have been possible without the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia. We are grateful to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for its long- standing trust and inspiring and productive cooperation. This cooperation promotes mutual understanding and dialogue between policy makers and implementers, think tanks, and the public. We also thank the Saeima, particularly the Committees on Foreign Affairs and European Affairs, for their support in drawing attention to foreign policy issues and informing the public. We deeply appreciate our cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which has been an invaluable partner of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, making a significant contribution to the development of an informed discussion. Finally, the Latvian Institute of International Affairs is grateful to its followers and readers. It is an honour that you follow
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