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Prnger Og Kreditt 2/2006 Penger og Kreditt 2 06 juni Penger og Kreditt utgis hvert kvartal av Norges Bank, Oslo Abonnement: Kr 250 pr. år (inkl. mva) Bestilling kan foretas over Internett: norges-bank.no, under «publikasjoner» eller ved henvendelse til: Norges Bank, Abonnementservice Postboks 1179 Sentrum 0107 Oslo Telefon: 22 31 63 83 Telefaks: 22 41 31 05 E-post: [email protected] Ansv.redaktør: Svein Gjedrem Redaksjonssekretær: Jens Olav Sporastøyl Redaksjonsutvalg: Arild J. Lund, Finansiell stabilitet Helge Eide, Sentralbanksjefens stab for kapitalforvaltning Gunnvald Grønvik, Finansmarkedsavdelingen Kåre Hagelund, Økonomisk avdeling Nils Tore Eide, Stab og fellestjenester 74 Bent Vale, Forskningsavdelingen Steinar Selnes, Norges Bank Kapitalforvaltning Redaksjonens adresse: Standardtegn i tabeller: Norges Bank, Informasjonsseksjonen . Tall kan ikke forekomme Boks 1179 Sentrum .. Oppgave mangler 0107 Oslo ... Oppgave mangler foreløpig Telefaks: 22 31 64 10 -Null Telefon: 22 31 60 00 0 Mindre enn en halv av den Internett: www.norges-bank.no 0,0} brukte enhet De synspunkter som fremkommer i signerte artikler i denne publikasjonen, representerer artikkelforfatterens egen oppfatning og kan ikke tas som uttrykk for Norges Banks standpunkt til de forskjellige spørsmål. Ettertrykk med kildeangivelse er tillatt. Omslag og grafisk utforming: Grid Strategisk Design AS Sats og trykk: Tellus Works AS Teksten er satt med 10½ pkt. Times Penger og Kreditt trykkes på miljøvennlig svanemerket papir ISSN-0332-5598 Norges Banks adresser m.v. Postadresse Telefon Telefaks Hovedkontoret, Oslo Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo 22 31 60 00 22 41 31 05 New York 17 State Street, New York, NY 10004 21 2269 8050 London Queensberry House 20 7968 2000 20 7321 2060 3 Old Burlington Street London W1S 3AE, England Norges Banks Seddeltrykkeri Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo 22 31 60 00 22 31 66 58 Bruk internettabonnement på Penger og Kreditt Penger og Kreditt legges ut på Norges Banks internettsider ca. en uke før det kommer til abonnentene i posten. Det er mulig å bestille varsling med e-post når tidsskriftet er tilgjengelig på web. Fra bankens hjemmeside (www.Norges-Bank.no) gjøres det ved å klikke på knappen «Abonnement» i topplinjen og følge veiledningen der. Der kan man også abonnere på varsling om annen informasjon fra sentralbanken. Penger og Kreditt 2/2006 Penger og Kreditt Nr.2/juni 2006/årg.34 Prognosearbeidet i Norges Bank . 76 Arne Kloster og Kristin Solberg-Johansen Norges Banks prognoser for den økonomiske utviklingen er en viktig del av grunnlaget for pengepolitikken. Anslagene for de økonomiske størrelsene og for renteutviklingen er gjensidig avhengige av hverandre. I arbeidet med anslagene bruker banken både informasjon om den løpende økonomiske utviklingen, skjønn og ulike økonomiske modeller. Artikkelen beskriver arbeidet med prognosene, hvor vi først vurderer den aktuelle økonomiske situasjonen og utviklingen de nærmeste kvartalene, for deretter å ta stilling til hvordan drivkreftene i økonomien antas å virke på lengre sikt. Corporate governance – i et nøtteskall . 87 B. Espen Eckbo Artikkelen gir en kort historisk oversikt over sentrale temaer innen dagens corporate governance-debatt, med fokus spesielt på USA og Europa. Behovet for beskyttelse av minoritetsaksjonærenes interesser fremheves, og det vises til markedskrefter som medvirker til slik beskyttelse. Forfatteren presenterer hovedpunkter og økonomiske resonnementer i governance-debatten og avslutter med anbefalinger for et aktivt pensjonsfond som er opptatt av å beskytte sine finansielle interesser på lang sikt. 75 Aksjemarkedets mikrostruktur – betyr det noe? . 100 Randi Næs og Johannes Skjeltorp Mikrostrukturmodeller skiller seg fra tradisjonelle finansmodeller ved å åpne for at lovlig informasjon om underliggende selskapsverdier kan være ulikt fordelt og analysert mellom markedsaktørene. Litteraturen på fagområdet argumenterer for at både informasjonsrisiko – som følge av asymmetrisk informasjon – og for- skjeller i likviditet over tid og mellom selskaper har betydning for langsiktige likevektspriser i markedet. Artikkelen gir en innføring i og oversikt over denne litteraturen. Ordrestrømsanalyse av valutakurser . 110 Dagfinn Rime og Elvira Sojli Artikkelen forklarer teorien som ligger til grunn for å bruke data fra verdipapirhandel i empiriske anvendelser. Det fokuseres på problemstillinger knyttet til valutamarkedet, men teorien har gyldighet også for andre ver- dipapirmarkeder. Tilnærmingen blir illustrert ved å bruke data fra den nye valutahandelsstatistikken til Norges Bank. Vi finner at verdipapirhandelsdata kan bidra til å forstå valutakursutviklingen CDO-er: Nye muligheter for å investere i kredittmarkedet . 