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Iran Case File (April 2019)
IRAN CASE FILE November 2019 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies Follow us www.rasanah-iiis.org The Executive Summary ......................................................................................4 Internal Affairs ....................................................................................................9 The Ideological File .....................................................................................................10 I. Iranian Clerics Denouncing the Protests in Iraq ................................................................10 II. Najaf and Its Anti-Iranian Position ...................................................................................11 III. Indications and Dimensions ........................................................................................... 13 The Political File ......................................................................................................... 14 I. Victims and Financial Losses ............................................................................................ 14 II. Official Reactions ............................................................................................................ 15 III. The Reformists’ Position on the Protests ......................................................................... 16 The Economic File ....................................................................................................... 18 I. The Impact of US Sanctions on the Iranian Economy ....................................................... -
Russia and Iran in Syria— a Random Partnership Or an Enduring Alliance? an Interim Report
Atlantic Council RAFIK HARIRI CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST ISSUE BRIEF Russia and Iran in Syria— a Random Partnership or an Enduring Alliance? An interim report JUNE 2019 AMBASSADOR MICHEL DUCLOS Russia and Iran are allies in Syria not out of mutual sympathy, but for pragmatic reasons. According to many reports, Iranian leaders—nota- bly including Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Al-Quds force of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC)—were instrumental in convinc- ing Vladimir Putin to send his air force to Syria and save Bashar al-As- sad’s skin in September 2015.1 However, various episodes highlight the limits of what looks like a circumstantial alliance. On February 26, 2019, Assad was received in Tehran by Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution, in a setting evidently designed to showcase the Syrian dictator’s per- sonal allegiance to the supreme leader and his debt of gratitude to the IRGC.2 On the very same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was once again in Moscow, where he met with President Putin.3 The asymmetric priorities in Tehran and Moscow could not seem clearer. A few months earlier, on May 9, 2018, Netanyahu attended the parade on Red Square, alongside Putin, on the anniversary of the end of World War Two ( the “Great Patriotic War” in Russian parlance).4 The follow- 1 Laila Bassam and Tom Perry, “‘Send Qassem Soleimani’: Here’s how Putin and Iran Plotted Out Their New Assault in Syria,” Reuters, October 6, 2015, https:// www.businessinsider.fr/us/r-how-iranian-general-plotted-out-syrian-assault-in- moscow-2015-10. -
The Evolution of the Revolution
The Evolution of the Revolution THE CHANGING NATURE OF IRAN’S AXIS OF RESISTANCE KENNETH M. POLLACK MARCH 2020 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE Executive Summary ince the earliest days after the 1979 Islamic Soleimani in January 2020 could significantly impede S Revolution, the Iranian regime has sought to build further progress. a coalition across the Middle East to help it achieve its As it stands currently, the Axis is comprised of ideological and geostrategic goals. Tehran understood both state and non-state actors. These groups include that its ability to secure the Islamic Republic in Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Popular Front for the Liber- overturn the regional status quo, drive out the United ation of Palestine–General Command (PFLP-GC), States, and make Iran the regional hegemon was lim- Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and occasionally the ited if it acted on its own. It could only succeed with Kurdistan Workers’ Party. State and quasi-state actors the help of others. openly aligned with Tehran include Hamas in Gaza, However, for the next two decades, the Axis was Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, and the Houthis little more than rhetoric, ascribing greater unity in Yemen. of effort to an amalgam of states,semi-states , and Ultimately, the new operating method of Iran’s non-state actors than was ever the reality. It was pri- Axis of Resistance is a strategy born of necessity. It marily a psychological ploy to frighten its adversaries is a strategy of the weak, unlikely to succeed against and make its members feel less isolated in the face the strong except when they are badly constrained of American hostility. -
February 16 – February 28
