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31January 2020 India Daily INDIA DAILY January 31, 2020 India 30-Jan 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Sensex 40,914 (0.7) (0.8) 2.0 Nifty 12,036 (0.8) (1.1) 1.3 Contents Global/Regional indices Dow Jones 28,859 0.4 1.1 6.7 Daily Alerts Nasdaq Composite 9,299 0.3 3.6 12.1 Results FTSE 7,382 (1.4) (2.1) 1.8 Dabur India: Healthy print in context of the challenging demand backdrop Nikkei 23,355 1.6 (1.3) 1.9 Hang Seng 26,536 0.3 (5.9) (1.4) Pidilite Industries: RM tailwinds drive earnings growth KOSPI 2,154 0.3 (2.0) 3.4 Value traded – India Tata Motors: Cost saving efforts in JLR to continue Cash (NSE+BSE) 401 379 134 14,00 Derivatives (NSE) 31,256 10,860 Colgate-Palmolive (India): Another subdued print 1 Deri. open interest 4,324 3,216 3,544 Bharat Electronics: Another quarter of miss in execution Equitas Holdings: A better performance Forex/money market Change, basis points Results, Change in Reco 30-Jan 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Bajaj Finserv: General muted; steady progress in life Rs/US$ 71.4 14 9 51 10yr govt bond, % 7.0 (1) (1) (1) Bajaj Auto: Better-placed than other two-wheeler stocks for FY2021E Net investment (US$ mn) Company alerts 29-Jan MTD CYTD FIIs (203) 1,897 1,897 Aurobindo Pharma: Unit-VII receives an OAI MFs 106 108 108 Top movers – 3mo basis Sector alerts Change, % Consumer Staples: Month in review - Dec 2019 Best performers 30-Jan 1-day 1-mo 3-mo IHFL IN Equity 308 (2.3) (1.7) 49.0 BHARTI IN Equity 490 (0.1) 7.5 30.9 BHIN IN Equity 246 0.4 (2.5) 29.8 TTCH IN Equity 758 0.0 13.6 20.9 TGBL IN Equity 382 (0.5) 18.7 20.4 Worst performers YES IN Equity 39 (5.2) (16.8) (44.5) HPCL IN Equity 240 (2.3) (9.2) (26.2) BHEL IN Equity 44 (1.1) 1.4 (22.1) IOCL IN Equity 117 (1.0) (6.7) (20.2) ONGC IN Equity 116 (1.7) (10.2) (18.4) [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. REDUCE Dabur India (DABUR) Consumer Staples JANUARY 30, 2020 RESULT Sector view: Cautious Healthy print in context of the challenging demand backdrop. Dabur’s 3QFY20 CMP (`): 479 earnings print was broadly in line with our expectations. Domestic FMCG volume and Fair Value (`): 440 value growth prints of 5.6% each were healthy in context of (1) further deceleration in BSE-30: 40,914 industry demand, and (2) a high base. We like Dabur’s aggression, clarity of thought and in-market execution under the new CEO. Rich valuations keep us from turning positive on the stock. REDUCE stays with a revised fair value of Rs440 (from Rs425). Dabur India Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2020E 2021E 2022E 52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 506-357 EPS (Rs) 9.5 11.0 12.0 Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 846/11.9 EPS growth (%) 16.8 15.5 9.7 ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 840/12 P/E (X) 50.4 43.7 39.8 Shareholding pattern (%) P/B (X) 13.2 11.8 10.7 Promoters 67.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 41.8 36.4 31.6 FIIs 17.6 RoE (%) 27.8 28.5 28.1 MFs/BFIs 3.5/4.3 Div. yield (%) 0.9 1.1 1.4 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Sales (Rs bn) 92 103 115 Absolute 3 4 11 EBITDA (Rs bn) 20 23 26 Rel. to BSE-30 5 2 (3) Net profits (Rs bn) 17 19 21 3QFY20 – navigates the choppy waters well but no Real cheer Dabur’s 3QFY20 earnings print was largely in line with our expectations with better-than-expected performance in the international business making up for some disappointment in the India business. India business volume and value growth of 5.6% yoy was impressive in the challenging demand backdrop but also reflective of what the most aggressive player with the most favorable (naturals) tailwinds can achieve in the current market context. Consolidated headline financials – revenues up 7% yoy to Rs23.5 bn, broadly in line with our estimates. Gross margin print of 50.1% (+79 bps yoy) was also in line. EBITDA of Rs4.9 bn (+11% yoy) came in 4% below estimate but largely on account of higher-than-expected adspends – a high-quality miss. EBITDA margins stood at 20.9%, +69 bps yoy and 71 bps below our estimate. PBT grew 9% yoy to Rs5 bn, 5% below while recurring PAT stood at Rs4.14 bn (+13% yoy), 4% below. ETR of 17.4% was down 270 bps yoy. For 9MFY20, revenues, EBITDA and recurring PAT grew 7%, 12% and 15%, respectively; 9M EPS: Rs7/share. Standalone headline financials – revenues