Committee: Cabinet Date: 16th March 2009 Agenda item: 10 Subject: Financial Report 2008/09 Lead officer: Grant Miles Lead member: Samantha George
Recommendations:
A. That Cabinet note the financial reporting data relating to revenue budgetary control, capital reporting, miscellaneous debt and savings progress as at January 2009 and consider any relevant action that they wish to take in respect of variations. B. That Cabinet note that Spend Control will be switched on from April 2009 in order to assist with budgetary control. C. That Cabinet agree the Capital virements shown in Section 7 relating to Controlled Parking Zones, Bridge Repairs, Eastfields Youth Centre and Telephone PABX, totalling £613,408.
1. Purpose of report and executive summary
1.1 This is the regular financial monitoring report for 2008/09 presented to Cabinet in line with the financial reporting timetable. It is based on expenditure and income as at 31st January 2009 and represents ten months of the financial year.
This financial monitoring report provides:-
• The latest budgetary control information on revenue expenditure and income; • An update on the capital programme and detailed monitoring information; • An update on Corporate Items in the budget 2008/09; • Income and service indicators – impact of economic downturn; • Debt reporting and collection statistics; • Progress on the delivery of the 2008/09 revenue savings
149 2. The financial reporting process – changes to Proactis and improvements in financial control
2.1 In addition to streamlining of the purchase order to payment process, a key driver to the purchase of PROACTIS was the improvement of procurement practises. A key component of this is the prevention of overspending against budgets.
2.2 Proactis can be set up to perform a real-time check of available budget when raising an order. This is known as Spend Control. Currently, when an order is raised the person entering the order into PROACTIS is warned if there is insufficient budget. If the order processor submits the order for authorisation the authorisers are also warned before they accept the order.
2.3 From 1st April 2009, Spend Control will be tightened: if there is insufficient budget, the person entering the order will no longer be able to submit the order for authorisation. Clearly there is a need to strike a balance between enforcing budgetary control and virement rules and enabling normal business to be conducted as efficiently as possible. With this in mind, the level at which available budget will be checked is at a slightly higher level than that at which budgets are currently monitored, i.e. the budget at summary subjective level, rather than at code level, will be checked. In addition a streamlined virement request process will be introduced.
2.4 Initially the check will be against full year available budget, but there is scope to further tighten control to profiled available budget to date.
2.5 Special arrangements will be made available to waive these rules for critical service provision e.g. for urgent care package approvals for vulnerable clients subject to the specific approval of the Director of Corporate Services.
3. 2008/09 Forecast Outturn based upon latest available data
3.1 The revenue budgetary control information contained in the table below summarises the corporate position using the latest available information as at 31st January 2009.
3.2 Executive summary - As at January, there is a forecast overspend for the Council of £499,000. (£519,000 overspend in December).
The table below summarises the position and Section 3 provides Chief Officer commentary on the pressures and variations.
150 Summary Position as at 31st January 2009 Department Forecast Forecast Management Use of Forecast Variance at Variance at Action Contingency Variance year end year end Proposals to at year (December) (January) date end before Management Action £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 Chief Executive’s 224 205 (205) 0 0
Corporate Services 316 340 (403) 0 (63)
Children, Schools and Families 976 1,002 (695) 0 307
Community and Housing Adult Social Care 957 844 (259) (585) 0 Libraries & Adult Education 0 0 0 0 0 Housing General Fund 30 20 (20) 0 0
Environment & Regeneration 856 950 (694) 0 256
Corporate Provisions and Income Contingency (1,000) (1,069) 0 1,069 0 Inflation 330 330 0 0 330 Other (424) (331) 0 0 (331)
Total General Fund 2,265 2,291 (2,276) 484 499
Housing Revenue Account 0 0 0 0 0
3.3 It is essential that the Council does not overspend its approved budget and where there are signs that this will be the case, positive and meaningful action must be put in place to avoid such overspends. Chief Officers, together with Departmental Financial Managers and budget managers are responsible for keeping budgets under close scrutiny and ensuring that expenditure within budgets which are overspending is being actively and vigorously controlled and where budgets are underspent, these underspends are retained until year end. Any overall overspend on the General Fund will result in a call on balances.
