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Blominvest Bank S.A.L BLOMINVEST BANK S.A.L. Economic Research Department “The Lebanon Brief” can be accessed via Internet at the following web address: http://www.blom.com.lb The Lebanon Brief Issue No. 426 4 April, 2005 – 9 April, 2005 Highlights of the Week Economic Statistics…...………………..…..……….p.6-10 q Total Money Supply (M3) Down $151m q Airport Activity Up by 2.3% up to March 2005 q Sales of New Cars Dropped by 22% up to March 2005 q Trade Defi cit Up by 29.3% up to February 2005 q BoP Registers $784m Deficit in February 2005 q Coincident Indicator Down 0.4% in January 2005 q Bank Loans to Private Sector Down by 1.3% in January 2005 q Consumer and Food Basket Prices Up by 1.39% in January 2005 q Cement Deliveries Down 17% in January 2005 Weekly Developments………….....…..………….…………...p.11 q $278m Advances to EdL and MoE q Lebanon Wins 17 out of 45 Pan Arab Web Awards Lebanon in the World....……….....…..……...……....p.12 q Lebanon Ranks 11th in Competitiveness Among Arab Countries Corporate News ……………….....…..……....……....p.13 q BLOM Distributes 2004 Dividends q Solidere’s Net Profits Reached $54.1m in 2004 q BLOM Contributes $1m to the Assistance Fund q Credit Libanais Signs a Credit Line Agreement with ATFP q Lebanese Canadian Bank Offers Joint Account with ADCB q MDSL Launches New Banking Software BLOMINVEST Bank S.A.L. 1 The Lebanon Brief Issue No. 426 4 April, 2005 – 9 April, 2005 EQUITY MARKET Stock Market 08/04/05 01/04/05 % Change BLOM Stock Index † 680.49 688.01 (1.09%) Total Volume Traded 182,103 1,186,061 (84.65%) Total Value Traded $2,515,783 $11,796,603 (78.67%) †22 January 1996 = 1000 BLOM STOCK INDEX Yearly Evolution Hi 710.12 730 700 670 640 610 580 Lo 498.38 550 520 490 460 430 400 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 Apr - May - Jun - Jul - Aug - Sep - Oct - Nov - Dec - Jan - Feb - Mar - Apr - Activity on the Beirut Stock Exchange retreated this week as the total value of traded shares dropped to nearly $2.5m dispersed among nine different stocks. Accordingly, the BLOM Stock Index Markets took a similar path retreating week-on-week by nearly 8 points to close at 688.01 amid four losing stocks, three non-movers and two gainers. Banking Sector Mkt 08/04/05 01/04/05 % Change BLOM (GDR) BSE $31.00 $30.00 3.33% BLOM (GDR) LSE $30.01 $30.01 0.00% Audi (C) BSE --- --- --- BSE $29.50 $29.50 0.00% Audi (GDR) LSE $28.50 $28.50 0.00% Audi (GDR) Byblos (C) BSE $1.58 $1.58 0.00% Byblos Preferred BSE $104.00 $104.00 0.00% Bank of Beirut (C) BSE $8.00 $7.96 0.50% Bank of Beirut Pref. BSE $11.35 $11.35 0.00% BLC (C) BSE $2.94 $2.94 0.00% BLC (GDR) Lux --- --- --- Fransabank (B) OTC $1.30 $1.30 0.00% BEMO (C) BSE $3.45 $3.45 0.00% On the banking front, BLOM’s GDR price increased by 3.33% to $31 on total value of around $115,000. Similarly, Bank of Beirut’s common shares’ price rose by 0.50% to $8.00 on a single trade worth $960. On the other hand, the price of Byblos common shares stabilized at $1.58 on one trade worth $1,580. Internationally, both BLOM’s and Audi’s GDRs stabilized at $30.01 and $28.50 respectively. Financial BLOMINVEST Bank S.A.L. 2 The Lebanon Brief Issue No. 426 4 April, 2005 – 9 April, 2005 Real Estate Mkt 08/04/05 01/04/05 % Change Solidere (A) BSE $8.74 $8.91 (1.91%) BSE $8.68 $8.90 (2.47%) Solidere (B) Solidere (GDR) LSE $9.58 $10.50 (8.76%) Financial Both classes of Solidere ended losing ground this week. The “A” shares saw their price edging down by 1.91% to $8.74 on a total value of approximately $1m. In turn, the price of the “B” class retreated by 2.47% to $8.68 on a value approaching $403,000. It is to note that Solidere’s net profits reached $54m in 2004. This rise in profits was largely attributable to the new selling strategy adopted by the company where shareholders could buy property at a discount through stock payments. Internationally, the company’s GDR regressed by 8.76% to $9.58. Manufacturing Sector Mkt 08/04/05 01/04/05 % Change HOLCIM Liban BSE $0.78 $0.78 0.00% BSE $1.15 $1.15 0.00% Ciments Blancs (B) Ciments Blancs (N) BSE $1.50 $1.50 0.00% Uniceramic (A) BSE $1.40 $1.40 0.00% Uniceramic (C) BSE $1.75 $1.75 0.00% None of the five stocks in the manufacturing sector exchanged hands this week. Mkt 08/04/05 