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Tourism Gaining Ground As Real Estate and Construction Lag Behind

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Tourism Gaining Ground As Real Estate and Construction Lag Behind N°31 | April 2015 Page 3 Tourism gaining ground as real Beirut’s hotel occupancy rate may reach 49% in 2015 estate and construction lag behind Page 4 Growth unlikely to exceed The start of 2015 is pointing to a reversal of fortune for key economic sectors in 2.2% in 2015, risks titled to the Lebanon. Real estate and construction activity appear to be running out of steam, after maintaining robust activity in the face of economic headwinds in recent years. downside - IIF Page 5 On the other hand, tourism, the laggard of the past few years, is beneting from relative Lebanon’s exports to rise in domestic stability in the security situation to stage a moderate recovery in the early months 2015, service exports may of 2015. Low fuel prices, in addition to a depreciating Euro, are also increasing disposable reach $17bn income and improving the purchasing power of Lebanese consumers, who will likely be the main driver of economic activity during the year. Public nances will likely improve as well Page 6 over the priod. Banking activity may slow in 2015 REAL ESTATE AND FINANCIAL ACTIVITY SLOWING Real estate transactions fell by 27.6% yoy to $1bn in the rst two months of the year, and Page 7 the number of transactions dropped by 26.7% yoy to 7,531 over the same period. While it Latest data for Lebanon’s key is not unusual for the real estate market to have a slow start of the year and then end on a economic sectors high note, risks appear titled to the downside. Page 8 Construction permits issued by Lebanon’s two orders of engineers are 18.61% yoy lower Key trends in the Lebanese at 1.81m sqm through February, reecting waning appetite among developers amid economy prolonged domestic political instability and the conict in neighboring Syria. Only 1,966 permits were issued throughout the two months, the fewest for the period in six years. Real estate prices have stagnated in recent months, and in some cases dropped slightly amid sluggish demand, according to RAMCO, a real estate advisory rm. However, the market remains dominated by self-funded developers and end-user buyers with a very slim minority speculative investments, which keeps the market in check, stated RAMCO. The new car market witnessed slower sales activity at the start of 2015. An estimated 4,579 new passenger cars were registered in the rst two months, 7.15% yoy fewer than the same period in 2014. The total number of registered new and used imported cars fell by 9% yoy partly as a result of new BdL regulations requiring a minimum down payment of 25% Several brands, including Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Land Rover, for car loans. However, several brands, including Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Land Rover, and and Porsche still reported Porsche still reported double-digit growth in their sales volumes through February. double-digit growth in their sales volumes through February. Cars imported and sold (12m moving average) Real estate transactions (Jan-Feb, $bn) Cars imported (LHS) Passenger car sales (RHS) 1.38 100,000 40,000 1.16 1.00 75,000 35,000 0.92 For any enquiries please contact us at: 50,000 30,000 Economic Research Department, Societe Generale de Banque au Liban Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 2012 2013 2014 2015 [email protected] Source: PoB, AIA, Economena, SGBL Research Source: Cadastre, Economena, SGBL Research +961-1-483001 Ext. 11458 page 1 Although healthy, growth in bank loans and deposits has slowed in recent months, and may remain relatively subdued for the rest of the year on the back of a fragile recovery and in part due to decreasing liquidity in oil-exporting countries. A slowdown in non-resident deposit inows contributed to a widening of the balance of payments decit to $280.2 in January from $31.3m during the same month in 2014. Still, remittance inows will not decrease, even though a signicant portion is estimated to come from oil-exporting countries, according to Standard & Poor’s (S&P), a ratings agency. Bank prots from the domestic market may also slow as a result of new BdL collective provisioning requirements and a tight interest spread environment. Alpha Group banks, the 14 with deposits in excess of $2bn, had managed to increase their prots by a robust 9.13% to $1.87bn in 2014, but most of the gains came from branches and subsidiaries in foreign markets. Interest rates in Lebanon are not expected to increase in Nevertheless, interest rates in Lebanon are not expected to increase in 2015, even with a 2015, even