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Review of Ofcom's List of Larger Parties Review of Ofcom’s list of larger parties Scottish Greens February 2016 Introduction The Scottish Green Party (SGP) was established in 1990, and has had a consistent presence in the Scottish Parliament since Holyrood was founded in 1999. After the Scottish independence referendum campaign, the party has gone through a significant period of growth – both in membership and its electoral support. SGP has always been registered as a distinct political party in Scotland, in contrast to Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats, all of which are subsections of UK-wide entities. The Scottish Greens welcome this consultation on the Review of Ofcom’s list of larger parties for elections taking place on 5 May 2016. We would like to call on Ofcom to reassess its proposed list of ‘larger parties’, and to reconsider new evidence and amend its framework for assessment. We believe that due to the current levels of Parliamentary representation of the Scottish Greens, the steadily growing levels of electoral support as well as the surge in public profile and membership of the party in recent years, the Scottish Greens should be included on the ‘larger parties list’. Additional evidence We welcome Ofcom’s focus on past and present electoral support in assessing the inclusion of parties on the ‘larger parties list’, but believe that where evidence is finely balanced, consideration should be given to broader trends in public support – namely, membership and public profile and support, Over the past two years, the Scottish Greens have seen a huge surge in public support and profile. The party’s membership has grown from approximately 1,200 in January 2014 to over 9,000 people in January 2016. This puts the Greens closer to the Scottish Conservatives’ membership figure than the Liberal Democrats’ membership figure (most recently estimated at 2,800), placing the Scottish Greens as the fourth largest Scottish party in terms of membership. The growing membership of the Scottish Greens has also been reflected in the party’s public presence. Green councillors and MSPs regularly feature in national and local media, and the party’s co-convenor, Patrick Harvie, has the second highest approval rating among Scottish party leaders at +25 (Ipsos Mori 2015). His rating is second only to the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and well ahead of other opposition leaders, Kezia Dugdale, Willie Rennie and Ruth Davidson (see image 1). Patrick Harvie is a well-known, recognisable and credible politician, and voters have come to expect his appearance alongside other leaders after his performance in major televised independence referendum debates. While the Scottish Greens are the fifth party in Parliament, the profile of and support for the party is on par with the four largest parties, and indeed clearly ahead of the Liberal Democrats. Image 1: Ipsos Mori 2015 Since the high-profile Green Yes campaign, the Scottish public have come to know and anticipate the Greens’ presence in the news, debates and other broadcasting. As mentioned above, our co-convenor Patrick Harvie has become widely recognised since his appearance in referendum debates, and Scottish voters have come to expect his contribution to political broadcasting. In December 2015, the Scottish Greens launched a petition calling on the BBC Trust to include the Scottish Greens in its ‘major parties’ list. The petition gathered over 6,000 responses in a short space of time, demonstrating that there is strong public demand for balanced coverage before the election, where the Scottish Greens feature alongside the four largest parties in Scotland. It should be noted that the First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon also stated her support for including the Greens in broadcasting and indicated that the SNP would adopt that position in their response to the BBC Trust consultation. Analytical framework While we recognise there is a need to provide some consistency and predictability for broadcasters to plan their election coverage, we would like to urge Ofcom to ensure this need is balanced with broadcasters’ ability to respond to changes in the political scene. The ‘Green surge’ has been one of the major changes since the Scottish independence referendum. It’s crucial that broadcasters adapt to changing circumstances, and strive to present timely and up-to-date election coverage to voters. Assessment of evidence The Scottish Green Party welcomes Ofcom’s decision to ‘exercise their judgement in favour of inclusion of a party on the list’, but have concerns that this approach has not been applied when considering the status of the Scottish Greens. As mentioned above, while we recognise the need for Ofcom to take a balanced, consistent approach to its broadcasting regulation, we are concerned that the body is not responding quickly enough to changes in the Scottish political context. The Scottish Greens have had a consistent presence in the Scottish Parliament since it was established in 1999, and since the Independence Referendum in 2014, our electoral support has grown significantly. The party’s electoral support is currently on par, and projected to surpass, the electoral support for the Liberal Democrats. At the moment, the Liberal Democrats have 5 MSPs in Holyrood. In contrast, the Scottish Green Group consists of 4 MSPs in total - two SGP MSPs (Patrick Harvie MSP and Alison Johnstone MSP), and two independent MSPs (John Wilson MSP and John Finnie MSP), both of whom are party members and are standing for re-election as Scottish Green Party candidates. In terms of current parliamentary representation, Scottish Greens are very close to the fourth largest party, Liberal Democrats. Polling from the past year indicates that the Scottish Greens are going to significantly increase their share of the vote in the Holyrood election in 2016. The average for twenty- seven polls conducted in 2014 put the Scottish Greens at 7.9% of the vote. Polls since January 2015 indicate that the Scottish Greens will return a record number of seats in the upcoming Holyrood election in 2016, and outperform the Liberal Democrats. Media coverage of the election thus far has clearly identified the Greens as a more relevant and interesting element of the campaign than the Liberal Democrats, given the widely held view that we are likely to overtake them in both votes and seats. An average projection, calculated by Weber Shandwick between January 2015 and November 2015 (see image 1), put the Liberal Democrats at 5.7% of the regional votes and Scottish Greens at 8% of regional votes. According to this estimate, UKIP, also excluded from the ‘larger parties list’, will receive 2.8% of the regional vote and win no seats in the Scottish Parliament. It is clear that in terms of electoral support in the coming Holyrood election, the Scottish Greens are at least on par with the fourth “larger” party, the Liberal Democrats, and certainly well ahead other parties with “minor” status. Image 2: Weber Shandwick 2015 In its assessment of past and present electoral support for the Scottish Greens, Ofcom rightly notes the 8.1% vote in the 2014 European election, as well as the predicted significant share of the regional vote in the Holyrood election in 2016. However, Ofcom appears to indicate the share of directly elected seats to be more relevant to its assessment than the share of regional votes. We do not believe this distinction to be useful, as it bears no direct significance to the number of seats a party will achieve in the election. We would also contest the relevance of 2015 General Election results in deciding coverage for Holyrood elections. The voting systems are significantly different and result in significant differences in voting behaviour. Whilst the European election is also conducted using a proportional system even it does not compare well to the Additional Member system used for Holyrood and it's two ballot papers. To place such weight on a first past the post- election jars with the reality of a parliament where close to half of the members are elected by proportional lists. This is simply not something General Election results can reflect. We recognise there is some uncertainty involved in assessing levels of support according to opinion polls, as seen in the UK general election of 2015. However, we would like to highlight that considering the current levels of Parliamentary representation for the Scottish Greens, growing support in polls over a number of years, as well as the surge in party membership, there is sufficient evidence to demonstrate a steady increase in support for SGP. Conclusion The Scottish Green Party has established itself as a major influence in Scottish politics, with a consistent presence in Holyrood, a leading position in the Scottish independence referendum and the most popular leader in the Scottish opposition. The party is already larger in membership than the Scottish Liberal Democrats, and likely to take over the position as the fourth largest Holyrood party in next May’s election. We believe the evidence presented above demonstrates that the Scottish Greens have sufficient electoral support and parliamentary representation to be considered one of the main parties in Scotland. We call on Ofcom to include the Scottish Greens on its list of larger parties. We would welcome a clear timescale for the publication of final guidance. For more information, contact: Ross Greer Party Development Officer Scottish Green Party 72 Newhaven Road Bonnington Mill Edinburgh EH6 6QG e. [email protected] m. 07757266796 .
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