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Weekly Market Watch Issue No. 677 February 1 – February 7, 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS LEBANON NEWS ECONOMIC INSIGHTS LEBANON RANKS LAST AMONGST EMERGING MARKETS IN EXTERNAL DEBT > LEBANON RANKS LAST AMONGST EMERGING MARKETS IN EXTERNAL DEBT RETURN IN JANUARY 2020 RETURN IN JANUARY 2020 1 > INSURANCE PREMIUMS DOWN BY 0.22% Y-O-Y BY SEPTEMBER 2019 2 Lebanon’s return on the external > BDL’ S BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS SHOW DULL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY sovereign debt stood at a negative IN Q3-2019 3 16.08% in January 2020, poising it to > FINANCIAL SECTOR’S UTILIZED CREDITS REACH $65.41 BILLION occupy the last position among 13 MENA BY SEPTEMBER 2019 4 > FINANCIAL SECTOR’S SECURITIES PORTFOLIO AT $3.08 BILLION BY countries included in Merrill Lynch’s JUNE 2019 5 external debt EM sovereign bond index. > C OMMERCIAL BANKS’ ASSETS AT $216.78 BILLION BY END OF YEAR 2019 6 INSURANCE PREMIUMS DOWN BY > CONSOLIDATED ASSETS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT $1.38 BILLION 0.22% Y-O-Y BY SEPTEMBER 2019 BY END OF 2019 7 Written insurance premiums dropped by > COMBINED ASSETS OF INVESTMENT BANKS AT $5.14 BILLION IN DECEMBER 2019 8 0.22% on an annual basis to $1,260.98 ss > THE LEBANESE FINANCIAL SECTOR’S NET FOREIGN ASSETS DROP BY million in the first nine months of 2019, $4.35 BILLION IN 2019 9 down from $1,263.72 million during the > WEIGHTED AVERAGE INTEREST RATE ON LBP DEPOSITS AT 7.36% IN same period in 2018. DECEMBER 2019 9 > THE COINCIDENT INDICATOR DOWN BY 11.57% Y-O-Y IN DECEMBER FINANCIAL SECTOR’S UTILIZED 2019 10 CREDITS REACH $65.41 BILLION BY > CEMENT DELIVERIES DOWN BY 31.88% IN 2019 10 SEPTEMBER 2019 > BDL ISSUES INTERMEDIATE CIRCULARS NO. 542 & 543 11 > OPENED LETTERS OF CREDITS DOWN BY 15.27% IN 2019 12 The financial sector’s utilized credits fell > NUMBER OF PAYMENT CARDS AT 3.04 MILLION AT END OF YEAR 2019 13 by 6.36% y-o-y to nearly $65.41 billion in > TRIPOLI PORT ACTIVITY UP BY 17.48% Y-O-Y BY NOVEMBER 2019 14 the first nine of 2019, down from around $69.85 billion in the same period in 2018. MONETARY PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SECTOR’S SECURITIES > MONETARY AGGREGATES 15 PORTFOLIO AT $3.08 BILLION BY JUNE > MONEY MARKETS 15 2019 The net value of the securities portfolio LEBANESE EQUITIES on the books of the Lebanese financial > LEBANESE EQUITIES & CREDIT LIBANAIS INDICES 16 sector (banks and financial institutions) depreciated by 13.48% during the first half of 2019 to $3.08 billion, from $3.56 LEBANON'S ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL SECTOR INDICATORS 18 billion at year-end 2018. LEBANON'S RATINGS 19 COMMERCIAL BANKS’ ASSETS AT $216.78 BILLION BY END OF YEAR 2019 The combined balance sheet of commercial banks operating in Lebanon contracted by 13.11% during the year 2019 to $216.78 billion, down from $249.48 billion in December 2018 owing to an accounting treatment of netting LBP loans from and placements with the Central Bank. Weekly Market Watch ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: 01-608000 FAX: 01-608231 SYNOPSIS OF TERMS "ABL" Association of Banks in Lebanon "BDL" Banque Du Liban "BOP" Balance of Payment "BSE" Beirut Stock Exchange "CLASI" Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index "CLFI" Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index "CLCI" Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index "CPI" Consumer Price Index “EIU” Economist Intelligence Unit “EOY” End of Year "GDRs" Global Depositary Receipts "GDP" Gross Domestic Product "IMF" The International Monetary Fund "LBP" The Lebanese Pound "M1" Currency in Circulation + Demand Deposits in LBP "M2" M1 + Other Deposits in LBP "M3" M2 + Deposits in Foreign Currencies "M4" M3+ Treasury Bills Held by Non-Banking System Including Accrued Interests "MENA" Middle East and North Africa "MOF" The Lebanese Ministry of Finance "Moody's" Moody's Investors Service "P/E" Price to Earnings Multiple "P/BV" Price to Book Multiple "PPI" Producer Price Index "TEU" Twenty-Foot-Equivalent Unit "USD" The United States Dollar "Y-O-Y" Year-on-Year "YTD" Year to Date "YTD Price Performance" Yield to Date Price Appreciation “LE “ Weekly Market Watch ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: 01-608000 FAX: 01-608231 LEBANON NEWS LEBANON RANKS LAST AMONGST EMERGING MARKETS IN EXTERNAL DEBT RETURN IN JANUARY 2020 According to the monthly “High Yield & Emerging Market Profiles” report published by Merrill Lynch, the return on Lebanon’s external debt stood at a negative 16.08% during the month of January 2020, compared to 0.58% in December 2019. Said dismal result in January can be attributed to the absence of any tangible reforms and the persistent street riots in spite of the formation of a new government. This poises Lebanon to occupy the last position globally in the external debt EM sovereign bond index in terms of total return. Turkey topped the regional list with a total return of 5.10%, followed by Egypt (2.54%) and Jordan (2.21%) only to name a few. It is worth highlighting that these returns are not risk-adjusted, which explains the