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Titan Company Good Performance in a Tough Environment Stock Update Stock Titan Company Good performance in a tough environment Stock Update Stock Sector: Consumer Discretionary The revenue of Titan Company (Titan) grew by ~16% y-o-y driven by strong growth of 20% in the watches business and ~13% growth in the jewellery Company Update business. Flat margins in the Jewellery business; decline in the margins of the watches business and sustained losses in the eyewear business Change led to a 70 BPS decline in OPM (on a comparable basis). Mr. C K Venkat á has been appointed as the managing director of the company and would Reco: Buy á lead the management team. Subsidiaries including Titan Engineering CMP: Rs. 1,038 and Automation and Caratlane registered strong performance with over á 50% growth in revenue and also witnessed improvement in profitability. Price Target: Rs. 1,260 The management is confident of reporting strong performance in a stable á á Upgrade No change Downgrade macro environment. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. á á Key positives Company details The watches business posted strong revenue growth of 20% aided by Market cap: Rs. 92,152 cr part execution of an institutional order to TCS 52-week high/low: Rs. 1341/732 The jewellery business posted decent performance with ~13% growth (April-May growth was 19%). NSE volume: (No of 23.2 lakh Subsidiaries registered strong performance with over 50% revenue shares) growth and strong improvement in profitability. BSE code: 500114 Key negatives Margins of the watches business declined by 90 BPS to 17.9% due to one- NSE code: TITAN time business associate meet (BAM) expenses of Rs. 40 crore. Sharekhan code: TITAN Eyewear business registered losses of Rs. 7 crore during the quarter. Free float: (No of Our Call 41.8 cr shares) Valuation: We have trimmed our earnings estimates for FY2020 and FY2021 to factor in lower than earlier expected growth in the jewellery Shareholding (%) business and lower than earlier expected margins. The spike in the jewellery prices and slowdown in the consumption environment will Promoters 52.9 affect the performance of the jewellery business in the near term but the FII 20.3 management is confident in recovering the performance in H2FY2020. We DII 6.7 expect Titan’s revenue and PAT to clock a CAGR of 16.5% and 17.5% over Others 20.1 FY2019-21. The stock has corrected by ~22% from its recent high which has factored in the modest performance expected in FY2020. We expect growth to accelerate in FY2021. We maintain our Buy recommendation on Price chart the stock with revised price target of R.s 1,260 (valuing it at 37x its FY2021E 1400 EV/EBIDTA). 1300 1200 Key Risks 1100 1000 Increased gold prices: Any further increase in gold prices would affect the 900 profitability of the jewellery segment and earnings growth of the company. 800 700 600 18 18 19 19 - - - - Apr Dec Aug Aug Valuation (consolidated) Rs cr Particulars FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Revenue 15,946 19,592 22,632 26,575 OPM (%) 10.2 11.0 10.6 11.2 Price performance Adjusted PAT 1,124 1,519 1,688 2,094 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m % YoY growth 40.2 35.1 11.1 24.1 Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 12.6 17.1 19.0 23.6 Absolute -18.5 -9.0 -2.4 13.3 P/E (x) 82.4 60.8 54.6 44.0 P/B (x) 18.1 15.2 12.7 10.5 Relative to EV/EBIDTA (x) 55.8 42.1 37.5 30.1 -12.5 -4.1 -3.4 14.5 Sensex RoNW (%) 24.1 27.2 25.4 26.1 RoCE (%) 32.3 37.2 34.6 35.7 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company, Sharekhan Estimates August 06, 2019 2 Stock Update Stock Decent performance in tough time In Q1FY2020, Titan’s consolidated revenue grew by 15.7% y-o-y to Rs. 5,151.1crore driven by ~20% growth in the watches business, 13% growth in the jewellery business and above 50% revenue growth in key subsidiaries. Gross margins stood almost flat at 27.4%. Flat margins in the jewellery business; decline in margins of the watches business and sustained losses in the eyewear business led to 70 BPS decline in OPM (on a comparable basis). During the quarter, there was a one-time expense of Rs 40 crore towards BAM affecting margins of the watches business. Operating profit on a comparable basis grew by 8.2% y-o-y to Rs. 522.6 crore. Higher other income at Rs. 57.1 crore in Q1FY2020 as against Rs. 36.1 crore in Q1FY2019 led to 11.6% growth in adjusted PAT to Rs. 365.9 crore during the quarter. The impact of shift to Ind AS 116 was limited to Rs. 2 crore. Jewellery business – Decent quarter In Q1FY2020, the jewellery business recorded strong revenue growth of 13.3% y-o-y to Rs. 4,047.4crore with April and May business growing by 19% on the back of strong demand. June was quite soft with 9% growth in revenue. On a consolidated basis, revenue grew by 14.6% y-o-y to Rs. 4,164.1 crore. EBIT margin (before exceptional items) stood flat at 10.9% in Q1FY2020. Studded jewellery contributed to about 25% of overall jewellery sales during the quarter. Customer deposits against ‘Golden Harvest scheme’ have reached the regulatory limit which is 25% of company’s net