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Tata Global Beverages ICICI Direct Research TataTAT Global Beverages (TATGLO) CMP: | 390 Target: | 450 (15%) Target Period: 12 months BUY February 5, 2020 Profitability boost led by India volumes, high margins Particulars Consolidated sales increased 2.6% YoY to | 1,961.9 crore, mainly driven by Particulars (| crore) Amount 20% growth in the non-branded business. The tea business reported muted Market Capitalization 24,612.9 growth of 2% whereas the coffee business declined 4%. On the volume Total Debt (FY19) 1,116.9 front, the India tea business reported healthy growth of 7%. Operating Cash and Investments (FY19) 1,616.8 margins expanded 195 bps to 12.2%, benefitted by benign commodity costs EV 24,113.0 and control over operating overheads. PAT increased 24.8% YoY to | 135.9 52 week H/L (|) 407 / 178 crore on account of higher operating profit, lower tax rate and better Equity capital 92.2 performance from associate and JVs on a YoY basis. Face value (|) 1.0 Result Update Result India volumes, non-branded business aid growth momentum Key Highlights India tea volume and revenue growth was 7% and 6%, respectively, led by US coffee business declines 3% with strong double-digit growth in Tata Tea Agni, Spice Mix and robust growth 2% volume de-growth due to higher in Tata Tea Premium. EBITDA margins improved 96 bps YoY to 13.8% on promotion spends and increased account of favourable commodity prices. We expect 7% revenue CAGR over competitive intensity FY19-22E driven by market share gains, inorganic growth initiatives and premiumisation. We expect margins to stabilise at 14-15% led by cost saving Other international businesses (UK, initiatives and premiumisation strategy. On the other hand, non-branded Canada) saw 1% volume de-growth business witnessed strong 20% growth during the quarter primarily led by due to decline in sales of regular tea 25% YoY growth in Tata Coffee. Volumes grew 14% during the quarter on account of commencement of the Vietnam facility. The company realised Starbucks store count is at 174 higher profitability in the Tata Coffee segment due to higher volumes and (opened 28 new stores in Q3FY20) exceptional gain on account of one-time credit. Reiterate BUY recommendation with International businesses continues to remain sluggish target price of | 450 The US coffee business witnessed volume de-growth of 2% with underlying revenue de-growth of 3% on account of higher promotional spend and Research Analyst increased competitive intensity in Eight O’ Clock. However, K-cups and Sanjay Manyal private label coffee segments witnessed some volume growth during the [email protected] quarter. The UK witnessed flat revenue growth impacted by a decline in the black tea market. It has started facing growth challenges in the green tea Kapil Jagasia, CFA [email protected] Research Equity Retail category as well in the UK market. The Canada market saw 5% revenue – growth driven by higher black tea & speciality tea sales and new launches. Tetley Cold Infusions and Tetley black tea were able to maintain 23% and 29% growth in UK and Canada, respectively. TGBL is focusing on improving its product mix in favour of speciality & herbal teas and has been incurring higher media spends towards new launches in the category. This should help reverse the slump in revenue growth in international markets. Valuation & Outlook ICICI Securities Securities ICICI TGBL’s India business revenue contribution has increased from the previous 47% in FY19 to ~49% in 9MFY20 with impressive EBITDA margins of 14.2%. The company has been exiting the non-core international markets, which has been a drag on sales growth. We value TGBL on an SOTP basis, valuing the India domestic business (including TCL’s consumer business) at 5x FY22E sales, international business (US, UK, Canada) at 0.75x FY22E sales and Starbucks JV at 2x FY22E sales. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a target price of | 450 per share. Key Financial Summary s Key Financials FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E CAGR (FY19-22E) Net Sales 6815.4 7251.5 7558.5 10257.0 10978.9 14.8% EBITDA 838.9 785.9 945.7 1450.4 1623.8 27.4% EBITDA Margin % 12.3 10.8 12.5 14.1 14.8 Net Profit 556.5 457.0 502.4 875.7 998.1 29.7% EPS (|) 8.8 7.2 8.0 9.5 10.8 P/E 44.2 53.9 49.0 41.0 36.0 RoNW % 8.1 6.5 6.8 6.5 7.2 RoCE (%) 8.7 8.4 8.7 8.6 9.4 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Tata Global Beverages ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis EESes Q3FY20 Q3FY19 YoY (%) Q2FY20 QoQ (%) Comments Net sales increased 2.6% YoY mainly driven by 20% growth in non-branded Net Sales 1,961.9 1,912.6 2.6 1,834.1 7.0 business. India tea business reported decent volume growth of 7% during the quarter Gross margins improved 142 bps YoY on account of lower commodity Raw Material Expenses 1,056.3 1,056.9 -0.1 1,010.3 4.6 costs Employee Expenses 209.0 205.1 1.9 199.0 5.0 SG&A Expenses 171.9 155.2 10.8 136.7 25.8 Other operating Expenses 285.1 299.1 -4.7 253.5 12.5 EBITDA 239.6 196.2 22.1 234.7 2.1 Operating margins expanded 195 bps to 12.8% as gross margins improved EBITDA Margin (%) 12.2 10.3 195 bps 12.8 -58 bps 142 bps YoY in addition to 110 bps decline in other overheads to sales Depreciation 49.2 29.6 65.9 46.8 5.0 Depreciation increased owing to adoption of Ind-AS accounting standard Interest 19.2 13.0 48.4 20.1 -4.2 Interest increased owing to adoption of Ind-AS accounting standard Other Income 26.0 22.6 14.9 25.3 2.6 Exceptional Expense/(Income) 0.8 0.0 NA 1.5 NA PBT 196.4 176.2 11.4 191.6 2.5 Tax Outgo 55.9 54.9 1.8 48.3 15.7 PAT before MI 140.5 121.3 15.8 143.2 -1.9 Profit from Associates -4.6 -12.4 NA 9.2 NA Led by higher operating profit, lower tax rate and better performance from PAT 135.9 108.9 24.8 152.5 -10.9 associate and JVs on a YoY basis, PAT increased 24.8% YoY to | 135.9 crore Adj. PAT 136.5 108.9 25.3 153.6 -11.2 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY20E FY21E FY22E Comments (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change New We introduce FY22E numbers. Tata Chemicals consumer Sales 7648.4 7558.5 -1.2 8094.8 10257.0 26.7 10,978.9 business numbers incorporated EBITDA 1020.2 945.7 -7.3 1090.5 1450.4 33.0 1,623.8 Revise margin estimates on account of higher marketing EBITDA Margin (%) 13.3 12.5 -83 bps 13.5 14.1 64 bps 14.8 spends on account of new launches in India and international markets PAT 581.3 509.8 -12.3 639.0 875.7 37.0 998.1 EPS (|) 9.2 8.0 -13.6 10.1 9.5 -5.9 10.8 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY21 revenue estimates revised upwards on account Standalone Sales (| crore) 3,217.3 3,429.7 3,669.7 3,926.6 4,201.5 3,669.7 3,709.5 of strong performance in domestic business Growth (%) 5.0 6.6 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 5.8 Subsidiary revenue estimates lowered due to Subsidiary Sales (| crore) 2,716.6 2,895.9 2,828.3 2,915.1 3,024.0 2,923.4 3,330.4 declining black tea revenues Growth (%) -2.6 6.6 -2.3 3.1 3.7 1.0 4.0 Segmental Revenues (Gross) Tea 4,922.8 5,202.6 5,400.3 5,724.3 6,067.8 5,462.7 5,790.5 Coffee 1,079.5 1,202.8 1,184.8 1,244.0 1,293.8 1,214.9 1,338.8 Others 35.7 30.8 28.3 29.7 31.2 32.3 33.9 Non-branded 815.2 842.5 977.3 1,035.9 1,087.7 968.8 946.6 TCL Consumer 2,255.2 2,525.8 No. of Starbucks stores 116 146 176 196 216 176 186 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Tata Global Beverages ICICI Direct Research Conference Call Highlights TGBL’s India business witnessed volume growth of 7% and revenue growth of 6% aided by strong growth in national and regional brands. Tata Tea Agni and Tata Tea Spice Mix saw double digit revenue growth Strong revenue growth was seen even in the Tata Tea Premium brand. As per the management, the Lal Ghoda brand, which was acquired last year, has been well integrated into the company and delivered growth as per expectations The company launched multi-regional marketing campaign ‘Desh Ki Chai’ campaign under Tata Tea Premium across Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab and Haryana US coffee sales witnessed 2% volume de-growth with underlying revenue de-growth of 3% on account of higher promotional spend and increased competitive intensity in Eight O’ Clock.
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