4. Departmental Summary of Current Position
4.1 This Section of the report provides a brief summary of each department’s current budgetary control position.
(i) Chief Executive’s Department
Overview: Although the departmental budgetary control position remains tight, there are no adverse variances to report at this stage.
151 Pressures: The Authority is aware of the following budgetary pressures, however, these are expected to be offset by current vacancies within the department :
1) Chief Executive’s Office: current forecasts estimate that there will be an overspend on subscriptions of around £102,000 due to an increase in the annual subscription to the London Councils Joint Committee and expenditure in relation to internal communications and initiatives.
2) 2nd floor Athena House: as part of the lease agreement, there will be repair and maintenance work to bring the condition of the building back to its original state. A schedule of repair works compiled by the leaseholder indicates that this work will cost around £48,000. However, the Council has made a counter proposal of around £25,000, so the final figure is still to be finalised. Although we are nearing the end of the financial year, the Estates Surveyor still considers there to be enough time to close this case. The funding for this is still to be determined.
3) The Place Survey : Merton has a statutory duty to conduct the Place survey, and will do so as part of a consortium arrangement through London Councils, to keep costs down. The tender process has now been completed and the survey is expected to cost Merton in the region of £13,000. There is currently no corporate contingency remaining as this has been earmarked for the Social Services demographic growth. Therefore, the cost of this survey will be funded from existing budgets within the Chief Executive’s Department.
4) Corporate Communications : as at the end of January, income relating to corporate sponsorship, advertising and filming was around £42,000 below its year to date target, if profiled over the year. However, as a new initiative, it was always anticipated that the first six months of the year would be used to set up systems and processes and agree an overall strategy. Income generation was therefore expected to be more successful in the second half of the financial year, but it would now appear that this has not materialised as hoped. The overall income target for 2008/09 is now unlikely to be met.
Management Action to date Officers are monitoring the financial position of the areas identified above and will identify compensating savings as required.
152 (ii) Corporate Services Department
Overview Although the departmental budgetary control position remains tight, there are no adverse variances at year end to report at this stage.
Pressures 1) Legal Services – due to an increase in activity and a lack of current permanent staffing resources, counsel fees and external legal costs have increased significantly this financial year. As at the end of January, the current overspend in these areas stood at around £144,000. Current forecasts suggest that without compensating action, the year-end overspend will be in the region of £149,000. Compensating savings from elsewhere within the Corporate Services Department have been identified to offset this current level of forecast overspend.
2) Local Land Charge Income – as at the end of January, income levels were below the target budget by around £68,000. Income levels have also fallen below the monthly target for the seventh consecutive month, with January showing a shortfall of £22,000. Due to private sector competition and reduced activity, the income target for this area will not be met. Compensating savings have been identified to offset this current level of forecast overspend.
3) Mayor’s Office – due to a backdated job evaluation and other Mayoral expenditure, such as regalia costs, the section is expecting an overspend of around £14,000. Of this figure, £10,000 relates to the re- evaluation and to recruitment drag.
4) Members Services – expenditure in relation to refreshments at meetings and photocopying and telephone charges are leading to a likely overspend in this area of around £60,000, which have also been heightened by associated savings implemented in this area for this financial year.
5) The Risk and Insurance Budget is under pressure from two areas: a) Specific risks have been identified that should have been covered by the Authority’s insurance provision, whilst other premiums are expected to increase e.g. terrorism. The insurance contract has recently been re-tendered, which will include the additional insurance cover necessary. b) The cost of agency staff on the section is much higher than the cost of permanent staff. This has been mainly due to the fact that the Risk and Insurance Manager’s post, which has high technically specialist requirements, has been unsuccessfully
153 advertised on a number of occasions. As stated above, the insurance contracts have recently been re-tendered and the interim manager is managing the process. Once this is complete, the post will be re-advertised. As at the end of January, the overspend on the employee budget was around £50,000 (£49,000 last month).
6) Progress on Savings – whilst there has been slippage on the progress of some staffing savings that require redundancies, it is envisaged that any shortfall will be met from staffing vacancies, until the redundancies are implemented.
7) Corporate Items – it is currently envisaged that redundancy costs will be below the threshold to permit capitalisation and therefore, the costs will impact on the Authority’s revenue budget. As at the end of January, the forecast impact is approximately £93,000.