116 Ketil Johan Rakkestad og Sindre Weme Omsettelige instrumenter for overføring av og handel med kredittrisiko er blitt stadig mer utbredt de senere årene. Denne artikkelen tar spesielt for seg én klasse av slike instrumenter, såkalte Collateralized Debt Obligations. CDO-er er gjeldsinstrumenter med pant i, eller referanse til en portefølje av en eller flere typer verdipapirer eller lån, der risikoen overføres til CDO-investoren. De siste to årene har markedet vokst kraf- tig både i USA og Europa, men CDO-er er foreløpig svært lite utbredt i Norge. Finansielle størrelser og utviklingen i realøkonomien . 129 Karsten R. Gerdrup, Roger Hammersland og Bjørn E. Naug Artikkelen vurderer om finansielle variable er egnet som ledende indikatorer for produksjonsgapet og BNP- veksten for Fastlands-Norge. Forfatterne finner at boligpriser, aksjekurser, kredittvekst, pengemengdevekst, korte realrenter og differansen mellom lange og korte renter kan fungere som ledende indikatorer. Produksjonsgapet er sterkest korrelert med kredittveksten til bedrifter og den sykliske variasjonen i aksje- kursene. Disse variablene inkluderes derfor i en prognosemodell for BNP. Modellen føyer godt og har stabi- le koeffisienter. Nytt på nett fra Norges Bank . 143 Oversikt over virkemiddelbruk overfor finansinstitusjonene . 145 Auksjonskalendere og opplegg for statspapirene 2006 . 146 Tabeller . 147 Redaksjonen avsluttet: 13. juni 2006 Penger og Kreditt 2/2006 Prognosearbeidet i Norges Bank Arne Kloster, assisterende direktør, og Kristin Solberg-Johansen, konsulent, Økonomisk avdeling i Norges Bank1 Norges Banks prognoser for den økonomiske utviklingen er en viktig del av grunnlaget for pengepolitikken. Anslagene for de økonomiske størrelsene og Norges Banks prognose for renteutviklingen er gjensidig avhengige av hverandre. I arbeidet med anslagene bruker vi både løpende informasjon om den økonomiske utviklingen, skjønn og ulike økonomiske modeller. Vi vurderer først den aktuelle økonomiske situasjonen og utviklingen de nærmeste kvartalene, for deretter å ta stilling til hvordan drivkreftene i økonomien antas å virke på lengre sikt. Artikkelen beskriver arbeidet med prognosene. 1. Innledning Figur 1 Norges Banks system for prognoser og Norges Banks prognoser er en viktig del av pengepoli- politikkanalyse tikken. I arbeidet med prognosene analyserer vi den aktuelle økonomiske situasjonen og hvilke drivkrefter Nåsituasjon 76 som vil virke på økonomien fremover. Siden + kort sikt Regionalt Produksjonsgap og nettverk Inflasjonsrapport 3/2005 har prognosene for etterspør- Eksogene inflasjon anslag sel, produksjon og inflasjon vært basert på Norges Int. utv., Banks eget anslag for utviklingen i renten. Prognosene finanspol., Kjernemodell for renten og de andre økonomiske variablene avhenger oljeinvest. produksjonsgap, Skjønn og inflasjon, rente, kvalitativ gjensidig av hverandre: Renten påvirker utviklingen i Andre valutakurs informasjon produksjon og inflasjon, samtidig som renteutviklingen teoretiske og må vurderes på grunnlag av prognosene for produksjon empiriske Alternative modeller Detaljerte anslag og inflasjon. De indikerer om renteprognosen gir en god scenarier avveiing mellom hensynene pengepolitikken skal legge vekt på. Anslagene for renten og de andre størrelsene Politikk utarbeides derfor simultant, i en prosess med mange ite- rasjoner2. Formålet med denne artikkelen er å gi innsikt i prog- nosearbeidet i Norges Bank og beskrive fremgangsmå- utviklingen på kort sikt er nærmere omtalt i del 2. Del 3 ten som ligger bak anslagene som publiseres i infla- beskriver fremgangsmåten for å anslå utviklingen len- sjonsrapportene. Artikkelen tar for seg de ulike stadiene ger fram. i arbeidet og hvilke verktøy vi bruker. Hovedvekten vil være på fremgangsmåten.3 2. Analyse av nåsituasjonen og Strukturen i prognosearbeidet er illustrert i figur 1. utviklingen på kort sikt Anslagene for utviklingen fremover bygger særlig på to premisser. Det første er en vurdering av den aktuelle økonomiske situasjonen og anslag for utviklingen på Nåsituasjonen kort sikt. Det andre er anslag for eksogene størrelser – de vi må bestemme utenfor vårt modellapparat. Basert Anslagene i inflasjonsrapportene er basert på en utvik- på disse premissene utarbeider vi, ved hjelp av vår ling i styringsrenten som etter hovedstyrets vurdering makroøkonomiske kjernemodell, et første sett med gir en rimelig avveiing av de hensyn pengepolitikken anslag for utviklingen i produksjon, inflasjon, rente og skal ivareta. For å kunne anslå den fremtidige økono- valutakurs. Prognosene i inflasjonsrapportene omfatter miske utviklingen på en måte som gir best mulig grunn- et bredere sett av økonomiske variable. De formes lag for disse vurderingene, er det avgjørende at vi har en gjennom en iterasjonsprosess mellom anslag med god analyse av den aktuelle
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