February 16 – February 28 CONTENTS Foreword (General Observations).………………………………………......3 Americas……………………………………………………………………….6 Arms Control and Disarmament……………………………………………12 China and East Asia………………………………………………………….16 Europe…………………………………………………………………….......18 Global Terrorism…………………………………………………………….22 Middle East & West Asia……………………………………………………24 South Asia (I)…………………………………………………………………31 South Asia (II)………………………………………………………………..37 United Nations…………..................................................................................40 2 Area Briefs: 15-28 February, 2019 General Observations Pakistan • On February 28 PM Imran Khan announced Pakistan’s decision to release captured IAF Pilot Abhi Nandan as a gesture of peace. In response Indian officials suggested that Pakistan’s move was an empty ploy that ignored the real problem between the two countries. According to New Delhi even if the captured pilot were returned home, there would be no chance “to go back to zero” and easing tensions would be impossible until Pakistan acted against terrorist groups that it has been using as proxies against India. • Prime Minister Imran Khan reiterated the importance of the Kashmir issue which lies at the roots of all bilateral issues between India and Pakistan. On February 27, 2019, the Indian government summoned the Pakistani Envoy and handed over a demarche demanding the “immediate and safe return” of the captured pilot. The US, China, Britain and other world powers have urged restraint on both sides as tensions continue to escalate between India and Pakistan. Meanwhile, Turkey said that it supports Pakistan’s position, and rejected the accusations leveled by India on Pakistan that it was behind the Pulwama attack. • There is now growing unease within Pakistan that tensions may lead to war given the Modi government’s aggressive posturing. Meanwhile India has suffered glaring contradictions during the past few days. -
The Rise of Iran: an Identity Fight to Challenge the Existing Power Establishment Contesting US Hegemony, Israeli, and Sunni Powers in the Middle East
International Journal of Liberal Arts and Social Science ISSN: 2307-924X www.ijlass.org The Rise of Iran: An Identity Fight to Challenge the Existing Power Establishment Contesting US Hegemony, Israeli, and Sunni Powers in the Middle East. Lina Haddad Kreidie, PhD University of Ca, Irvine faculty, is currently teaching at the American University of Beirut classes on Psychology of International conflict, Islamic political thought, and Iranian politics. Extensive work on identity politics and has presented at many academic conferences such International Society of Political Psychology, WAPSA, among others on “ fighting Identities: Sectarian Narrative in the Construction of Collective Identity in a Religiously Diverse Countries.” Some of her publications include a chapter on “Deciphering the Construals of Islamic Fundamentalists” in The Future of Identity, Edited by Ken Hoover; and on “The psychological dimensions of Ethnic conflict in the International Journal of Politics, Culture and Society. Vincent Bozonier Education: BA Political Science in International Affairs; BA in Sociology (both from UC Riverside); and a certificate degree in Middle Eastern Studies at UC Irvine. Abstract Since the 1979 Islamic revolution, Iran is actively engaged in challenging the existing establishments to include the United States, Israel, and pro-American Sunni powers. The Iranian political maneuvering produced a ripple of waves over the years, specifically as Iraq became the first Arab-Shiite dominated state, the alliance and support of Hezbollah in its 2006 war with Israel, and its cunning management of its nuclear energy program. Amidst the current Middle East geopolitical restructuring; Iran continues to pose as a major regional player. This paper argues that Iran’s strategies has been based on three main identity narratives: (1) the global fight of the Oppressed against the Oppressor; (2) the regional discourse of Islamism; and (3) the particularistic dialogue that empowers the Shiites of the region following Khomeini’s contemporary Velayat-e faqih concept. -
THE NEXT WAR: How Another Conflict Between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides Are Preparing for It
ANALYSIS PAPER Number 24, August 2011 THE NEXT WAR: How Another Conflict between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides are Preparing for It Bilal Y. Saab Nicholas Blanford The Brookings Institution is a private non-profit organization. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public. The conclusions and recommendations of any Brookings publication are solely those of its author(s), and do not reflect the views of the Institution, its management, or its other scholars. Copyright © 2011 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 www.brookings.edu ANALYSIS PAPER Number 24, August 2011 THE NEXT WAR: How Another Conflict between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides are Preparing for It Bilal Y. Saab Nicholas Blanford Table of Contents Executive Summary . iii Acknowledgements . vi The Authors . vii Introduction . 1 Potential Return to Arms . 3 Hizballah Prepares for War . 6 Israel Prepares for War . 14 Conclusion . 20 THE NEXT WAR The Saban Center at BROOKINGS ii Executive Summary ebanon and Israel have enjoyed a rare calm waged between them, and both sides have been in the five years since the August 14, 2006 feverishly preparing for the next war ever since the ceasefire that brought an end to that sum- last one ended. Lmer’s month-long war, the fiercest ever action waged between Hizballah and the Israel Defense Hizballah’s Posture Forces (IDF). Since the end of the 2006 war, Hizballah has under- Both sides drew sharp lessons from the 2006 conflict. -
