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Lebanon Sovereign Ratings Rating Agency Tenor Rating Outlook Standard & Poor's Long-Term B- Stable Short-Term C

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Lebanon Sovereign Ratings Rating Agency Tenor Rating Outlook Standard & Poor's Long-Term B- Stable Short-Term C Credit Libanais Research SUMMARY SHEET OCTOBER 2009 Main Macro Economic Indicators Key Trends & Ratios 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP GDP At Current Prices (USD Millions) 21,861 22,438 25,047 28,942 31,298* Real GDP Growth 1.10% 0.60% 7.50% 8.50% 7.00%* GDP per Capita At Current Prices (USD) 59,880 6,060* 6,677* 7,617* 8,132* Public Finance (2) Net Public Debt (USD Millions) 34,756 37,418 39,020 41,500 43,051 Gross Public Debt / GDP Ratio 175.70% 179.90% 167.80% 162.50% N.A. Debt Service / Net Public Debt Ratio 6.74% 8.08% 8.40% 7.92% N.A. (2) Total Deficit (USD Millions) (1,856) (3,027) (2,545) (2,922) (1,715) (2) Total Deficit / Total Expenditures Ratio 27.42% 38.42% 30.49% 29.45% 25.22% Total Deficit / GDP Ratio 8.61% 13.49% 10.16% 10.10% N.A. External Sector (2) Balance of Trade (USD Millions) (7,460) (7,115) (8,999) (12,658) (7,297) Foreign Direct Investments (USD Millions)** 2,624 2,675 2,731 3,606 N.A. FDI / GDP Ratio 12.00% 11.92% 10.90% 12.46% N.A. Foreign Reserves (4) Foreign Assets (USD Millions) 11,657 12,975 12,395 19,732 25,688 (2) Foreign Currency Reserves (USD Millions) 9,845 10,207 9,778 17,062 22,012 (4) Gold Reserves (USD Millions) 4,736 5,807 7,640 8,032 9,246 (4) Total Reserves (USD Millions) 16,394 18,782 20,035 27,764 34,934 Money Supply (3) Broad Money Supply "M2" (USD Billions) 16.23 15.57 16.47 24.76 31.37 Monetization Level (M2 / GDP Ratio) 74.24% 69.39% 65.76% 85.55% N.A. Republic Of Lebanon Sovereign Ratings Rating Agency Tenor Rating Outlook Standard & Poor's Long-term B- Stable short-term C Moody's Investors Service Ltd Long-term B2 Stable Fitch IBCA Ltd Long-term B- Stable short-term B Source: Ministry of Finance: Debt & Debt Markets Reports Q2, 2009 (1) As At End of June 2009, (2) As At End of July 2009, (3) As At September 17, 2009 (4) As At End Of September 2009 *IMF Estimates, **UNCTAD figures Image Source: BDL OVERVIEW The Lebanese economy continues to prosper in 2009, Finally, the increasing confidence in the Lebanese economy notwithstanding the rippling effects of the global financial allied with the remarkable improvement in Lebanon’s major crisis and propagating World economic recession. Main economic indicators may entitle the Lebanese government to indicators remain solid, thanks to a regained level of refinance at cheaper rates, and eventually reduce debt confidence in the economy, a strong banking sector, a prudent servicing, as a first step towards tackling the lingering debt Central Bank and an unprecedented rebound in tourism overhang. activity. More particularly, Lebanon presented a unique example amid the global financial crisis managing to achieve a STRENGTHS OF THE LEBANESE ECONOMY consensus real GDP growth rate in excess of 8% in 2008, when paradoxically, regional and international economies The Lebanese economy enjoys a set of attributes which play a lowered their respective growth expectations in 2008 to major role in accentuating growth and luring prospective negative and near zero levels. The year 2009 was no investors. Said attributes include, among other things, the exception for the Lebanese economy, with latest estimates “laissez-faire” nature of the economy, the soundness of the projecting real GDP growth at 7%, despite the intensification Lebanese banking system, the country’s clean record on debt of the global crisis and the prevalence of a World recessionary servicing, the high level of international confidence environment in the first tier of the year, thus eclipsing the materializing in international aid conferences, positive balance negative 1.1% anticipated growth of the global economy. The of payment figures and ample foreign reserves. resilience of the Lebanese banking sector, unarguably the backbone of the Lebanese economy, to domestic and Complementing the aforementioned attributes is an array of international shocks coupled with the vibrant 2008 and 2009 investment incentives which serve to increase the appeal of tourism seasons in the aftermath of the Doha accord and investing in Lebanon in terms of lack of barriers on foreign investments, apart from some restrictions on real estate Country Report - Lebanon smooth 2009 parliamentary elections, were the major drivers enabling Lebanon to weather, and oddly enough to benefit, investments, free mobility and repatriation of capital in from the mammoth financial storm. The unparalleled resiliency addition to a series of tax cuts and exemptions applicable to of the banking sector to the global crisis was the fruitful result investments in certain businesses. of the Lebanese Central Bank’s astute policies and stringent regulations. The credit also goes to Lebanese banks which Said factors undoubtedly prepare for a better investment succeeded at maintaining solid profitability levels, healthy climate which, in its turn, will act as a catalyst for spurring liquidity ratios and a strong capital adequacy without