up 5% yoy to Rs17.5 bn, 2% below estimate. Volume growth of 5.6% was broadly in line with our estimate of 6%. Gross margins expanded 69 bps yoy to 48.8% on the back of benign RM inflation. EBITDA grew 7% yoy to Rs3.9 bn, 4% below estimate; EBITDA margins stood at 22.4%, +43 bps yoy. Foods business (primarily juices) had another weak quarter (-1.7%) while hair oils (+0.4% yoy), home care (+2.5% yoy) and skin care (-0.3%) segments saw subdued prints as well. Health Supplements (+12% yoy), digestives (+16%) and oral care (+8.5%) reported strong growth. Rohit Chordia Trim estimates; retain REDUCE Jaykumar Doshi Dabur offered weak short-term prognosis on industry demand environment while maintaining that its aggressive market share gain interventions should keep the company growing significantly ahead of the market. This may still translate into subdued absolute growth in 4QFY20, in our Aniket Sethi view. We continue to bake in revenue acceleration in FY2021E (12% consolidated revenue growth versus 8% in FY2020E) and there may be downside risks to our estimates should demand stay weak. Our EPS forecasts are broadly unchanged as we tweak our revenue, margin and ETR assumptions marginally. We like the new-found aggression as well as execution. REDUCE rating (maintained) reflects discomfort on rich valuations. [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Dabur India Consumer Staples Conference call takeaways Growth outlook. FMCG demand decelerated during the quarter. Weak demand was further exacerbated by liquidity crunch. The management does not see green shoots in any category at this juncture. Despite weak demand environment, Dabur continues to invest in key brands and distribution expansion. Selectively extending credit. Dabur is selectively extending credit to some distributors who are facing liquidity challenges. Rural growth trending ahead of urban. Rural continues to perform well for Dabur, growing much ahead of urban. The management highlighted that urban growth continues to decelerate. Dabur’s rural reach is now 51,511 villages, up 17% yoy and rural contributes 45-46% to the business. Other highlights. (1) E-commerce posted a strong growth of 93% taking its contribution to 2.9%, and (2) modern trade grew 10% led by infrastructure investments. Category-wise performance Hair care (22% of domestic sales). (1) Hair oils segment grew 0.4% yoy; entire category witnessed sharp slowdown. Per management, the category is somewhat discretionary in nature and hence consumers are delaying purchase or consuming less. Sarson Amla and Brahmi Amla recorded double-digit growth. Dabur gained ~50 bps market share in the hair oil category. The management sees a lot of opportunity to grow in hair oil, especially in coconut oil where Dabur is a small marginal player. The company wants to regain market share lost in the past few years. The company is also looking to launch a few brands at both the top and bottom end of the market, and (2) shampoo and post wash segment growth decelerated to 5.1% yoy; Vatika shampoo bottle portfolio is doing well. Oral care (18% of domestic sales). Oral care segment grew 8.5% yoy led by (1) 9.5% growth of Dabur Red toothpaste aided by market share gains, and (2) Babool growth recovered to 5% yoy. The company is refocusing on tooth powder segment and targets to bridge the gap with the market leader. Lal Dant Manjan witnessed strong growth of 10.4%. The management highlighted that they have superior margin in the segment. OTC & Ethicals (9% of domestic sales). OTC category grew 5.5% yoy led by Honitus and Ethicals portfolio (+2.7% off a high base of 17.4%). Dabur has a strong pipeline of products in this segment. The company seeks to make Dabur a ‘one-stop’ shop for Ayurvedic products. They are also expanding their distribution reach with plans to enhance presence in the Allopathy chemist channels. Health supplements (17% of domestic sales) posted 12.2% yoy growth aided by double-digit growth in Chyawanprash. Management said that the competitive intensity in the segment is benign and it has gained market share by 315 bps yoy to about 64%. Dabur has expanded distribution of the sugar-free variant of Chyawanprash. The company has also planned several initiatives for its Glucose-D product. A few new launches in this segment are also planned. Home care (8% of domestic sales).
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