Management Action to date Management action totalling £403,000 has been identified to offset the expected overspend of £340,000. It is therefore expected that the net position at the end of the financial year will be an underspend of £63,000.
(iii) Children, Schools and Families
Overview Based on known information as at the end of January 2009 the following projections are made to the year-end for the financial year 2008/2009.
Total Projected Management Net Projected Overspend Action Overspend £000 £000 £000 Local Authority Budgets 980 (673) 307 Dedicated Schools Grant 22 (22) 0 Total for Children, Schools and Families 1,002 (695) 307
Local Authority Budget Pressures The “Baby P” case continues to have a significant impact on the work of Childrens Social Care. Referral levels and activity on current open cases continues to increase within the Access and Assessment, Children in Need and Looked After Children Teams with a consequent increase in demand for Family Support Services. The negative media coverage of social workers and social work managers working within the field of child
154 protection has had an impact on our ability to recruit both temporary and permanent staff and has led to specialised training being given to staff in these teams. Senior Management have put some additional capacity into these significantly affected teams, and this will need to remain in place until the longer term issues are resolved: a) Residential Placements – i) Looked After Children – one new placement has been made into a residential home plus three new fostering placements in January. Further fostering placements are expected to be made before the end of the year. ii) Mother and Baby Units - these 4 placements have now ended. iii) Secure Accommodation - the young person placed in secure accommodation has now completed her 6 month stay and has been placed in a residential home. iv) The implementation of the public law outliner is also having a significant impact on service delivery. The time taken in proceedings has lengthened and expectations of what the local authority has to provide prior to court proceedings and in terms of service response remains high. This budget continues to be managed very tightly. b) Children in Need – there are two young people being charged to this area as an alternative to care placements for twelve weeks. c) Children Looked After – an additional Assistant Team Manager and an additional contact officer are in post. Increased costs are being incurred for daily supervised contact which is often directed by the Court. The cost of placing one young person in secure accommodation has also had to be met. d) Court Assessment – specialist assessments and additional work is required for Court assessments. e) Senior Management – it is envisaged that the recruitment of a new director will result in a £60,000 overspend on this budget at year end. f) SEN Transport – it is currently projected that this service will overspend by £260,000 (£208,000 last month). Officers have been reviewing the transport arrangements for the client base and have made some reductions in expenditure, however, this is not at the level originally envisaged and the year-end overspend has been increased. This overspend will form a budget pressure in 2009/2010. g) Professional Development Centre – based on a lower take-up of rooms by Merton Adult Education and increased utility costs, it is envisaged that the service will overspend by £28,000 (same as last month).
155 Management Action:
In total, £673,000 of management action has been taken : a) Ensuring that the educational elements of placements are correctly charged has identified action of £645,000. b) Officers continue to review the appropriateness of SEN Transport Provision, and these savings are automatically built into monthly transport charges. c) Senior management continue to review the appointment of temporary and permanent staff to vacant posts. Social Workers and Social Workers Management are subject to a separate process. d) Schools Standards and Quality have been able to identify sufficient in- year savings to offset the projected overspend on the Professional Development Centre. This budget continues to be managed very tightly.
Dedicated Schools Grant Budget Pressures Changes in the way that early years pupil numbers were calculated as part of this year’s funding model led to a shortfall in pupil funding of £312,000. This funding shortfall was made up from retained budgets for Special Educational Needs (SEN) Placements and Speech Therapy. The budget reduction in SEN Placements has exacerbated the year-end overspend for this area which is currently projected as £492,500, which constitutes the bulk of the year-end overspend. This overspend will be offset by underspends in Schools Admissions, Therapy in Schools, Sensory Team, Language and Learning, Full Day Nursery and SEN/Schools Contingency.
The ongoing impact of SEN Placements will be built into future year estimates and considered by the Schools Forum when setting the 2009/2010 budget.
156 (iv) Community and Housing
(a) Adult Social Care 1. Summary 1.1 The projected overspend of £844,000 within Adult Social Care is summarised in the table below:
Pressure £000 Committed external placement cost up to January (3) Transfer of Internal Homecare to External Provision to date (233) Estimated additional cost based on past year trend data 770 Expected placement overspend for the year 534 Provider contract increases 224 Under-achievement of income 329 Under-achievement of savings 253 Utilities 50 Concessionary fares/freedom passes (546) Total expected overspend 844
1.2 The estimated year-end overspend has been calculated using the most up to date information available to officers, and as additional information becomes available the estimate will be adjusted accordingly. Paragraphs 2.2 to 2.6 provide additional detail of the information and trends analysed to make this projection.
