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Quarterly Quotes August 2021 Compendium of conference calls: Q1FY22 Quarterly Quotes Headwinds galore On a firm footing to Debt ride the trend woes Challenges ahead Policy push Growth levers in place Demand swing Consolidation Debt to be wave f rolled over Rising ad spends Costs in control cus Edelweiss Research Team +91 22 2286 4400 Edelweiss Securities Limited research@edelweissfin.com Q1FY22 conference call highlights Dear Investor and Corporate, Quarterly numbers matter; they lend a quantitative as well as qualitative sheen to what has been (Q1FY22 review). But management quotes go far beyond plain-vanilla numbers: they offer deeper insights into what individual companies are doing, how they are thinking and how market participants are perceiving them. That one can benchmark them to industry peers or their previous observations and/or collate them by sector extends their relevance well beyond the results or near-term influences. Management quotes are, hence, far more significant and relevant than mere numbers for the market. Ongoing management commentaries also entail links and threads to a bigger picture as to what’s happening—not only at individual companies, but also in the sector and markets. Besides, they contain a key element of guidance, helping investors identify winning ideas and shed potential losers. So, more than the numbers, it’s the linkage across numbers that’s of bigger import. We try to tie the threads via links to previous quarters (Q4FY21 and Q3FY21). Muted Q1FY22 top-line growth – up only 3% on 2Y CAGR – reflects the fallout of the ravaging second wave. Earnings momentum sustained though, with our coverage universe posting 17% PAT on a 2Y CAGR basis (estimate: 22%). Even so, earnings growth is visibly narrow, led by commodities, banks and exporters (>15% 2Y CAGR), while domestic consumption contracted (2Y CAGR basis). Margin pressure is evident across the board as input prices rose and cost rationalisation measures seem to have largely played out. In the banking sector, slippages rose led by MSMEs and retail. For FY22 Nifty EPS, estimates are largely intact (in the wake of upgrades for past three quarters) with cuts in Banks and Consumers countervailed by upgrades in Commodities. Edelweiss Nifty FY21/22/23E EPS is INR523/680/800 (consensus forecast: INR523/710/830). For those in a hurry, a round-up of key takeaways, quotes and notables that could be reflective of the issues that matter is included. The compendium captures the essence and nuances of what companies are saying bottom-up. We do hope you find this product useful and, as always, welcome feedback to make it better and more relevant for you. Edelweiss Research Team Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson FirstCall, Reuters and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited Q1FY22 conference call highlights A round-up of key takeaways Commodity cost pressure to continue in Q2FY22 Automobiles From these levels of slippages, we should see a significant improvement in the quarters to come, with a caveat that COVID 3.0 is nowhere as intense as COVID 2.0. And subject to that, I am optimistic about a significant improvement in slippages...”. Banking Mr. Uday Kotak, MD & CEO, KMB Pricing and cost control aiding OPMs; pent-up largely behind Consumer Durables “May was severely impacted as a large part of the country was under localized lockdown. As restrictions lifted FMCG progressively, June month rebounded to Mar-21 levels.” — Mr. Sanjiv Mehta, Chairman & Managing Director, HUL “There is a huge shortage of PVC and this is going to support cash-rich companies of organized brands and players.” Home Decor — Mr. Sandeep Engineer, MD, Astral Ltd Impressive ordering & growth commentary; on- Industrials ground execution lags 2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson FirstCall, Reuters and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited Q1FY22 conference call highlights We are still just scratching the surface on the headroom or opportunity we have in term of digital adoption across verticals and across segments IT —N. G. Subramaniam, COO, TCS Looking forward, we see the demand outlook further improving into the second Metals & Mining half and have therefore upgraded our steel consumption forecasts for the year. Aditya Mittal, ArcelorMittal CEO xx Strong margin show despite the plunge in volumes Oil & Gas Jubilant Foodworks: Plan to open 150-175 stores for Dominos in FY22. While there may be marginal Retail cannibalization due to split stores, overall it expects the revenue, payback profile to be similar to existing performance. We want current logistic challenges to continue as despite near term margin pressure, it is helping us gaining more market share globally as other countries are not able meet global Specialty Chemicals requirement. —Fine Organics Tariff hike remains critical to revive the sector and pricing structure has to change where Telecom operators have the ability to charge customers for incremental usage” –Ravinder Takkar, CEO, Vodafone Idea Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson FirstCall, Reuters and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 3 Q1FY22 conference call highlights Contents Abrasives Carborundum Universal......................................................................................... 11 Agri Inputs Coromandel International ..................................................................................... 15 Dhanuka Agritech .................................................................................................. 18 PI Industries ........................................................................................................... 20 Rallis India .............................................................................................................. 22 Sharda Cropchem .................................................................................................. 24 UPL ......................................................................................................................... 26 Auto & auto components Ashok Leyland ........................................................................................................ 29 Bajaj Auto .............................................................................................................. 33 CEAT ....................................................................................................................... 36 Eicher Motors ........................................................................................................ 38 Hero MotoCorp...................................................................................................... 40 Mahindra and Mahindra ........................................................................................ 43 Maruti Suzuki ......................................................................................................... 46 Minda Corporatieon .............................................................................................. 50 Motherson Sumi Systems ...................................................................................... 53 Suprajit Engineering............................................................................................... 54 Tata Motors ........................................................................................................... 56 Banks, financial services and insurance Aavas Financiers .................................................................................................... 61 Axis Bank ................................................................................................................ 62 Bandhan Bank ........................................................................................................ 64 Bajaj Finserv ........................................................................................................... 66 DCB Bank ............................................................................................................... 68 Federal Bank .......................................................................................................... 70 HDFC Bank ............................................................................................................. 72 HDFC Life Insurance Company ............................................................................... 75 ICICI Bank ............................................................................................................... 77 ICICI Lombard General Insurance .......................................................................... 79 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance ............................................................................... 81 IndusInd Bank ........................................................................................................ 84 4 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson FirstCall, Reuters and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited Q1FY22 conference call highlights Kotak Mahindra Bank ............................................................................................ 86 LIC Housing Finance ............................................................................................... 88 Mahindra Finance .................................................................................................. 90 Shriram City Union Finance ..................................................................................
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