Effects of climate change on species with low mobility

Thomas Fartmann

Ecological Networks and Climate Change Vilm, 27−30/10/2008 Outline ƒ Climate change and different animal groups in science ƒ Model groups: butterflies and grasshoppers (and allies) ƒ Population structure ƒ Range shifts - disperal ability - generalists vs. specialists - habitat expansion - predictions vs. reality ƒ Habitat availability ƒ Habitat heterogeneity ƒ Conservation Climate change and different animal groups in science 120 Climate change + 100 Birds Butterflies Dragonflies 80 Grasshoppers ()

60

No. papers No. 40

20

0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year

Source: Web of Science, ISI Science Citation Index Butterflies and grasshoppers (and allies)

Butterflies Grasshoppers

Knowledge ++ + Mobility ±/−− Population structure metapop. closed pop. Diet plants plants/ Bioindication ++ ++ Population structure: Mainland-island metapopulation

Nickerl’s Fritillary (Melitaea aurelia) Eichel & Fartmann, 2008, J. Ins. Cons. 12: 677−688. Population structure: Mainland-island metapopulation Patch size +* Isolation −*** Bare ground n.s. Land-use intensity n.s. Host plant coverage +* Litter coverage n.s. Habitat quality Moss/litter layer height +* Moss/lichen coverage n.s. Vegetation density n.s. Nickerl’s Fritillary

Eichel & Fartmann, 2008, J. Ins. Cons. 12: 677−688. (Melitaea aurelia) Population structure: Island-archipelago metapopulation

Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina)

Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fennici 43: 335−347. Population structure: Island-archipelago metapopulation Patch size n.s. Isolation −* Land-use intensity n.s. Old woodland +***

Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina)

Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fennici 43: 335−347. Population structure: closed population

Bog bush-cricket (Metrioptera brachyptera)

Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Population structure: closed population Altitude n.s. Patch size n.s. Isolation n.s. Precipitation +* Temperature n.s.

Bog bush-cricket (Metrioptera brachyptera) Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Population structure: Persistence in fragmented landscapes

Butterflies ƒ Metapopulation theory: patch size, patch isolation (connectivity) and habitat quality Network of habitat patches (metapopulation continuum)

Grasshoppers (and allies) ƒ Habitat quality is more important than patch size and isolation; high persistence even on small patches Range shifts: different taxonomic groups

UK, 1960−2000

Hickling et al., 2006, Global Change Biology 12: 450–455. Range shifts: species capable of flight Sickle-bearing bush-cricket (Phaneroptera falcata)

Maas (pers. comm.) Range shifts: flightless species

50 Mobility depends Site on habitat I (N = 158) 40 structure and II (N = 64) patch size Wart-biter 30 (Decticus verrucivorus)

20 Frequency (%) Frequency

10

0 10 30 50 70 90 >100 Distance (m)

Schuhmacher & Fartmann, 2003, Naturschutz und Landschaftsplanung 35 (1): 20−28. Range shifts: flightless species − hydrochory Striped bush-cricket (Leptophyes albovittata)

Maas (pers. comm.) Range shifts: flightless species − anthropochory Southern oak bush-cricket ( meridionale)

Maas (pers. comm.) Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery Concephalus fuscus Metrioptera roeselii macroptery +

Concephalus dorsalis Metrioptera brachyptera

—

Simmons & Thomas, 2004, American Naturalist 164 (3): 378―395. Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery

Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery

20 Metrioptera roeselii Metrioptera brachyptera *** ***

15

10 Individuals/10 m²

5

0

Nplots = 34 14 74 10

Nindividuals = 159 278 325 216 withoutwith without with macropterous individuals Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery

Macroptery M. roeselii M. brachyptera Abundance +*** +*** Altitude n.s. n.s. Precipitation (nyp. P, ad. P PG) n.s. n.s. Temperature (nyp. P, ad. P PG) n.s. n.s. Cover bare ground n.s. n.s. Cover vegetation n.s. n.s. Vegetation height n.s. n.s. Vegetation density n.s. n.s. Eastness n.s. n.s. Northness n.s. n.s.

Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery

Abundance M. roeselii M. brachyptera Precipitation (adult period, PG) −*** −*** Precipitation (nympahl period) n.s. n.s. Temperature (adult period, PG) n.s. n.s. Temperature (nympahl period) +*** n.s.

Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Range shifts: generalists vs. specialists Butterflies: southern species, UK 1970−1982 vs. 1995−1999

Warren et al., 2001, Nature 414: 65−69. Range shifts: generalists vs. specialists Butterflies: northern species, UK, 1970−2005

Franco et al., 2006, Global Change Biol. 12: 1545−1553. Range shifts: habitat expansion Silver-spotted skipper a) 1982 b) 1983-2000 (Hesperia comma) UK

Thomas et al., 2001, Nature 411, 577−581. Range shifts: predictions Southern species RingletSchornsteinfeger ((Aphantopus hyperantus hyperantus) ) Generalist

Current

Current/future

Future (2070−90)

Hill et al., 2002, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 269, 2163−2171. Range shifts: predictions Northern species LargeSchornsteinfeger Heath ((CoenonymphaAphantopus hyperantus tullia) ) Specialist

Current

Current/future

Future (2070−90)

Hill et al., 2002, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 269, 2163−2171. Range shifts: predictions vs. reality Northern species Specialist

† † † † † † † † † † ††† † ††† † † † † Ebert & Rennwald, 1991, Die Schmetterlinge Baden-Württmenbergs; Hermann pers. comm. Rennwald pers. comm. Habitat availability N Duke of Burgundy NNW NNE (Hamearis lucina)

NW NE

Calcareous grasslands WNW EN E Central Diemel Valley

W E 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

WSW ESE

no. of eggs/ relevés SE >20 SW 11-20 6-10 SSW SSE 2-5 eggs (n = 416) S 1 relevés (n = 47) Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fenn. 43, 335−347. Habitat availability

12 Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina)

10

8 Calcareous grasslands Diemel Valley 6 Central Germany Duration [h] 4

2

0 S [n = 38] SW [n = 95] W [n = 262] NW [n = 19] Aspect

Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fenn. 43, 335−347. Habitat availability Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina)

Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fenn. 43, 335−347. Habitat availability Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina) Habitat heterogeneity: climatic buffer Metrioptera bicolor

Kindvall, 1996, Ecology, 77, 207−214. Habitat heterogeneity: climatic buffer

10th10. Mai May n = 384 N = 384 1 rs = 0,69*** 2 3 4 5 6 7

26th26. Mai May Nn = 394394

rs = 0,57***

Bare ground

25th25. Juni June Nn == 134134 rs = 0,23* IndividualsAnzahl pro Raster

Schuhmacher & Fartmann, 2003, Articulata 18 (1), 71−93. m Take-home message I Rate of spread depends on ƒ Population structure (closed populations−metapopulations [metapopulation continuum]) ƒ Disperal ability (active dispersal including macroptery; passive dispersal) ƒ Habitat specialisation (generalist-specialist continuum) ƒ Habitat availability (landscape structure, landscape permeability) Take-home message II Trends ƒ Butterflies: some winners (mobile generalists), many losers (northern species, habitat specialists) ƒ Grasshoppers: some winners (mobile generalists), losers? ƒ Range shifts are generally lagging behind climate change ƒ Biotic interactions: data quality is poor (mismatches?) Conservation ƒ Improve habitat quality - biodiversity hotspots - habitats of northern species and specialists ƒ Conserve environmental gradients (habitat heterogeneity) ƒ Restore habitats and connectivity ƒ Transfer of organisms? Many thanks to… ƒ all the grasshoppers and butterflies for their co-operative behaviour

ƒ you for your attention! Phenology: match − mismatch

10 ) -1 8

6

4

2 Advance in phenology (days degree (days in phenology Advance

0 Odonata Lepidoptera Amphibia Aves Plants

Hassall et al., 2007, Global Change Biol. 13, 1−9. Range shifts: generalists vs. specialists

Roesel’s bush-cricket (Metrioptera reoselii) Wissmann et al., in press, Ent. Gen.