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Central Asia the Caucasus CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS No. 1(55), 2009 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies 1(55) 2009 CA&CC Press® SWEDEN 1 No. 1(55), 2009FOUNDED AND PUBLISHEDCENTRAL ASIA AND BYTHE CAUCASUS INSTITUTE INSTITUTE O OR CENTRAL ASIAN AND STRATEGIC STUDIES O CAUCASIAN STUDIES THE CAUCASUS Registration number: 620720-0459 Registration number: M-770 State Administration for Ministry of Justice of Patents and Registration of Sweden Azerbaijan Republic PUBLISHING HOUSE CA&CC Press®. SWEDEN Registration number: 556699-5964 Journal registration number: 23 614 State Administration for Patents and Registration of Sweden E d i t o r i a l C o u n c i l Eldar Chairman of the Editorial Council ISMAILOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 497 12 22 E-mail: [email protected] Murad ESENOV Editor-in-Chief Tel./fax: (46) 920 62016 E-mail: [email protected] Jannatkhan Executive Secretary (Baku, Azerbaijan) EYVAZOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 499 11 73 E-mail: [email protected] Timur represents the journal in Kazakhstan (Astana) SHAYMERGENOV Tel./fax: (+7 - 701) 531 61 46 E-mail: [email protected] Leonid represents the journal in Kyrgyzstan (Bishkek) BONDARETS Tel.: (+996 - 312) 65-48-33 E-mail: [email protected] Jamila MAJIDOVA represents the journal in Tajikistan (Dushanbe) Tel.: (992 - 917) 72 81 79 E-mail: [email protected] Farkhad represents the journal in Uzbekistan (Tashkent) TOLIPOV Tel.: (9987-1) 125 43 22 E-mail: [email protected] Ziya KENGERLI represents the journal in Azerbaijan (Baku) Tel.: (+994 50) 3006694 E-mail: [email protected] Guram represents the journal in Georgia (Tbilisi) GOGIASHVILI Tel.: (995 - 32) 96 85 87 E-mail: [email protected] Sun ZHUANGZHI represents the journal in China (Beijing) Tel.: (86) 10-64039088 E-mail: [email protected] Konrad SCHÄFFLER represents the journal in Germany (Munich) Tel.: (49 - 89) 3003132 E-mail: [email protected] Vladimir MESAMED represents the journal in the Middle East (Jerusalem) Tel.: (972 - 2) 5882332 E-mail: [email protected] Irina EGOROVA represents the journal in the Russian Federation (Moscow) Tel.: (7 - 495) 3163146 E-mail: [email protected] Rustem ZHANGUZHIN represents the journal in Ukraine (Kiev) Tel.: (380-44) 524-79-132 E-mail: [email protected] CENTRAL ASIA AND THEE DCAUCASUS I T O R I A L B O A R D No. 1(55), 2009 Giuli ALASANIA Doctor of History, professor, Vice Rector of the International Black Sea University (Georgia) Bülent ARAS Doctor, Chair, Department of International Relations, Fatih University (Turkey) Mariam ARUNOVA Doctor of Political Science, leading research associate, Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS (Russian Federation) Garnik ASATRIAN Doctor of Philology, professor, head of the Department of Iranian Studies, Erevan State University (Armenia) Bakyt BESHIMOV Doctor of History, professor, Vice President, American University-Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) Ariel COHEN Doctor, leading analyst, The Heritage Foundation, U.S.A. (U.S.A.) William FIERMAN Doctor of Political Science, Professor of Indiana University (U.S.A.) Paul GOBLE Senior Advisor, Voice of America (U.S.A.) Sergei GRETSKY Doctor, Chair of Central Asian Studies, Foreign Service Institute, U.S. Department of State (U.S.A.) Xing GUANGCHENG Doctor of Political Science, professor, Deputy Director of the Institute for East European, Russian and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (China) Alexander IGNATENKO Doctor of Philosophy, specialist in Islamic studies, leading expert of the Institute of Social Systems, Moscow State University, member of the Council for Cooperation with Religious Associations under the Russian Federation President (Russian Federation) Ashurboi IMOMOV Ph.D. (Law), assistant professor, head of the Department of Constitutional Law, Tajik National University (Tajikistan) Lena JONSON Doctor, senior researcher, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (Sweden) Klara KHAFIZOVA Doctor of History, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies, professor at the International Relations and Foreign Policy Department, Kainar University (Kazakhstan) Jacob M. LANDAU Professor of Political Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel) S. Neil MACFARLANE Professor, Director, Center for International Studies, The University of Oxford (Great Britain) Alexei MALASHENKO Doctor of History, professor, Scholar-in-Residence, Ethnicity and Nation-Building Program Co-Chair, The Carnegie Moscow Center (Russian Federation) Abbas MALEKI Dr., Director General, International Institute for Caspian Studies (Iran) Akira Ph.D., History of Central Asia and the Caucasus, Program Officer, The Sasakawa Peace MATSUNAGA Foundation (Japan) Roger N. McDERMOTT Honorary Senior Research Fellow, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Kent at Canterbury (UK) Vitaly NAUMKIN Doctor of History, professor, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies of RF (Russian Federation) Yerengaip OMAROV Professor, Rector of Kainar University, President of the Academy of Natural Sciences, Republic of Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan) Vladimer PAPAVA Doctor of Economics, professor, Corresponding member of the Georgian Academy of Sciences, Senior Fellow of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Georgia) S. Frederick STARR Professor, Chairman, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University (U.S.A.) The materials that appear in the journal do not necessarily reflect the Editorial Board and the Editors’ opinion Editorial Office: CA&CC Press AB Hubertusstigen 9. 