01/04/05 % Change Funds Lebanon Holdings BSE $4.75 $4.75 0.00% Beirut Interbank Fund BSE $99.00 $101.00 (1.98%) Markets BSE $99.00 $99.50 (0.50%) Beirut Global Income Beirut Lira Fund BSE LP99,500 LP99,500 0.00% Beirut Golden Income BSE LP99,500 LP99,500 0.00% Retail Sector RYMCO BSE $1.10 $1.10 0.00% ABC (New) OTC $13.50 $13.50 0.00% Tourism Sector Casino Du Liban OTC $165.00 $165.00 0.00% SGHL OTC $5.00 $5.00 0.00% The price of locally listed fund Beirut Global Income declined by 0.50% to $99.00 on one single trade worth $128,250. Similarly, the share price of Beirut Interbank Fund declined by 1.98% to $99.00 on a trade of 825 shares. As for LBP-dominated funds, both the share prices of Beirut Lira Fund and Beirut Golden Income stabilized at LBP 99,500 ($66) on a total volume of 11,200 and 206 shares respectively. On the retail front, car retailer RYMCO did not register any trade this week. BLOMINVEST Bank S.A.L. 3 The Lebanon Brief Issue No. 426 4 April, 2005 – 9 April, 2005 FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET Foreign Exchange Market 08/04/05 01/04/05 % Change LP / Dollar 1,507.5 1,507.5 0.00% Dollar / Euro 1.2936 1.2907 0.22% Yen / Dollar 108.19 107.58 0.57% Dollar / Sterling 1.8850 1.8811 0.21% The local foreign exchange market remains affected by the ambiguous political situation, however at a much lower pace amid the slightly positive signs of adjustment on the national level. The Central Bank maintained its intervention policy selling the US dollar at the highest band range of LP/$1,514. In Interbank trading, the green currency was exchanged at LP/$ 1,514-1,515. MONEY MARKET Money Market Rates 08/04/05 01/04/05 b.p. Change 11.50% 10.40% 110 Interbank Average‡ BDL 45-day CD 4.40% 4.40% 0 BDL 60-day CD 4.89% 4.89% 0 Treasury Yields 31/03/05 24/03/05 b.p. Change 3-M TB yield 5.22% 5.22% 0 6-M TB yield 7.24% 6.31% 15 12-M TB yield 6.69% 6.69% 0 24-M TB coupon 7.74% 7.74% 0 36-M TB coupon 8.68% 8.68% 0 ‡day-to-day rate Markets Trading activity in the money market increased by 110 b.p. with the interbank overnight rate averaging 11.50% this week compared to 10.40% last week, still indicating a shortage in local currency liquidity at commercial banks. th March 24 TB auction resulted in a LP2.57bn ($1.7m) surplus of purchase subscriptions over maturities, with nominal subscriptions amounting to LP4.4bn ($2.9m) in short, medium and long-term papers. This surplus came despite a 57% decrease in the value of maturing bills to LP1.85bn ($1.23m). 3-years papers dominated 81% of total subscriptions during the th March 24 auction, at a rate of 8.68%. They were followed by 2- years papers which covered 15.5% at 7.74%, while 2.5% were in 6-M TBs at 6.31%, and 0.5% were in 12-M TBs at 6.69%. Accordingly, the weighted effective yield decreased by 37b.p. on a weekly basis to 8.69%. For the sixth consecutive week, the Central Bank did not sell any Certificates of Deposits. It is worth noting that the portfolio of outstanding CDs sold by BDL nearly stands at LP9,750bn. Financial BLOMINVEST Bank S.A.L. 4 The Lebanon Brief Issue No. 426 4 April, 2005 – 9 April, 2005 EUROBOND MARKET Reuters Lebanese Government Bond Index 08/04/05 01/04/05 % Change Reuters Bond Index 150.77 149.50 0.85% Lebanese Government Eurobonds Maturity-Coupon Currency 08/04/05 Weekly Mid-Yield Financial Mid-Price Change % 2005 -8.750% USD 100.875 0.00% 6.37% 2005 -9.375% USD 100.625 0.00% 5.94% 2006 -9.875% USD 103.250 0.00% 6.55% 2006-10.500% USD 103.750 0.00% 6.78% 2006- 8.875% EUR 103.250 0.00% 8.87% 2007 -8.625% USD 103.250 0.00% 7.15% 2008 -10.125% USD 107.500 0.00% 7.52% 2009 -7.25% EUR 99.750 0.00% 7.32% 2009-10.25% USD 108.500 0.00% 7.96% 2009-5.885% USD 98.250 0.00% 6.32% 2009 -7.00% USD 98.000 0.00% 7.51% 2010 -7.125% USD 98.250 0.00% 7.56% 2011 -7.875% USD 99.000 0.00% 8.08% 2012-7.75% USD 98.250 0.00% 8.07% 2016 -11.625% USD 114.500 0.00% 9.48% BLOM Bond Index Maturity-Coupon Currency 08/04/05 01/04/05 Weekly Change % BLOM Bond Index † 97.93 97.93 0.00% Total Volume Traded 0 0 Total Value Traded $0 $0 †7 April 2004 = 100 In the Eurobond market, the government short, medium and long- term bonds experienced a decline in their prices earlier this week and rose gradually thereafter.
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