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VOLTAS Uncertainty Prevails

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VOLTAS Uncertainty Prevails RESULT UPDATE VOLTAS Uncertainty prevails India Equity Research| Engineering and Capital Goods Voltas’ (VOLT) Q1FY14 numbers disappointed with flat revenue growth. EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS Electro Mechanical Projects & Services (EMPS) business declined and Absolute Rating HOLD reported EBIT loss (last seen in Q3FY04) due to cost overruns in its Rating Relative to Sector Performer international operations. Revenue growth was also muted in Unitary Risk Rating Relative to Sector Low Sector Relative to Market Underweight Cooling Product (UCP) and Engineering Products & Services (EPS) at 4% each. EBTIDA margin dropped 200bps to 3.8% despite improvement in UCP and EPS segments. PAT dropped 48% led by weak operating MARKET DATA (R: VOLT.BO, B: VOLT IN) performance. We cut our FY14E and FY15E earnings by 13% each as we CMP : INR 70 trim margin estimate by 60bps each given the likely cost overruns in Target Price : INR 80 international projects in addition to margin pressure. VOLT has finally 52-week range (INR) : 139 / 69 seen some traction in order intake from Middle East but margins are Share in issue (mn) : 330.9 likely to remain under stress. Thus, we maintain ‘HOLD’ with revised M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 23/ 396 target price of INR80 (INR92 earlier). Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 1,686.6 EMPS loss hits margins; UCP, EPS growth slow SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) VOLT reported flat revenues of INR16bn. EMPS revenue declined 7%, while for UCP and Current Q4FY13 Q3FY13 EPS, growth was a mere 4% each. The growth in UCP was affected by early monsoon Promoters * 30.1 30.1 30.1 even as secondary sales growth was strong at 34%. Operating profitability was MF's, FI's & BK’s 25.6 25.4 25.7 FII's 18.1 18.5 21.6 significantly marred by cost overruns owing to delays in the ongoing international projects that led EMPS reporting EBIT loss. UCP and EPS saw margin expand due to Others 26.1 25.9 22.5 price hikes and one-offs respectively. At INR404mn, PAT declined 48% YoY led by weak * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) operating performance and higher interest costs. PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Order backlog drops 17% as international book dip 41% EW Capital Stock Nifty Backlog declined 17% to INR38.1bn as inflows, at INR6.5bn, dropped 15%. VOLT has Goods Index been witnessing gradual decline in international orders which were down 41% even 1 month (16.9) (8.7) 6.0 though domestic backlog improved 10%. The silver lining is the recent INR 2.8bn order 3 months (20.5) (10.4) (1.6) from Qatar towards FIFA World Cup in addition to INR5.4bn orders in the pipeline. 12 months (37.4) 2.4 (3.9) Outlook and valuations: testing times to continue; maintain ‘HOLD’ While the business environment in UCP and EPS remain stable, Middle East continues to be sluggish with delays/deferrals seen. High competitive intensity continued to multiply VOLT’s margin woes. The stock is trading at 10.8x and 9.5x FY14E and FY15E, respectively. We maintain ‘HOLD/SP’ with a revised target price of INR80. Rahul Gajare +91 22 4063 5561 Financials (Consolidated) (INR mn) [email protected] Year to March Q1FY14 Q1FY13 % change Q4FY13 % change FY13 FY14E FY15E Amit Mahawar Net revenues 16,033 16,168 (0.8) 15,971 0.4 55,310 61,571 65,700 +91 22 4040 7451 EBITDA 614 939 (34.6) 831 (26.0) 2,452 3,039 3,563 [email protected] Adj. net profit 404 780 (48.3) 756 (46.6) 1,957 2,148 2,444 Swarnim Maheshwari Dil. EPS (INR) 1.2 2.4 (48.3) 2.3 (46.6) 5.9 6.5 7.4 +91 22 4040 7418 Diluted P/E (x) 11.8 10.8 9.5 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 8.9 7.3 6.4 ROAE (%) 12.6 12.6 12.9 August 16, 2013 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods Segmental performance: UPC surprises positively, EPS stable • EMPS revenue declined 7% to INR6.9bn as delays, mainly from international operations continued to mar execution. It reported EBIT loss of INR265mn, i.e. negative EBIT margin of 3.8% during the quarter. The last time the company reported EBIT loss in EMPS was in Q3FY04. • Revenue growth was muted at 4% in EPS at INR1.1bn. The company has seen strong traction in its textile machinery, mining and construction businesses in the face of uncertainties. The company saw strong pick up in profitability as EBIT margin stood at 27.8%, led by one-off gains due to certain claims received during the quarter. • In UCP, the company grew by a mere 4% to INR7.9bn as the growth was affected due to early monsoon. The company however, highlighted strong growth in secondary sales (sales from dealers to end consumers). The company has been able to sustain its no. 1 market position with improved market share at 20.9% in June 2013 despite heightened competition and subdued consumer sentiments. Margins improved sharply by 160bps YoY to 10.0% on the back of price hikes taken earlier. Conference call: Key highlights • The