economic growth. tampering asset quality, with total consolidated banking sector FUTURE PROSPECTS assets attaining $105.38 billion through July 2009 up from $90.10 billion just one year earlier. A major impediment to a The vigorous performance of the Lebanese economy in 2008 sustainable economic growth, however, pivots around the and first half of 2009 demonstrated an unprecedented piling debt burden and the ensuing high debt to GDP ratio, resiliency to regional and international tensions. In this which is considered to be one of the highest in the World, background, and in light of the consecutive upward GDP standing at 162.5% in 2008. Lebanon remains captive, revisions which raised Lebanon’s 2009 real GDP growth though, of a vicious circle of a recurrent budget deficit, owing estimate from 3% to 7%, we can expect the Lebanese mainly to the burdensome debt service, and a mushrooming economy to post a stellar performance in 2009 and the near debt. The government, however, is striving to tackle this issue future, backed by the stunning level of capital inflows, a vivid by organizing international aid conferences, which extended a tourism season and a pick up in investment activity. Said lifeline to the Lebanese economy during periods of crisis, with performance, however, should be complemented with major the latest aid convention, the Paris III conference, amassing reforms on the economic, political and bureaucratic fronts in some $7.532 billion in pledged soft loans and grants. an endeavor to further stimulate economic activity. CREDIT LIBANAIS RESEARCH UNIT Research: Credit Libanais Research Unit E-mail: [email protected] Phone/Fax: +961 1 326 786 IMPORTANT NOTICE This economic research publication has been prepared by the Research unit at Credit Libanais s.a.l on the basis of published information and other sources which are deemed reliable. It is intended for limited use only and its distribution is strictly prohibited. Credit Libanais does not make any warranty or representation, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the materials contained herein. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitute, or are to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell investments. Opinions and data expressed herein are subject to change without notice. CREDIT LIBANAIS RESEARCH UNIT TABLE OF CONTENTS I. DEMOGRAPHIC AND POLITICAL STRUCTURE 1 A. DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE 1 B. POLITICAL STRUCTURE 3 II. ATTRIBUTES OF THE LEBANESE ECONOMY 4 III. MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS 8 A. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 8 1) GDP COMPOSITION 8 2) GDP EVOLUTION 9 B. PUBLIC FINANCE 15 1) PUBLIC DEBT 15 a) OVERVIEW 15 b) TREASURY BILLS 16 c) EUROBONDS 18 2) FISCAL PERFORMANCE 22 3) TAXATION 26 4) 2009 BUDGET LAW 28 5) FOREIGN AID 30 C. MONETARY POLICY 35 1) EXCHANGE RATE REGIME 38 2) INFLATION 39 3) MONETARY AGGREGATES 39 D. EXTERNAL SECTOR 41 1) BALANCE OF TRADE 41 2) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 45 3) FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) 47 E. IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION WITH LEBANON 50 F. RECAP OF LEBANON’S MAJOR INDICATORS 51 G. COMPARATIVE POSITIONING MATRIX 52 IV. SECTORS OF THE LEBANESE ECONOMY 53 A. AGRICULTURE 53 B. INDUSTRY 57 C. HOSPITALITY & TOURISM 60 D. REAL ESTATE & CONSTRUCTION 63 1) DEMAND AGGREGATES 63 2) SUPPLY AGGREGATES 65 CREDIT LIBANAIS RESEARCH UNIT 3) THE LEBANESE COMPANY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND RECONSTRUCTION OF BEIRUT CENTRAL DISTRICT (SOLIDERE) 66 E. THE LEBANESE BANKING SECTOR 67 1) OVERVIEW 67 2) CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET 69 3) BANKING SECTOR PROFITABILITY 75 4) BANKING SECTOR RATING HIGHLIGHTS 76 5) ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANKING SECTOR 77 a) CHECK CLEARING 77 b) PAYMENT CARDS 78 c) INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT 80 6) THE LEBANESE CENTRAL BANK 81 a) THE ROLE OF THE LEBANESE CENTRAL BANK 81 b) REGULATIONS BINDING THE OPERATIONS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN LEBANON 82 c) SUBSIDIES 83 d) FIGHTING MONEY LAUNDERING 86 e) CENTRAL BANK’S BALANCE SHEET 87 7) REGIONAL EXPANSION OF THE LEBANESE BANKING SECTOR 90 F. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 91 1) OVERVIEW 91 2) ACTIVITIES 94 3) LAWS & REGULATIONS 95 G. TELECOMMUNICATIONS SECTOR 96 H. AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR 98 I. OTHER PUBLIC ENTERPRISES 99 1) THE BEIRUT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 99 2) THE BEIRUT PORT 100 V. THE BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE 101 A. DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING MARKETS 101 B. LISTED COMPANIES 101 C. TRADING MECHANISM 102 D. PERFORMANCE OF THE BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE IN 2008 103 E. PERFORMANCE OF THE BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE IN 2009 105 1) ANALYSIS OF TRADING ACTIVITY THROUGH AUGUST 2009 105 2) EVOLUTION OF MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF LISTED STOCKS 107 3) EVOLUTION OF RELATIVE BENCHMARKS OF LISTED BANKING STOCKS 109 VI.
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