fact that countries offering high sovereign yields have high Option Adjusted Spreads (OAS) as sketched in the table below, lowering as such the risk adjusted returns. When factoring in all emerging economies in the Merrill Lynch index, however, Suriname emerges as the best performer with a sovereign return of 9.69%. Lebanon’s excess return reached a negative 17.70% in January 2020, the lowest among surveyed MENA countries, noting that it recorded the highest OAS of 3,413 basis points (bps) amongst all emerging economies. The OAS on Lebanon’s External Sovereign debt came higher than the 2,627 bps level reported in December 2019. The weight assigned to Lebanon in Merrill Lynch’s Emerging Markets’ external debt index dropped to 0.85% in January 2020 down from 1.04% in the previous month, as captured in the following analysis: Lebanon's Sovereign External Debt Month of Month of December January 2019 2020 Returns (%) 0.58 -16.08 Excess Return (%) 0.78 -17.70 Option Adjusted Spreads (bps) 2,627 3,413 Lebanon's Weight in the Index (%) 1.04 0.85 Source: M errill Lynch, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Total Return on Sovereign External Debt in MENA Countries in January 2020 Excess Country Returns (%) MENA Rank OAS (bps) MENA Rank Return (%) Turkey 5.10 1 332 2.73 1 Egypt 2.54 2 424 0.03 2 Jordan 2.21 3 372 -0.82 3 Saudi Arabia 2.16 4 119 -1.38 7 Qatar 1.83 5 105 -2.02 9 U.A.E. 1.43 6 97 -1.79 8 Morocco 1.00 7 137 -1.21 6 Kuwait 0.86 8 71 -0.93 5 Oman 0.40 9 334 -2.11 10 Tunisia 0.09 10 656 -0.86 4 Bahrain 0.05 11 268 -2.34 12 Iraq -1.02 12 544 -2.12 11 Lebanon -16.08 13 3,413 -17.70 13 Source: M errill Lynch, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Weekly Market Watch 1 SOURCE: MERRILL LYNCH, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT LEBANON NEWS INSURANCE PREMIUMS DOWN BY 0.22% Y-O-Y BY SEPTEMBER 2019 The Association of Insurance Companies in Lebanon (ACAL) released its quarterly report on the performance of the Lebanese insurance sector, conveying a 0.22% annual drop in written insurance premiums to $1,260.98 million in the first nine months of 2019, down from $1,263.72 million during the same period in 2018. Said drop was mainly buoyed by an 8% contraction in workmen insurance premiums, coupled with a 7% dip in motor insurance premiums and a 4% drop in life insurance premiums, which altogether outweighed the 9% increase in medical insurance premiums, the 6% rise in cargo insurance premiums and the 1% uptick in fire insurance premiums among others. Concurrently, the report uncovered a rise in the share of non-life insurance premiums to 72.1% by September 2019, from 70.5% a year before. On the other hand, the share of life insurance premiums slightly narrowed to 27.9% of total written premiums, from 29.5% over the same period in 2018. Performance of the Lebanese Insurance Sector YTD Sep- YTD Sep- % Change 2018 2019 Gross Written Premium (Million USD) 1,263.72 1,260.98 -0.22% Total Indemnities Paid to Beneficiaries (Million USD) 896.73 766.12 -14.57% Source: ACAL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Breakdown of Insurance Premiums as at End of Insurance Premiums Annual Growth by Segment as at end of September 2019 September 2019 Life 9% 6% Insurance 10% 27.9% 8% 6% 1% 4% 2% 0% -2% Life Insurance Medical Fire Insurance Workmen Motor Cargo Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance Non-Life -4% -4% Insurance -6% -8% 72.1% -8% -7% Source: ACAL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Source: ACAL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit “Medical Insurance Premiums” constituted the lion’s share (34.9%) of total written premiums, followed by “Life Insurance” (27.9%), “Motor Insurance” (20.8%), and “Fire Insurance” (6.7%) only to name a few. In parallel, the report indicated that insurance indemnities paid on policyholders’ claims plunged by 14.57% y-o- y to about $766.12 million by end of September 2019, with “Medical Claims” and “Life Claims” accounting for 42.1% and 27.7% of total insurance claims on a respective basis, followed by “Motor” (20.4%) claims among others. Breakdown of Insurance Claims by Segment as at End of Breakdown of Insurance Premiums by Segment as at End September 2019 of September 2019 Workmen Cargo Insurance Cargo Insurance 0.8% Others Others 3.6% Workmen Insurance 2.8% Insurance 2.2% 4.5% Medical Insurance Fire Insurance Medical 3.0% 2.6% Insurance 34.9% 42.1% Fire Insurance 6.7% Life Insurance 27.7% Motor Insurance 20.8% Life Insurance Motor Insurance 27.9% 20.4% Source: ACAL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Source: ACAL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Weekly Market Watch SOURCE: ACAL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 2 LEBANON NEWS BDL’S BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS SHOW DULL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN Q3-2019 The Lebanese Central Bank released its “Business Survey” report pertaining to the third quarter of 2019 in which it assesses a set of macroeconomic indicators based on the opinions of corporate managers through a poll addressing the performance of their respective businesses.
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