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Diapositiva 1 PIARC INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR Risk Management for Highway Infrastructure “Risk and Natural Disasters in Mexico” Víctor Orlando Magaña Instituto de Geografía UNAM Mérida, Yucatán, 9-11 october 2013 Risk and natural disasters in Mexico CICC, 2012 Drought Heat wave Forest fires Cold Wave Frosts Rains Floods The recent increase in the number of natural disasters is mainly related to more vulnerability to natural phenomena Devastation Mexico has spent more than US $10 billion dollars to recover from Natural Disasters during the last eight years De 2004 a 2012, el país destinó 135 mil 919 millones de pesos para atender las declaratorias de desastres •Periódico La Jornada Domingo 29 de septiembre de 2013, p. 2. La Jornada Fabiola Martínez The paradigm of disaster recovery is still dominant in Mexico The costs of Natural Disasters Manuel Ingrid 2013 An efficient strategy for disaster and risk management prevention for Mexico November 2012 The Mexican Government has not received payements from the Insurance Industry (WB) for Hurricanes and Earthqukes “MultiCat México 2012” Land falling Hurricanes in Mexico should be category 4 or 5 in the Saffir-Simpson Scale to receive payments México, sin cobrar bonos para atender catástrofes: Segob El gobierno federal no ha cobrado las pólizas de los bonos catastróficos que contrató con el Banco Mundial entre 2006 y 2009. Por ejemplo, para hacer efectivo este bono, tendría que haber ocurrido un huracán categoría entre 4 y cinco según las condiciones de cobro de este bono de riesgo. El coordinador nacional de Protección Civil, Luis Felipe Puente, consideró que los bonos catastróficos que contrató el gobierno de México con el Banco Mundial entre 2006 y 2009 son una mala inversión. The costs of natural disasters in the highway infrastructure is extremely high. TC Manuel in Guerrero around $US 250 millions. The Mexican government pays….! Advierte Molina por “The late warning 'superciclones' system” of the Mexican scientific community Evlyn Cervantes y Diana Saavedra Ciudad de México (20 septiembre 2013).- México debe prepararse ante el impacto de fenómenos meteorológicos cada vez más extremos y con mayor frecuencia a causa del cambio climático, advirtió el Premio Nobel de Química, Mario Molina. En entrevista, el científico mexicano reconoció los ciclones "Ingrid" y "Manuel", que han provocado la muerte de al menos 80 personas y un millón 200 mil damnificados, son un ejemplo de lo que pudiera suceder ante el aumento en la intensidad de los huracanes. The implementation of a Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System reduced the death toll related to these phenomena since the year 2000 Gilberto Paulina Manuel e Ingrid Wilma Alex 2013 CICC, 2012 Ciclón Tropical SIAT = SISTEMA DE ALERTA TEMPRANA But now,….. The early warning system (SIAT) for Mexico needs to be revised to consider the effects of intense precipitation and vulnerability The Saffir-Simpson scale is not useful enough to characterize the hazard Risk Model = f (hazard, vulnerability) a) b) NIVEL DE IMPACTO NIVEL DE IMPACTO NIVEL DE RIESGO NIVEL DE RIESGO RIESGO CRÍTICO RIESGO CRÍTICO VULNERABILIDAD AMENAZA AMENAZA VULNERABILIDAD Risk changes when c) NIVEL DE IMPACTO a) vulnerability (red line), NIVEL DE RIESGO RIESGO CRÍTICO b) Hazard (blue line), c) Hazard and vulnerability AMENAZA change. VULNERABILIDAD Impacts The need to charcaterize (quantify) vulnerability Physical – economical aspects of coastal vulnerability , highways Need to quantify the development of highway infrstructure and project it But, there is also a need to better define the hazard and make use of meteorological information How to estimate Risk to rains and tropical cyclones in Mexico? The characteristics of the natural hazard Isoyets Daily precipitation (mm) Return Period 5 and 50 years UNAM-SCT Huracán Paulina Huracán Wilma (5-10 Octubre 1997) (15-25 Octubre 2005) TCs may substantially contribute to summer rainfall Precipitación Huracán Alex de verano (29 Junio-6 Julio 2010) (1979-2011) Percentile 90% Percentile 95% Daily precipitation Daily precipitation (mm) (mm) Trends (1979-2011) percentile 90% and number of days above 90% percentile Days above 90% percentile 90% percentile Isoyets Daily precipitation (mm) Return Period 5 and 50 years State of Guerrero Observed-CMORPH WRF Model 15 Septiembre 2013 16 Septiembre 2013 Estimates of total precipitation between 11-20 September 2013 (mm/week) PCP-CMORPH The risk analysis and some impacts from Manuel and Ingrid La Pintada, Guerrero landslide Precipitation (mm/day) September 2013 Chilpancingo Veladero Acapulco 19761976 Acapulco 2010 Acapulco Estimated runoff for a rainfall of around 70 mm Changes due to land use change (deforestation) The floods in Acapulco after Hurricane Manuel September 2013 Trend in Changes in runoff: 2010 – 1976, mainly due to land use change increasing Rivers decreasing Highways Some recommendations • Review the hazard (TC) characterization to include the effects of precipitation • Prepare indices to charcaterize (quantify) vulnerability • Make use of more scientific information in the restoration and planning of infrastructure • The so-called Atlas de Riesgo should be updated periodically (5-10 years) Thank you.
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