The Case of the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry Pauline Crepy Edited by Cassandra Moschella and Madeleine Northfeld
FLUX: International Relations Review Proxy Warfare’s Impact on Sectarianization: The Case of the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry Pauline Crepy edited by Cassandra Moschella and Madeleine Northfeld 22 23 FLUX: International Relations Review Cover art: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have committed a school the region or makes inroads with Western powers, it has to come at the expense bus bombing in Yemen in August 2018, killing 40 children. In response, an event of the other” (Robins-Early 2017). of blue backpacks was held in Chicago, IL, to remember the loss of these children. In order to attain such infuence in the region, one wonders what makes the Source: Charles Edward Miller. November 30, 2018, https://fic.kr/p/R9emBy. Middle East susceptible to the strategy of proxy warfare. Within the context of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, the power of religious identity has occupied a central role Tis article was submitted to POLI 360: War and Peace. in the permeability of neighboring states to indirect warfare. In efect, the rivals recognize the possibility for political gain in the confict between the Sunnis Abstract and Shi’as and capitalize on pre-existing sectarian tensions to gain regional Te Saudi Arabian and Iranian rivalry has torn the Middle East apart, dominance. To better understand the prevalence of proxy warfare in the Middle aggravating the region’s struggles concerning persistent authoritarianism, East, one must turn to the sectarianization thesis; sectarianization is “an active militia violence, and sectarian tensions. Tis paper explores the impact of proxy process shaped by political actors operating within specifc contexts, pursuing warfare on sectarianization by studying the case of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry in political goals that involve the mobilization of popular sentiments around both Syria and Yemen. -
Iran's Israel Policy
Iran’s Israel Policy Iran-Israel Conflict 1. Iran-Israel do not border each other and they’re well over a thousand miles from each other 2. Iran-Israel have no major bilateral claims toward one another 3. Historical memory of Persian-Judaic interactions is largely positive 4. Streets in Israel are named for Cyrus the Great, who allowed the Jews to return to Judea from their Babilonian exile in 538 BC. 5. Large Arab neighbors of Iran, like Iraq or Saudi Arabia, might be considered its natural competitors, Israel cannot. Israel and Iran dealt with an acute security challenge • A massive, largely hostile region unified by a common religion and a common antipathy. • All four of Israel immediate neighbors were Arab, backed by Arab & Muslim- majority states beyond them. • Israel’s natural posture was therefore to try and find fissures among its potential foes. • Prime Minister David Ben Gurion forged alliance with non-Arab countries in the Middle East as a counter-balance to the Arab states. • The Periphery Doctrine The Periphery Doctrine • The Periphery Doctrine (TPD): (Alliance with countries who had common orientation toward the West): 1. Pre-revolution Iran (A non-Arab but Muslim state) 2. Turkey (A non-Arab but Muslim state) 3. Ethiopia (A non-Arab Christian state) 4. Maronites in Lebanon 5. Kurds in Iraq • Israel was surrounded by radical Arab states and these Arab states sought the total destruction of Israel. • A way of offsetting the diplomatic/economic boycott of the Arab World • A traditional balance-of-power strategy aimed at countering pan-Arabism. -
US-Turkey 'Safe Zone'
UK £2 Issue 218, Year 5 August 18, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Developments The Muslim Success of Brotherhood drives in Yemen wedge between haj season Cairo and Tripoli Pages 6,8 Page 5 Pages 6, 20 US-Turkey ‘safe zone’ augurs fracturing of Syria into foreign areas of influence ► Despite lingering disagreements, the move demonstrates how foreign powers are establishing separate zones in Syria while the Damascus government cannot do much. Thomas Seibert “Syria is unlikely to be unified for a long time,” said Joshua Lan- dis, director of the Centre for Mid- Istanbul dle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. he debate between Tur- “Turkey has territorial ambitions key and the United States in Syria. Many influential groups in about setting up a “secu- US foreign policy circles are also T rity zone” in north-eastern saying that the US should remain Syria is the latest example of for- in north Syria for the long haul, eign and regional power politics which is not promising,” Landis deepening divisions in the war- said via e-mail. torn country. Turkey denies that it has terri- Ankara and Washington have be- torial aspirations in Syria. Ankara gun preparations to set up a joint argues that plans for a “security operations centre to manage a “se- zone” in north-eastern Syria were curity zone” along Syria’s north- triggered by the same reason that eastern border with Turkey. led to military interventions by Even though the two NATO part- Turkey west of the Euphrates Riv- ners have been unable to agree on er in 2016 and 2018: Turkey says the size of the zone and on who its national security is threatened would patrol the area, the move by the Kurds’ region of self-rule, demonstrates how foreign powers described as a “terror corridor” by are establishing separate zones of Turkish politicians. -
