Hit ill XA9744613 IAEA/J1-CN-63 LIMITED DISTRIBUTION WORKING MATERIAL ONE DECADE AFTER CHERNOBYL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FOTORE Reproduced by the IAEA Vienna, Austria, 1996 NOTE The material in this document has been supplied by the authors and has not been edited by the IAEA. The views expressed remain the responsibility of the named authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the govern- ments) of the designating Member State(s). In particular, neither the IAEA nor any other organization or body sponsoring this meeting can be held responsible for any material reproduced in this document. FOREWORD The environmental impact of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been subject to extensive investigation by scientists in the countries affected and by international organisations. Assessment of the environmental contamination and the resulting radiation exposure of the population was an important part of the International Chernobyl Project in 1990-1991. The IAEA has also been engaged in further studies in this area through projects such as the Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (VAMP) and through its Technical Co-operation Programme. The present project was initiated upon a proposal by Belarus to the 38th regular session of the IAEA General Conference in September 1994 to convene an international group of high level experts to study information drawn from ten years' studies of the Chernobyl accident and its consequences. France responded favourably to the Agency's invitations to help finance this study, supporting through the Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire (IPSN) a project focusing on the environmental impact of the Chernobyl accident. The IPSN provided the head of the project, assisted by a group of technical advisers. The technical investigation and the drafting necessary for the compilation of the final report were done by specialists from Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine in fields including radioecology, radiation protection, rehabilitation and recovery, economics and sociology. The work was based on the national reports and materials provided by the experts of the three Republics. The work was supervised by a Project Supervisory Committee composed of senior experts from Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine nominated by their Governments, one expert from France and a chairman from Denmark. This committee approved the final report after hearing comments from an International Peer Review Committee. The project had to be completed within a very limited time. Its successful conclusion is the result of the strong support from IPSN and the commitment shown in Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. These and other contributors (listed at the end of the report) are gratefully acknowledged. EDITORIAL NOTE This report was distributed as unedited Working Material during the International Conference on One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the Consequences of the Accident. The IAEA intends to publish the report in 1996. This special publication will take into account the comments of the Peer Review Committee, unify the terminology, and include definitions and a list of references. INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND One decade after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the levels of radioactive contamination of the affected territories are generally well known. Through the impetus from national and international organisations, scientific and technical studies are being undertaken in order to reach a better understanding of the circumstances of the accident, the behaviour of radioactive materials in different environmental media and the most efficient ways of decontamination. Doses received by populations have been and continue to be assessed. Taking into account the completed and ongoing studies by other organisations as well as the results of the International Chernobyl Project completed in 1991, the IAEA formulated, in co-operation with the Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire (IPSN) in France, a project focusing on the environmental impact of the Chernobyl accident. OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE The project aimed to make the findings of the scientists understandable to and relevant for the decision makers, who form the target group. Thus the study focused on the environmental impact in the future and was complementary to the other studies performed. It was a synthesis of available material and reports. The questions to be addressed within the scope of the project were, for example, whether or not people could live safely in the areas studied, whether or not agriculture could be resumed and, if not, how and when can these areas be restored and living conditions improved. The effects of remedial actions taken and the development of criteria for these actions internationally and in the three republics were described. Issues related to the