1.3 The information contained in this report is being utilised to project trends in income and expenditure forward for future years as part of the budget setting process.
1.4 The current projection is based on the average package values from CareFirst data.
157 2. Breakdown of placements projected to year-end for 2008/09
2.1 Using monthly financial data and past demographic changes from June 2006 up to September 2008, trends have been projected forward to the year end. This gives a year end projected overspend of £534,006 when compared to the available budget.
Service Increase in Projected Available Projected number and Expenditure Gross Variance intensity of based on Budget 2008 Packages in Financial 2008 Trends £ £ £ Mental Health 18 2,295,367 2,146,390 148,977 Physical and 2 2,969,146 2,803,690 165,456 Sensory Learning 19 9,334,619 8,942,030 392,589 Disabilities Older People 88 17,235,651 17,502,990 (267,339) Discretionary (28) 65,637 72,100 (6,463) Payments No recourse to 2 500,786 400,000 100,786 public funds Total 101 32,401,206 31,867,200 534,006
2.2 The estimated overspend in the table above is made up of three items:
a) The predicted overspend for adult social care packages at the year- end based on January commitments on CareFirst is expected to be £3,000.
b) The Merton Reablement Team commenced on 20th October 2008. As Merton is planning to outsource its internal homecare function, all these packages will eventually be transferred to external providers. Internal homecare salary budgets will transfer across to external homecare placement budgets. The full year cost is expected to be £398,000. To date, 81 clients have been transferred, which equates to 418 hours, or £233,000.
c) As a result of analysis undertaken with managers and the use of trend forecasts for placements data, officers estimate that an additional £770,000 of costs will be incurred to the end of the financial year as additional placements are made.
2.3 The estimated outturn excludes any inflationary increases in contract prices as officers are currently working to a 0% uplift in contracts this financial year. Provider contracts documentation includes provision for an RPI uplift based on February data. The RPI for February 2008 was 4.1%.
158 Providers have been notified that there will be a 0% increase in 2008, although it is expected that we will not be able to contain the 0% with some providers. To date we have consented to inflation increases to the value of £224,000. The total inflation could amount to £1.018m for the year if inflation was agreed for all providers.
2.4 Adult Social Care Activity Data – Number of Care Packages
Activity Data – Care Package No of Care No of Care Increase/ Numbers Packages as at Packages as at decrease Service Area Dec 2008 Jan 2009 since Dec 2008 Mental Health 194 185 (9) Physical and Sensory 230 219 (11) Learning Disabilities 285 283 (2) Older People 1,597 1,491 (106) Substance Misuse 9 5 (4) No recourse to public funds 64 68 4 Total 2,379 2,251 (128)
2.5 Income 2.5.1 A full review of income in January showed an under-achievement of expected income of £329,000. This is mainly attributable to a £425,000 under-achievement on placement income offset by a one-off £119,000 over-achievement on health income due to backdated charging as a result of the Learning Disability funding transfer review.
2.6 Underachievement of Savings 2008/09 2.6.1 Officers are currently estimating a £253,000 under-achievement of savings for 2008/09. The table below shows the shortfall in savings as per the RAG analysis adjusted for overspends separately identified in this report to avoid double counting of issues.
Description £000 Under-achievement of savings from RAG analysis 666 Part of savings already identified in provider contract increases (224) Part of savings already identified in income shortfall (189) Under achievement of savings 253
2.7 Utility Costs 2.7.1 Increased utility costs are estimated to cause overspends of between £40,000 and £80,000. Although the utility overspend is reported corporately, we include the figures in this report as it is expected that we would need to find departmental management action to offset this pressure.
159 2.8 Concessionary fares / freedom passes 2.8.1 Money was set aside for a project to issue concessionary fares through libraries. This system would provide various benefits to Merton, including increasing the footfall in libraries. Some authorities have already implemented this new scheme with positive results. Government has decided that this scheme should not go ahead and that concessionary fares should continue to be distributed through Post Offices. As a result, the money for this scheme has been released along with clarification of funding requirements for 2008/09. This will result in an underspend of approximately £546,000 for the year.