company reiterated that overall profitability would remain under pressure due weak macros and customer delays. • In the EMPS segment, new orders are being booked at 4-5% margins with few coming in at ~7% levels. The company has bagged order for INR2.8bn from Middle East in August 2013 and is likely to bag another set of orders worth INR5.4bn, indicating some pickup in order flows from the region. Further, the company indicated that Saudi Arabian market is likely to remain tough as it is looking at higher localisation. • In UCP, AC sales have were fairly good till May13 on the back of intense summers, however, early monsoon affected sales in the month of June 2013. The company is confident of taking on competition, which have turned more aggressive. The company doesn’t expect Q1FY14 margins (10.0%) to be remain sustainable and expects 7-8% EBIT margins in the UCP segment during FY14E. • The EPS business has seen some traction in the international operations. In textile, VOLT is looking at increasing its presence in the post-spinning market as it is close to finalise certain new partnerships. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Voltas Table 1: Segmental performance Year to March Q1FY14 Q1FY13 % change Q4FY13 % change FY13 FY12 % change Revenue (INR mn) Electro mechanical projects (EMPS) 6,930 7,413 (6.5) 8,834 (21.6) 31,995 31,832 0.5 Engineering products & services (EPS) 1,112 1,066 4.3 1,039 7.0 4,311 4,121 4.6 Unitary cooling products (UCP) 7,867 7,544 4.3 5,855 34.4 18,356 15,388 19.3 Others 112 104 7.7 198.2 (43.7) 502 427 17.4 Total revenue 16,020 16,126 (0.7) 15,926 0.6 55,163 51,768 6.6 Segment revenue mix (%) Electro mechanical projects (EMPS) 43.3 46.0 55.5 58.0 61.5 Engineering products & services (EPS) 6.9 6.6 6.5 7.8 8.0 Unitary cooling products (UCP) 49.1 46.8 36.8 33.3 29.7 Others 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 EBIT (INR mn) Electro mechanical projects (EMPS) (265) 332 (179.6) 40 (754.7) 513 1,724 (70.2) Engineering products & services (EPS) 309 194 59.3 168 83.8 838 687 22.0 Unitary cooling products (UCP) 788 632 24.6 747 5.4 1,727 1,298 33.1 Others (3) 29 (109.0) 4 (174.3) 342(93.3) Total EBIT 829 1,187 (30.2) 959 (13.5) 3,081 3,751 (17.9) EBIT margin (%) Electro mechanical projects (EMPS) (3.8) 4.5 0.5 1.6 5.4 Engineering products & services (EPS) 27.8 18.2 16.2 19.4 16.7 Unitary cooling products (UCP) 10.0 8.4 12.8 9.4 8.4 Others (2.3) 28.0 1.8 0.6 9.7 EBIT mix (%) Electro mechanical projects (EMPS) (31.9) 28.0 4.2 16.7 46.0 Engineering products & services (EPS) 37.2 16.3 17.5 27.2 18.3 Unitary cooling products (UCP) 95.0 53.2 77.9 56.1 34.6 Others (0.3) 2.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 Source: Company, Edelweiss research Chart 1: EMPS segment – Execution delays and cost overruns hurt profitability 10,000 12.9 8,000 8.6 6,000 4.3 (%) (INR mn) (INR 4,000 0.0 2,000 (4.3) 0 (8.6) Q105 Q305 Q106 Q306 Q107 Q307 Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Revenue EBIT Margin Source: Company, Edelweiss research 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Engineering and Capital Goods Chart 2: UCP segment – Margin improvement on back of price hikes 9,000 16.0 7,200 8.0 5,400 0.0 (%) (INR mn) (INR 3,600 (8.0) 1,800 (16.0) 0 (24.0) Q105 Q305 Q106 Q306 Q107 Q307 Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Revenue EBIT Margin Chart 3: EPS segment – Margin improved due to certain one-offs 2,000 45.0 1,600 36.0 1,200 27.0 (%) (INR mn) (INR 800 18.0 400 9.0 0 0.0 Q105 Q305 Q106 Q306 Q107 Q307 Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Revenue EBIT Margin Chart 4: Order book break down and order inflow trend 60,000 20,000 48,000 16,000 36,000 12,000 (INR mn) (INR (INR mn) (INR 24,000 8,000 12,000 4,000 0 0 Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 International Backlog Domestic Backlog Order Inflow (RHS) Source: Company, Edelweiss research 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited Voltas Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q1FY14 Q1FY13 % change Q4FY13 % change FY13 FY14E FY15E Net revenues 16,033 16,168 (0.8) 15,971 0.4 55,310 61,571 65,700 Staff costs 1,649 1,645 0.2 1,578 4.5 6,325 6,996 7,739 Direct costs 12,234 12,049 1.5 12,324 (0.7) 41,670 45,978 48,468 Other expenses 1,536 1,535 0.0 1,239 24.0 4,862 5,558 5,931 Total expenditure 15,419 15,229 1.2 15,141 1.8 52,858 58,532 62,137 EBITDA 614 939 (34.6) 831 (26.0) 2,452 3,039 3,563 Depreciation 61 73 (17.1) 60 0.8 278 296 335 EBIT 554 866 (36.0) 771 (28.1) 2,174 2,744 3,228 Other income 221 349 (36.7) 126 75.1 901 882 875 Interest 179 121 48.4 120 49.7 398 498 543 Profit before tax 595 1,106 (46.2) 144 313.3 2,798 3,128 3,560 Tax 190 316 (40.0) 54 250.9 728 970 1,104 Core profit 405 790 (48.7) 90 350.8 2,071 2,158 2,457 Extraordinary items (1) 11 NA (633) NA 121 - - Minority interest 2 2 46.7 (1) (414.3) (7) 11 12 Share in profit from associates Net profit 403 788 (48.9) 91 344.9 2,078 2,148 2,444 Adjusted net profit 404 780 (48.3) 756 (46.6) 1,957 2,148 2,444 Equity capital (FV INR 1) 331 331 331 331 331 331 No.
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