N°22 -December 6 2007 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS KYRGYZSTAN P. 1 KYRGYZSTAN c Wariness Reigns Ahead of December 16 Election c Wariness Reigns Ahead of December 16 Election Can President Kurmanbek Bakiev and his entourage refrain from taking all the seats in the P. 2&3 GEORGIA Jogorku Kenesh when snap parliamentary elections are held on December 16? Will they be able to re- c Election Campaign and frain from taking advantage of administrative resources after having set up exceptionally restrictive ru- Political Maneuvering in les for the game? Given that his position is hardly as solid as that of Vladimir Putin and Nursultan Na- Georgia zarbaev, will Bakiev be capable of sharing power ? DEFENSE P. 4 c Kazakhstan Builds its Caspian Sea Fleet The possible misuse of power is what is feared by most of the twelve parties vying for the 90 seats at stake, on a party list system, even though the potential is there to make this election one of the ALERT c Kazakhstan to Preside most contested that the young republic has ever known. The parliamentary election could usher in ei- OSCE in 2010 ther a renewal of political turmoil, or the end of the chaos that has reigned since the fall of President Akaev in March 2005. There is nothing to encourage an optimistic outlook. On November 28, Prime Mi- nister Almaz Atambaev, head of the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), resigned from his READ ALSO… government post. According to the party’s secretary, Edil Baisalov, the Prime Minister threw in the RUSSIA INTELLIGENCE towel because he “told President Bakiev to his face that Ak Jol (his party, “the bright path”) and go- www.russia-intelligence.fr vernment officials were interfering in the election process.” Many members of political parties and KREMLIN NGOs condemn the ruling coalition’s use of administrative resources and of the media. The state tele- c Half-tinted election vision channel, KTR, headed by Melis Eshimkanov, a man devoted body and soul to the President af- triumph ter having been, until last April, his fiercest opponent, refuses to grant “publicity” slots to Ak Jol’s ele- ALERT ven rivals. He also refuses to hold a live debate. c Yevgeny Shkolov, or the "Dresden connection" in the On December 3, six important parties, speaking through Kubatbek Baibolov, n°2 on the list Interior ministry of Ata Meken, “questioned the credibility of the Central Electoral Commission” (CEC), threatening FOCUS legal proceedings against its members and its chairwoman, Klara Kabilova, former press secretary to c The strange confession by the President and a native, like himself, of Dzhalalabad. A simple letter from the Interior Ministry as- Oleg Shwartzman king for more information concerning the citizenship of 16 of the 84 candidates on the list of Watan BEHIND THE SCENE (“Nation”) was, in the eyes of the CEC, sufficient reason to eliminate this “Uzbek” party from the race. c Vladimir Zhirinovsky : the little secrets behind an elec- It was a convenient way for the authorities to sideline Kadirzhan Batirov and Davran Sabirov - their tion list rivals within the Uzbek community – and to take their votes, since minorities often vote for the ruling METALS, MINES party. Meanwhile, the CEC does not penalize Ak Jol for the blatant irregularities it commits. But what c Norilsk Nickel in the eye of has led to the most criticism and even prompted threats of an election boycott is the CEC’s interpreta- the cyclone tion of what constitutes the threshold for winning seats in the Jogorku Kenesh. On November 19, it de- TELECOMS cided that the 0.5% threshold that the parties must obtain in each oblast (region) of the country is not c Fridman and Reyman bury to be based on the number of registered voters in each region, but on voters nationwide. This sets the the hatchet bar very high and will prevent several of the parties from entering Parliament, even if they do obtain the 5% required on the national level. UKRAINE INTELLIGENCE www.ukraine-intelligence.fr Former Secretary of State Adakhan Madumarov, n°2 on the list of Ak Jol has no qualms “If GOVERNMENT any party fears that it will not obtain the necessary number of votes to bypass this half a percentage c Towards a Yatsenyuk- barrier, then it does not have the right to call itself a national political party and to form a council Timoshenko « Ticket » ? of ministers.” The rule has prompted the parties to form coalitions. Two of the main opposition par- ENERGY ties, Ata Meken, led by Omurbek Tekebaev and Ak-Shoumkar, led by Kubatbek Baibolov, merged to- c Ukraine Faces Gas gether for the occasion. It was no easy task establishing the list, with the “powerful” wishing to enter Dilemma Once Again parliament to protect their businesses. The job was made even more difficult because quotas have been established for women, the young and ethnic minorities. However, in the end, money was the main cri- SUBSCRIPTION teria for establishing the lists. Thus Jenichbek Nazaraliev, the rich and famous doctor specializing in Electronic Edition the treatment of drug addiction and alcoholism, practically bought Asaba from Azimbek Beknazarov, (PDF, published every two weeks, who was relegated to second place on the list of his own party which includes very few of its members. 