Effects of climate change on animal species with low mobility Thomas Fartmann Ecological Networks and Climate Change Vilm, 27−30/10/2008 Outline Climate change and different animal groups in science Model groups: butterflies and grasshoppers (and allies) Population structure Range shifts - disperal ability - generalists vs. specialists - habitat expansion - predictions vs. reality Habitat availability Habitat heterogeneity Conservation Climate change and different animal groups in science 120 Climate change + 100 Birds Butterflies Dragonflies 80 Grasshoppers (Orthoptera) 60 No. papers No. 40 20 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Source: Web of Science, ISI Science Citation Index Butterflies and grasshoppers (and allies) Butterflies Grasshoppers Knowledge ++ + Mobility ±/−− Population structure metapop. closed pop. Diet plants plants/animals Bioindication ++ ++ Population structure: Mainland-island metapopulation Nickerl’s Fritillary (Melitaea aurelia) Eichel & Fartmann, 2008, J. Ins. Cons. 12: 677−688. Population structure: Mainland-island metapopulation Patch size +* Isolation −*** Bare ground n.s. Land-use intensity n.s. Host plant coverage +* Litter coverage n.s. Habitat quality Moss/litter layer height +* Moss/lichen coverage n.s. Vegetation density n.s. Nickerl’s Fritillary Eichel & Fartmann, 2008, J. Ins. Cons. 12: 677−688. (Melitaea aurelia) Population structure: Island-archipelago metapopulation Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina) Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fennici 43: 335−347. Population structure: Island-archipelago metapopulation Patch size n.s. Isolation −* Land-use intensity n.s. Old woodland +*** Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina) Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fennici 43: 335−347. Population structure: closed population Bog bush-cricket (Metrioptera brachyptera) Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Population structure: closed population Altitude n.s. Patch size n.s. Isolation n.s. Precipitation +* Temperature n.s. Bog bush-cricket (Metrioptera brachyptera) Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Population structure: Persistence in fragmented landscapes Butterflies Metapopulation theory: patch size, patch isolation (connectivity) and habitat quality Network of habitat patches (metapopulation continuum) Grasshoppers (and allies) Habitat quality is more important than patch size and isolation; high persistence even on small patches Range shifts: different taxonomic groups UK, 1960−2000 Hickling et al., 2006, Global Change Biology 12: 450–455. Range shifts: species capable of flight Sickle-bearing bush-cricket (Phaneroptera falcata) Maas (pers. comm.) Range shifts: flightless species 50 Mobility depends Site on habitat I (N = 158) 40 structure and II (N = 64) patch size Wart-biter 30 (Decticus verrucivorus) 20 Frequency (%) Frequency 10 0 10 30 50 70 90 >100 Distance (m) Schuhmacher & Fartmann, 2003, Naturschutz und Landschaftsplanung 35 (1): 20−28. Range shifts: flightless species − hydrochory Striped bush-cricket (Leptophyes albovittata) Maas (pers. comm.) Range shifts: flightless species − anthropochory Southern oak bush-cricket (Meconema meridionale) Maas (pers. comm.) Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery Concephalus fuscus Metrioptera roeselii macroptery + Concephalus dorsalis Metrioptera brachyptera — Simmons & Thomas, 2004, American Naturalist 164 (3): 378―395. Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery 20 Metrioptera roeselii Metrioptera brachyptera *** *** 15 10 Individuals/10 m² 5 0 Nplots = 34 14 74 10 Nindividuals = 159 278 325 216 withoutwith without with macropterous individuals Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery Macroptery M. roeselii M. brachyptera Abundance +*** +*** Altitude n.s. n.s. Precipitation (nyp. P, ad. P PG) n.s. n.s. Temperature (nyp. P, ad. P PG) n.s. n.s. Cover bare ground n.s. n.s. Cover vegetation n.s. n.s. Vegetation height n.s. n.s. Vegetation density n.s. n.s. Eastness n.s. n.s. Northness n.s. n.s. Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Range shifts: usually flightless species − macroptery Abundance M. roeselii M. brachyptera Precipitation (adult period, PG) −*** −*** Precipitation (nympahl period) n.s. n.s. Temperature (adult period, PG) n.s. n.s. Temperature (nympahl period) +*** n.s. Poniatowski & Fartmann (submitted) Range shifts: generalists vs. specialists Butterflies: southern species, UK 1970−1982 vs. 1995−1999 Warren et al., 2001, Nature 414: 65−69. Range shifts: generalists vs. specialists Butterflies: northern species, UK, 1970−2005 Franco et al., 2006, Global Change Biol. 12: 1545−1553. Range shifts: habitat expansion Silver-spotted skipper a) 1982 b) 1983-2000 (Hesperia comma) UK Thomas et al., 2001, Nature 411, 577−581. Range shifts: predictions Southern species RingletSchornsteinfeger ((Aphantopus hyperantus hyperantus) ) Generalist Current Current/future Future (2070−90) Hill et al., 2002, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 269, 2163−2171. Range shifts: predictions Northern species LargeSchornsteinfeger Heath ((CoenonymphaAphantopus hyperantus tullia) ) Specialist Current Current/future Future (2070−90) Hill et al., 2002, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 269, 2163−2171. Range shifts: predictions vs. reality Northern species Specialist † † † † † † † † † † ††† † ††† † † † † Ebert & Rennwald, 1991, Die Schmetterlinge Baden-Württmenbergs; Hermann pers. comm. Rennwald pers. comm. Habitat availability N Duke of Burgundy NNW NNE (Hamearis lucina) NW NE Calcareous grasslands WNW EN E Central Germany Diemel Valley W E 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 WSW ESE no. of eggs/ relevés SE >20 SW 11-20 6-10 SSW SSE 2-5 eggs (n = 416) S 1 relevés (n = 47) Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fenn. 43, 335−347. Habitat availability 12 Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina) 10 8 Calcareous grasslands Diemel Valley 6 Central Germany Duration [h] 4 2 0 S [n = 38] SW [n = 95] W [n = 262] NW [n = 19] Aspect Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fenn. 43, 335−347. Habitat availability Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina) Fartmann, 2006, Ann. Zool. Fenn. 43, 335−347. Habitat availability Duke of Burgundy (Hamearis lucina) Habitat heterogeneity: climatic buffer Metrioptera bicolor Kindvall, 1996, Ecology, 77, 207−214. Habitat heterogeneity: climatic buffer 10th10. Mai May n = 384 N = 384 1 rs = 0,69*** 2 3 4 5 6 7 26th26. Mai May Nn = 394394 rs = 0,57*** Bare ground 25th25. Juni June Nn == 134134 rs = 0,23* IndividualsAnzahl pro Raster Schuhmacher & Fartmann, 2003, Articulata 18 (1), 71−93. m Take-home message I Rate of spread depends on Population structure (closed populations−metapopulations [metapopulation continuum]) Disperal ability (active dispersal including macroptery; passive dispersal) Habitat specialisation (generalist-specialist continuum) Habitat availability (landscape structure, landscape permeability) Take-home message II Trends Butterflies: some winners (mobile generalists), many losers (northern species, habitat specialists) Grasshoppers: some winners (mobile generalists), losers? Range shifts are generally lagging behind climate change Biotic interactions: data quality is poor (mismatches?) Conservation Improve habitat quality - biodiversity hotspots - habitats of northern species and specialists Conserve environmental gradients (habitat heterogeneity) Restore habitats and connectivity Transfer of organisms? Many thanks to… all the grasshoppers and butterflies for their co-operative behaviour you for your attention! Phenology: match − mismatch 10 ) -1 8 6 4 2 Advance in phenology (days degree (days in phenology Advance 0 Odonata Lepidoptera Amphibia Aves Plants Hassall et al., 2007, Global Change Biol. 13, 1−9. Range shifts: generalists vs. specialists Roesel’s bush-cricket (Metrioptera reoselii) Wissmann et al., in press, Ent. Gen..