2.9 LD Transfer 2.9.1 The transfer of Social Care Funding from the Sutton and Merton PCT to LB Merton to include Orchard Hill is currently under discussion. Officers have had meetings to discuss the transfer and another meeting will be arranged for the end of February 2009 between LB Merton, LB Sutton and the PCT. This meeting will aim to agree the funding to transfer to the two authorities from the PCT and is currently estimated to be £6.756m for LB Merton.
2.10 Management Action to date 2.10.1 The following management actions have been identified to mitigate any possible overspends or non-achievement of savings:-
Description £000 £000 Funded from contingency 585 Control appointments to vacancies 159 Use the Learning Disability S31 Pooled Budget 50 underspend Supporting People Grant 50 Total 259 585
2.10.2 The division will continue to maintain a control on appointments to vacancies. The division is currently operating a vacancy factor of 9.08% (equivalent to £917,000), to maintain expenditure within the available budgetary provision (this excludes in-house residential homes such as Riverside Drive, Meadowsweet and Dolliffe Close). The vacancy control will increase this provision.
2.10.3 As at 31st March 2008 the balance brought forward on the Learning Disability Section 31 Pooled Budget was an underspend of £599,000. In accordance with the Section 31 agreement, the pool manager has considered the current funding levels and will be able to release £50,000 of the in-year underspend to contribute to the overall overspend within Adult Social Care.
160 2.10.4 The Supporting People Grant has ceased its funding of Bradshaw Close (£145,000) and Mascot (£13,000). Officers have identified £50,000 to offset against projected pressures on the budget during the year. This grant is expected to become part of the Area Based Grant in 2010/11.
2.10.5 Further work continues to find additional management action to offset the under-achievement of savings.
(b) Libraries and Heritage and Adult Education
Overview At present it is envisaged that the outturn position, although very tight will be within budget subject to holding vacant posts.
Pressures The division will endeavour to contain the increase in utility bills within its existing budgetary provision. The estimated increase in cost as at January is £22,000 provided bills are received during this financial year.
As at the end of January, income was under-achieved by £3,000. Income to date of £232,000 represents an 8.3% reduction on last year’s figures. The current trend still shows a slow down in customers using income generating services and/or smarter on fines and late returns.
Management continues to review pressure areas and is making every effort to attract more customers. Difficulties are being met given the current financial climate.
Merton Adult Education pressures The current fee income is on target at £425,000. The Learning and Skills Council (LSC) continues to review actual achievement targets for the academic year 2008/09. To date, the LSC have identified targets not being met in some curriculum areas. As a result there is a potential risk of a £10,000 reduction in funding this year (£76k for academic year to July 2009). This reduction could be recovered subject to achieving targets as agreed with the LSC by the end of each reporting quarter.
Management is currently monitoring all potential risks and continues to monitor courses offered and the enrolments and courses mix to attract maximum funding from LSC.
161 (c) Housing General Fund
Overview The Housing General Fund includes services that are statutory and demand led, e.g. Homelessness and Temporary Accommodation Services.
Pressures The position regarding homeless and temporary accommodation remains relatively unchanged. However, we have recently seen a reduction in the number of households occupying temporary accommodation provided by the Council. There are a number of known factors which have influenced this position and these include: • Less private sector evictions • Increase in re-housings into the private rented sector • Active affordable housing programme Whilst we welcome the reduction in the numbers in temporary accommodation the position remains uncertain. We have no way of knowing if this position will change although we suspect that the recent economic downturn may lead to increased homeless episodes as a consequence of mortgage repossession.
Management Action to date Overall, the Housing General Fund is likely to break even in 2008/09. This is mainly a result of an anticipated £20,000 overspend on the homelessness and temporary accommodation budget which is reduced by potential underspends of £20,000 on the overall Housing General Fund.
(d) Housing Revenue Account
Overview The Housing Revenue Account (HRA) is the Council’s landlord account where all expenditure and income relating to Council Housing is recorded. It is separate from the General Fund i.e. it is a ring fenced account. When setting the budget it must balance to nil.
Pressures As at January, the HRA is expected to break even at the end of the financial year.
