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VOLTAS Stellar Quarter; Big White Goods Market Play

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VOLTAS Stellar Quarter; Big White Goods Market Play RESULT UPDATE VOLTAS Stellar quarter; big white goods market play India Equity Research| Engineering and Capital Goods Voltas (VOLT) had a strong Q4FY17—margin at 5-years’ high (projects), EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS strong A/C business momentum (revenue up 28%) and easily navigating Absolute Rating BUY margin/market share concerns in this business. That said, a landscape Rating Relative to Sector Performer changing development could be VOLT’s decision to enter the white goods Risk Rating Relative to Sector Low business in a 50:50 JV with Arcelik. It’s a big market (INR350bn, 3x VOLT’s Sector Relative to Market Overweight current AC market), fast growing (10-15%), dominated by MNC’s (technology edge; so it needs the tie up) and one where its brand & MARKET DATA (R: VOLT.BO, B: VOLT IN) distribution can quickly enable VOLT establish itself. While it’s still early CMP : INR 475 days and there’s more detail needed, we estimate this business to add 8- Target Price : INR 522 10% to VOLT’s earnings in FY20, apart from synergies. That this business 52-week range (INR) : 484 / 287 is profitable and well valued (peers’ 25% ROCE, 35x PE) should augur well Share in issue (mn) : 330.9 for the stock. Enthused by this, we raise FY18/19 EPS estimate 10% each M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 157 / 2,433 (projects business), see strategic & earnings upside on its JV and raise TP Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 1,675.0 to INR522 (INR375 earlier; revise up consumer business’ target multiple to 35x (earlier 25x). Maintain ‘BUY’. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Current Q3FY17 Q2FY17 Stellar performance allays rising competitive intensity concerns Promoters * 30.3 30.3 30.3 VOLT clocked solid 28% and 21% YoY top-line growth in cooling products business MF's, FI's & BK’s 26.5 27.1 27.2 during Q4FY17 and FY17, respectively, coupled with stable EBITDA margin driven by FII's 20.7 22.4 22.4 better projects margin. While we agree that competitive intensity will escalate, Others 22.5 20.2 20.1 structural drivers like rising middle class and huge untapped market (<5% penetration) * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) will provide ample growth opportunities over next 5 years. The Arcelik tie up: Strategic & earnings potential PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) EW Capital The Arcelik tie up, we believe, could be meaningful. It enables VOLT target a big market Stock Nifty Goods Index (refrigerators, washing machines, microwaves dishwashers), leverage its brand & distribution (95% overlap with target market), brings in tech & product access (needed) 1 month 15.3 1.7 (1.3) and potentially opens up an entirely ne`w business line. While more detail is needed, 3 months 33.1 6.4 15.0 our early estimates indicate that even 5% market share in FY20 could add 8-10% to EPS 12 months 40.3 17.8 22.1 (not incorporated). That’s material and could change VOLT’s market’s perception. Outlook & valuations: Expanding target market; maintain ‘BUY’ The stock had a good run and is expensive at 27x FY19E with a 20% pop post the Arcelik announcement. That said, with a potentially landscape changing venture, a benchmark valuation framework that could be fundamentally higher (white goods peers trade at 30-40x), we see valuation tailwinds for AC business. Maintain ‘BUY/SP’. Financials (Consolidated) (INR mn) Amit Mahawar Year to March Q4FY17 Q4FY16 % change Q3FY17 % change FY17E FY18E FY19E +91 22 4040 7451 Net revenues 20,351 18,888 7.7 11,805 72.4 60,328 68,449 77,360 [email protected] EBITDA 2,219 2,142 3.6 890 149.5 5,791 7,132 8,105 Swarnim Maheshwari +91 22 4040 7418 Adj. net profit 2,018 1,668 20.9 829 143.3 5,079 5,518 6,078 [email protected] Dil. EPS (INR) 6.1 5.0 20.9 2.5 143.3 15.4 16.7 18.4 Diluted P/E (x) 30.9 28.5 25.8 ROAE (%) 16.5 15.6 15.3 May 26, 2017 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods Extending presence in white goods segment VOLT and Arcelik (part of the Koc Group, Turkey’s largest industrial and services group) have announced to establish a Joint Venture (50:50) in India to enter the consumer durables market with initial investments of USD100mn. The proposed JV is expected to leverage VOLT’s strong brand presence and wide sales & distribution network with over 12K touch points. Arçelik will bring its strong R&D and manufacturing