23 issues per year) And despite his popularity, Edil Baisalov is relegated to 13th place on the list of the PSDK. Those run- SPECIAL OFFER ning for parliament are very worried. Apart from Ak Jol, only Ata Meken and the PSDK have a slight Discount 15 % chance of sitting on the Jogorku Kenesh. Former Prime Minister Felix Kulov, n°1 on the list of Ar Na- €600 mys, has hardly any illusions. It is likely that many will be discontent if Kurmanbek Bakiev is not wil- €510 per year ling to share power. d A EURASIAN INTELLIGENCE PUBLICATION CENTRAL ASIA & CASPIAN INTELLIGENCE GEORGIA c Election Campaign and Political Maneuvering in Tbilisi After a nine-day state of emergency, Georgia has now entered In the backdrop, difficult relation with Russia an election campaign period. The coming weeks will be decisive in determining the country’s developments, its geopolitical posi- The Georgian government continues to denounce bitterly tion as well as the balance of power between the spheres of influ- what it sees as “the hand of Moscow” and accuses the Kremlin ence vying for control. of orchestrating these attempts at political destabilization in order to hold up Georgian membership to NATO (Georgia hopes A turbulent election campaign to join the Membership Action Plan at the summit in Bucharest in April 2008) and prevent it from regaining control over the On November 8, President Mikhail Saakashvili announced separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It is com- that a presidential election is to take place on January 5, 2008. mon knowledge that Russian-Georgian relations have deterio- Along with the election, there will be a referendum asking each rated since 2006. Russia’s ban on Georgian wine and produce, citizen to chose a date for the legislative election (spring or au- its postal and road blockade, its deportation of thousands of tumn 2008) and to decide on whether Georgia should join NATO. Georgians from Russia and the many reciprocal accusations of In accordance with the country’s legislation, the outgoing Presi- espionage have inflamed an already complex situation. dent resigned from his post in order to stand as a candidate for a second mandate. Parliament Speaker Nino Burdzhanadze has On November 13, Moscow vacated the Batumi military base taken over as acting Head of State. In a bid to tone down criticism and handed it back to Georgia before schedule - an agreement from the opposition, Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli, who had signed in 2005 stipulated the closing of the base justified the use of force against demonstrators, was dismissed in 2008. The situation remains uncertain for the and replaced by Lado Gurgenidze, Chairman of the Board of the Gudauta military base - one of the centers of the Bank of Georgia. As a businessman who is loyal to the ruling power, Abkhaz-Georgian conflict in the 1990s - as the Gurgenidze is meant to serve as a counterexample to oligarch 10th airborne peace keeping unit has still not been Badri Patarkatsishvili by proving that that “business” can work given orders to evacuate. Despite the visible with- Mikhail in favor of the central government and not in competition with it. Saakashvili drawal of the Russian military from Georgia, the Georgian Minister for Conflict Resolution, David Bakradze, The fact that early elections are being organized, a demand re- President accused Moscow of stockpiling military equip- peatedly expressed by the opposition for months, is interpreted ment in Abkhazia over recent weeks. He claims as a political concession showing that the President is willing to that hundreds of men, in particular Chechens working for Russ- compromise. However, the fact is that the short time span for ian military intelligence, had entered the country through the preparing the election plays in favor of Saakashvili, since it allows Black Sea port of Ochamchira. him to limit the duration of the campaign and therefore to limit the extent to which the opposition can organize itself. Moreover, It is obvious that Moscow takes advantage of Georgia’s polit- thanks to the early election, the outgoing President avoids com- ical and economic weakness to apply pressure on it. Georgia’s petition from his main opponent, former Defense Minister Irakli membership to NATO would be a first for a CIS nation and would Okruashvili, one of the leaders of the opposition, who cannot run weaken Russia’s geopolitical status in the post-Soviet arena.