162 Management Action to date Managers are continuing to monitor their budgets as part of the normal monthly budget monitoring process.
(v) Environment and Regeneration
Pressures A number of budgetary pressures have been identified within the department, mainly relating to the wider economic situation. Three sections in particular are likely to be significantly affected.
Parking It has been reported for some time that the planned removal of the Hartfield Road Bus Lane will lead to a significant reduction in Parking Enforcement income, estimated at £270,000 for a full year. In addition to this, the parking income figures for December and January indicate a significant downturn in activity, particularly within off-street parking. A significant income shortfall is likely - bringing the estimated net overspend for the section to £700,000 (£606,000 last month).
Building Control Building activity and the level of income to the Section has dipped dramatically over the last three months. A net shortfall of £190,000 is currently forecast at year end (same as last month).
Development Control Income levels from planning application fees are reduced compared to the equivalent period in 2007/08 and there is a risk that the saving of £60,000 (as last month) agreed as part of the 2008/09 estimate process will not be achieved.
Likely Savings/Management Action Waste Management Due to economic factors, as well as expansion of recycling activity, there is likely to be a significant underspend on this budget heading, currently estimated at £500,000 (£450,000 last month).
Bringing Forward of 2009-10 savings. Wherever possible, savings agreed as part of the 2009-10 process have been brought forward to January 2009. The effect of this is estimated at £54,000.
163 In addition, savings against budgets are expected in a number of areas due to managers restricting employee and other spending wherever possible. The total saving achievable is currently estimated at £140,000.
The current forecast for the Department at year end is therefore a £256,000 overspend (£300,000 overspend last month). This is less than the effect of the Hartfield Road bus lane closure. Options for additional management action to reduce this further are being reviewed.
5. Corporate Expenditure and Income (incorporating technical issues)
5.1 Technical Issues - Pay and Price Inflation 5.1.1 The MTFS for 2008/09 includes 2.5% for the 2008 pay award, 1.5% for general prices and additional amounts for extra inflation provision for those areas of high inflation (e.g. transport, care homes).
(i) Pay: There has been no change to the interim arrangements agreed pending the results of arbitration which were previously reported. The local government employers have agreed to the union's request for a 2.45% pay rise for staff, with an extra £100 for the lowest paid, backdated to April, as an interim measure. The NJC Trade Union Side submitted evidence to the panel of ACAS arbitrators appointed to resolve the 2008- 09 NJC pay dispute within local government on 9th February. In submitting their evidence the Trade Union Side stated :
”We hope that we have reinforced the merits and rationale of our 2008-09 claim ….. It was for: 'A one-year increase on all pay points of 6% or 50 pence an hour, whichever is the greater, with a view to making progress to a bottom rate of £6.75 pence' ”We believe the employers’ offer of 2.45% has not adequately rewarded or met the financial needs of our members during 2008/09. Indeed, it has further increased the financial hardship they have found themselves in as a result of a series of below-inflation pay awards in recent years.”
The date when the outcome of arbitration will be announced is not yet known.
(ii) Prices: CPI annual inflation, the Government’s target measure, was 3.0% in January (December 3.1%) with the same factors as for the RPI having an effect, excluding housing factors. RPI inflation was 0.1% in January, down from 0.9% in December and the reduction was mainly due to transport costs where fuel prices (petrol and diesel) fell, along with car prices and maintenance and repair costs. Air fares also fell. Upward pressure came from recreation and culture costs in the form of toy and
164 games prices, newspapers, books and stationery and holidays abroad. There was a large reduction in mortgage interest payments and house depreciation which are excluded from the CPI.
5.1.2 The outlook for inflation As advised in paragraph 5.4.1 below, the Bank Base rate has been reducing since January 2008 and on 5th February 2009 it was reduced to 1.0%. In its February 2009 Inflation report, the Bank of England advises that “in the central projection, CPI inflation falls well below the 2% target in the medium term …..the near term path of inflation is uneven. That reflects two further factors: first the marked fall in energy prices which drags down sharply on inflation during 2009; and, second, the direct impact of the temporary cut in VAT, which pulls down inflation during 2009 but briefly pushes it back towards the target in early 2010. The balance of risks around the central projection for inflation is judged to be slightly on the downside.”