prowess, in addition to a wide product range and global sourcing capabilities. The JV, under the Voltas Beko brand, will launch refrigerators, washing machines, microwaves and other white goods / domestic appliances in India. A manufacturing facility will be set up in the country and the JV will also source products from Arçelik’s global manufacturing facilities and vendor base. White goods market could continue to clock double digit growth over the next 5 years The white goods market in India (refrigerators, washing machines, microwaves and dishwashers) is currently pegged at ~INR350bn, which is expected to clock double digit growth over the next 3-5 years (past 10 years is ~14%) as: A) rise in middle class population and their per capita income will enhance market penetration; and B) increase in discretionary spend on consumer durables and premium products with rising disposable incomes. Benchmark valuation framework in white goods could rerate VOLT further Conservatively assuming a market share of ~5% by FY20 in the white goods market, the VOLT JV can easily garner revenue of ~INR25bn with PAT of ~INR1.5bn (EBITDA margin at 9%). Benchmarking the current valuation framework of global MNCs like Whirlpool of India and Johnson Controls Hitachi AC, we believe VOLT can easily add around ~USDINR400-500mn market cap (please refer table below). Management comments about JV • Management believes the JV with Arcelik is a logical extension of the brand in the consumer durables space. Arcelik and KOC are recognised brands in Turkey, UK and Poland in the consumer durables business. • They together plan to bring Beko brand to India under the Voltas– Beko brand. • The products will be imported initially. However, the company is planning to set up a manufacturing unit soon, details of which will be decided by Arcelik and VOLT mutually. • VOLT is planning to widen its scope in the consumer durables white goods industry and Arcelik brings a lot of strengths to the table—product range, technological excellence and relevant customer connect. • The JV will start with VOLT’s distribution channel, but it will be extended going forward. • VOLT is planning to launch the Voltas– Beko brand during the FY18 diwali season. The range of products includes refrigerators, washing machines, microwaves and dishwashers. Initially, some products will be manufactured and some will be imported. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Voltas • The JV will have a phased investment of INR6.8bn with 50:50 share. The investment can increase based on future demand. • VOLT is eyeing 10% market share within reasonable time. Table 1: Valuation Benchmarking and VOLT’s potential FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Industry Size (INR bn) 350 394 443 498 Yoy growth % 12.5 12.5 12.5 Market Share (%) Whirlpool 12.5 11.9 12.4 12.7 Hitachi 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.9 VOLT JV 0.8 3.0 5.0 Revenues (INR bn) Whirlpool 44 47.0 55.0 63.3 Hitachi 2022.025.529.3 VOLT JV - 3.2 13.3 24.9 EBITDA Margins (%) Whirlpool 12.9 12.8 13.2 13.4 Hitachi 8.8 8.7 10.6 10.8 VOLT JV 6.0 7.5 9.0 PAT Margins (%) Whirlpool 7.1 8.5 8.6 8.3 Hitachi 4.1 4.8 5.9 5.8 VOLT JV 3.9 4.9 5.9 P/E Multiple (x) Whirlpool 46.8 36.3 30.5 27.6 Hitachi 60.5 46.7 34.3 30.2 VOLT JV 30.0 27.0 Mcap to sales (x) Whirlpool 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.3 Hitachi 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 VOLT JV - 2.3 2.0 Potential Mcap for Voltas ltd. On P/E 19.7 (At 50% JV share) (INR bn) On Mcap/ sales 24.9 Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research Table 2: SOTP valuations FY18FY19 Taluation FY19 TP (INR mn) Revenue PAT EPS Revenue PAT EPSMethodol Multiple Comment (INR) EMP Segment 29,698 1,373 4.2 32,871 1,477 4.5 P/E 14 40% discount to S&P BSE 63 Capital Goods Index Engineering 3,555 694 2.1 3,936 749 2.3 P/E 14 40% discount to S&P BSE 32 Segment Capital Goods Index Unitary Cooling 35,059 3,598 10.9 40,399 4,032 12.2 P/E 35 Market leader in 15-20% 427 Segment CAGR industry. Total 68,312 5,666 17.1 77,206 6,258 18.9 522 Source: Edelweiss research 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods Q4 FY17 conference call: Key highlights Guidance - FY18: Management is targeting 6% margin in the EMPS segment. Highlights • FY17 tax rate fell to 28% due to refund from previous adjustments. • In FY17, Voltas’ room AC volumes grew 33% versus industry’s 31%. Consumer durables industry: The consumer durables industry had market size of INR350bn in India in FY17 with volume of 20mn units.
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