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SHELL: ENERGY TRANSITIONS and PORTFOLIO RESILIENCE Disclaimer the ‘New Lens Scenarios’ and ‘A Better Life and a Expressed Or Implied in These Statements

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SHELL: ENERGY TRANSITIONS and PORTFOLIO RESILIENCE Disclaimer the ‘New Lens Scenarios’ and ‘A Better Life and a Expressed Or Implied in These Statements SHELL: ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND PORTFOLIO RESILIENCE Disclaimer The ‘New Lens Scenarios’ and ‘A Better Life and a expressed or implied in these statements. Forward- Healthier Planet’ publications are part of an ongoing looking statements include, among other things, process – scenario-building – used in Shell for more statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal than 40 years to challenge executives’ perspectives Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing on the future business environment. We base them on management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, plausible assumptions and quantification, and they forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward- are designed to stretch management to consider a looking statements are identified by their use of wide range of outlooks, including events that may be terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, only remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, intended to be predictions of likely future events or ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, outcomes, and investors should not rely on them when ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, making an investment decision with regard to Royal ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There Dutch Shell plc securities. are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those It is important to note that Shell’s existing portfolio has results to differ materially from those expressed in the been decades in development. While we believe our forward-looking statements included in this report, portfolio is resilient under a wide range of outlooks, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in including the IEA’s 450 scenario, it includes assets crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand across a spectrum of energy intensities, including for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) some with above average intensity. While we seek drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; to enhance our operations’ average energy intensity (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) through both the development of new projects and environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated divestments, we have no immediate plans to move to a with the identification of suitable potential acquisition net-zero emissions portfolio over our investment horizon properties and targets, and successful negotiation and of 10-20 years. completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject Cautionary Note to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly regulatory developments including regulatory measures and indirectly owns investments are separate legal addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial entities. In this report “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal market conditions in various countries and regions; Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, governmental entities, delays or advancements in the “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement in general or to those who work for them. These for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. expressions are also used where no useful purpose All forward-looking statements contained in this is served by identifying the particular company or report are expressly qualified in their entirety by the companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” cautionary statements contained or referred to in this and “Shell companies” as used in this report refer section. Readers should not place undue reliance on to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward has significant influence but neither control nor joint looking statements contained in this report and should control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct statement speaks only as of the date of this report, May and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a 11, 2016. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update third-party interest. or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In This report contains forward-looking statements light of these risks, results could differ materially from concerning the financial condition, results of operations those stated, implied or inferred from the forward- and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements looking statements contained in this report. other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward- We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in looking statements are statements of future expectations this report that United States Securities and Exchange that are based on management’s current expectations Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including and assumptions and involve known and unknown in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No performance or events to differ materially from those 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. CONTENTS Introduction by Ben van Beurden, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell 1 1 Energy Transitions and the Climate Challenge 5 1a Growth in energy demand 7 1b The energy transition will require long-term vision and investments 8 1c Oil and gas remain important primary energy sources 12 2 Shell and the Energy Transition 15 2a A strong voice in the energy debate 16 2b The energy mix 19 2c Reducing our emissions 20 2d A leader in natural gas and liquefied natural gas 20 2e Investing in new energies 23 2f A leader in carbon capture and storage (CCS) 24 3 Our portfolio: strength, diversity and resilience 27 3a Global portfolio and capital allocation 29 3b Managing asset-level resilience to climate change 29 3c Portfolio resilience in a low-carbon world 30 3d The IEA 450 scenario 33 3e Exploration and ‘stranded assets’ 34 Closing comment 36 1 INTRODUCTION By Ben van Beurden CEO of Royal Dutch Shell Shell has long recognised both the importance of There are questions for society today about whether climate change and the critical role energy must play the pace of change is sufficient. in enabling a decent quality of life for people across the world. The big challenge, for society and for a In this report, we seek to address the second company like Shell, is how to provide much more question: Shell’s approach and portfolio resilience energy while at the same time significantly reducing to the energy transition, and our strategy to succeed carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. through changing times. We describe the key drivers in the energy mix and set out how Shell is investing in We hear broadly two questions from investors and low-carbon energy – “new energies”– while reflecting commentators on this crucial topic. How does Shell on the wide range of business choices we can make view the energy transition to a low-carbon future? until 2035, and beyond. And how is the company positioned for the changes that are to come? Shell has a track record of successfully adapting our business model, and delivering profitable growth, In parallel with this report, we have recently over more than 100 years. Our assessment is that published a new scenarios study that examines the there will continue to be commercial opportunities for plausible pathways needed to achieve net-zero CO2 Shell in oil and gas for decades to come, providing emissions by the second half of this century. This study a foundation to position the company successfully looks in depth at the first of the two questions. You can for the energy transition to a lower-carbon system. find it at www.shell.com/scenarios. To summarise, In the near term, this means growing our natural gas a transition to a low-carbon future is both desirable, business, further improving our company’s energy and possible. However, this will need strong policy efficiency, and adapting our portfolio. Over the choices and actions, and continued investment in oil longer term, we plan to develop a new and profitable and gas, as well as rapid growth in lower-carbon fuels. lower-carbon new energies business. 2 TRANSITIONS IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY MIX 100% Oil and gas 20% 80% 40% 60% 1970 2010 60% 2050 40% 80% 1950 20% Coal 2100 1900 100% 1850 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Renewables, Biomass and Nuclear Mountains Scenario Shell has used scenarios analysis for more than Oceans Scenario 40 years to challenge our perspectives of the IEA 450 Pathway to 2040 future business environment. They sit alongside the History scenarios produced by independent bodies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA). Shell's New Lens Scenarios (2013) describe two potential pathways – Mountains and Oceans – that could deliver the energy necessary for the global economy, while achieving net-zero CO2 emissions from energy by the end of the century. Source: Graph based on L. Barreto, et al., Int. J. H2 Energy 28 (2003) 267. Data prior to 1960 was taken from the IIASA PFU database (Version 0.0.2) https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/PFUDB; data 1960-2014: IEA and Shell; data 2015-2100: Shell NLS scenarios.
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