preservation of the natural environment were also addressed. The project concentrated on chronic exposure of the population, at the same time looking at particular areas, such as the 30 km exclusion zone, the Gomel oblast and part of the Bryansk region. STRUCTURE The project adresses four different but interrelated issues and the syntheses made are reported in four main sections of the report. The first section describes the present situation and gives a prognosis for the future, including mapping of deposited radioactive materials and quantification of the contamination, quantification of the resulting levels of exposure of inhabitants, with and without II counter-measures, and a prognosis of how and at what rate these levels will change in the future. The living conditions in the selected areas are described in Section 2. Lack of investment and unemployment in the areas and hindrances to industry and agriculture, as well as the possibilities of recovery, are addressed. The effects on the natural environment in these contaminated areas are reviewed in Section 3. Section 4 describes possible remedial actions. Effects, development, efficiency and costs are described for remedial actions such as modification of agriculture and foresty, decontamination of urban sites, and relocation and rehabilitation. The conclusions drawn from the study are summarized in the first chapter, which is a self-standing summary of the project. An annex gives a review of the international criteria for long term countermeasures. Ill CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Contamination of territories ES-1 2. Impact on Faunae and Florae in the exclusion zone ES-6 3. Effectiveness of agricultural countermeasures ES-7 4. Evaluation of doses ES-8 5. Impact of the accident and countermeasures on people's welfare and lifestyle ES-11 6. Evolution of intervention levels and temporary permissible levels for drinking water and foodstuffs Evolution of the international criteria ES-13 7. General conclusions ES-14 CHAPTER I DESCRIPTION OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND PROGNOSIS FOR THE FUTURE 1.1. Characteric of soil contamination 1-1 1.2. Characteristic of water contamination 1-5 1.3. Characteristic and dynamic of agricultural contamination 1-7 1.4. Characteristic of forest contamination 1-12 1.5. Individual annual doses and lifetime doses to population 1-15 1.6. Dose rate reduction with time 1-18 1.7. Conclusions 1-19 References 1-19 List of tables 1-22 List of figures 1-33 CHAPTER II FACTORS AFFECTING THE NORMAL LIFE IN CONTAMINATED REGIONS 2.1 Common processes and facts II-l 2.1.1. Effects of the disaster on the population well-being II-l 2.1.2. Effects on industrial and agricultural production II-2 2.1.3. Structural changes in agriculture practices in the contaminated territories II-2 2.1.4. Conditions for living safely II-3 2.2. The situation in the Belarus II-4 2.2.1. Effects of the disaster on the population well-being II-4 2.2.2. Effects on industrial and agricultural production II-5 2.2.3. Structural changes in agriculture practices in the contaminated territories II-9 2.2.4. Conditions for living safely 11-12 2.3. The situation in the Russian Federation 11-13 2.3.1. Effects of the disaster on the population well-being 11-13 2.3.2. Effects on industrial and agricultural production 11-16 2.3.3. Structural changes in agriculture practices in the contaminated territories 11-16 2.3.4. Conditions for living safely 11-17 2.4. The situation in the Ukraine 11-19 2.4.1. Effects of the disaster on the population well-being 11-19 2.4.2. Effects on industrial and agricultural production 11-22 2.4.3. Structural changes in agriculture practices in the contaminated territories 11-23 2.4.4. Conditions for living safely 11-24 CHAPTER III CONSEQUENCES OF CONTAMINATION ON FLORAE AND FAUNAE IN THE EXCLUSION ZONE 3.1. General radiological description of the exclusion zone III-l 3.2. Impact of radioactive pollution on the environment in the exclusion zone III-2 3.2.1. Impact of irradiation on Florae and Faunae in the early phase of the accident III-3 3.2.2. Radioactive contamination of biocenoses and death of coniferous forests III-3 3.2.3. Restorative processes in perennial plants sprouting in the exclusion zone III-4 3.2.4. Mutagenic effects III-8 3.2.5. Impact of irradiation and contamination of Faunae III-11 3.2.6. Radiosensitivity of animals 111-12 3.2.7. Change in the microbic cenosis of soil 111-13 3.3. Prognosis for the ecological situation in the exclusion zone for the next 10 years 111-14 3.4. Conclusions III-15 References III-16 11 List of tables and figures 111-17 CHAPTER IV DESCRIPTION OF POSSIBLE REMEDIAL ACTIONS IN LONG TERM EXPOSURE SITUATION 4.1. Criteria for involvment in the USSR (1986-1989) and in the Belarus Republic, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine (1990-1995) IV-1 4.2. Comparaison of CIS criteria with international criteria IV-7 4.3. The effectiveness of the completed protection and rehabilitation measures and the prospects for their use IV-9 4.3.1.