Jyrki Luukkanen – Jarmo Vehmas – Suvisanna Mustonen– Francesca Allievi – Anne Karjalainen – Mikko Värttö & Maria Ahoniemi FINNISH ENERGY INDUSTRIES – ENERGY SCENARIOS AND VISIONS FOR THE FUTURE Background Report FFRC eBOOK 10/2009 Jyrki Luukkanen Jarmo Vehmas Research Professor, Docent Senior Researcher Suvisanna Mustonen Francesca Allievi Researcher Researcher Anne Karjalainen Mikko Värttö Research Assistant Research Assistant Maria Ahoniemi Research Assistant Copyright © 2009 Authors & Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics ISBN 978•951•564•980•5 ISSN 1797•132 Finland Futures Research Centre Turku School of Economics Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, FI•20500 Turku Korkeavuorenkatu 25 A 2, FI•00130 Helsinki Pinninkatu 47, FI•33100 Tampere Tel. +358 2 481 4530 Fax +358 2 481 4630 www.tse.fi/tutu tutu•
[email protected],
[email protected] 2 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 6 2. GLOBAL MEGETRENDS................................................................................................ 8 2.1. Review of selected Global Energy Scenarios ....................................................... 8 2.1.1. World Energy Council: Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050...... 8 2.1.2. IEA: World Energy Outlook 2008 .......................................................... 10 2.1.3. Greenpeace: The Energy [R]evolution ................................................... 29 2.1.4. State of the Future 2007, Global Energy Scenarios