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Appendix C-1: Aviation Activity Forecast[PDF] GNOSS FIELD AIRPORT SUPPLEMENT TO THE FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT FINAL APPENDIX C-1 AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST This appendix includes the forecast of aviation activity for Gnoss Field Airport that was prepared for the Updated Purpose and Need Working Paper. The FAA approved this aviation forecast in February 2018 with the publication of the Updated Purpose and Need Working Paper. Landrum & Brown Appendix C-1 – Aviation Activity Forecast January 2020 Page C-1 - 1 GNOSS FIELD AIRPORT SUPPLEMENT TO THE FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT FINAL THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Landrum & Brown Appendix C-1 – Aviation Activity Forecast January 2020 Page C-1 - 2 APPENDIX C-1 AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST GNOSS FIELD AIRPORT Prepared By: Landrum & Brown February 2018 Page C-1 - 3 GNOSS FIELD AIRPORT AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST FINAL TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 1.0 Purpose and Context ......................................................................... 1 2.0 General Aviation Forecast Information ................................................. 2 2.1 Prior Forecasts ................................................................................. 3 2.1.1 1989 Airport Master Plan ................................................................... 3 3.0 Catchment Area ............................................................................... 4 4.0 Historical National and Local Trends .................................................... 4 4.1 National and Local Economy ............................................................... 4 4.2 Population ....................................................................................... 6 4.3 Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) ...................................................... 8 4.4 California Department of Transportation Economic Forecasts ................... 9 4.5 Association of Bay Area Governments Socio-Economic Forecasts .............. 9 4.6 Historical National GA Activity .......................................................... 10 4.7 FAA National Forecast ..................................................................... 11 4.8 Emerging Aircraft Ownership ............................................................ 14 4.9 Fleet Diversification ........................................................................ 14 4.10 Fuel Prices .................................................................................... 15 4.11 Business Use of General Aviation ...................................................... 16 5.0 Overview of San Francisco Bay Area’s GA Airports ............................... 17 5.1 Sonoma Valley Airport (0Q3)............................................................ 19 5.2 San Rafael Airport (CA35) ................................................................ 19 5.3 Napa County Airport (APC) .............................................................. 19 5.4 Buchanan Field Airport (CCR) ........................................................... 19 5.5 Half Moon Bay Airport (HAF) ............................................................ 19 5.6 Hayward Executive Airport (HWD) ..................................................... 20 5.7 Charles M. Schulz – Sonoma County Airport (STS) ............................... 20 5.8 Nut Tree Airport (VCB) .................................................................... 20 5.9 Petaluma Municipal Airport (O69)...................................................... 20 5.10 Sonoma Skypark (0Q9) ................................................................... 20 5.11 Rio Vista Municipal Airport (O88) ...................................................... 21 6.0 DVO Based Aircraft Information, Operations Information, Aviation Activity Forecast, and Critical Aircraft Determination ............................... 21 6.1 Based Aircraft Information and Based Aircraft Aviation Forecast ............. 21 6.2 Annual Operations Information and Annual Operations Aviation Forcast .. 23 6.3 Operational Fleet Mix Forecast .......................................................... 25 6.4 Critical Aircraft Determination .......................................................... 27 7.0 Peak Operations ............................................................................. 33 8.0 Comparison to FAA TAF ................................................................... 33 9.0 Forecast Scenarios ......................................................................... 35 Landrum & Brown Appendix C - Aviation Activity Forecast February 2018 Page i Page C-1 - 4 Page C-1 - 4 GNOSS FIELD AIRPORT AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST FINAL LIST OF TABLES PAGE Table 4-1 Population (in Thousands) .......................................................... 7 Table 4-2 Bay Area Forecasts ................................................................... 9 Table 4-3 U.S. Active General Aviation Aircraft .......................................... 13 Table 6-1 Based Aircraft Forecast ............................................................ 22 Table 6-2 Aircraft Operations Forecast ..................................................... 23 Table 6-3 Airport Reference Code ............................................................ 25 Table 6-4 DVO 2016 Aircraft Operations Documented By Airport Reference Code Using FAA Traffic Flow Management System Counts and Pilot-Aircraft Owner Interview Data ............................................................. 29 Table 6-5 Operational Fleet Mix Forecast .................................................. 31 Table 7-1 Peak Operations Forecast ......................................................... 33 Table 8-1 Forecast to TAF Comparison ..................................................... 34 Table 9-1 Summary of Forecast Scenarios ................................................ 35 LIST OF EXHIBITS PAGE Exhibit 4-1 National and Local Economic Growth ............................................ 6 Exhibit 4-2 Top 10 Counties in U.S. by PCPI .................................................. 8 Exhibit 4-3 GA Operations at U.S. Airports .................................................. 11 Exhibit 4-4 Crude Oil Prices (2016$) .......................................................... 16 Exhibit 5-1 San Francisco Bay Area’s GA Airports ......................................... 18 Exhibit 6-1 FAA Traffic Flow Management System Counts (TFMSC) Radar Data of Turboprop and Jet Aircraft Instrument Flight Rules ....................... 24 Exhibit 6-2 FAA Traffic Flow Management System CountS (TFMSC) Radar Data for Aircraft Fleet Mix at DVO .......................................................... 26 Exhibit 8-1 Forecast to TAF Comparison ..................................................... 34 Landrum & Brown Appendix C - Aviation Activity Forecast February 2018 Page ii Page C-1 - 5 Page C-1 - 5 GNOSS FIELD AIRPORT AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST FINAL 1.0 PURPOSE AND CONTEXT This report updates the aviation forecast provided in the April 2016 Gnoss Field Airport, Proposed Extension of Runway 13/31, Purpose and Need Working Paper, and presents the forecast of aviation demand for Gnoss Field Airport (DVO or the Airport). Aviation forecasts are prepared to estimate future demand for aviation activity. These estimates of future demand are used by airport operators, state transportation aviation departments, and the FAA in developing budgets and plans for future aviation infrastructure development. In order to identify future infrastructure development, the aviation forecast considers the number of “operations” (each takeoff or landing is one operation) that occur at an airport. An important additional factor in identifying appropriate future aviation infrastructure requirements is what is the most demanding or “critical aircraft” that regularly uses an airport. FAA AC 150/5000-17 Critical Aircraft and Regular Use Determination defines the critical aircraft as the most demanding aircraft type, or grouping of aircraft with similar characteristics, that make regular use of the airport. Regular use is 500 annual operations (an operation is a takeoff or landing), including both itinerant and local operations but excluding touch-and-go operations. The most “demanding” aircraft is that aircraft which, in terms of the physical dimensions of the airport, requires the largest length and width of runway, widest taxiway, largest separation distance between runways and taxiways, and other design standards recommended by FAA airport design guidance for aircraft that regularly operate at an airport. Larger aircraft can and do operate safely at airports designed for smaller aircraft, however the preferred operational situation for efficient use of an airport and enhanced safety is for the physical dimensions of an airport to match the physical dimensions identified in FAA design standards for the critical aircraft for that airport. At DVO, small piston-engine propeller aircraft account for most takeoffs and landings (operations) at the airport. DVO currently meets FAA airport design standards for these small airplanes. However, as described in this working paper, the current critical aircraft for DVO is a more demanding aircraft than the small piston-engine propeller aircraft that are the predominant users of the airport. DVO exclusively serves general aviation (GA) and air taxi activity and does not have any scheduled commercial passenger air service. The term “general aviation” refers to any aircraft not operated by the commercial airlines (passenger or cargo) or the military. Typical GA activity includes
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