Continuity Despite Revolution: Iran's Support for Non-State Actors
Crown Family Director Professor of the Practice in Politics Gary Samore Continuity Despite Revolution: Iran’s Director for Research Charles (Corky) Goodman Professor Support for Non-State Actors of Middle East History Naghmeh Sohrabi Associate Director Mohammad Ataie Kristina Cherniahivsky Associate Director for Research he Islamic Republic of Iran supports a number of David Siddhartha Patel Tnon-state actors throughout the Middle East, such as Myra and Robert Kraft Professor Hizbollah in Lebanon and elements of the Iraqi Popular of Arab Politics Eva Bellin Mobilization Forces (al-Hashd al-Sha‘bi). Iranian leaders Founding Director describe their support for such groups in religious and Professor of Politics Shai Feldman revolutionary terms and as resistance against “global arrogance” (Istikbar-i Jahani), meaning imperialism. This aspect Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics of the Middle East of Iran’s foreign policy, therefore, is widely understood to be a Nader Habibi product of the 1978–79 Iranian Revolution and as motivated, Renée and Lester Crown Professor in large part, by ideology. of Modern Middle East Studies Pascal Menoret In contrast, this Brief argues that Iran’s pattern of support for non-state Founding Senior Fellows entities after 1979, shaped around the so-called Axis of Resistance, is a Abdel Monem Said Aly Khalil Shikaki continuation of a regional policy that dates to the late 1950s and continued through the 1960s and 1970s. Both Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and the Goldman Faculty Leave Fellow Andrew March leaders of the Islamic Republic pursued a strategy of backing extraterritorial groups and invoking historical and religious ties to Shi‘i communities Harold Grinspoon Junior Research Fellow in the region to counter perceived threats and contain adversaries. -
Navy News Week 18-6
NAVY NEWS WEEK 18-6 4 May 2018 Naval chief meets with Iranian navy commanders Our Staff Reporter April 25, 2018 ISLAMABAD - Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi who is on an official visit to Iran to attend 6th three- day Indian Ocean Naval Symposium titled "Conclave of Chiefs 2018" held meetings with various commanders of Iran's Navy and other defence authorities. According to Pakistan Navy spokesperson, matters of mutual interest, including bilateral naval collaboration and security environment in Indian Ocean Region were discussed during the meeting. Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi also thanked Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi for inviting him invitation to attend 6th Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, “Conclave of Chiefs 2018”. Both dignitaries also discussed avenues to enhance bilateral cooperation between both navies in the field of training, provision of technical manpower and expertise. Commander of Iranian Navy acknowledged the need and significance of close and strong bilateral naval association in diverse realms between Pakistan Navy and Iranian Navy. During the meetings with Commander Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Ali Fidavi and Deputy Commander of Iran Army, Vice Admiral Habib Ullah Siyari, professional matters of mutual interest and bilateral defence ties were discussed. Iranian dignitaries acknowledged warm and brotherly relations between Pakistan and Iran, based on historical ties and highly appreciated the role and contribution of Pakistan for maintaining peace and stability in the maritime domain. The dignitaries agreed to enhance bilateral collaboration between Pakistan and Iran in general and defence related avenues in particular. Source: https://nation.com.pk How AI Could Destabilize Nuclear Deterrence A new Rand Corp. -
Foreign Military Studies Office
HTTPS://COMMUNITY.APAN.ORG/WG/TRADOC-G2/FMSO/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 10 Issue #6 OEWATCH June 2020 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT EURASIA 31 Chinese Information on COVID-19 in the PLA 62 Communications to Counter Extremism in the Lake Chad Basin 3 No Hunter at the Victory Day Parade 32 China: Elevating the Status and Role of the People’s Armed 63 Somalia: Ethiopia’s Influence Rises as Kenya Prepares to Leave 4 Alternate Medical Service for Russian Draftees Police Force AMISOM 5 Inside Russia: Spreading Virus Disinformation Narratives 33 A Look at the PLA’s Combat Medical Capabilities 64 Al-Shabaab in Somalia Turns to Criminal Activities in Kenya for 6 Faith and Russian Military Victory 35 China’s COVID-19 “Letter Diplomacy” Funding 8 Chinese Help to Restore the Kuznetsov 37 Chinese Views of Public Opinion Warfare 65 Al-Shabaab Kidnaps Professionals to Utilize Their Skills 9 Toward a “System of Regional Security in the Arctic”: A 39 China’s COVID-19 Information Campaign is Backfiring in Europe 66 The Impact of COVID-19 on African Security Russian Perspective 41 Philippine Insurgents Disrupt Army’s COVID-19 Response 67 Mali Struggles to Fight Pandemic 10 Looking Beyond China: Asian Actors in the Russian Arctic 42 Coronavirus Shutdown Complicates Southern Thailand Conflict 69 The EU Suspends Training Mission in Mali due to COVID-19 (Part One) 43 The Focus of Pakistan’s 2020 Green Book 70 Chad Considers Withdrawing from Regional Military 12 Russian Airborne Troops Conduct High Altitude Arctic Cooperation