Quarter 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CPI Inflation 2% 3.75% 0.5% 2.25% 2% Source: HM Treasury: Pre-Budget Report 2008
It is expected that RPI inflation is likely to turn negative for a period in the early part of 2009 which reflects the impact of measures taken to reduce housing costs and mortgage interest payments, but could increase rapidly if the strategy of quantitative easing is introduced.
5.2 Utilities 5.2.1 The overspend of approximately £0.330m, previously reported, is still anticipated for this financial year The Cabinet report on 15th December indicated that as a result of the reduction in oil prices in recent weeks, officers had reviewed utilities cost projections for 2009/10 and proposed that the estimated increase in budgets for 2009/10 could be reduced by £0.275m to £0.776m. There are no further contracts to renew before 1st October. Wholesale utility prices seem to have stabilised at around 70% of the levels that were prevailing at the time of previous renewals in the summer and it considered that the provision for inflation on utilities can be reduced further by £0.180m to £0.596m. The utilities market remains a very volatile area with wholesale prices subject to wide fluctuation dependent on a variety of economic and political factors.
5.2.2 The MTFS previously reported included provision for utilities costs above 1.5% in leisure centres of £0.185m in 2009/10. This has now been reviewed and it is unlikely to be required.
5.2.3 For 2008/09, regardless of the actual level of pay award agreed or CPI inflation that prevails, the budgets set are cash limited and budget managers are expected to contain expenditure within agreed budgets.
165 5.3 Technical Issues - Contingency provision 5.3.1 The budget approved for 2008/09 includes a contingency of £1.6m. However, in setting the budget, the adult social care budget was identified as having a potential need to call on this for additional placements costs. A comprehensive review of demand including demographic trends in relation to Adult Social care was undertaken to assess the potential pressures on this budget during 2008/2009. In addition, a comprehensive review of contracts indicated that additional inflation would be required to cover inflation in excess of that provided. Cabinet decided that £1.56m of the contingency should be set aside to meet the additional costs if these pressures materialised.
5.3.2 In paragraph 3.1.1 (iv), the current projection for Adult Social Care shows that there is currently a call on the contingency of £0.585m at this stage. It should be recognised that demand is affected significantly by seasonal factors and as shown in the information provided it is expected that net placements will rise as the year progresses, in line with the projection.
5.3.3 The use of contingency will be kept under review on a month by month basis.
5.4 Technical Issues - Single Status 5.4.1 There is an earmarked reserve to fund this expenditure. An agreement in principle was reached with Staffside on 2nd May. Discussions have been ongoing with the unions regarding the implementation of the draft agreement. The Council will be implementing the draft agreement in relation to Single Status, and a report is being presented in March.
5.5 Technical Issues – Treasury Management: Progress to date 5.5.1 Regular updates on treasury management have been provided during the year and a report on a comprehensive review of investments was presented to Cabinet on 8th December. The authority’s borrowings and investments are under continuous review. 5.5.2 Previous reports identified the movement of the UK and world economy into recession, and the impact of the ‘credit crunch’. With regard to the ‘credit crunch’, LBM has not suffered immediate adverse effects. Long- term finance remains available from the Public Works Loans Board (PWLB), and short-term temporary borrowing has been available to the Authority at exceptionally low interest rates. The Authority has not suffered deferred repayment or capital loss from its current cash deposit investments, which currently are spread across ten institutions of the highest available credit rating.
5.5.3 The economic background has though prompted a substantial reduction in the UK Base Rate, and in due course this will impact on investment income. The Bank of England has reduced interest rates seven times
166 since January 2008 . The base rate has reduced from 5.25% in February 2008 and on 5th February 2009 it was reduced to 1.0%. There is currently a consensus among economic commentators that the rate could fall further, even to 0%. Whilst it is inevitable that such a dramatic reduction of interest rates will affect investment income in due course, the implication of this scenario for investment income in 2008/09 has been mitigated by treasury’s strategy of placing fixed rate deposits for extended periods. There is also some protection for the first quarter of 2009/10, but thereafter, reinvestment will be exposed to whatever market rates are at the time, and this is forecast to be significantly below where investment rates have been in recent years.
5.5.4 Unfortunately, reductions in the Base Rate do not feed through to borrowing cost in the short-term; since virtually all long-term finance is on effectively fixed rates.
