THE SIXTEENTH CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY Hu Gets What? Li Cheng and Lynn White Abstract This essay offers data about China’s Central Committee, Politburo, and Stand- ing Committee, e.g., turnover rates, generations, birthplaces, educations, oc- cupations, ethnicities, genders, experiences, and factions. Past statistics demonstrate trends over time. Norms of elite selection can be induced from such data, which allow a broad-based analysis of changes in China’s technoc- racy. New findings include evidence of cooperation among factions and swift promotions of province administrators. Did November of 2002 begin a new era of Chinese politics? Was the Sixteenth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) the first institutionalized transfer of power in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)? Younger leaders, the “fourth generation” headed by Hu Jintao, seemed to replace the old guard. Gerontocracy seemed moribund. Yet, this Li Cheng is the William R. Kenan Professor of Government, Hamilton College, Clinton, New York, U.S.A. Email: <
[email protected]>. Lynn White is Professor at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A. Email: <
[email protected]>. For generous support, Li Cheng thanks the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the United States Institute of Peace, and the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation. Lynn White thanks Hong Kong University’s Centre of Asian Studies and the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation. The authors thank Sally Carman, Patrick Douglass, Joshua Eisenman, Ian Lawson, Li Yinsheng, Qi Li, Jennifer Schwartz, and Jennifer Young for their research assistance and an anonymous referee for suggesting ways to clarify the essay.