worth. Tanishq retail stores registered a value growth of 16% with like-to-like growth of 10% during the quarter. The company added 12 Tanishq stores in Q1FY2020 (34,000 sq. ft added to reach 1.12mn sq. ft). Management expects to end H1FY2020 with 30 store additions and is likely to add another 30-40 stores in H2FY2020. Management expects the jewellery business to be soft in H1FY2020 (growth likely to be in single digits in Q2FY2020) and could see recovery in H2FY2020 on the back of festive and wedding season. Watches business – Strong revenue growth; margins dip on a y-o-y basis The watches business delivered strong performance in Q1FY2020 with revenue growing by 20% partly aided by part execution of a large institutional order from Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) of about Rs. 56 crore. World of Titan registered a value growth of 6% largely driven by like-to-like growth of 6%. Margins of the watches business were down by 90 BPS to 17.9% due to a one-time business associate meet (BAM) expense of Rs. 40 crore. Titan added 2 World of Titan, 3 Fastrack and 5 Helios stores in Q1FY2020 on a net basis. We expect the watches business to maintain double-digit revenue growth in the coming quarters. Eyewear business – Continues to make losses at EBIT level. For Q1FY2020, the revenue of the eyewear business grew by 13% y-o-y to Rs. 148.1 crore driven by strong double-digit volume growth. However, the growth was moderated due to price discounts offered during the activation period. Titan Eye+ retail stores have registered strong value growth of 20% y-o-y driven by 14% like-to-like sales growth. The business reported EBIT loss of ~Rs. 11 crore due to lower gross profits on account of activation, continuing investments on the brand through advertising and expenses incurred on business associate meet during the quarter. 19 stores were added in Q1FY2020, adding 12,000 sq. ft. of retail space, on a net basis. Other businesses – Caratlane leads the growth Titan Engineering and Automation Ltd (TEAL), which is a 100 % owned subsidiary, registered strong performance with revenue growth of 75% y-o-y on account of strong growth in Aerospace and defence and automation solution business. The business registered a PBIT of Rs. 15 crore in Q1FY2020 as against Rs. 2 crore in Q1FY2019. Caratlane (69.5% owned subsidiary) recorded revenue growth of 60% y-o-y in Q1FY2020 primarily due to strong growth in both offline and online channels, the offline channel witnessing better growth due to network expansion. The business is continuously narrowing its losses with EBIT loss standing at Rs. 5 crore in Q1FY2020 as against Rs. 11 crore in Q1FY2019. Focusing on its omni channel strategy, Caratlane added 8 stores to its network in Q1FY2020, taking the total store count to 63. August 06, 2019 3 Stock Update Stock Fragrances & Taneira continue to scale up Skinn remained the best seller in its category in departmental chain stores. Focus was on small packs to grow the category by bringing in first time buyers. Taneira added 1 store in Hyderabad taking the total count to 5. The brand launched ‘1000 Summer Memories’ collection of cotton sarees at very affordable price points to drive customer walk-ins and build the right perception of the brand being affordable. Results (Consolidated) Rs cr Particulars Q1FY20 Q1FY19 Y-o-Y (%) Q4FY19 Q-o-Q (%) Total Revenue 5151.1 4451.0 15.7 4888.8 5.4 Total operating cost 4577.5 3968.2 15.4 4360.3 5.0 Operating profit 573.6 482.9 18.8 528.5 8.5 Other income 57.1 36.1 58.0 56.3 1.4 Interest & other financial cost 33.9 10.9 - 12.5 - Depreciation 76.0 40.7 86.4 40.8 86.0 Profit Before Tax 520.9 467.4 11.5 531.5 -2.0 Tax 156.0 138.8 12.5 127.2 22.6 Adjusted PAT before MI 364.9 328.6 11.0 404.2 -9.7 Extraordinary item 0.0 0.0 - 56.0 - Minority Interest (MI) -0.9 -0.5 - 0.0 - Reported PAT 363.9 328.1 10.9 348.2 4.5 Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 4.1 3.7 10.9 4.6 -10.0 BPS BPS GPM (%) 27.4 27.4 3 27.9 -50 OPM (%) 11.1 10.8 29 10.8 33 Source: Company; Sharekhan Research Comparable Result Snapshot (Consolidated) Rs cr Particulars Q1FY20 Q1FY19 Y-o-Y (%) Q4FY19 Q-o-Q (%) Total Revenue 5151.1 4451.0 15.7 4888.8 5.4 Operating profit 522.6 482.9 8.2 528.5 -1.1 Adjusted PAT 366.9 328.6 11.6 404.2 -9.2 Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 4.1 3.7 11.5 4.6 -9.5 BPS BPS GPM (%) 27.4 27.4 3 27.9 -50 OPM (%) 10.1 10.8 -70 10.8 -66 Source: Company; Sharekhan Research Result Snapshot (Standalone) Rs cr Particulars Q1FY20 Q1FY19 Y-o-Y (%) Q4FY19 Q-o-Q (%) Total Revenue 4939.7 4318.9 14.4 4672.1 5.7 Operating profit 565.3 495.3 14.1 455.6 24.1 Adjusted PAT before MI 370.7 349.2 6.2 345.0 7.5 Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 4.2 3.9 6.2 3.9 7.5 BPS BPS GPM (%) 26.8 26.9 - 27.2 -37 OPM (%) 11.4 11.5 - 9.8 169 Source: Company; Sharekhan Research August 06, 2019 4 Stock Update Stock Segmental Revenue) Rs cr Particulars Q1FY20 Q1FY19 Y-o-Y (%) Watches 715 594 20.4 Jewellery 4047 3572 13.3 Eyewear 149 132 13.1 Others/Corporate 85 58 46.8 Standalone 4996 4355 14.7 Caratlane 133 83 60.2 TEAL 95 54 - Others/Consol.
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