5.5.5 Against this background of largely fixed debt costs and falling investment returns, the key strategy tool to support the treasury budget is the redemption of debt. This can remove both relatively high debt costs, and, in using hitherto invested funds to finance the redemption, reduce the amount of funds under investment and exposed to low and prospectively falling interest rates. However, this strategy requires the use of capital receipts to finance redemption premiums, and the programme for realising these receipts is delayed; (to an extent because of the deteriorating economic environment).
5.5.6 Against this background, the key issues with regard to treasury management and its budget performance are:-
(i) Cashflow Management Cashflow management is not seen to be problematic. Cashflow remains reasonably balanced, and for the foreseeable future, temporary borrowing facilities will be available to LBM at economic interest rates.
(ii) Long-term borrowing No new long-term borrowing has been undertaken to date in 2008/09. In a scenario of low investment returns it has been more economic to use invested balances to finance capital expenditure. However, looking forward, current long-term borrowing rates are at historically low levels, and at some point, whether or not in 2008/09, it may become appropriate to secure such finance for long-term benefit. The latter would only be pursued when the present strains on the treasury budget allow. (iii) Annuity Finance Annuity finance is the established means of financing short-life assets such as vehicles and IT equipment, (as opposed to leasing, which in recent years has been overall more expensive). To date in 2008/09 no
167 new annuity finance has been arranged, (any expenditure being covered by cashflow and invested balances). Whether or not annuity borrowing is undertaken before financial year-end, the economic effect on the budget is not significant.
(iv) Debt Management At £155.7m, long-term debt remains comfortably within the 2008/09 Prudential Indicators for Operational Boundary, £187.5m, and the Authorised Limit, £ 217.5m. Prospective debt maturities in 2008/09 remain below the established Prudential Indicator Limit of 12% of total debt. The average cost of long-term debt is 6.63%, and for the foreseeable future this is a stable rate.
No variable-rate debt is being carried, and lender’s option loans at risk of exercise are below the Prudential Indicator limit of 50% of total debt. At current market interest rates, the exercise of a lender’s option loan, and consequent repayment would be to the Authority’s economic advantage.
(v) Investment The balance of funds under investment has been running at circa £100m or over; supported by positive cashflow. Currently there are two investments of over one-year’s duration, totalling £10m, and as such fall comfortably below the 33% Prudential Indicator limit for deposits of over one-year maturity. The average interest rate for the total portfolio of deposits is 5.22%, which comfortably supports the overall 2008/09 treasury strategy and budget.
About 60% of the current portfolio is at fixed rates maturing in 2009/10, and this provides some support to investment income in that year. However, whilst efforts have been made to find adequately secure counterparties for longer deposits at appropriate interest rates, (and so protect the portfolio against falling rates), a worsening of the ‘credit crunch’ scenario has precluded this. The Council’s approved Treasury Policy requires compliance with DCLG guidance, and this requires security to be prioritised over yield. The problem of maintaining security whilst achieving investment advantage is confirmed by the Government’s provision, on 19th January 2008, of further support to the major banks.
(vi) Net debt/investment position The net amount of actual debt less all investments is currently around £61m, which is comfortably below the forecast Capital Financing Requirement (CFR) ceiling of £149.6m for 2008/09, and so is compliant with the Prudential Indicator that requires net debt to be below the CFR. Even if debt was at its Operational Boundary, (£187.5m), or the Authorised Limit, (£217.5m), the current total of funds under investment would produce a net debt position compliant with the Prudential Indicator.
168 The net forecast revenue position for the treasury budget has been affected by the limited and delayed progress on debt redemptions in 2008/09 to date. Whilst further debt redemption should be progressed if this becomes possible, prudence suggests that it is not appropriate to anticipate significant savings in 2008/09. However, investment strategy in the earlier part of 2008/09 was able to exploit relatively high interest rates when they were available, and this has allowed a better than budget performance in this area. It is therefore expected that the previously forecast revenue surplus of £0.224m for 2008/09 outturn will be secured. Given the present market situation and the dramatic lowering of interest rates, it is not considered prudent to assume that further benefit will be achieved.
5.6 Summary of Technical Pressures 5.6.1 There are a number of pressures and unknowns which will continue to be carefully monitored. The main concerns are:-