97455 Luleå SWEDEN WEB ADDRESS: http://www.ca-c.org © Central Asia and the Caucasus, 2009 © CA&CC Press®, 3 2009 No. 1(55), 2009 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies No. 1(55), 2009 IN THIS ISSUE: THE “FIVE-DAY WAR” AND PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN THE CAUCASUS Lasha IT DOES NOT TAKE A PROPHET: Tchantouridze. WAR AND PEACE IN THE CAUCASUS ........................................ 7 Kornely THE RUSSO-GEORGIAN FIVE-DAY WAR: Kakachia. THE PRICE TO BE PAID AND ITS UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ........................................... 12 Alexander THE AUGUST CRISIS Skakov. IN THE CAUCASUS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES ................................................................. 22 Savaº Genç. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE GEORGIAN-SOUTH OSSETIAN CONFLICT FOR TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY ....................................................... 33 RELIGION AND SOCIETY Mukhit Asanbaev, NEW FORM OF RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM Liazat Umirzakova. IN KAZAKHSTAN: DESTRUCTIVE SECTS AND CULTS ........................................... 42 4 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS No. 1(55), 2009 Igor Dobaev. THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS: SPREAD OF JIHAD ...................................................................... 49 REGIONAL POLITICS Pavel Varbanets. A TURKIC ALLIANCE: POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO TURKEY’S UNREALIZED EU MEMBERSHIP? .............................................. 57 Kenan THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT Allahverdiev. IN THE CONTEXT OF RETROSPECTIVE ETHNO-GEOPOLITICS ................................. 63 Gulsana THE GREATER Tulepbergenova. CENTRAL ASIA PROJECT: PRESENT STATE AND EVOLUTION ................................................................................. 74 Robert Guang Tian. XINJIANG AND ITS ROLE IN GREATER CENTRAL ASIAN REGIONAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION ............................................. 85 Marat Nurgaliev. JAPAN’S PROSPECTS IN THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION ........................................................................... 94 NATION-BUILDING Beka Chedia. DILEMMA OF THE GEORGIAN ELECTIONS: POLITICAL TRANSFORMATIONS OR A SLIDE TOWARD NON-LIBERAL DEMOCRACY ..................................................... 103 Lydia Karmazina. INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF THE PARTY SYSTEM IN KAZAKHSTAN AND RUSSIA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS (Part II) ......................................................................................... 115 Baktykhan THE FORMATION AND Torogeldieva. NATURE OF POLITICAL CULTURE IN PRESENT-DAY KYRGYZSTAN .............................................. 126 5 No. 1(55), 2009 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Ghelman CIVIL NATION Akhmedov. IN THE CONTEXT OF NATIONAL CONSCIOUSNESS: THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN .............................................. 134 FOR YOUR INFORMATION The Special Feature section in the next issue will discuss: n Security Issues in Central Eurasia n Russia, the U.S., and the EU: Their Policy in Central Eurasia n CIS, EurAsEC, GUAM, and BSECO Regional Organizations: Their Role in the Integration Processes in Central Eurasia 6 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS No. 1(55), 2009 THE“FIVE-DAY WAR” AND PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN THE CAUCASUS IT DOES NOT TAKE A PROPHET: WAR AND PEACE IN THE CAUCASUS Lasha TCHANTOURIDZE Ph.D., Research Associate and Adjunct Professor, Center for Defense and Security Studies, University of Manitoba (Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada) as the August 2008 war between Russia nuity when it comes to behavior of its actors. and Georgia, which resulted into a dis- Despite weaknesses and problems unleashed by W memberment of Georgia, predictable and the era of globalization, nation-states remain the avoidable? Supporters and ideological allies of the main actors of the international system. Surviv- current Georgian government have insisted that al continues to be the main value for these ac- those who criticize the alertness and behavior of tors, and the system guides the nation-states or the Saakashvili administration are looking at this those who act on their
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