with a possible 0.5% possible 0.5% rise in US rates in late 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance rise in US rates in late 2015. (IIF). The BdL stimulus package and any capital inows in excess of the country’s nancing needs would help ease interest rates amid a period of disination, stated the IIF. The Central Bank announced plans to issue 30-year local and foreign currency CDs to absorb liquidity and promote national savings, indicating that markets remain adequately liquid. TOURISM, CONSUMPTION, AND PUBLIC FINANCES IMPROVING Lower oil pricesshould ease pressure on the Lebanon’s scal and current account decits. In particular, the Lebanese government stands to gain an estimated 2% of GDP from the drop in oil prices on lower transfers to the electricity company, thereby helping reduce the scal decit to 7.5% of GDP in 2015 from 12.5% in 2014, according to Moody’s. But, only broad reform of the energy sector would lower medium-term scal vulnerability stemming from volatile oil prices, stated Moody’s. The ratings agency expects oil prices to average $55 per barrel in 2015 and to rise again to $65 in 2016. The drop in fuel prices may help keep ination in check in 2015 as well. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was down 2.1% in the rst two months of the year, although its components showed diverging price trends. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which comprise 20.6% of the basket of goods, rose by 1.57% through February, while prices of transportation, at 13.1% of total, declined by 6.08% over the same period, according to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS). CPI growth may slow to 1% in 2015 from an estimated 3.4% in 2014, according to S&P. Exports are expected to regain at least some of their lost ground in 2015, with the IIF forecasting Exports are expected to regain at least some of their lost ground a modest 3.2% improvement in exports in 2015 and 7% in 2016. A recent sharp depreciation in in 2015, with the IIF forecasting a the Euro may reduce the competitiveness of some Lebanese products, but only 8.8% of exports modest 3.2% improvement in were destined for the Euro area in 2014. exports in 2015 and 7% in 2016. The tourism sector has been the largest beneciary of improved security in recent months. Tourist arrivals have been rising for nine consecutive months, including an increase of 20.5% yoy to 175,859 visitors in the rst two months of 2015. As a result, occupancy rates at Beirut’s 4- and 5-star hotels rebounded to 52% from only 39% over the same period in 2014, ahead of rates in Manama, Amman, and Cairo. However, occupancy rates at Beirut’s three-star hotels and above are still projected to lag behind those in most Arab cities in 2015, according to Consumer Price Index (February, % ytd) Exports in 2014 Food & beverages 1.6% Restaurant & hotels 0.5% Eurozone, Furnishings and maint. 0.5% 8.9% Alcohol & tobacco 0.1% Recreation & amusement 0.1% Education 0.0% Communication -0.1% National -2.1% Health -3.0% Housing, utilities, and fuel -3.1% Transportation -6.1% Other, Clothing and footwear -8.5% 91.1% Source: CAS, Economena, SGBL Research Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research page 2 TOURISM Beirut’s hotel occupancy rate may reach 49% in 2015 A resurgence in tourist arrivals from the Gulf, Iraq, and Egypt is bringing some life back to Beirut’s hotels so far in 2015. The tourism sector showed double-digit Hotel forecasts for 2015 increases in virtually every indicator in the rst two months of the year, including the (3-, 4-, and 5-star) number of tourists, occupancy rates, room rates, and airport trafc. Occupancy (%) Occupancy rates at 3-, 4-, and 5-star hotels along with high quality serviced apartments in Dubai Marina 81% Beirut are projected to average 49% during the full year 2015, according to Colliers Dubai Creek 80% International, a real estate consultancy. Beirut’s occupancy rate is expected to lag behind virtually all major Arab cities, including Cairo where occupancy may hit 52% and the Doha West Bay 79% Revenues Per Available Room (RevPAR) may rise by 28% to $65 during the year. Beirut’s Dubai Sheikh Zayed 78% RevPAR is projected to reach $78, a 1% increase over 2014, with an Average Daily Rate Abu Dhabi City 76% (ADR) of $158, stated Colliers. Elsewhere, Colliers sees occupancy rates for the year at Jeddah 76% 62% in Amman, at 58% in Manama, and at 52% in Kuwait City in 2015. Sharjah 75% Doha City Centre 73% Beirut’s 4- and 5-star hotels had reported an increase in their occupancy rates to 52% in Sharm El Sheikh 67% the rst two months of 2015, compared with 39% over the same period in 2014, data collected by Ernst & Young showed.
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